Steelers history of finding the next QB...

[Scunge]

I read a lot of different views of what the Steelers should or should not do. Don't just grab a QB in this draft, wait until 2023. Wait a couple years and build the trenches. Some others say grab a vet QB to be the bridge for a few years until the time is right, then pounce on the right prospect.

I don't think there is one right answer and it really involves a lot of dumb blind luck. If you had told me how the events of the 2004 draft would unfold beforehand and that we would be able to draft our HOF QB at pick 11, I would not have believed you. Nobody would have. Ben was the 3rd QB chosen after Manning pouted like a baby and forced a trade that saw both Eli and Rivers going before Ben, causing Ben to slide right to us. It was all such dumb blind luck.

The years between Bradshaw and Ben are known as dark times, a wasteland of QB play by some. I lived through those years and was a fan of those teams and as I always say to people, other teams would love to have the success of those 1983 to 2003 Steelers teams.

Those Steeler teams in that 21 year period, went 186-150-1 from Bradshaw's last game to Ben's first game. That is roughly a 9-7 record over that stretch, with 9 division crowns and 2 other seasons in which we made the playoffs, so 11 total seasons that we went to the post season. We played in 20 playoff games, with a record of 9-11. In 1984, 1994, 1995, 1997 and 2001 we made the AFC Championship game. 5 AFC championship games with 4 of those being losses, we did win in 1995 to get to the Super Bowl but lost to the Cowboys.

So, that 'wasteland', those 'dark times' between Bradshaw and Ben, we went 186-150-1, made the playoffs 11 times, had a 9-11 playoff record, made the AFC championship game 5 times and went to the Super Bowl one time. Again, there are teams in the NFL that would love to have that success.

Who were the quarterbacks of those times? Well, Mark Malone was a first round pick in 1980. He got his chance in 1984 and that year was one of my fondest Steeler teams. Who can forget Louis Lipps? Or John Stallworth's great comeback player of the year tour de force? 80 catches, 1,395 yards and 11 TDs? Or how about Mike Merriweather notching 15 sacks? That team made it to the AFC championship game but lost to some guy named Dan Marino.

Bubby Brister was a 3rd round pick in 1986, in 1989 that was a fun ride for that playoff run. They had an overtime win against the Houston Oilers and then lost a very close game to the Denver Broncos losing 24-23. It was always great to watch Noll stick it to Jerry Glanville at that time. The defense was really starting to have players emerge. Lloyd was over his injuries and starting to shine, Woodson made the Pro Bowl, Lake started 15 games as a rookie at SS.

Neil O'Donnell was a 3rd round pick in 1990. He had a 3-4 playoff record and we went to the playoffs 4 straight years and made 2 AFC championship game appearances and one Super Bowl appearance.

Kordell Stewart was a 2nd round pick in 1995. We had 2 AFC championship game appearances with him as the QB.

The Steelers would routinely bring in failed high first round draft picks and lowly journeymen QBs to be backup QBs. Todd Blackledge, Mike Tomczak, etc

A few times they would take a flyer on a former first round QB in hopes of finding a starter. Tommy Maddox, Paxton Lynch, Dwayne Haskins with Maddox being the most successful of that group, so far. I don't really think Haskins is the answer, but still, them bringing him in is consistent with what the Steeler have done over the years.

Mason Rudolph was a 3rd round pick in 2018. I am not going to mention the 4th rounders they have taken such as Laundry Jones or Josh Dobbs because I think there is a clear distinction in a Steeler QB taken in rounds 3 and higher and those taken after that 3rd round.

I view the Steelers finding a QB, a legitimate starting QB that can make you a winning franchise and get you to the playoffs, like taking a chance on scatchoff lottery tickets. They are going to bring in failed former high picks, like a Haskins, spend 2nd and 3rd rounders on the Stewart and O'Donnell and Rudolphs and eventually spend a first rounder on somebody.

But let us not think that spending a first or 2nd rounder on a QB is going to set this franchise back, or somehow be a misstep. This team, all teams routinely blow first and second round picks and most have a hard time resigning the ones that are successful when their rookie contracts are up. If the Steelers want to spend a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick, say every other year or every 3rd year in trying to find a QB, I am all for it. You feed the position, you take as many chances as you want within reason. So you spend a 2nd rounder on a QB that does not work out, so what? I mean gasp, that 2nd rounder could have been Sean Davis or a Mike Adams, right?

To me the Steelers would be wise to find a vet QB like a Mitch Trubisky to be the bridge QB and then take a chance on a developmental QB in say round 2 either this year or next while you fill out the trenches and roster.

One thing is certain, just because the Steelers do not have a franchise QB currently on the roster does not mean they will be perennial losers that never make the playoffs. Without a Ben or Terry, this Steelers team still made 5 AFC championship games and made it to 1 Super Bowl.

[jebrick]

In the salary cap era, I do think there is an answer. Build a good team, go get your franchise QB. Cowher did it. Pete Carrol did it. Andy Reid did it., Shaun McVay did it. Bruce Ariens did it.

now you can get your franchise via the draft( risk) or via FA/Trade( expensive) but it works a lot better than drafting a QB and hoping he will lift your team.

[Ice]

In the salary cap era, I do think there is an answer. Build a good team, go get your franchise QB. Cowher did it. Pete Carrol did it. Andy Reid did it., Shaun McVay did it. Bruce Ariens did it.

now you can get your franchise via the draft( risk) or via FA/Trade( expensive) but it works a lot better than drafting a QB and hoping he will lift your team.

This is definitely the game plan to adopt, and it's been one of the few nearly 100% things over two, nearly three decades in the NFL.

[COR-TEN]

Nice post. Thanks.

[bradshaw2ben]

It’s not the misstep itself, it’s the opportunity cost. As you can see by the record you laid out, they only picked a QB after giving one 5-6 years to see if they pan out. I’m going to continue to shout it to the rooftops: I will take the 2023-2026 QB drafts over anyone drafted last year or this year. There’s some amazing QB talent about to come out, plus Manning the younger will undoubtedly be out by then. Reminder: the Steelers live in a world where Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen are the standard, and LJ8, Jones, Carr are the minimum. Tommy Maddox isn’t cutting it in this new environment of QB play.

[rocky mtn stiller]

Nice post, thank you. Going through the list I couldn't help but remember Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich and Michael Vick also were high picks that were able to fit in nicely with the team. The first two provided great vet presence and leadership.

[DP39]

It’s not the misstep itself, it’s the opportunity cost. As you can see by the record you laid out, they only picked a QB after giving one 5-6 years to see if they pan out. I’m going to continue to shout it to the rooftops: I will take the 2023-2026 QB drafts over anyone drafted last year or this year. There’s some amazing QB talent about to come out, plus Manning the younger will undoubtedly be out by then. Reminder: the Steelers live in a world where Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen are the standard, and LJ8, Jones, Carr are the minimum. Tommy Maddox isn’t cutting it in this new environment of QB play.

While I appreciate Scunges post, this is where I'm at, as well.

Please don't let them mortgage the farm to move up for ANY QB in this draft, much less draft one before the 5th round. My gut tells me that MT will get his Willis no matter the draft cost (and it will be high). After all, he's not tied to it. That's something KC decided to do right before he road off into the sunset, right?

[Kodiak.]

I'm on-board with recycling blue chip talents that flamed out elsewhere. Haskins, Trubisky, etc... It costs almost nothing, but there is almost certainly a Kurt Warner somewhere in that group, or at least a Tannenhill. And this isn't 20 years ago - guys like Flacco and Foles have won rings. And I never was that impressed with Eli Manning who, frankly, would have been done as a starter after 3-4 years if not for his name.

The list of SB losing QB's is even more mixed. You don't need the HOFer to get there, or win it, any more. Yes, it helps. But throwing high picks at it on the regular doesn't.

[Ice]

It’s not the misstep itself, it’s the opportunity cost. As you can see by the record you laid out, they only picked a QB after giving one 5-6 years to see if they pan out. I’m going to continue to shout it to the rooftops: I will take the 2023-2026 QB drafts over anyone drafted last year or this year. There’s some amazing QB talent about to come out, plus Manning the younger will undoubtedly be out by then. Reminder: the Steelers live in a world where Burrow, Mahomes, Herbert, Allen are the standard, and LJ8, Jones, Carr are the minimum. Tommy Maddox isn’t cutting it in this new environment of QB play.

While I appreciate Scunges post, this is where I'm at, as well.

Please don't let them mortgage the farm to move up for ANY QB in this draft, much less draft one before the 5th round. My gut tells me that MT will get his Willis no matter the draft cost (and it will be high). After all, he's not tied to it. That's something KC decided to do right before he road off into the sunset, right?

Thoroughly agree on B2B's post, and sadly, I'm inclined to agree on DP's, as well.

[jebrick]

That Trent Dilffer has as many SB rings as Aaron Rogers should tell you all you need to know.

[bradshaw2ben]

Yeah, guys who make the handful of plays you need to win are underrated and the guys who have flashy stats but come up small when they need to shine are overrated as hell. That’s what it tells me.

Now a guy as good as Ben, playing for a solid franchise, only getting to three Super Bowls in 18 years—that’s says a lot more about how difficult it is.

[Kodiak.]

Yeah, guys who make the handful of plays you need to win are underrated and the guys who have flashy stats but come up small when they need to shine are overrated as hell. That’s what it tells me.

The former is becoming more and more likely given all the rules protecting the QB and favoring the offenses, along with an imbalance of talent favoring WR over DB.

[yygy]

Good post @Scunge

How I look at it with the benefit of a little hindsight is when Ben went down in ‘19 that was the end. I know sad he’s a warrior and all that but that was the end of the run. That season both D and O we’re good enough to make one more run. But things unfolded the way they did.

So this is not rebuild year 1. We’re in rebuild year 3. I have been saying since 2017 they should draft a quarterback for just this reason. Steelers had a bit of advantage in that their rebuild years they could still get to the playoffs. Just like in those historical examples.

Anyway lot to talk about rebuild the trenches and I wholeheartedly agree. Steelers have 60M in cash and plenty of draft picks. Hopefully they can walk and chew gum at the same time. Eight total starters on the line at least three player turnover per year it’s about a 2 1/2 year process max.

My best case is they draft a qb in R1 AND sign a vet like a Mariota or Brissett. Convince me that quarterback is being taken seriously.

They can reload on the fly and be right back in it in no time. no one could’ve guessed 2004 when we were in 2003. That’s the lesson.

[steelmann58]

I can't help but think they looking at Mitch Trub to come in next season.

[Jobu]

You don't need the HOFer to get there, or win it, any more

So I thought I’d take a look at this. In the past 20 years, 15 Super Bowls were won by sure fire HoF QBs.
Brady 7
Ben 2
Peyton 2
Eli 2
Rodgers 1
Brees 1
Two more were won by guys that are very likely HoFers.
Wilson
Mahomes
Three by non HoFers
Johnson
Flacco
Foles

Going back to the first 35 Super Bowls, by my count, 28 of those were won by HoF QBs.
So it looks like 45 of the 55 Super Bowls were won by HoFers or future HoFers.
Having a HoF QB may not be necessary to win the Super Bowl, but it looks like it really increases your chances.

[jebrick]

IMHO, Eli is borderline HOF but meh

[Jobu]

IMHO, Eli is borderline HOF but meh

Eli is going into the HoF. No doubt.

[bradshaw2ben]

@yygy Steelers don’t have $60M. Right now they have less than $32M. Yes, they could cut Tuitt, Schobert, Ebron, Banner, Watt… but they’d have to replace most of them with some kind of comparable cost FA before the draft.

Then there are the guys with one year remaining, like Minkah & DJ8. That number also doesn’t include the tender they already made to Haskins.

Then there are the in-house FAs they want to keep.

Yes, they will have some cap space, but probably not an outrageous amount for new FAs, considering how many expired contracts they have / how few players under contract.

[Jobu]

@yygy Steelers don’t have $60M. Right now they have less than $32M. Yes, they could cut Tuitt, Schobert, Ebron, Banner, Watt… but they’d have to replace most of them with some kind of comparable cost FA before the draft.

Then there are the guys with one year remaining, like Minkah & DJ8. That number also doesn’t include the tender they already made to Haskins.

Then there are the in-house FAs they want to keep.

Yes, they will have some cap space, but probably not an outrageous amount for new FAs, considering how many expired contracts they have / how few players under contract.

And don’t forget the money for the rookie/draft class, and that little kitty they keep on hand for in season emergencies.
The folks that think the Steelers are going to be throwing money around in free agency are in for a rude awakening. My guess it’ll be BAU for the Steelers in the FA period.

[Kodiak.]

And don’t forget the money for the rookie/draft class, and that little kitty they keep on hand for in season emergencies.
The folks that think the Steelers are going to be throwing money around in free agency are in for a rude awakening. My guess it’ll be BAU for the Steelers in the FA period.

But there is another easy $30M there. Tuitt didn't play last year. Watt barely played...Ebron is already gone. Ben's $10M hit will be spread across two years. Schobert wasn't very good, and Banner was even worse the few times he got on the field.

Not sure what's there to "replace". Tuitt is the only questionmark there. The rest have virtually no impact on the team being better or worse. And that $60M pool, call it $50M+ after rookies and cushion, goes to improving the team just about anywhere. Minkah and DJ will get pay days, but there's flexibility in how those deals are structured.

There's not going to be some monster QB splash, but they have some ammunition to sign 2-3 difference makers that can improve the team. Why they would keep the guys mentioned at the expense of actually gettting better players on the field is beyond me.

[bradshaw2ben]

I don't mean replace their production, I mean just you have to sign someone to fill their roles. Schobert was starting. Ebron was TE2. Many of the other FAs were starting.

I think just paying their own FAs or impending FAs they want to keep will be a little pricey:
Witherspoon $8M/yr or
Haden
JuJu at least $14M/per
Adams circa $3M/per
Minkah circa $16M/per
Diontae J circa $15M/per
Edmunds or comparable starter $6M+/per
Haskins $2.5M
Spillane $2.2M
Hassenauer $.8/M

It won't all translate to the 1st year cap hit, but that totals $75.5M in per annum contracts.

[COR-TEN]

I can't help but think they looking at Mitch Trub to come in next season.

Does this fan base know if mitch wants to be a steeler?

[jewelsongs]

I don't extend Johnson yet, we have too many holes to fill. I extend Fitz, and sign Witherspoon or Haden. I try to get Trubiski or Jameis Winston to compete with Mason, and sign Foye Oluokun for LB and sign Ben Jones for C. In the draft, I get Ikem Ekwonu in the first round to play guard for the next 10 years, and get Christian Harris in the second to add to the ILB pool. In the third round I get Logan Hall for rotation in the DL. Fill holes with the rest of the draft and free agency (including our own free agents).

[Mick]

I don't mean replace their production, I mean just you have to sign someone to fill their roles. Schobert was starting. Ebron was TE2. Many of the other FAs were starting.

I think just paying their own FAs or impending FAs they want to keep will be a little pricey:
Witherspoon $8M/yr or
Haden
JuJu at least $14M/per
Adams circa $3M/per
Minkah circa $16M/per
Diontae J circa $15M/per
Edmunds or comparable starter $6M+/per
Haskins $2.5M
Spillane $2.2M
Hassenauer $.8/M

It won't all translate to the 1st year cap hit, but that totals $75.5M in per annum contracts.

witherspoon signed a $4M contract last offseason, then couldn’t get on the field and ended ip starting just three games with the steelers.i don’t see 8M/year in his immediate future.

Juju got 8M, then did nothing all year. I don’t see him commanding much more than he had. For minkah, franchise tag is just $11Mish, so not great bargaining position for him.

Agree on the other numbers.

[bradshaw2ben]

Was going by spotrac numbers. Highest paid safety in the league is Harrison Smith at $16M. I don’t necessarily think Minkah is better, but it’s simply true that guys like Minkah getting the “next” contract are going to at least look for the amount he knows top guys got the last time around.

And if DJ is worth 15, JuJu is definitely worth something conparable. And damn they missed him last year.

Witherspoon is a tough call—he played well. At least as well as $8M/per. I don’t think him sitting on the bench had anything to do with his play. I think maybe they were thinking they could keep him under 25% and sneak a comp pick. Otherwise the decision makes no sense.

[Kodiak.]

Was going by spotrac numbers.

And if I look at your list, 1/3 of the cap on THAT group is pretty dumb.

JuJu is simply not in the same league as Diontae. Haden is getting old. Witherspoon is a nice player, but what has he done to significantly improve on his $4M deal? Edmunds is kind of a jag, and frankly a guy they should look to upgrade in the draft or FA than offer a C2. Haskins is an RFA, but it's hard to see him getting much more than vet min.

Minkah is under contract, so that deal isn't going to spike his current cap hit of $10M+ that much.

[Steelperch]

The Steelers have “found a QB” twice in 90 years. Some of the doorknobs who rushed the last one out the door will be in for a rude awakening.

[Greeksteel]

The Steelers have “found a QB” twice in 90 years. Some of the doorknobs who rushed the last one out the door will be in for a rude awakening.

100%

[bradshaw2ben]

Was going by spotrac numbers.

And if I look at your list, 1/3 of the cap on THAT group is pretty dumb.

JuJu is simply not in the same league as Diontae. Haden is getting old. Witherspoon is a nice player, but what has he done to significantly improve on his $4M deal? Edmunds is kind of a jag, and frankly a guy they should look to upgrade in the draft or FA than offer a C2. Haskins is an RFA, but it's hard to see him getting much more than vet min.

Minkah is under contract, so that deal isn't going to spike his current cap hit of $10M+ that much.

They have to pay Haskins that—that’s the tender amount for “original round tender” which is what they tagged him with IIRC

Even if Wirhrspoon is 4-6 instead of 8 and JuJu is 10, it still uses up a bunch of the space. Also best in mind FA market is not full of enticing names and who the hell wants to come to a rebuilding team with no QB?

[El Kabong]

The Steelers have “found a QB” twice in 90 years. Some of the doorknobs who rushed the last one out the door will be in for a rude awakening.

I hear Bobby Layne was good.