Draft Speculating

[anpsteel]

Playing inside behind a 2 man front, means you have to not only be able to get off blocks, but anticipate where they are coming from.

This is one of the things that really bothers me, yes, you are absolutely right, we spend far more time in these two man fronts, having two DTs in Cam and say Larry O whereas previously you had a huge NT in between them. Back then it was an Aaron Smith, Casey Hampton and a Kimo Von Oelhoffene/Keisel. They protected our ILBs more back then.

But now?? Now they are more exposed, it is much harder to play the run, stop the run.

Shazier really fit the prototype for playing the run in this subtle change in our defense. He would use that speed and quickness to blow up the run play, force the RB to change plans. Often times Shazier would not come close to making the tackle but instead flush the ball carrier into Vince Williams waiting arms.

Unfortunately, we have had neither a Shazier nor a Williams at ILB these past few years.

I do think the solution is to take college OLBs that are too small to remain as such in the NFL and convert them to off ball/ILBers. Obviously, if a small edge rusher/outside linebacker was getting dominated in the run game, was nothing more than an orange pylon against the run, then a projection to ILB is probably pointless. But when I look at Nolan Smith against the run, when I look at Nick Herbig, I see players that would be great ILBs.

Fair enough

To that point, I often thought Bud Dupree should be moved inside.

[bradshaw2ben]

If a player has one thing they're really good at and it happens to be coverage? You can get by with that. Forbes is good in coverage, Gonzales flashes but he also struggles and given one will be a top 10 pick and the other will be a 2nd rounder, late first if team falls in love with him?

Give me Forbes.

FWIW in coverage: Forbes gave up a 44 passer rating and Gonzales gave up a 75 passer rating in 2022.

When I talked about Forbes being a lot like a Trevon Diggs, it was because of the feast or famine, make a big play, give up a big play demeanor in which he plays the game.

Here are the stats that I was able to find, yes, 14 INTs, 6 returned for touchdowns. His past three years I see Pass Coverage rating of 88.2, 90 and then 42.8 for this past season. Yeah, that 42.8 rating is pretty awesome but the previous two years are not. And what gives me pause is I know how the INTs can skew the pass coverage rating and make it seem better than it really is overall.

If anybody knows a way to get more granular stats on Forbes, it would set my mind more at ease. I want to know how many touchdowns he gave up in coverage, what the yards per catch given up was.

I will use Diggs as an example of my concerns with an elite ballhawking, big play CB. Diggs had that 11 INT, 2 returned for TDs season in 2021, made the Pro Bowl, firsts team All Pro, etc.

He still gave up 54 catches, for 907 yards, 16.8 yards per catch and 4 TDs in pass coverage. Set aside the INTs for a moment, is that what you want to give up in coverage? Nearly 1,000 yards and almost 17 yards per catch against your CB??

Much is made of Diggs INTs and yeah, he has 17 INTs but has given up 12 touchdowns in pass coverage too.

But regardless of all of that, my biggest concern with Forbes is the weight issue. 166 pounds is shocking. I had brought up Samari Rolle as a player very close to that height and weight of 6'1 166, I remember a WR with a similar body type, anybody remember Minnesota's Anthony Carter?

Carter was just under 6', like 5'11" and change and had this very skinny body, might have been 165 pounds. I remember one player joked that they needed to find the rustler that stole Carter's calves. So skinny with no definition whatsoever, legs like pipe cleaners, but man, Carter could play WR and was a 3 time Pro Bowler but that was from 1987-1989.

When I look for similar sized, productive NFL players I have to go back 20 years to find Samari Rolle, or 35 years to find Anthony Carter. 166 pound players that can start and thrive, make Pro Bowls, are rare to find. That is the problem with Emmanuel Forbes.

Is Forbes that Unicorn, that skinny 165 pound player that comes around every 15 or 20 years, like Rolle and Carter? If I am the GM, I am not willing to spend a first or second round pick to find out. If he is there in the 3rd I would take a chance, but DND in rounds 1 and 2 for me.

The Slim Reaper in Philly? 6002 170lbs And that might have been the only day in his life he was 170.

[Scunge]

I will concede that in today's pussified NFL, a skinny 165 pound WR probably has a great chance to succeed and thrive.

All these bullshit rules, can't sack a QB to hard, can't touch a QB, should we outlaw hip tackles, etc. Nothing but pussification!!!!

And with defensive players confused as to even HOW to tackle, they don't practice at all in pads anymore compared to what it USED to be. The NFL has never seen such horrible tackling, such ineffective tackling.

Noll used to say the game was all about blocking and tackling.

But in today's game tackling is optional, just throw into a player with your shoulder and hope they fall down. No form tackling, no wrapping up with your arms, etc.

So, yeah, fuck it, I am cool with drafting Forbes now!!! Let us embrace this new NFL!!! We should trade up from 17 to the top 10 to make sure we get Forbes!!!

[SteelerDayTrader]

Forbes would be lucky to average 10 games a season in Pittsburgh imo

[steelclan]

I will concede that in today's pussified NFL, a skinny 165 pound WR probably has a great chance to succeed and thrive.

All these bullshit rules, can't sack a QB to hard, can't touch a QB, should we outlaw hip tackles, etc. Nothing but pussification!!!!

And with defensive players confused as to even HOW to tackle, they don't practice at all in pads anymore compared to what it USED to be. The NFL has never seen such horrible tackling, such ineffective tackling.

Noll used to say the game was all about blocking and tackling.

But in today's game tackling is optional, just throw into a player with your shoulder and hope they fall down. No form tackling, no wrapping up with your arms, etc.

So, yeah, fuck it, I am cool with drafting Forbes now!!! Let us embrace this new NFL!!! We should trade up from 17 to the top 10 to make sure we get Forbes!!!

Pussified? This is silly garbage. Players will retire from the game a few years from now with serious injuries and that will brain trauma or worse. I watch a lot of Rugby and it is brutally physical game, however, it is not in the same Universe of brutality that is the NFL.

BTW the greatest CB game has ever seen? Couldn't tackle to save his life. If Forbes can cover like he did in college, he would be more than worth our 2nd, 2nd round pick. I'd rather that than a CB that meets all the RAS checkmarks who can't cover a wet paper bag in a hurricane.

[SteelerDayTrader]

I will concede that in today's pussified NFL, a skinny 165 pound WR probably has a great chance to succeed and thrive.

All these bullshit rules, can't sack a QB to hard, can't touch a QB, should we outlaw hip tackles, etc. Nothing but pussification!!!!

And with defensive players confused as to even HOW to tackle, they don't practice at all in pads anymore compared to what it USED to be. The NFL has never seen such horrible tackling, such ineffective tackling.

Noll used to say the game was all about blocking and tackling.

But in today's game tackling is optional, just throw into a player with your shoulder and hope they fall down. No form tackling, no wrapping up with your arms, etc.

So, yeah, fuck it, I am cool with drafting Forbes now!!! Let us embrace this new NFL!!! We should trade up from 17 to the top 10 to make sure we get Forbes!!!

Pussified? This is silly garbage. Players will retire from the game a few years from now with serious injuries and that will brain trauma or worse. I watch a lot of Rugby and it is brutally physical game, however, it is not in the same Universe of brutality that is the NFL.

BTW the greatest CB game has ever seen? Couldn't tackle to save his life. If Forbes can cover like he did in college, he would be more than worth our 2nd, 2nd round pick. I'd rather that than a CB that meets all the RAS checkmarks who can't cover a wet paper bag in a hurricane.

Whoa. Backup several steps

The greatest CB the game has ever seen is Mel Blount. Period. The End.

If there was single player who forced the game to change more than Blount I can’t think of them

Additionally there are several notable CBs with better careers than Sanders and they were fierce tacklers. Dick LeBeau and Rod Woodson being 2 of that group

Prime Time was great. He wasn’t close to the best ever despite what his blowhard ego says

[RemoAZ]

I will concede that in today's pussified NFL, a skinny 165 pound WR probably has a great chance to succeed and thrive.

All these bullshit rules, can't sack a QB to hard, can't touch a QB, should we outlaw hip tackles, etc. Nothing but pussification!!!!

And with defensive players confused as to even HOW to tackle, they don't practice at all in pads anymore compared to what it USED to be. The NFL has never seen such horrible tackling, such ineffective tackling.

Noll used to say the game was all about blocking and tackling.

But in today's game tackling is optional, just throw into a player with your shoulder and hope they fall down. No form tackling, no wrapping up with your arms, etc.

So, yeah, fuck it, I am cool with drafting Forbes now!!! Let us embrace this new NFL!!! We should trade up from 17 to the top 10 to make sure we get Forbes!!!

I don't even know how guys tackle now. Granted I didn't play past high school but I can't imagine not tackling head first. "Stick your helmet between the guy's numbers" is they way we were taught. That's 15 yards now. I always wonder if guys will get hurt trying to tackle and not get a flag. Imagine a RB or WR running full speed and you pulling up because you don't want to get a flag. Defenders are getting the short end of the stick in today's NFL for sure.

[955876]

Pussified? This is silly garbage.

One of our defenders was rushing the passer. He fell short and grabbed the QBs leg, pulling his sock down some in the process.

The QB didn’t even fall and hit the ground.

We got flagged for rouging the passer.

So ya, count me in the league has been pussified camp.

[ol skool]

Pussified? This is silly garbage.

One of our defenders was rushing the passer. He fell short and grabbed the QBs leg, pulling his sock down some in the process.

The QB didn’t even fall and hit the ground.

We got flagged for rouging the passer.

So ya, count me in the league has been pussified camp.

Don’t remember when, but you’re talking about Aaron Smith vs the Saints. Pulled Drew Brees’ sock down and got hit w/ 15yds. I thought I was dreaming when it happened.

[RemoAZ]

Steelers officially win Claypool trade:
https://twitter.com/SteelersNetwork/sta ... 8291600386

[anpsteel]

Steelers officially win Claypool trade:
https://twitter.com/SteelersNetwork/sta ... 8291600386

apparently that's not claypool

but if it is, ho lee shit... how dumb can you be

[RemoAZ]

Steelers officially win Claypool trade:
https://twitter.com/SteelersNetwork/sta ... 8291600386

apparently that's not claypool

but if it is, ho lee shit... how dumb can you be

I know it's not but it looked enough like him to make you take a second look.

[anpsteel]

Steelers officially win Claypool trade:
https://twitter.com/SteelersNetwork/sta ... 8291600386

apparently that's not claypool

but if it is, ho lee shit... how dumb can you be

I know it's not but it looked enough like him to make you take a second look.

Absolutely

[anpsteel]

Doing some procrastination, this morning-


The Steelers positions of need
ILB
OT
DT
CB
S

The only one of these positions they didn’t address through FA, is OT, so that feels like its position 1 with ILB being 1A

When I run the various simulators, without making any trades, here are the players at those positions frequently still on the board at 17

OT: Darnell Wright, Anton Harrison, Dwand Jones
ILB: Trenton Simpson, Nolan Smith, Drew Sanders, Jack Cambell
DT: Bryan Bresee, Calijah Kancey, Mazi Smith, Gervon Dexter
CB: Joey Porter, Cam Smith, Deonte Banks

The Safety class is not filled with upper tier talents. I’m not looking at Safety in rd 1.

Ideally, I’d trade down a few slots, to pick up another selection, ideally inside the top 100.

But staying put

I’d probably take one of the OTs depending upon how they have them graded.

Lets go with Darnell Wright at 17

At 32 Joey Porter, Cam Smith, Deonte Banks, are all off the board, so now we move to 2nd tier corners
Anton Harrison and Nolan Smith are also off the board

So 32- it’s hard not to take Bresee- but I don’t see any way he’s still available so…
32: Trenton Simpson (I don’t think he makes it to 32 either, but it’s not completely unrealistic)

At 49, I’m looking at DE/DT, CB, S, with an outside shot at WR
DT: Gervon Dexter is still here, as is Siaki Ika
CB: DJ Turner, Clark Phillips, Emmanuel Forbes (I wouldn’t take Phillips or Forbes- as I think they are too small) Tyrique Stevenson, Julius Brents
S: JL Skinner, Antonio Johnson

This is between Gervon Dexter and DJ Turner… this is tough… both have a lot of upside. Dexter is more game ready, but Turner’s speed…
49: DJ Turner (I’d be prepared to kick my own ass if Dexter Turns out to be a stud)

80 comes down to DT or S, with consideration to BPA at OC & WR
S: Brandon Joseph, Christopher Smith, JiAyre Brown, Ronnie Hickman
DT: Keeanu Benton, Zach Pickens
OC: Joe Tippmann, Luke Wypler
WR: Kayshon Boutte, Tyler Scott, Xavier Hutchinson, Jonathan Mingo

I want to take Tippmann, but I think that’s a lesser need
I like Pickens position flexibility over Benton, I think…
But Benton feels like a safer pick for a 3-4 so…
80: Keeanu Benton

Anyway, that was todays episode of, I Don’t Feel Like Working



How do you think it will play out-

[gojira5150]

Rolle = 5’11 173
Carter = 5’11 168

Forbes is significantly less than those two

Significantly!? If Forbes is 166lbs then he's only 7lbs lighter than Rolle and 2lbs lighter than Carter. That's not significantly less than.

[Mick]

Rolle = 5’11 173
Carter = 5’11 168

Forbes is significantly less than those two

Significantly!? If Forbes is 166lbs then he's only 7lbs lighter than Rolle and 2lbs lighter than Carter. That's not significantly less than.

agree kind of, but carter was a WR so i’m not clear how that’s even topical. You can be tiny as a WR, and you don’t need to go back in NFL history for guys like that. If Marquise Brown says “screw it, if a 250 pound ball carrier tries to run me over, i’m just going to dive out of the way”, he can get away with that, because he’s on offense and that’s almost never going to matter. But if there’s a defender on the field who plans to dodge ball carriers, game plan will run him over every snap.

For CBs in the league, 180 lbs is kind of a hard floor these days. 20 years ago there was a fair number below 180 (in Rolle’s day), but even back then Forbes would have been too small. In 2023, he’s 15 pounds away from being 15 pounds too small.

[yygy]

Forbes is an interesting prospect. I think Steelers have moved away from the off man tackle the catch approach to cb. They’ve led the league in picks in the past few seasons. I bet they’ve grown to like it.

As a converted wr Forbes plays cb like a receiver. You draft Forbes for ball skills. Put another ball hawk in the secondary give burrow et al something to think about.

At 32 I’d say yeah to Forbes

[SteelerDayTrader]

Rolle = 5’11 173
Carter = 5’11 168

Forbes is significantly less than those two

Significantly!? If Forbes is 166lbs then he's only 7lbs lighter than Rolle and 2lbs lighter than Carter. That's not significantly less than.

Wrong

Forbes is 6’1

Do the math

[tbsteel]

Rolle = 5’11 173
Carter = 5’11 168

Forbes is significantly less than those two

Significantly!? If Forbes is 166lbs then he's only 7lbs lighter than Rolle and 2lbs lighter than Carter. That's not significantly less than.

Wrong

Forbes is 6’1

Do the math

.

That's a huge difference. Think about all the work he put in and water weight he probably added just to even get up to 170 at his pro day. Did he even do the bench or anything else at his pro day other than a weigh in?

And let's face it, the Steelers just haven't done very well with the super thin guys:

[tbsteel]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I follow a guy who gets certain bread crumbs from a friend of his who supposedly works in the Steelers FO. I know that sounds like my cousin's best friend's girlfriend's brother's uncle hah, but he has gotten some pretty good intel in the past.

*Prior to the 2021 NFL Draft, he said they had Harris #5 overall on their board, that they loved Kendrick Green, and thought the tackle class was deep (waited until the 4th to draft Dan Moore Jr.).

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said they had a first round grade on both George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal and like Chris Oladukan.

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said their QB rankings were Pickett, Corral, Willis, and Ridder in that order (interesting that those were the top 4 guys drafted, with the drafted order being Pickett, Ridder, Willis, Corral).

*Tomlin and Colbert reportedly had no QBs in their top 20 in 2022, but the pick for Pickett was an organization decision (i.e., Rooney). Stingley was reportedly #1 on their board and they loved Jordan Davis.

...

For this year, these are some of the crumbs at the moment FYI:

*The main realistic target is Broderick Jones and if he's not there they are really looking into a possible trade down. He thinks they most likely end up with one of the Jones' (Dawand or Broderick).

*A couple of others they really love: Drew Sanders and Jonathan Mingo.

*Hearing they like Banks more than Porter, and may not be that high on Porter. Also hearing they do like Addison.

*Thinks they at least were previously fielding and even making calls on trading DJ earlier this offseason.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Significantly!? If Forbes is 166lbs then he's only 7lbs lighter than Rolle and 2lbs lighter than Carter. That's not significantly less than.

Wrong

Forbes is 6’1

Do the math

.

That's a huge difference. Think about all the work he put in and water weight he probably added just to even get up to 170 at his pro day. Did he even do the bench or anything else at his pro day other than a weigh in?

And let's face it, the Steelers just haven't done very well with the super thin guys:

Look at those pins

He will get snapped in half in the NFL

Wrist circumference matters

[SteelerDayTrader]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I follow a guy who gets certain bread crumbs from a friend of his who supposedly works in the Steelers FO. I know that sounds like my cousin's best friend's girlfriend's brother's uncle hah, but he has gotten some pretty good intel in the past.

*Prior to the 2021 NFL Draft, he said they had Harris #5 overall on their board, that they loved Kendrick Green, and thought the tackle class was deep (waited until the 4th to draft Dan Moore Jr.).

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said they had a first round grade on both George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal and like Chris Oladukan.

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said their QB rankings were Pickett, Corral, Willis, and Ridder in that order (interesting that those were the top 4 guys drafted, with the drafted order being Pickett, Ridder, Willis, Corral).

*Tomlin and Colbert reportedly had no QBs in their top 20 in 2022, but the pick for Pickett was an organization decision (i.e., Rooney). Stingley was reportedly #1 on their board and they loved Jordan Davis.

...

For this year, these are some of the crumbs at the moment FYI:

*The main realistic target is Broderick Jones and if he's not there they are really looking into a possible trade down. He thinks they most likely end up with one of the Jones' (Dawand or Broderick).

*A couple of others they really love: Drew Sanders and Jonathan Mingo.

*Hearing they like Banks more than Porter, and may not be that high on Porter. Also hearing they do like Addison.

*Thinks they at least were previously fielding and even making calls on trading DJ earlier this offseason.

Lolz

- The Steelers FO is in love with themselves often. Harris #5 ?? WTF

- Given their roster needs at the time Green was a decent gamble. I think the Steelers and the former OL coach messed him up more than anything

- I don’t get the Drew Sanders love. He reminds me of Low Watt. Will accumulate stats but come up a zero when it matters and not have much cred in the lockerroom

- Drafting Addison in the 3rd I could live with I guess but there are a lot of WRs I’d rather have

[RemoAZ]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I follow a guy who gets certain bread crumbs from a friend of his who supposedly works in the Steelers FO. I know that sounds like my cousin's best friend's girlfriend's brother's uncle hah, but he has gotten some pretty good intel in the past.

*Prior to the 2021 NFL Draft, he said they had Harris #5 overall on their board, that they loved Kendrick Green, and thought the tackle class was deep (waited until the 4th to draft Dan Moore Jr.).

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said they had a first round grade on both George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal and like Chris Oladukan.

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said their QB rankings were Pickett, Corral, Willis, and Ridder in that order (interesting that those were the top 4 guys drafted, with the drafted order being Pickett, Ridder, Willis, Corral).

*Tomlin and Colbert reportedly had no QBs in their top 20 in 2022, but the pick for Pickett was an organization decision (i.e., Rooney). Stingley was reportedly #1 on their board and they loved Jordan Davis.

...

For this year, these are some of the crumbs at the moment FYI:

*The main realistic target is Broderick Jones and if he's not there they are really looking into a possible trade down. He thinks they most likely end up with one of the Jones' (Dawand or Broderick).

*A couple of others they really love: Drew Sanders and Jonathan Mingo.

*Hearing they like Banks more than Porter, and may not be that high on Porter. Also hearing they do like Addison.

*Thinks they at least were previously fielding and even making calls on trading DJ earlier this offseason.

Thanks for sharing all of. Love the fact that they are at least looking into trading Johnson. Would love to see them get a high pick for him at the draft.

[tbsteel]

Take this with a grain of salt, but I follow a guy who gets certain bread crumbs from a friend of his who supposedly works in the Steelers FO. I know that sounds like my cousin's best friend's girlfriend's brother's uncle hah, but he has gotten some pretty good intel in the past.

*Prior to the 2021 NFL Draft, he said they had Harris #5 overall on their board, that they loved Kendrick Green, and thought the tackle class was deep (waited until the 4th to draft Dan Moore Jr.).

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said they had a first round grade on both George Pickens and DeMarvin Leal and like Chris Oladukan.

*Prior to the 2022 NFL Draft, he said their QB rankings were Pickett, Corral, Willis, and Ridder in that order (interesting that those were the top 4 guys drafted, with the drafted order being Pickett, Ridder, Willis, Corral).

*Tomlin and Colbert reportedly had no QBs in their top 20 in 2022, but the pick for Pickett was an organization decision (i.e., Rooney). Stingley was reportedly #1 on their board and they loved Jordan Davis.

...

For this year, these are some of the crumbs at the moment FYI:

*The main realistic target is Broderick Jones and if he's not there they are really looking into a possible trade down. He thinks they most likely end up with one of the Jones' (Dawand or Broderick).

*A couple of others they really love: Drew Sanders and Jonathan Mingo.

*Hearing they like Banks more than Porter, and may not be that high on Porter. Also hearing they do like Addison.

*Thinks they at least were previously fielding and even making calls on trading DJ earlier this offseason.

Thanks for sharing all of. Love the fact that they are at least looking into trading Johnson. Would love to see them get a high pick for him at the draft.

I don't really see a Johnson trade looking at the roster now, but he did have some baaaad body language last year and I figure he wasn't a great locker room guy given the whole 0 TDs thing. That, along with the continued key drops, I can see the Steelers having soured on him and wanting to move on if it made sense.

I think they'd have to get blown away by a trade proposal to do it. And from a dead money standpoint, it would make more sense to do something post-June 1st. Trading him would create a huge hole on the roster.

[SteelerDayTrader]

So let’s say they get a 4th for DJ on draft day

Who are they grabbing to replace him ?

[Mick]

A lot of diontae’s dead money is his guaranteed 2023 salary; that dead money ($8M) follows him in a trade.

Scenario i would imagine would be draft day your target isn’t there when you hope but one of your favorite WRs is; take the WR, make the trade and fill out the position you had missed on with the draft pick you get.

Most of those tidbits seems pretty believable; pretty clear they are focusing on OT at 1.17.

[RemoAZ]

A lot of diontae’s dead money is his guaranteed 2023 salary; that dead money ($8M) follows him in a trade.

Scenario i would imagine would be draft day your target isn’t there when you hope but one of your favorite WRs is; take the WR, make the trade and fill out the position you had missed on with the draft pick you get.

Most of those tidbits seems pretty believable; pretty clear they are focusing on OT at 1.17.

I don't believe they take a WR in round one either way. They've done really well getting WRs after the 1st so no need to reach for one imo. Since they'd most likely be replacing Johnson with a rookie and possibly a FA that's still out there who'd come cheap, they wouldn't be adding much salary. I think moving him is very doable and would be good for the young offense.

[Deebo]

So let’s say they get a 4th for DJ on draft day

Who are they grabbing to replace him ?

Well first off, DJ is worth more than a 4th.

But even if it's a 2nd round pick, I'm concerned that having Pickett throw to a 2nd year guy and a rookie isn't in his best interest.

[Mick]

So let’s say they get a 4th for DJ on draft day

Who are they grabbing to replace him ?

Well first off, DJ is worth more than a 4th.

But even if it's a 2nd round pick, I'm concerned that having Pickett throw to a 2nd year guy and a rookie isn't in his best interest.

truth. I don’t think an nfl team has made the superbowl with their top two WRs having a combined 1 year or less of NFL experience since…way back in february 2022.

[SteelerDayTrader]

So let’s say they get a 4th for DJ on draft day

Who are they grabbing to replace him ?

Well first off, DJ is worth more than a 4th.

But even if it's a 2nd round pick, I'm concerned that having Pickett throw to a 2nd year guy and a rookie isn't in his best interest.