Will Najee ever be a top 10 RB?

[tbsteel]

I think many of us would agree that the second half of the season after the bye was the best Najee has looked as a pro.

After the bye, he ran 154 times for 673 yards (4.3 YPA) and 7 total TDs in 9 games. He looked mostly like the wrecking ball we expected when he was drafted.

But overall, he averaged 3.8 YPA with a little over 60 yards rushing a game on the year. And this was in a 2022 season that saw the NFL average 121.6 YPA rushing overall, the highest mark since 1987. The average carry went 4.5 yards, the highest in NFL history.

And the more you look at it: is Najee even the best RB on his team? I'd argue Warren was the better player with his snaps this year than Najee was with his. He was certainly more explosive, a better receiver, more efficient as a runner and overall (4.9 YPA and over 2 yard more a catch than Najee). Does Najee deserve to "be the guy" next year or should it be a true open competition?

And looking over the rest of the league, there are so many other RBs I'd trade for Najee straight up:

Barkley, Taylor, Jacobs, Chubb, Henry, Mixon, Dobbins, Ekeler, Stevenson, Cook, McCaffrey, Jones, Pollard... and other guys who are just as good if not better with Etienne, Swift, Williams, Herbert, Montgomery, Gibson, Sanders, Hall and probably a few others.

What say you? Will our first round RB ever be a true top 10 player at his position? Or will his limitations with speed/overall explosion always hold him back from that level?

[franco32]

No. He won't be a top 10 RB. Our back half schedule was easier than our front half. I have no doubt that Najee would be contained pretty easily in a big playoff environment.

But we are stuck with him. So the best thing now for us is to continue to pursue the 2 back solution. I think you raise a fair question about Warren. What if he's EVEN BETTER as he makes his leap to year 2? Should we really be taking carries away from him? I think the carries should go more 50/50.

The problem as we know is that Tomlin will never recognize his mistakes. He'll always feature Najee because he invested a 1st on him and he likes his story as a young man.

[Professor Half Wit]

I think he will be a top-10 back but in the 8-10 range.

We underappreciated his injury earlier in the season. Let's face it. The o-line got way better, but part of the o-line looking better was also Najee being healthy and pissed off.

Also, Pat Meyer. This dude might be better than we thought.

Alas, that outside run we saw Etienne ice the game on for the Jags? Najee is never going to do that. But what he can do when he's healthy and the line is on it is wear you down and hold your manhood cheap.

[Mick]

I think the bottom line is he needs to cut weight.

Part of the reason he should be an above average RB is that is a natural receiver, but the problem is he is awful at getting YAC. Like, dead last RB in the league. And watching him, you can see why: he takes forever to start accelerating after the catch. Warren making a catch almost surrounded by defenders feels like a better bet to pick up a first by YAC than Najee when he’s completely uncovered.

But yeah, people getting excited by Najee posting some 4.2 YPC games post bye in a league that averages 4.5 is pretty sad. Najee of the last two games was legit good tho.

[Professor Half Wit]

I think the bottom line is he needs to cut weight.

Part of the reason he should be an above average RB is that is a natural receiver, but the problem is he is awful at getting YAC. Like, dead last RB in the league. And watching him, you can see why: he takes forever to start accelerating after the catch. Warren making a catch almost surrounded by defenders feels like a better bet to pick up a first by YAC than Najee when he’s completely uncovered.

But yeah, people getting excited by Najee posting some 4.2 YPC games post bye in a league that averages 4.5 is pretty sad. Najee of the last two games was legit good tho.

I don't know, Mick. Najee is never going to be that speed back that can, if he gets a shaft of daylight, take it to the house. His skill set is running people over and generating yardage after contact. Not sure him slimming down is going to contribute to what makes him good.

Regarding YAC, I think JuJu this year was by himself like 200 yards behind our entire receiving core in YAC.

The Steelers have a YAC problem across the board.

[langer]

He likes contact and pushing the pile, loves the hurdling and all the glory that brings.

Those are fine, but it seems those take priority over being a productive back. If he's looking to hurdle, he's not running or trying to gain significant yards.

He doesn't see that trading a couple yards for 10 or more is suboptimal.

He would flourish in a scheme that had an emphasis on the RB being in the passing game. He can catch really well.

He's outside the ten imo.

He is way outside the top ten here.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... ushing.htm

[jeemie]

If we develop a two running back system, he doesn't have to be a top 10 running back... Just a pretty good one.

We need to stop getting enamored of having to have studs at every position. We have Pickens, who is going to be a real stud.

We have a very good tandem in Harris and Warren at running back.

We have a Swiss army knife in Conor Hayward and a very serviceable, good tight end in muth.

Show up the offensive line, maybe add a piece or two, and this can be a very good offense. Well of course with the caveat that we get a real offensive coordinator too.

We don't need studs everywhere. We need a lot of good players everywhere.

All those other running backs mentioned in the opening post... Will someone refresh my memory and tell me how many super bowl trophies any of those running backs have?

[Pickett's Platoon]

You could tell something was wrong with him early on.

Come to later find out it was the steel plate and foot sprain.

I think he'll put up top ten #'s next year.

[Mick]

I think the bottom line is he needs to cut weight.

Part of the reason he should be an above average RB is that is a natural receiver, but the problem is he is awful at getting YAC. Like, dead last RB in the league. And watching him, you can see why: he takes forever to start accelerating after the catch. Warren making a catch almost surrounded by defenders feels like a better bet to pick up a first by YAC than Najee when he’s completely uncovered.

But yeah, people getting excited by Najee posting some 4.2 YPC games post bye in a league that averages 4.5 is pretty sad. Najee of the last two games was legit good tho.

I don't know, Mick. Najee is never going to be that speed back that can, if he gets a shaft of daylight, take it to the house. His skill set is running people over and generating yardage after contact. Not sure him slimming down is going to contribute to what makes him good.

Regarding YAC, I think JuJu this year was by himself like 200 yards behind our entire receiving core in YAC.

The Steelers have a YAC problem across the board.

we do have a YAC problem across the board, but i think two different problems. For WRs, i blame routes/canada, as we are an extreme outlier with both of our top wrs and both of our qbs.

For RBs, i think it’s just najee. Warren is fine for YAC. And to the eye test, as above, Najee’s YAC problem is Najee. If Najee could move better, it would also help him get open easier against LBs. Being a natural pass catcher adds 0 value if (1) you can’t get open downfield and (2) you can’t get YAC.

[franco32]

The YAC problem is a combo of scheme design and lack of speed on offense. The scheme problem we know.

But personnel is an issue too. I've been begging for speed for 3 years now. DJ should be able to get YAC but he's more quick than fast. Pickens is a stud, but he's not a burner. He's not a guy who constantly will take the top off the D. That's why he has so many contested catches. Najee we know lacks speed. Muth is really good and he looked quicker and faster this year, but again, he's not a speed guy.

Warren is the only guy in the offense who explodes and accelerates in an elite way. Now, Calvin Austin may bring that, but I'm worried about him being frail.

IMO, we need at least one more burner on the O for it to start putting pressure on NFL Ds.

[Deebo]

If we develop a two running back system, he doesn't have to be a top 10 running back... Just a pretty good one.

I agree with your take- he doesn't need to be a top guy. But that wasn't the question.

As others have laid out, he'll never be a top guy. His vision is average, he deosn't have top end speed/elusiveness and to me if you want to be a top guy you have to at least have 1 of those. Bell had elusiveness and wiggle, that's how he got all his yards. He wasn't a burner by any stretch.

In short, Harris will be productive but never a bell cow. Considering the draft capital given up, he'll always be a disappointment from that perspective.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Najee is a great football player to have on your team. Far better than many others. That counts for something. He’s also shown some real clutch ability

Remember

Lombardis not rushing trophies

[LakecrestSteeler]

I think he will be the bell cow, and top 10 will not matter. And he will do what it takes to make the 2 back system flourish because he seems to have embraced the leadership role. I changed my mind on him completely due to the underreporting of the injury.

He is a gamer. He will get better when the 1st down is needed. He will get better at the end of the game. He will get better when the first down is needed at the end of the game. He will get better in the bigger games and in the playoffs. He will get better when the first down is needed at the end of the game in the playoffs!

His stats are all injury contaminated. I also disagree with the schedule comments. He got better and the line got better, and it had nothing to do with the teams we played. We would have had much different outcomes had we played the Bills, Eagles, Bengals and Dolphins at the end of this past season.

[gpclay]

I think I’ve mentioned this before regarding Najee but my daughter suffered a similar injury playing field hockey (she was a D-I recruit). She had five broken bones in her foot, but got lucky and did not have a lisfranc injury requiring surgery. Even so, she was on the shelf for probably 3-4 months including rehab. It’s hard to imagine jogging with that sort of injury, let alone playing running back on the NFL. I am certain that injury held him back significantly early in the season and recovery from the injury played into his late-season success. I hope he is completely healthy next season and we really see what he can do (as part of a two-back system, hopefully).

[Kodiak.]

The running game was good the 2nd half of the year. Remains to be seen if it was a real improvement or simply the level of competition.

But despite that, they still struggled with play action. Perhaps it was too predictable when they ran it. But that's what is missing to create some easy splash plays.

Najee is a tough, physical runner. Which is about perfect for what Tomlin wants to do - consistent 2-5 yards wears down the D and chews TOP.

Warren is the type of plug-n-play guy that good running schemes get a ton of value from.

It's really not that hard to shorten the game and hang in contention for 500-ish and that #7 seed. That's how Tomlin approaches the game and designs his schemes. And until the expectation is raised, this team will never be playoff competitive because Tomlin coaches to a high floor rather than a high ceiling. This team is simply not built to be capable of running a gauntlet of Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Watson (assuming he regains form next year), etc...in the playoffs.

It's a win to hold those teams to 30 points in a playoff game. We have basically no shot of matching 30 points on offense, though.

[stillthere]

I personally think Najee next season is going to be a dominant force as long as he stays healthy. Having a viable change up with Warren will help Najee throughout the season. I know he won't be breaking away 60 yard TDs any time soon but I could see him leading the league in the 15 -20 yard rushes by a large margin. This will also be semi predicated on the O-line being fairly stable next season. I think next year will be the best football anyone has seen from him to date. Will that make him a top 10 RB? Which metric are we using or what combination of metrics are we using?

[Steelperch]

You’d be hard pressed to name 10 “franchise” RBs in the league. Najee fits what we do. He’d be a lot better with a better OC and line. You can win a lot of games with a durable and physical back that rarely fumbles. He’s around the top 10 backs, on the low end I’d say.

[955876]

This team is simply not built to be capable of running a gauntlet of Burrow, Allen, Herbert, Lawrence, Watson (assuming he regains form next year), etc...in the playoffs.

And if they get past those chumps they’ll still have Mahomes to deal with.

[stillthere]

For RBs, i think it’s just najee. Warren is fine for YAC. And to the eye test, as above, Najee’s YAC problem is Najee. If Najee could move better, it would also help him get open easier against LBs. Being a natural pass catcher adds 0 value if (1) you can’t get open downfield and (2) you can’t get YAC.

I think if Najee gets a swing pass the last person that wants anything to do with that is a CB in the NFL. We didn't get to see him on many this year. Warren is definitely shiftier but I think a fully healthy Najee is going to open eyes in a lot of different ways. I may end up being wrong but after he slammed that falcons CB to the ground he looked like a different player with a different attitude about what was going to be going on.

Tweet has a short video of the body slamming of the DB.
https://twitter.com/WRBolen/status/1599 ... s-video%2F

This still shot is amazing

[stillthere]

The YAC problem is a combo of scheme design and lack of speed on offense. The scheme problem we know.

But personnel is an issue too. I've been begging for speed for 3 years now. DJ should be able to get YAC but he's more quick than fast. Pickens is a stud, but he's not a burner. He's not a guy who constantly will take the top off the D. That's why he has so many contested catches. Najee we know lacks speed. Muth is really good and he looked quicker and faster this year, but again, he's not a speed guy.

Warren is the only guy in the offense who explodes and accelerates in an elite way. Now, Calvin Austin may bring that, but I'm worried about him being frail.

IMO, we need at least one more burner on the O for it to start putting pressure on NFL Ds.

Easiest way to beat that issue is outrun 'em and don't let 'em hit you.

[Quixotic]

I think he will be a top-10 back but in the 8-10 range.

We underappreciated his injury earlier in the season. Let's face it. The o-line got way better, but part of the o-line looking better was also Najee being healthy and pissed off.

Also, Pat Meyer. This dude might be better than we thought.

Alas, that outside run we saw Etienne ice the game on for the Jags? Najee is never going to do that. But what he can do when he's healthy and the line is on it is wear you down and hold your manhood cheap.

Najee on Saint Crispin’s day. Nice reference, perfessor.

[Kodiak.]

I will say this: it's nice to have the 5th year option because I'm not seeing Najee getting that big C2.

Unless Pickett busts, then maybe you're looking around for where to spend money and you like that Najee stays healthy and doesn't fumble - exactly the sort of player Mediocre Mike would build his mediocre team around.

[Jobu]

I will say this: it's nice to have the 5th year option because I'm not seeing Najee getting that big C2.

Unless Pickett busts, then maybe you're looking around for where to spend money and you like that Najee stays healthy and doesn't fumble - exactly the sort of player Mediocre Mike would build his mediocre team around.

Tomlin LOOOVES Najee. Barring a serious injury, he’s getting a C2.

[Havoc]

Najee was a stupid 1st round pick. When he was drafted I said enjoy the 7.7 Y/R.

He made a nice catch for late TD vs Ravens.

Yes he was better when he got healthy.

He will never have the impact the yinzer portion of the fan base thinks he's having.

I like our UDFA RB more.

The 2 headed RB unit is effective.

[StillerInCT]

Najee behind a competent offensive line with a RB that can rotate him out once in a while can be plenty effective for us. He doesn't need to be a top 10 RB even though he's probably right around there anyway.

[Deebo]

I will say this: it's nice to have the 5th year option because I'm not seeing Najee getting that big C2.

Unless Pickett busts, then maybe you're looking around for where to spend money and you like that Najee stays healthy and doesn't fumble - exactly the sort of player Mediocre Mike would build his mediocre team around.

Tomlin LOOOVES Najee. Barring a serious injury, he’s getting a C2.

Unfortunately, this is true.

Tomlin sees Harris as a long term leader on this team.

[Gonzo]

No

[Mick]

Optimistically, if you extrapolate his performance in the last 9 games to a full 17 game schedule,

It comes to 1270 yards at 4.1 YPC, 11TDs. Those are decent fantasy numbers, but 1270 would have put him about tied with Sanders for 5th, and none of the top 10 yardage RBs had less than 4.4 YPC. Really, only 2 of the top 19 RBs had less than 4.3, Najee and Jamaal Williams. So even if we imagine how Najee might look in the best of circumstances, healthy 17 games, rarely down by more than a score, good blocking, vulnerable defenses, etc etc, Najee still wouldn’t make a strong cases to be a top 10 RB.

[bradshaw2ben]

Optimistically, if you extrapolate his performance in the last 9 games to a full 17 game schedule,

It comes to 1270 yards at 4.1 YPC, 11TDs. Those are decent fantasy numbers, but 1270 would have put him about tied with Sanders for 5th, and none of the top 10 yardage RBs had less than 4.4 YPC. Really, only 2 of the top 19 RBs had less than 4.3, Najee and Jamaal Williams. So even if we imagine how Najee might look in the best of circumstances, healthy 17 games, rarely down by more than a score, good blocking, vulnerable defenses, etc etc, Najee still wouldn’t make a strong cases to be a top 10 RB.

bingo

[Mick]

Optimistically, if you extrapolate his performance in the last 9 games to a full 17 game schedule,

It comes to 1270 yards at 4.1 YPC, 11TDs. Those are decent fantasy numbers, but 1270 would have put him about tied with Sanders for 5th, and none of the top 10 yardage RBs had less than 4.4 YPC. Really, only 2 of the top 19 RBs had less than 4.3, Najee and Jamaal Williams. So even if we imagine how Najee might look in the best of circumstances, healthy 17 games, rarely down by more than a score, good blocking, vulnerable defenses, etc etc, Najee still wouldn’t make a strong cases to be a top 10 RB.

bingo

the part that killed me at the time and still hurts as much was that we basically traded James Conner and a 1st rounder for James Conner that plays through injuries.