What will the NFL season actually look like.

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Stallworth16
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What will the NFL season actually look like.

Post by Stallworth16 » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:04 pm

I know the NFL is considering starting the season as late as October 15th now.

Nobody knows for sure, but I’m wondering what you guys think. Will there be a normal training camp. Will there be games. Will fans be allowed in the stadium or maybe empty stands with TV only.

Today’s links on the subject:
https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/ ... l-lv-tampa

https://theriotreport.com/nfl-making-mu ... 20-season/
Last edited by Stallworth16 on Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:12 pm, edited 3 times in total.



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Post by SteelPro » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:19 pm

I don’t think delaying is a good idea. Most of the epidemiologists are predicting/modeling a second wave in the fall and winter. This timeline delays right into that. I think they are better off getting the season started on time and let the chips fall where they may. Perhaps some games would need relocated. New York, Seattle, LA, and SF may still need heavy restrictions size of gatherings. But if at all possible they should try to start in early September as usual. They may need expanded rosters though to account for a shorter training camp/preseason.
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Post by COR-TEN » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:50 pm

SteelPro wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:19 pm
I don’t think delaying is a good idea. Most of the epidemiologists are predicting/modeling a second wave in the fall and winter. This timeline delays right into that. I think they are better off getting the season started on time and let the chips fall where they may. Perhaps some games would need relocated. New York, Seattle, LA, and SF may still need heavy restrictions size of gatherings. But if at all possible they should try to start in early September as usual. They may need expanded rosters though to account for a shorter training camp/preseason.
The NFL plans to start on schedule.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... -scheduled

I can also imagine an abbreviated season. 8-10 games with 2 preseason. Football activities (OTA's camp etc ) starting in mid to late august/ early september. Regular season staring in october. Maybe with stadiums at half capacity, an empty seat between spectators. Masks required and temp checks at entry. No alcohol. The point of postponing the start is to ramp up the protocol for disinfecting, PPE, and testing, if they haven't already started. Based on the above posted article, it looks like the NFL has already made plans and executing them in preparation for a normal start.

I can also imagine it all coming to a close in late Nov/ December if a second Covid 19 wave hits. Maybe you're right SteelPro. Get it started asap and see where it goes. . .but stopping the season at the quarter pole or thereabouts would suck, from a fan perspective. But at least the industry would have made a decent percentage of normal profits. Because you know the owners are worried about their bank accounts.
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Post by Jobu » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:50 pm
SteelPro wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:19 pm
I don’t think delaying is a good idea. Most of the epidemiologists are predicting/modeling a second wave in the fall and winter. This timeline delays right into that. I think they are better off getting the season started on time and let the chips fall where they may. Perhaps some games would need relocated. New York, Seattle, LA, and SF may still need heavy restrictions size of gatherings. But if at all possible they should try to start in early September as usual. They may need expanded rosters though to account for a shorter training camp/preseason.
The NFL plans to start on schedule.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300000 ... -scheduled

I can also imagine an abbreviated season. 8-10 games with 2 preseason. Football activities (OTA's camp etc ) starting in mid to late august/ early september. Regular season staring in october. Maybe with stadiums at half capacity, an empty seat between spectators. Masks required and temp checks at entry. No alcohol. The point of postponing the start is to ramp up the protocol for disinfecting, PPE, and testing, if they haven't already started. Based on the above posted article, it looks like the NFL has already made plans and executing them in preparation for a normal start.

I can also imagine it all coming to a close in late Nov/ December if a second Covid 19 wave hits. Maybe you're right SteelPro. Get it started asap and see where it goes. . .but stopping the season at the quarter pole or thereabouts would suck, from a fan perspective. But at least the industry would have made a decent percentage of normal profits. Because you know the owners are worried about their bank accounts.
No alcohol?!?!? :shock: Count me out!
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Post by Steelperch » Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 pm

I’m thinking they play, no fans. Players get temperature taken before contests etc...
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Post by COR-TEN » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:06 pm

Steelperch wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 pm
I’m thinking they play, no fans. Players get temperature taken before contests etc...
So piping fan noise into stadiums would be acceptable? Hell, we've been accustomed to canned laughter for sit coms for decades that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch. A guy in the booth turns up the crowd noise on 3rd and 8 at the 12. Then they can CGI fans into the seats. . . Or better yet. Use stadium video from last year.
Jobu wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 pm
No alcohol?!?!? :shock: Count me out!
'Cause we all know alcohol is always good for self restraint. :lol:
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Post by SteelPro » Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:14 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:06 pm
Steelperch wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 pm
I’m thinking they play, no fans. Players get temperature taken before contests etc...
So piping fan noise into stadiums would be acceptable? Hell, we've been accustomed to canned laughter for sit coms for decades that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch. A guy in the booth turns up the crowd noise on 3rd and 8 at the 12. Then they can CGI fans into the seats. . . Or better yet. Use stadium video from last year.
Jobu wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 pm
No alcohol?!?!? :shock: Count me out!
'Cause we all know alcohol is always good for self restraint. :lol:
The real question is will they still play Renegade in the 4th quarter in an empty Heinz Field?
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Post by Ice » Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:02 pm

I feel like the answer to that is obvious, Pro.
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Post by swissvale72 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:53 am

CORE-TEN wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:06 pm
Steelperch wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 pm
I’m thinking they play, no fans. Players get temperature taken before contests etc...
So piping fan noise into stadiums would be acceptable? Hell, we've been accustomed to canned laughter for sit coms for decades that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch. A guy in the booth turns up the crowd noise on 3rd and 8 at the 12. Then they can CGI fans into the seats. . . Or better yet. Use stadium video from last year.
Jobu wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 pm
No alcohol?!?!? :shock: Count me out!
'Cause we all know alcohol is always good for self restraint. :lol:
I agree with Perch...and fuck the noise.

I don't know the economics, but the NFL doesn't really NEED ticket revenue, and they really wouldn't give a fuck about all of the other economic impacts of no gameday crowds, to bar/restauarants (if they're even open), etc.

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Post by Quixotic » Wed Apr 29, 2020 4:27 pm

Regular season games going into January. That’s 6-7 weeks of ACTUAL winter for NFC and AFC East and North. I don’t think a virus can survive Buffalo in January. I know I can’t. Just sayin’.

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Post by R_S » Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:00 pm

I think by the end of June and early July, the virus will be talked about less and less, and will be moving out of the 24 hour news cycle. At least for a few months. It would make zero sense to delay the season until a time when there is speculation the virus will come back. If anything they should start the season in early July and be done by thanksgiving!

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:36 pm

they will play....just no fans....which will be great for the Steelers
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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed Apr 29, 2020 8:25 pm

CORE-TEN wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:06 pm
Steelperch wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:55 pm
I’m thinking they play, no fans. Players get temperature taken before contests etc...
So piping fan noise into stadiums would be acceptable? Hell, we've been accustomed to canned laughter for sit coms for decades that it wouldn't be that much of a stretch. A guy in the booth turns up the crowd noise on 3rd and 8 at the 12. Then they can CGI fans into the seats. . . Or better yet. Use stadium video from last year.
Jobu wrote:
Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:53 pm
No alcohol?!?!? :shock: Count me out!
'Cause we all know alcohol is always good for self restraint. :lol:
I believe I gave my idea on the predraft podcast but it may have been on Feeling A Draft––have fans all connected via the or phone conference call-- mix together all their noise into the stadium and pump it through the PA.
1 20 Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
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Post by Kodiak » Wed Apr 29, 2020 9:29 pm

If Madden can create artificial crowd noise, it can't be that hard for the NFL to do it. But it will be really weird watching games with empty stadiums. They can probably fix that, too.

Otherwise, in stadiums designed for 60k people, I do believe you can bring in at least a few thousand fans (wearing masks) and still practice social distancing.
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Post by El Kabong » Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:40 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:36 pm
they will play....just no fans....which will be great for the Steelers
Why?
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Post by K_C_ » Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:43 am

If they play (and that's a much bigger "if" than people think) it'll be with no fans for sure.

This thing ain't going away anytime soon.
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Post by Steelafan77 » Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:08 am

NFL Says 2020 Season Is Scheduled To Start On Time In September
@NFLprguy
Should be out by May 9th as we've said. Kickoff slated for Sept. 10 and the 101th season concludes w/ Super Bowl LV in Tampa on Feb. 7, 2021.https://twitter.com/NFLprguy/status/1255575151514718213
Awesome! :D
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Post by Kodiak » Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:48 am

K_C_ wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:43 am
If they play (and that's a much bigger "if" than people think) it'll be with no fans for sure.
Too lazy to look-up the numbers, but I'm guessing only 10-20% of revenues come from ticket sales (and related concessions, etc). What that means is most teams are going to lose money (cash flow only, the value of the teams is still increasing if teams seek to monetize that).

The billionaires might be willing to lose a little money for one season. But I'll bet that they attempt to renegotiate the television deals. All the fans that would have been at games are now glued to their tv. And it's not just sports that are shutdown, it's also Hollywood. That means come fall that the NFL will be THE ONLY NEW & ORIGINAL CONTENT ON TV!!!!!

I don't think they'll be successful in renegotiating, but they could add additional primetime games and maybe share in the revenue. If there's no college football, they'll move half the games to Saturday, and add an extra game on Thursday and Monday nights.
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Post by SteelPro » Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:20 pm

Kodiak wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:48 am
K_C_ wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:43 am
If they play (and that's a much bigger "if" than people think) it'll be with no fans for sure.
Too lazy to look-up the numbers, but I'm guessing only 10-20% of revenues come from ticket sales (and related concessions, etc). What that means is most teams are going to lose money (cash flow only, the value of the teams is still increasing if teams seek to monetize that).

The billionaires might be willing to lose a little money for one season. But I'll bet that they attempt to renegotiate the television deals. All the fans that would have been at games are now glued to their tv. And it's not just sports that are shutdown, it's also Hollywood. That means come fall that the NFL will be THE ONLY NEW & ORIGINAL CONTENT ON TV!!!!!

I don't think they'll be successful in renegotiating, but they could add additional primetime games and maybe share in the revenue. If there's no college football, they'll move half the games to Saturday, and add an extra game on Thursday and Monday nights.
Packers being a publicly owned business must report their financials. They reported 43% of their revenues in 2018 was local... ticket sales, concessions, signage, and corporate sponsorships. Most of that revenue disappears if no asses are in seats this year. The real negotiation will be with the player association. No way owners will be paying players full salaries when revenues will be taking such a steep haircut.
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Post by COR-TEN » Thu Apr 30, 2020 6:02 pm

Small market teams don't necessarily rely on ticket, F&B, merch sales, and parking, etc, but it supplements profits from the NFL ad revenue and broadcast rights. It's a loss either way, but even with 2/3rds a season, they'll still make bucket loads of cash.
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Post by Kodiak » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:33 pm

SteelPro wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:20 pm
Packers being a publicly owned business must report their financials. They reported 43% of their revenues in 2018 was local... ticket sales, concessions, signage, and corporate sponsorships. Most of that revenue disappears if no asses are in seats this year. The real negotiation will be with the player association. No way owners will be paying players full salaries when revenues will be taking such a steep haircut.
Thanks for not being lazy. That's pretty shocking. I saw an estimate in 2015 that only about 50% of revenues came from tv. Not sure how big merch sales are. Packers might be a little higher than some, but safe bet that 35-40% of revenues come from butts in seat.

That definitely makes the economics a lot more complicated. Obviously the owners can absorb those losses, but they may have to liquidate other assets in order to free up the needed cash flow. Not chump change, either - the losses could easily run $50-100M....mostly offset by a gain in franchise values (but that doesn't help the cash flow issue).

Just not seeing a lot of leverage to renegotiate salaries with players. Aaron Rogers is already bitching about not being compensated for a 17th game - I'm guessing a 30% paycut goes over like a wet fart. But it would be a PR nightmare for the owners to cry about the losses. But if there's no college football (good chance there isn't) it's a win-win for everyone to spread schedules for more primetime games.
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Post by SteelPro » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:43 pm

Kodiak wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:33 pm
SteelPro wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 5:20 pm
Packers being a publicly owned business must report their financials. They reported 43% of their revenues in 2018 was local... ticket sales, concessions, signage, and corporate sponsorships. Most of that revenue disappears if no asses are in seats this year. The real negotiation will be with the player association. No way owners will be paying players full salaries when revenues will be taking such a steep haircut.
Thanks for not being lazy. That's pretty shocking. I saw an estimate in 2015 that only about 50% of revenues came from tv. Not sure how big merch sales are. Packers might be a little higher than some, but safe bet that 35-40% of revenues come from butts in seat.

That definitely makes the economics a lot more complicated. Obviously the owners can absorb those losses, but they may have to liquidate other assets in order to free up the needed cash flow. Not chump change, either - the losses could easily run $50-100M....mostly offset by a gain in franchise values (but that doesn't help the cash flow issue).

Just not seeing a lot of leverage to renegotiate salaries with players. Aaron Rogers is already bitching about not being compensated for a 17th game - I'm guessing a 30% paycut goes over like a wet fart. But it would be a PR nightmare for the owners to cry about the losses. But if there's no college football (good chance there isn't) it's a win-win for everyone to spread schedules for more primetime games.
I actually think owners are in a pretty good spot to negotiate. The alternative for the players would be sit out and get nothing. The cap is already calculated based off of percentages of revenues so not having those revenues would put downward pressure on salaries in the future anyway. I think there will be some sort of salary adjustment for all these leagues.
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Post by Kodiak » Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:49 pm

SteelPro wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:43 pm
I actually think owners are in a pretty good spot to negotiate. The alternative for the players would be sit out and get nothing. The cap is already calculated based off of percentages of revenues so not having those revenues would put downward pressure on salaries in the future anyway. I think there will be some sort of salary adjustment for all these leagues.
I don't disagree. I just think in the current environment if there were no NFL because of a dispute over revenues the owners would get almost all of the blame, justifiably.

If money gets in the way of an NFL season, wow there are going to be some very very very very very angry fans.
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Post by Texas Black & Gold » Sun May 03, 2020 2:20 am

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:36 pm
they will play....just no fans....which will be great for the Steelers
I think the Steelers play better with fans cheering them on.
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Post by Kodiak » Sun May 03, 2020 2:23 am

Texas Black & Gold wrote:
Sun May 03, 2020 2:20 am
I think the Steelers play better with fans cheering them on.
Offense definitely does better without opposing fan noise. Could be part of the struggles for the offense on the road, because sometimes it's harder for Ben to communicate all the adjustments.
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Post by stillthere » Mon May 04, 2020 12:41 am

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nzQ9yGAn1A[/youtube]

They get into some scenarios of scheduling the division and conference games late in the schedule and having to adjust the schedule in this conversation. What if they need to lop off 4 games or some shit then they will probably schedule cross conference games to start the year etc...

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Post by Kodiak » Mon May 04, 2020 2:08 am

stillthere wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 12:41 am
They get into some scenarios of scheduling the division and conference games late in the schedule and having to adjust the schedule in this conversation. What if they need to lop off 4 games or some shit then they will probably schedule cross conference games to start the year etc...
I think they'll cancel OTA's, and possibly mini-camp, but preseason should proceed as normal. The big question is whether they'll finish the year.

Otherwise the fairest thing as far as determining playoffs is to frontload the 4 non-conference games if for some reason the season starts late.
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Post by meanjustinbarlow » Mon May 04, 2020 4:09 am

Im not worried. They have to play the games with people in the stands or else theyll just tailgate outside and/or riot and burn every city down.

The hamfisted government response has nuked the public trust in authority. The majority of people are out of fucks to give about the virus. Even as the media tries to brainwash otherwise.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Mon May 04, 2020 9:58 am

More and more numbers are rising in the US.

I think they are gonna shut down the season.
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Post by meanjustinbarlow » Mon May 04, 2020 2:24 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Mon May 04, 2020 9:58 am
More and more numbers are rising in the US.

I think they are gonna shut down the season.
But isn’t that just because hospitals are incentivized to bill for COVID? Someone can die of a gunshot wound, but if they test positive for COVID, its a COVID death right now.

Public opinion is souring on this quick. I am definitely seeing a change in tone from the public.

It is serious, but the blowback from these restrictions is erupting.

I can’t imagine the riots we will see if they try to take away football.

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