Week 13 DVOA Rankings Surprise

[Boukman]

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa

The Steelers are now #10 in total DVOA: #13 Offense (didn't expect to see this much above 25) and #7 defense.

Theoretically these should climb higher given the upcoming 3 matches with AZ, NE, CIN. Especially if (big if) the offense really is truly improving post-Canada and with Freiermuth back in stride and if the D tightens further with Fitzpatrick and Adams set to return and the practice squad fill ins at ILB and safety get more acclimated.

All of the teams ranked above the Steelers are close to playoff locks except for Buffalo. Not surprisingly the Browns and Jets have the biggest deltas between offense and defense.

[stillthere]

The D has been giving up like 3.5 points in the second half of the last 5 games or something along those lines. I think Matt Williamson was talking about the exact numbers a day or two ago. They are figuring out what teams are doing or attempting and adjusting it seems.

[Smashmouth21]

I’m not surprised

[R_S]

Nice. So pumped they are moving up in the pointless ranking devised by some stat nerd pencil neck. Championship!

[BethlehemSteel]

Rat-packer eh?

A must chart to review for positional fantasy starts !!

[bradshaw2ben]

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/nfl/tools/team-total-dvoa

The Steelers are now #10 in total DVOA: #13 Offense (didn't expect to see this much above 25) and #7 defense.

Theoretically these should climb higher given the upcoming 3 matches with AZ, NE, CIN. Especially if (big if) the offense really is truly improving post-Canada and with Freiermuth back in stride and if the D tightens further with Fitzpatrick and Adams set to return and the practice squad fill ins at ILB and safety get more acclimated.

All of the teams ranked above the Steelers are close to playoff locks except for Buffalo. Not surprisingly the Browns and Jets have the biggest deltas between offense and defense.

It doesn't work like that, exactly. You have to do well vs great teams or dominate bad teams to move your DVOA up. I'm interested to see where it ends up, because I don't think they're close to a top 8 team, let alone 5-6 (the real contenders).

DVOA is all about your deviance from average, so looking at a bar chart gives a better idea where they are. In DVOA terms, they are closer to the middle than the top 5.

[Boukman]

It doesn't work like that, exactly. You have to do well vs great teams or dominate bad teams to move your DVOA up. I'm interested to see where it ends up, because I don't think they're close to a top 8 team, let alone 5-6 (the real contenders).

DVOA is all about your deviance from average, so looking at a bar chart gives a better idea where they are. In DVOA terms, they are closer to the middle than the top 5.
[/quote]
Yeah that line up: they're mid for the season at the bottom of potential playoff teams for sure. I don’t have a subscription for that site but I wonder how much Steelers rankings have changed over the last 4-5 weeks. None of those games were blowouts either way and the offense remained underachieving overall. I think the defense will get better faster with the return to health of key guys. The offense is the wildcard, hopefully we’ll ramp up and see a positive “Pickett’s charge” and unleashing of hell in December.

[BethlehemSteel]

It doesn't work like that, exactly. You have to do well vs great teams or dominate bad teams to move your DVOA up. I'm interested to see where it ends up, because I don't think they're close to a top 8 team, let alone 5-6 (the real contenders).

DVOA is all about your deviance from average, so looking at a bar chart gives a better idea where they are. In DVOA terms, they are closer to the middle than the top 5.

Yeah that line up: they're mid for the season at the bottom of potential playoff teams for sure. I don’t have a subscription for that site but I wonder how much Steelers rankings have changed over the last 4-5 weeks. None of those games were blowouts either way and the offense remained underachieving overall. I think the defense will get better faster with the return to health of key guys. The offense is the wildcard, hopefully we’ll ramp up and see a positive “Pickett’s charge” and unleashing of hell in December.
[/quote]
Let me gather and post it

[BethlehemSteel]

This page lists DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for total defense as well as rushing and passing defense separated. The DVOA system is explained here. All numbers below are adjusted to an average schedule of opponents and an average percentage of fumbles recovered by the defense.

Performance is also adjusted for domes/retractable roof/outdoors. The exceptions are the three columns marked NON-ADJUSTED. Rushing includes all rushing, not just running backs. However, scrambles are considered as pass plays for the purposes of team DVOA.

WEIGHTED DEFENSE is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.

VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (No. 1, lowest variance) to least consistent (No. 32, highest variance).

SCHEDULE represents the average offensive DVOA of all opponents, with teams ranked from hardest schedule to easiest schedule.

Because positive numbers represent more scoring, defense DVOA is better when it is NEGATIVE.

Pre-2023 DVOA may be different from DVOA posted elsewhere on the Internet because of improvements made to the system before the 2023 season.

Opponent adjustments are not included until after Week 4, then gradually increase each week until reaching full strength after Week 10.

(So looking here Steelers are adjusted for current past 6-7
Weeks with more weight than early season weeks. They’ve hovered around 5-12 most of year on DVOA total defense

[Kodiak.]

DVOA is interesting, but IMO while generally pretty good it always spits out one or two anomalies. I'd say PIT is clearly one of those anomalies.

I mean, there's no way this offense has been anything other than bottom quartile. MAYBE adjusted for defenses played they are closer to average, but that's still a huge stretch.

[BethlehemSteel]

I’ll gather the offensive only grid

[Kodiak.]

If you adjust for the craptastic offense and opponent, I could see the defense being #7.

This defense has all the look and feel of the defenses that have gotten boat raced for 40+ the last 4 playoff games.

[zeke5123]

If you adjust for the craptastic offense and opponent, I could see the defense being #7.

This defense has all the look and feel of the defenses that have gotten boat raced for 40+ the last 4 playoff games.

I assume DVOA accounts for turnovers which the Steelers offense has generally avoided. However, a lot of that seems more like luck than skill.

[BethlehemSteel]

9E32FC23-A6C2-49B4-BB8E-5E4096FEEC5F.jpeg (7.37 MiB) Viewed 1861 times

Here are the current offensive DVOA - not combined as was the above defensive one (also not combined) like you see at football outsiders
——————
This page lists DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) for total offense as well as rushing and passing offense separated. The DVOA system is explained here.

All numbers below are adjusted to an average schedule of opponents and an average percentage of fumbles recovered by the offense. Performance is also adjusted for domes/retractable roof/outdoors.

The exceptions are the three columns marked NON-ADJUSTED. Rushing includes all rushing, not just running backs. However, scrambles are considered as pass plays for the purposes of team DVOA.

WEIGHTED OFFENSE is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.

VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (No. 1, lowest variance) to least consistent (No. 32, highest variance).

SCHEDULE represents the average defensive DVOA of all opponents, with teams ranked from hardest schedule to easiest schedule.
Please note that the combination of pass offense and run offense will appear to be higher than total offensive DVOA. This is because offensive DVOA also accounts for aborted snaps, false starts, and delay of game penalties, which are all negative plays but are not considered as either passes or runs.

Pre-2023 DVOA may be different from DVOA posted elsewhere on the Internet because of improvements made to the system before the 2023 season.

Opponent adjustments are not included until after Week 4, then gradually increase each week until reaching full strength after Week 10.

[bradshaw2ben]

Thanks for that @BethlehemSteel

Another thing to keep in mind: if you dominate an offense without its QB, you basically get credit as if their starter were in there. I suspect the success vs the Bengals will mean less as the season goes on. Your SOS in DVOA is the total receipts of everyone you play and how they played against everyone they played. Over a whole season it works out pretty effectively but for a game or two there can be some weird stuff.

[BethlehemSteel]

Found the week by week stats of DVOA defense for Stoolers

[Jizz Mop]

Nice. So pumped they are moving up in the pointless ranking devised by some stat nerd pencil neck. Championship!

This

Who gives a shit if they can’t figure out formations and that 11 people are supposed to play at each snap?

Fucked up team