Well. How is everyone doing with this thing? NFL free agency may be only sports happening for a while.

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Donnie Brasco
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Re: Well. How is everyone doing with this thing? NFL free agency may be only sports happening for a while.

Post by Donnie Brasco » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 pm
Italy has 60M. The USA around 330M. Hospitals here are at 70% capacity. If the stats bear out, this country is WOEFULLY unprepared for a pandemic. And that's not even taking into consideration the lack of ventilators. The USA is 2 weeks behind Italy, and they just reported 475 deaths. Overnight. And reports are coming out that the young and healthy are susceptible to the virus as well as the elderly and immuno-compromised.

This is no joke. And to think the CDC and the FDA told seattle researches to keep quiet about this in january, and gov. officials telling the gullible public that this is no worse than the common flu. The USA is so far behind the curve it's pathetic.
Italy also has one of the more denser populations in the world.
Also one of the oldest:
http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html

Age plus people in close proximity? That's an easy recipe for a pandemic to hit a country HARD



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Pabst
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Post by Pabst » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:37 pm
I think it's premature to call it overreaction.
To date, South Korea has tested 295,000 people, and they have returned a positive rate of 2.88%.

Applying that infection rate to the entire US population equates to 1,000,000 people total. And that doesn't even factor in selection bias in testing.

An estimated 80% of infected people will experience only mild symptoms, so even in a worst case scenario, we're looking at 200,000 people requiring hospitalization nation wide. When the Washington Post is estimating that 5x that number of people will require a hospital, I call it an overreaction.

My issue isn't with taking precautions and preparing for the worst. It's with outlets failing at basic math and scaring people.

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Post by jebrick » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:58 pm

Pabst wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm
CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:37 pm
I think it's premature to call it overreaction.
To date, South Korea has tested 295,000 people, and they have returned a positive rate of 2.88%.

Applying that infection rate to the entire US population equates to 1,000,000 people total. And that doesn't even factor in selection bias in testing.

An estimated 80% of infected people will experience only mild symptoms, so even in a worst case scenario, we're looking at 200,000 people requiring hospitalization nation wide. When the Washington Post is estimating that 5x that number of people will require a hospital, I call it an overreaction.

My issue isn't with taking precautions and preparing for the worst. It's with outlets failing at basic math and scaring people.
They also jumped on it way earlier and almost had total containment except for one old lady who infected over 1000 people. And that overloaded their medical facilities in one city. The US is not testing nearly enough. If the data from China is predictive there are about 3-6x the number of people with it than test positive. I will get a citation for that when I change computers.

Point is, many in the US have not taken or are not taking this seriously. The crowded beaches in Florida yesterday are proof. By estimates we are matching the Italy curve rather than the China curve and we are two weeks behind the Italy curve.

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Post by StillJones » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:58 pm

To date, South Korea has tested 295,000 people, and they have returned a positive rate of 2.88%.

Applying that infection rate to the entire US population equates to 1,000,000 people total. And that doesn't even factor in selection bias in testing.
Might want to check your math...
330,000,000 * 0.0288 = 9,504,000

and that 2.88% infection rate is for a society that is actively testing 100,000 people per day to contain the infected & most people wear masks everywhere. Will probably be higher in most Western countries.
Last edited by StillJones on Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by jebrick » Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:59 pm

Donnie Brasco wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm
CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 pm
Italy has 60M. The USA around 330M. Hospitals here are at 70% capacity. If the stats bear out, this country is WOEFULLY unprepared for a pandemic. And that's not even taking into consideration the lack of ventilators. The USA is 2 weeks behind Italy, and they just reported 475 deaths. Overnight. And reports are coming out that the young and healthy are susceptible to the virus as well as the elderly and immuno-compromised.

This is no joke. And to think the CDC and the FDA told seattle researches to keep quiet about this in january, and gov. officials telling the gullible public that this is no worse than the common flu. The USA is so far behind the curve it's pathetic.
Italy also has one of the more denser populations in the world.
Also one of the oldest:
http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html

Age plus people in close proximity? That's an easy recipe for a pandemic to hit a country HARD
Like Florida?

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Post by Donnie Brasco » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm

stinger8 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:29 pm
Old School wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:01 am
stinger8 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:21 pm


Based on a mortality rate of 7.5% in Italy (1800 dead 24,000 infected) which WILL be higher in USA due to obesity/food quality etc at the same infection rate in Italy about 10,000 Americans will die. Now Italy quarantined whole geographic areas to get this mortality rate USA cant because some peoples kids have to wrestle and other people are worried about money or watching golf maybe 20,000 people may die but hey if its not me what the fuck??? Old school stand up and tell one of the 10,000 your golf or money were more important than their life :roll: :roll:
22,000 dead Americans this flu season, less than 200 dead Americans from pandemic Chinese flu and most of those deceased are over 80 and suffering with other ailments. No American under 60 has passed from this virus bioengineered in a Chinese lab. The projected extrapolations from other nations claims are unfounded. We're being snookered, our economy is being slaughtered, we are suffering from the supposed protection, not from the virus.
Oooops
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/yo ... li=AAggNb9
Did you read this paragraph, about 1/2 way through the article?

"The report included no information about whether patients of any age had underlying risk factors, such as a chronic illness or a compromised immune system. So, it is impossible to determine whether the younger patients who were hospitalized were more susceptible to serious infection than most others in their age group."

So it's hard to make any determination at this point

I hate that they have to close shit down because if we didn't act like idiots and/or savages maybe the restaurants could have been kept open with the adage "don't go out to eat unless you really need to and restaurants should segregate tables at least 6 ft apart. And if you

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Post by Pabst » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:26 pm

StillJones wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:58 pm
To date, South Korea has tested 295,000 people, and they have returned a positive rate of 2.88%.

Applying that infection rate to the entire US population equates to 1,000,000 people total. And that doesn't even factor in selection bias in testing.
Might want to check your math...
330,000,000 * 0.0288 = 9,504,000

and that 2.88% infection rate is for a society that is actively testing 100,000 people per day to contain the infected & most people wear masks everywhere. Will probably be higher in most Western countries.
That's what i get for doing two different things at once. I'm combining several different numbers

South Korea has peaked at ~8,500 infections - As stated, they jumped on it earlier, but they also had a higher outbreak earlier. Total infection rate there is .016%

I'm still going to hold that 1,000,000 requiring hospitalization in the US is a stupidly high assumption.

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Post by CORE-TEN » Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:34 pm

Donnie Brasco wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
Did you read this paragraph, about 1/2 way through the article?

"The report included no information about whether patients of any age had underlying risk factors, such as a chronic illness or a compromised immune system. So, it is impossible to determine whether the younger patients who were hospitalized were more susceptible to serious infection than most others in their age group."

So it's hard to make any determination at this point

I hate that they have to close shit down because if we didn't act like idiots and/or savages maybe the restaurants could have been kept open with the adage "don't go out to eat unless you really need to and restaurants should segregate tables at least 6 ft apart. And if you
And the following two paragraphs after the one you posted.
But experts said that even if younger people in the report were medical outliers, the fact that they were taking up hospital beds and space in intensive care units was significant.

And these more serious cases represent the leading edge of how the pandemic is rapidly unfolding in the United States, showing that adults of all ages are susceptible and should be concerned about protecting their own health, and not transmitting the virus to others.
I don't know about you, but I have a 93 year old mother, and other family members that are immocompromised. I don't give a shit about sports if it means those people are safe. Same goes for everyone else, and their families. Sure, a lot of people will be asymptomatic, and most will recover. This isn't about the healthy or those that recover, it's about who an infected person comes in contact with. And so on, etc. leading to someones death. I call that irresponsible and lacking in empathy. And FYI :

Intelligence Chairman Raised Virus Alarms Weeks Ago, Secret Recording Shows
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/81819253 ... n-covid-19
On that same day, Burr attended a luncheon held at a social club called the Capitol Hill Club. And he delivered a much more alarming message.

"There's one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history," he said, according to a secret recording of the remarks obtained by NPR. "It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic."

The luncheon had been organized by the Tar Heel Circle, a nonpartisan group whose membership consists of businesses and organizations in North Carolina, the state Burr represents. Membership to join the Tar Heel Circle costs between $500 and $10,000 and promises that members "enjoy interaction with top leaders and staff from Congress, the administration, and the private sector," according to the group's website.

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Post by Donnie Brasco » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:07 pm

jebrick wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:59 pm
Donnie Brasco wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:45 pm
CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:57 pm
Italy has 60M. The USA around 330M. Hospitals here are at 70% capacity. If the stats bear out, this country is WOEFULLY unprepared for a pandemic. And that's not even taking into consideration the lack of ventilators. The USA is 2 weeks behind Italy, and they just reported 475 deaths. Overnight. And reports are coming out that the young and healthy are susceptible to the virus as well as the elderly and immuno-compromised.

This is no joke. And to think the CDC and the FDA told seattle researches to keep quiet about this in january, and gov. officials telling the gullible public that this is no worse than the common flu. The USA is so far behind the curve it's pathetic.
Italy also has one of the more denser populations in the world.
Also one of the oldest:
http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html

Age plus people in close proximity? That's an easy recipe for a pandemic to hit a country HARD
Like Florida?
Italy is still more dense than Fla. In the US we have a lot of major cities, but they continue dwindling out to the suburbs. In Europe and other countries its just a mass of continuous dense dwellings

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Post by Donnie Brasco » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:18 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:34 pm
Donnie Brasco wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:11 pm
Did you read this paragraph, about 1/2 way through the article?

"The report included no information about whether patients of any age had underlying risk factors, such as a chronic illness or a compromised immune system. So, it is impossible to determine whether the younger patients who were hospitalized were more susceptible to serious infection than most others in their age group."

So it's hard to make any determination at this point

I hate that they have to close shit down because if we didn't act like idiots and/or savages maybe the restaurants could have been kept open with the adage "don't go out to eat unless you really need to and restaurants should segregate tables at least 6 ft apart. And if you
And the following two paragraphs after the one you posted.
But experts said that even if younger people in the report were medical outliers, the fact that they were taking up hospital beds and space in intensive care units was significant.

And these more serious cases represent the leading edge of how the pandemic is rapidly unfolding in the United States, showing that adults of all ages are susceptible and should be concerned about protecting their own health, and not transmitting the virus to others.
I don't know about you, but I have a 93 year old mother, and other family members that are immocompromised. I don't give a shit about sports if it means those people are safe. Same goes for everyone else, and their families. Sure, a lot of people will be asymptomatic, and most will recover. This isn't about the healthy or those that recover, it's about who an infected person comes in contact with. And so on, etc. leading to someones death. I call that irresponsible and lacking in empathy. And FYI :

Intelligence Chairman Raised Virus Alarms Weeks Ago, Secret Recording Shows
https://www.npr.org/2020/03/19/81819253 ... n-covid-19
On that same day, Burr attended a luncheon held at a social club called the Capitol Hill Club. And he delivered a much more alarming message.

"There's one thing that I can tell you about this: It is much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history," he said, according to a secret recording of the remarks obtained by NPR. "It is probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic."

The luncheon had been organized by the Tar Heel Circle, a nonpartisan group whose membership consists of businesses and organizations in North Carolina, the state Burr represents. Membership to join the Tar Heel Circle costs between $500 and $10,000 and promises that members "enjoy interaction with top leaders and staff from Congress, the administration, and the private sector," according to the group's website.
Ok I'm unsure where we disagree on? I said that they had to implement these measures bc people can't be trusted other than to act in their own self interests. I mean look at the TP shortage

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Post by CORE-TEN » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:23 pm

Donnie Brasco wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:07 pm
Italy is still more dense than Fla. In the US we have a lot of major cities, but they continue dwindling out to the suburbs. In Europe and other countries its just a mass of continuous dense dwellings
Wha?

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:27 pm

Pabst wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:26 pm
StillJones wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:58 pm
To date, South Korea has tested 295,000 people, and they have returned a positive rate of 2.88%.

Applying that infection rate to the entire US population equates to 1,000,000 people total. And that doesn't even factor in selection bias in testing.
Might want to check your math...
330,000,000 * 0.0288 = 9,504,000

and that 2.88% infection rate is for a society that is actively testing 100,000 people per day to contain the infected & most people wear masks everywhere. Will probably be higher in most Western countries.
That's what i get for doing two different things at once. I'm combining several different numbers

South Korea has peaked at ~8,500 infections - As stated, they jumped on it earlier, but they also had a higher outbreak earlier. Total infection rate there is .016%

I'm still going to hold that 1,000,000 requiring hospitalization in the US is a stupidly high assumption.
I think it's kind of a worst-case if people continue to ignore the problem and don't alter their behavior. Japan kicked this thing's ass but they are culturally a whole lot more used to compliance than the US, which couldn't be less so.

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Post by Professor Half Wit » Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:34 pm

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 7:27 pm
I think it's kind of a worst-case if people continue to ignore the problem and don't alter their behavior. Japan kicked this thing's ass but they are culturally a whole lot more used to compliance than the US, which couldn't be less so.
American: Give me liberty to do whatever I feel like doing when I feel like doing it or give me death.

Coronavirus: Sure thing!
"Just don't kill us."

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Post by K_C_ » Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:09 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:50 pm
I see our resident expert epidemiologists are letting us all know this isn't serious, mocking and ridiculing what most of the world is doing.

Ain't america great?
Yep, when their relatives start dying (and some will) these folks will take this a little more serious I'm sure.

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Post by truckstoppornpatron » Thu Mar 19, 2020 11:57 pm

K_C_ wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 9:09 pm
CORE-TEN wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 9:50 pm
I see our resident expert epidemiologists are letting us all know this isn't serious, mocking and ridiculing what most of the world is doing.

Ain't america great?
Yep, when their relatives start dying (and some will) these folks will take this a little more serious I'm sure.
.

Real Himmlers don't die mein homie.. I say bring the pain.

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Post by franco>madden » Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:54 am

stinger8 wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:29 pm
Old School wrote:
Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:01 am
stinger8 wrote:
Sun Mar 15, 2020 10:21 pm


Based on a mortality rate of 7.5% in Italy (1800 dead 24,000 infected) which WILL be higher in USA due to obesity/food quality etc at the same infection rate in Italy about 10,000 Americans will die. Now Italy quarantined whole geographic areas to get this mortality rate USA cant because some peoples kids have to wrestle and other people are worried about money or watching golf maybe 20,000 people may die but hey if its not me what the fuck??? Old school stand up and tell one of the 10,000 your golf or money were more important than their life :roll: :roll:
22,000 dead Americans this flu season, less than 200 dead Americans from pandemic Chinese flu and most of those deceased are over 80 and suffering with other ailments. No American under 60 has passed from this virus bioengineered in a Chinese lab. The projected extrapolations from other nations claims are unfounded. We're being snookered, our economy is being slaughtered, we are suffering from the supposed protection, not from the virus.
Oooops
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/yo ... li=AAggNb9
Uh, no.

Well here's something to chew on while the freaking out continues ... At least one new study cited by the NY Times and The Hill indicates that even in woefully under-prepared and/or criminally complicit China a couple months back, the mortality rate was bad but much lower than the #s I've seen being thrown around here and elsewhere ...

https://thehill.com/changing-america/we ... lower-than

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Post by Obviously » Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:34 am

Screenshot_20200319-170855.png
Screenshot_20200319-170855.png (1.43 MiB) Viewed 306 times
#NoMoTomlin
#BecauseTomlin
#FireTomlin
#SuchIsLife
#Obviously

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Post by BouldernBun » Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:55 am

A dear friend of mine has this shit and if it happens to you or a loved one it will not matter how many $ the man sends your way. I think everyone is overreacting to an extent but if you get it you won't. I think we have all been exposed already. I am 63 and healthy knock on wood, mom is 84 not healthy, wife is 69 not healthy. I just try to do the hunter gatherer essentials only. But I'm the one going out there (getting away from the house and the wife and mom!! Thank God!!!! A risk I am willing to take!! LOL..) but bringing this shit home to either of them is not somewhere I want to go. Like most times it will probably boil down to dumb luck or genetics.

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Post by CORE-TEN » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:00 pm

BouldernBun wrote:
Fri Mar 20, 2020 5:55 am
but bringing this shit home to either of them is not somewhere I want to go.
Unfortunately, you are dependent on others to keep your family safe. Are you confident that will happen in this country of freedom and fuck you?

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Post by Thrillsseeker » Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:13 pm

Are people freaking out? Yup.

Have I downplayed this entire thing? Yup.

My 27 yr old daughter and I spoke earlier. She lives in Buffalo. Has been working in an office for two weeks now since she can not take appointments and travel to meet patients. (She’s a sign language interpreter) She found out today the lady she’s shared an office with for the last two weeks tested positive yesterday. She’s terrified.

This sucks.

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Post by R_S » Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 am

https://m.calcalistech.com/Article.aspx?guid=3800632

This guys pretty smart. Hes is thinking on an Entirely different plane than epidemiologists. So china is petering out at what? 3-4k deaths

And im supposed to believe that 400k to 1.6 million Anericans will die?

I already know what will happen. Less than 10k will die and the "experts" will claim social distancing saved us!

Now we have increasing panic each day when the 24/7 news media reports another positive test. Well no shit. Now they are finally testing people and its appears that we are all gonna get it. Wrong. Positives will peter out as testing levels out.


Mortality rate is gonna be well beloe 1% when this thing is said and done. Hell. Id be some of you have already had this fucker a month ago. NBA guys getting tested who are asymptomatic and positive. Stay home, due your part but enough of the doom and gloom. Back to work in April!

Just read the damn article.

Optimism is good for your health.

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Post by Stlcrtn1974 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:38 pm

Sorry, more then 10,000 will die here in the US. This has just started, and us being so unprepared with tests and masks is going to make this probably worse here then anywhere else. I really hope I'm wrong but this is going to be a long next few months.

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Post by Steelersfan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:14 pm

Seems like very small numbers, but I guess can sweep over an area quickly. Jefferson Hosp is the local hosp of my 85 yr old mom & 89 yr old dad. It's the hosp they end up at when it's needed. Do you want an 80 yr old relative needing to go there for a stint operation or a kidney infection at this point? How many elderly people where there at the time this was going on? How many young healthy adults were working there at the time? How many people took this home to their families that are home self quaratining? Hard to say? Let's hope, it doesn't sweep the area or spread from there.

https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/ ... ny-county/

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Post by Kodiak » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:36 pm

Stlcrtn1974 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:38 pm
Sorry, more then 10,000 will die here in the US.
Well, that would be about 1/3 of a typical flu season.

It's going to be quite a bit worse than Trump says. But for god's sake, stop fucking watching CNN.
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Post by Kodiak » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:43 pm

R_S wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:36 am
Mortality rate is gonna be well beloe 1% when this thing is said and done
Despite the rest of the diarrhea in your post, this might actually be correct.

This is @ 4X more contagious than the flu, and up to 5X more deadly. The extremely optimistic mortality rate of 0.5% you are citing relies on the hospitals not being overwhelmed. That can only be the case if we "flatten the curve".
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Post by truckstoppornpatron » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:26 pm

I shake my schlong in defiance at this virus! Any microbe named after a beer can't be that bad.

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Post by 955876 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:40 pm

Any microbe named after a beer can't be that bad.
But what if it is named after a bad beer to begin with??

I have a hard time doing beer anymore anyways. Maybe on a hot summer day by the pool but other than that don't really partake much. Just fills me up.

Have really gotten into different whiskeys. There is place close to my office that gets in all kinds of hard to come by bottles. Owner is very generous in giving a taste as well.

Typically if I buy one, he's poured me a taste of a couple others.

Gets stuff you'd never find in a BevMo or other liquor retailers.

With no football going on, wouldn't mind talking whiskey if some others were on board. Could have a thread on the other page or something.
Last edited by 955876 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 5:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by R_S » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:41 pm

Stlcrtn1974 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:38 pm
Sorry, more then 10,000 will die here in the US. This has just started, and us being so unprepared with tests and masks is going to make this probably worse here then anywhere else. I really hope I'm wrong but this is going to be a long next few months.
Someone explain to me south korea and china? How can it be done there? They arent 500% better than dealing with this than the USA. Numbers dont add up. Ill lay down a bet to charity of your choice if the US has more die than an average flu season.

Did anyone actually read the article about the nobel laureate biophysicist?

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Post by CdnSteelerFan » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:46 pm

My daughter was supposed to go to Europe.
My wife had a scheduled surgery Tuesday.
I had low hemoglobin (63) and water pills were messing with my kidneys, which got me 3 days in the hospital.

Helluva week for us.
Removed from the transplant list, seems I'm doing well. Now I get kidney issues!

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Post by Jobu » Sun Mar 22, 2020 4:51 pm

Kodiak wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:36 pm
Stlcrtn1974 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:38 pm
Sorry, more then 10,000 will die here in the US.
Well, that would be about 1/3 of a typical flu season.

It's going to be quite a bit worse than Trump says. But for god's sake, stop fucking watching CNN.
Why the hell would anyone watch CNN?

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