Cheating

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ToddHaleysNineIron
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Re: Cheating

Post by ToddHaleysNineIron » Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:57 pm

StillMadAtSlobber wrote:
Wed Jan 15, 2020 7:21 pm
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-di ... -stealing/
Digging into the Astros plate discipline stats helps us get a little more granular. Here’s a comparison of some key metrics at the team level in Minute Maid Park.

Astros Plate Discipline At Home
Year O-Swing% Z-Contact% SwStr%
2016 28.60% 79.15% 13.20%
2017 27.80% 85.85% 9.50%
Change -0.80% 6.70% -3.70%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
The Astros improved in all three of these plate discipline metrics from 2016 to 2017. They chased pitches out of the zone less often, they made contact on pitches in the zone more frequently, and swung and missed less often. Then again, Houston posted better marks in each of these three metrics on the road than at home in 2017.
The Astros roster had some pretty significant turnover between these two years. Could the difference in talent level explain their huge improvements in plate discipline? Five of the nine batters who accumulated the most plate appearances in 2016 carried over to the next season: George Springer, José Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, and Evan Gattis. If we limit our data query to those five batters, we see similar results.

Astros Plate Discipline At Home
Year O-Swing% Z-Contact% SwStr%
2016 27.91% 81.91% 11.50%
2017 27.45% 86.51% 9.41%
Change -0.46% 4.59% -2.09%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Combined plate discipline for George Springer, José Altuve, Carlos Correa, Marwin Gonzalez, and Evan Gattis.
These five batters improved their plate discipline across the board. And when we compare their plate discipline on the road in 2017, they posted a better chase rate and swinging strike rate away from home. Only their zone contact rate was better at home in 2017 (86.5% at home, 85.7% on the road).
Much more to read there including
What do these run values look like when we compare their 2017 home performance to their away performance?

Astros’ Pitch Type Run Values
Year Fastball Breaking Offspeed
Swing Runs
2017 – Home -44.15 -24.81 -17.2
2017 – Away 16.08 -7.36 -11.97
Difference -60.23 -17.45 -5.23
Take Runs
2017 – Home 75.23 43.46 21.25
2017 – Away 84.97 25.4 22.1
Difference -9.74 18.06 -0.85
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Astros’ Zone Run Values
Year In Zone Out of Zone
Swing Runs
2017 – Home 20.8 -75.08
2017 – Away 79.99 -96.45
Difference -59.19 21.37
Take Runs
2017 – Home -107.37 214.99
2017 – Away -83.63 229.33
Difference -23.74 -14.34
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Well that certainly clouds our data. In almost every respect, the Astros performed better on the road than at home in 2017. The only aspects where they saw better results at home were when taking breaking balls and taking pitches out of the zone. They were around 20 runs better at home than on the road when they spit on a breaking ball or if the pitch was out of the zone. Considering all the data we’ve seen so far, that might be the one area where the Astros truly benefited from their sign-stealing system, and it earned them maybe a couple of extra wins in 2017.
You may or may not want to try some analysis.
I mean this is all great... but I mean to go from batting
.143 on the road vs .472 at home... there is only so much masking of that you can do with chase rates and everything else. I mean you could show me some offensive metrics on plate appearances that were better on the road than at home... but if you give me a team of guys hitting .472 vs .143 ... my .472 team is going to win 10/10 times no matter how bad their Z-contact % analytics are.

Am I wrong about that? It would be one thing if most of those averages were somewhat the same on the road and home, but there are some significant differences there.

Maybe I'm wrong - but at this point we are arguing if it helped or not... in the end it doesn't matter if it helped or not because there was a system put in place by the Astros to do it, and they did do it. If any of those players didn't want the trash can gong to tell them what was coming because it messed up their focus - I am certain it wouldn't have been done.


SteelerDayTrader, who is currently on your ignore list, made this post.

Donnie Brasco
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Post by Donnie Brasco » Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:04 pm

blu wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:08 pm
I wonder what Goodell has told Kraft now with the baseball cheating scandal. Belicheat & Ernie Adams will never be the same & if New England just gets a slap on the wrist for filming the Bengals sidelines then Goodell will be laughed at even more.

Mount Rushmore of Boston Sports...Belicheat, Cora, Brady and Rosie Ruiz.
What is interesting to me is that as soon as the video came out with the Pats and Bengals, the Pats went from being front runner to one that lost a few games. Now the Pats are out of the limelight a little bit. Well you can completely sweep this under the rug if team in the spotlight is no longer playing.

Well guess who loses quickly on the first day of the playoffs? No one is talking about the Pats anymore because of that.

If there's a minor punishment/fine people will move on and ignore it because there's "exciting conference championship games to talk about. Hey did you know the Chiefs and Packers played in one of the first NFL championship games? Well it could happen again!"

blu
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Post by blu » Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:32 pm

Donnie Brasco wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 8:04 pm
blu wrote:
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:08 pm
I wonder what Goodell has told Kraft now with the baseball cheating scandal. Belicheat & Ernie Adams will never be the same & if New England just gets a slap on the wrist for filming the Bengals sidelines then Goodell will be laughed at even more.

Mount Rushmore of Boston Sports...Belicheat, Cora, Brady and Rosie Ruiz.
What is interesting to me is that as soon as the video came out with the Pats and Bengals, the Pats went from being front runner to one that lost a few games. Now the Pats are out of the limelight a little bit. Well you can completely sweep this under the rug if team in the spotlight is no longer playing.

Well guess who loses quickly on the first day of the playoffs? No one is talking about the Pats anymore because of that.

If there's a minor punishment/fine people will move on and ignore it because there's "exciting conference championship games to talk about. Hey did you know the Chiefs and Packers played in one of the first NFL championship games? Well it could happen again!"
I doubt Belicheat/Adams will be doing any more cheating now after being caught again in Cincinnati & with the more extreme baseball punishments being mentioned as being possibly too lenient.

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BethlehemSteel
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Post by BethlehemSteel » Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:52 pm

Suspension for Kraft and Bb/Ea

Stop the insanity
"If our team doesn't face enough adversity early on in a season, I create it. Nothing builds a team like adversity." ~ Mike Tomlin
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Jobu
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Post by Jobu » Sat Jan 18, 2020 2:50 am

I doubt Belicheat/Adams will be doing any more cheating now
Seriously?
“Ah, who cares about Seattle’s Space Needle? Dumb looking building, you can see the whole stupid town, built by some jag off! Pittsburgh got Mt. Warshington, gorgeous hillside, beautiful views of the whole city, built by God…we win!” - Pittsburgh Dad

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BethlehemSteel
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Post by BethlehemSteel » Sat Jan 18, 2020 3:14 am

Let's do this game by game, shall we?

Titans v. Patriots: I said way back in Week 7 (really, earlier if you count my pre-season Super Bowl prediction) that the Patriots would flame out. Brady looked old, America was sick of all things "The Patriots' Way" related, and the NFL needed new blood. Tack on to that a new "Spygate" scandal and the dynasty was coming to an abrupt end.

What really sealed the deal was the TV broadcast. Despite the game being tight throughout, all game long the talk was, "What comes next for Brady? Will he retire? Will he be a Patriot? What will New England do next season?" These questions were being openly asked before halftime! Shouldn't they come up post-game, if the Patriots lost? Nope. Not on Saturday. So when the main talking point for the ga.me isn't the game in progress, but talk of next season, you know the refs aren't about to lend a hand to the team being questioned. And so, without too much fanfare, the Patriots were done. Did it really matter who took 'em out? I guess not as the story had be played out for nearly 20 years. Perhaps a bit anti-climatic, but what'd you want? Yet another Super Bowl appearance?
"If our team doesn't face enough adversity early on in a season, I create it. Nothing builds a team like adversity." ~ Mike Tomlin
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punum123
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Post by punum123 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 12:11 pm

Screw NE and their dynasty.

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BethlehemSteel
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Post by BethlehemSteel » Sat Jan 18, 2020 7:22 pm

Bruschi knows it’s bad. He won’t go down the rabbit hole though

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/285 ... ged-poorly
"If our team doesn't face enough adversity early on in a season, I create it. Nothing builds a team like adversity." ~ Mike Tomlin
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