Post
by Scunge » Wed Nov 08, 2017 10:22 am
After rewatching some games and looking at some stats from previous years I am starting to come around to maybe some of Ben's problems.
First, the thing that has been telling for me is his percentage of first downs that he gets on his throws. You look at Tom Brady and the other top QBs they are usually at that 38-40% range. Ben was at 39.5% in 2014, then 37.1% in 2016, then down to 36.1% last season and now it is 33.5% for 2017 through 8 games.
That 33.5% first down rate is probably the worst of his career. That is Josh McCown, Jacoby Brisset, Trevor Simien territory. Just for reference, Ben's rookie year he was at 44%, the next year in 2005, the first Super Bowl it was 41%. Ben was always great at picking up first downs on his throws. But it used to be so much easier when he had Heath Miller at TE, or had viable #2 and #3 WRs that could be depended on to move the chains, to get easy throws.
We have lost those dependable, workmanlike pass catchers that did the dirty work, that kept drives going. Gone are Heath Miller, Manny Sanders, Jericho Cotchery that made it so easy for Ben just a couple of years ago.
Now? Now we don't really have a TE, that is that go-to TE that worked the field like Miller did. Yes, I want a vertical, athletic threat at TE but he must be able to do the short stuff too, make the routine catches to move the chains. Be it James or McDonald, somebody needs to step up there.
Having that consistent #2 WR who can play opposite of Brown has been a problem this year, JuJu has really come on and is a very good/great #3 and could very well be that #2. He is really the only WR outside of Brown who Ben can confidently throw to and pick up first downs, keep drives alive. JuJu has 24 catches and 19 went for first downs. JuJu has the highest catch percentage and first down percentage of the WRs and that includes being better at it than Brown.
So, Ben has Brown, JuJu and needs the TE to complete that trifecta. We need McDonald to firmly grab that starting TE job and not just catch deep passes but really clean up on the short passes, the safety blanket passes that Ben had with Miller.
Also, it is funny how Ben leads the NFL in deep passes over 40+ yards. He has 8 on the season, and just think how many he could have had if not for this or that, just an inch here or there, a player not getting their head turned around to see the ball, or slowing down on the play, or Ben just slightly off with the ball.
I don't think it can be under estimated that the tackle protection has been shaky this year. Both Left and Right tackles. Big Al has not played as well as he did to end last season. Marcus Gilbert has missed how many games? I don't mean to place Ben's troubles at their feet but you are paid to give him time to throw the ball and it is below the line this year. And to make matters worse, Gilbert was talking earlier in the year how he was perhaps unhappy with his current contract. How about staying healthy and actually play two games in a row?
I still think Ben does not have the strength and mobility that he used to have with his legs. I think he is more susceptible to bad throws as it has an impact on his throwing mechanics. It is what it is. But I think these next 8 games to end the season, Ben and the offense can get much better and maybe, just maybe, if McDonald, Bryant, Villy, Gilbert can up their games, it will allow Ben to play closer to his 2014-2015 form. Even if he only gets to say 75-80% of that Ben from two years ago, that might be enough to win a Super Bowl.
