R_S wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 am
https://m.calcalistech.com/Article.aspx?guid=3800632
This guys pretty smart. Hes is thinking on an Entirely different plane than epidemiologists. So china is petering out at what? 3-4k deaths
And im supposed to believe that 400k to 1.6 million Anericans will die?
I already know what will happen. Less than 10k will die and the "experts" will claim social distancing saved us!
Now we have increasing panic each day when the 24/7 news media reports another positive test. Well no shit. Now they are finally testing people and its appears that we are all gonna get it. Wrong. Positives will peter out as testing levels out.
Mortality rate is gonna be well beloe 1% when this thing is said and done. Hell. Id be some of you have already had this fucker a month ago. NBA guys getting tested who are asymptomatic and positive. Stay home, due your part but enough of the doom and gloom. Back to work in April!
Just read the damn article.
Optimism is good for your health.
I just read your post this morning, but before doing so had sent the CalTech link around a bunch before seeing it to my surprise in Fury.
This is a beacon of hope.
20% infection rate.
Unfortunately we seem to be pivoting away from testing nationally which will make plotting the infection rate more difficult than it needs to be.
If we plot the infection rate properly, you can spit out the end date of this mess with pretty decent accuracy in the US and every country.
The cruise lines being more or less a Nazi dream experiment if it would have been government forced on people, ends up being a valuable trove of data; such as, same infection rate as the flu and we do have immunity already built up in the herd.
He still says we need to be doing what we are doing to shrink our social circles. Throw in public transportation and mass transit, and the social circles are huge and the spread can be exponential, break those transportation options and the disease becomes manageable. Unfortunately it is additive to the flu during a the flu season, but all that will be diminishing hopefully in the next couple of weeks.