Three key areas that could lead to double digit wins

[tbsteel]

In a two year sample size (2019 and 2022), the Steelers without Big Ben have shown they can be competitive but have mostly remained in that NFL purgatory: too good to bottom out and justify a complete rebuild, but not good enough to be anything more than a fringe challenger whose ceiling is 9-10 wins and a wildcard team.

Overall, I like the moves they've made in FA and the draft this year and in many ways feel like we'll have more quality depth this year compared to last year, especially in the trenches. From ownership, to Tomlin and the coaching staff, and to Khan/Weidl, it seems like the organization is totally in sync in how they want to build the team, which when you have that consistency and everyone working towards the same thing, that's obviously a good thing. There are plenty of organizations where ownership, the front office, and coaching staff are all on different pages (i.e. the Texans), and that's when you see teams unravel and just bottom out.

But what can get us over the hump in Pickett's second year? With Matt Canada back again and our overall play style, it's hard to envision a completely transformed team unless Pickett just explodes. And while I like how he finished the year and the growth he showed as a rookie, it's hard to envision some huge breakout is on the way. Sure, that would be awesome, but also honestly unexpected. So what gets us to breakthrough NFL purgatory and get up to 11 or 12 wins and into the playoffs? Three key areas for me:


1) Calvin Austin making his mark - Austin offers a skillset and natural abilities that no one else on the roster has, and all the word out of Latrobe was that he was standing out much like Pickens was prior to his foot injury. The projected top 3 WRs of DJ, Pickens, and Robinson doesn't look like a group that screams explosive plays and big YAC numbers. That group looks more like some chain movers and occasional deep shots that are mostly contested. Austin is so key because he's the antithesis of that. He's a guy that could take one of those Matt Canada jet sweeps with Broderick Jones out in front on a pull and house it. If Austin can be another mid round home run WR for the Steelers that can offer some key explosive plays on an offense that otherwise looks like a plodder, it can totally elevate the offense and team to another level. Please stay healthy and show us what you've got, kid.

2) A rebound season for Chris Boswell - Last year was Boswell's worst season since 2018 and the second worst of his career. He's been battling the injury bug, but he's just got to be better. At the top of his game, he's as good as anyone at his position. The Steelers were 6-5 in one score games last year. First, that's a lot of one score games, and second, that's obviously not a great record in those games. Given our play style, a return to his '19-'21 form could be a big key in bumping up that record in one score games a notch or two and that leading us to double digit wins.

3) Filling the Cam Sutton void - To me, the biggest hole left on the team coming out of the draft is at slot CB. Cam Sutton had grown into such a versatile weapon for us and was just a naturally sticky cover man, especially inside, with just smooth and quick footwork. The signing of Chandon Sullivan, who per PFF gave up 72 receptions on 91 targets for over 800 yards and a QB rating allowed approaching 110 last year does not inspire confidence. Is the answer currently on our roster? I don't know, it's tough to see today. But unless the Steelers are a top defensive unit in the NFL, and don't become a team that can be consistently picked apart over the middle of the field, it's hard to envision us ascending beyond a fringe competitor.

What do you all think?

[LakecrestSteeler]

In a two year sample size (2019 and 2022), the Steelers without Big Ben have shown they can be competitive but have mostly remained in that NFL purgatory: too good to bottom out and justify a complete rebuild, but not good enough to be anything more than a fringe challenger whose ceiling is 9-10 wins and a wildcard team.

Overall, I like the moves they've made in FA and the draft this year and in many ways feel like we'll have more quality depth this year compared to last year, especially in the trenches. From ownership, to Tomlin and the coaching staff, and to Khan/Weidl, it seems like the organization is totally in sync in how they want to build the team, which when you have that consistency and everyone working towards the same thing, that's obviously a good thing. There are plenty of organizations where ownership, the front office, and coaching staff are all on different pages (i.e. the Texans), and that's when you see teams unravel and just bottom out.

But what can get us over the hump in Pickett's second year? With Matt Canada back again and our overall play style, it's hard to envision a completely transformed team unless Pickett just explodes. And while I like how he finished the year and the growth he showed as a rookie, it's hard to envision some huge breakout is on the way. Sure, that would be awesome, but also honestly unexpected. So what gets us to breakthrough NFL purgatory and get up to 11 or 12 wins and into the playoffs? Three key areas for me:


1) Calvin Austin making his mark - Austin offers a skillset and natural abilities that no one else on the roster has, and all the word out of Latrobe was that he was standing out much like Pickens was prior to his foot injury. The projected top 3 WRs of DJ, Pickens, and Robinson doesn't look like a group that screams explosive plays and big YAC numbers. That group looks more like some chain movers and occasional deep shots that are mostly contested. Austin is so key because he's the antithesis of that. He's a guy that could take one of those Matt Canada jet sweeps with Broderick Jones out in front on a pull and house it. If Austin can be another mid round home run WR for the Steelers that can offer some key explosive plays on an offense that otherwise looks like a plodder, it can totally elevate the offense and team to another level. Please stay healthy and show us what you've got, kid.

2) A rebound season for Chris Boswell - Last year was Boswell's worst season since 2018 and the second worst of his career. He's been battling the injury bug, but he's just got to be better. At the top of his game, he's as good as anyone at his position. The Steelers were 6-5 in one score games last year. First, that's a lot of one score games, and second, that's obviously not a great record in those games. Given our play style, a return to his '19-'21 form could be a big key in bumping up that record in one score games a notch or two and that leading us to double digit wins.

3) Filling the Cam Sutton void - To me, the biggest hole left on the team coming out of the draft is at slot CB. Cam Sutton had grown into such a versatile weapon for us and was just a naturally sticky cover man, especially inside, with just smooth and quick footwork. The signing of Chandon Sullivan, who per PFF gave up 72 receptions on 91 targets for over 800 yards and a QB rating allowed approaching 110 last year does not inspire confidence. Is the answer currently on our roster? I don't know, it's tough to see today. But unless the Steelers are a top defensive unit in the NFL, and don't become a team that can be consistently picked apart over the middle of the field, it's hard to envision us ascending beyond a fringe competitor.

What do you all think?

I agree with everything you said. I think Austin has a skillset potential that nobody in the league has if it is realized.

The Sutton replacement is going to be analogous to the Hilton replacement. We lost Hilton and dropped in talent overall, and on top of that our rival got better because of him. At least Sutton is Detroit so we are 50% of the way there. Hopefully the off-season maneuvers money ball his loss into an overall gain in talent and depth at the slot DB.

Agree on Boz too. If I recall he had some stinker kickoffs too. I think he regains form…definitely injury related.

I actually kind of expect Pickett to explode in wins. I suspect he will not have gaudy QB numbers at all, but he may end up being MVP (not literally through team votes), but I could see him improving immensely on the little things and as you state with the organization seemingly more in sync than previous years, I could see Pickett bringing their overall strategy to fruition with the little things…. ball handling skills like fakes, pumps, sleight of hand QB fundamentals, and then solid QBR during the golden 8 minutes, last 4 of the first half and first 4 of the second half, and then also in the last 5-6 minutes of the game. He does that and that could be an extra 4 wins on top of last year.

[Kodiak.]

Once again, I fell for this belief system many times with a HOF QB in his prime, only to be disappointed.

The only thing the talent of the roster truly impacts is hard hard NHALS has to work for 9 wins.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Once again, I fell for this belief system many times with a HOF QB in his prime, only to be disappointed.

The only thing the talent of the roster truly impacts is hard hard NHALS has to work for 9 wins.

Come on Kodiak…take a couple sips! There is carbonation in the Kool Aid this time!

There has been pretty significant change. Maybe this time it will be the small snowball at the top of the snow-capped peak

Don’t forget you can get players that don’t put up with mediocrity and do anything to prevent it.

Of course only time will tell.

[W&M_Steeler]

Once again, I fell for this belief system many times with a HOF QB in his prime, only to be disappointed.

The only thing the talent of the roster truly impacts is hard hard NHALS has to work for 9 wins.

Tomlin is more comfortable with a defensive-lead team. He doesn't have a clue about offense. He'd rather have the 2019 Steelers than the 2017 Steelers, and he can do a better job with the former than the latter. If the 2023 Steelers D is as good as 2019, and if Kenny is better than Mason / Duck, then Tomlin might overachieve. Of course, in the AFC, that probably means winning Wildcard weekend then getting smoked by the Chiefs, so it is hard to get too enthusiastic.

[Scunge]

You know it is funny but I had heard rumblings that the Steelers were not happy with the special teams unit, and no I am not talking about Harvin.

Many want Harvin out of town but in my mind it was Boz and Kuntz that really severely underperformed last season. Now they have brought in that Mexican kid, Alfredo Gachuz Lozada, who has a monster leg, 60+ yard range AND brought in former Raven TE Nick Boyle at a recent tryout for longsnapping.

ALL of the special teams starters will be competing this summer for their job, not just Harvin.

I have come around to the idea that having a dedicated slot CB and expecting him to be this magical unicorn that can match up against a quick slot WR, a huge TE, and do great run support is folly. Why not have 2 or 3 options that allow you to get favorable matchups?? A combination of Kazee, Peterson, Minkah, even rookie Cory Trice, is all depends on down and distance and who they have to cover. Why couldn't Trice be used as that tall CB to matchup on a TE as we did with Cortez Allen's rookie season?

But if you have a dedicated Mike Hilton then teams know exactly what they have to do to exploit him. With a committee approach, doesn't it make it more difficult for offenses?? They have to prepare more and don't know for sure who may be out there at any given time. I see us being able to disguise things more, confuse QBs more, not being so damn predictable.

Why couldn't Levi Wallace be used more as a slot option too?? Most of his game is technique and intelligence, he is not a fluid mover but he finds ways to get the job done. You look at how often we do inverted coverages, where the Safety comes up and the CB moves to the backend, Wallace can do that, and he is a ballhawk, had 4 INTs and 13 passes defensed last year. You look at what he gave up in coverage, only 53% of passes completed and a passer rating of 73.

[franco32]

You forgot the biggest key. Will someone else design and potentially call the plays other than Matt Canada. We do have some new offensive assistants. Can they design route trees better than what we see in High School? Can Canada call a decent game instead of just run-run-pass?

I get what Khan and Weidl are doing. They don't think we will win shootouts so they are going to try to pound people into submission. But, our opponents will stack up against the run, so Kenny has to be given the reigns to call play action and audible out of predictable run situations.

[yygy]

1. OL. Even with Canada’s remedial pro offense if the o line can take over games they’ll be competitive. Also hoping they can show some explosiveness but willing to start with the basics. Weidl made huge strides. Pass game starts with protection is his philosophy. Good to see it taking shoe

2. TJ (and Alex). No mystery TJ is probably worth 2 wins per season. Overall OLB need to stay healthy and disruptive

3. D secondary. One of the most interesting and active units in the off-season. They have some pieces can they put together the puzzle? I think they may have figured something out with their 3 safety look.

Neal replaces Edmunds without too much trouble. It ther are some other interesting permutations. If porter is ready to go they could move Peterson into the safety role they hinted at.

Porter jr—Peterson—Fitzpatrick—Kazee—Wallace

That’s a nice nickel look. When they go to dime they bring Neal back in as the dimebacker.

If they can hit in all these areas it’s a matter of Kenny and everyone else executing