Possible challenge to Harvin

[steelmann58]

Looks like Denver signed a punter Denver signed eighth-year veteran and former Broncos draft pick Riley Dixon, the team announced Tuesday. Maybe they will released Waitman who the Steelers should never let go.

[Ice]

Pretty sure Tomlin's mancrush on Harvin has a couple years left on it at least, and he did play a little better on balance last season.

[bradshaw2ben]

@BlueridgeBronc1 (Broncos fan in our draft) just said he thought Waitliss played well in preseason but then was pretty meh in the regular season, so careful what you wish for.

[Jobu]

I think NFL fans in general are looking for perfection from their punter, and that’s not realistic. Even the better punters in the league shank kicks, they just do it less frequently than the average guys.
That said, I’m a guy that believes that teams should always be on the look for a better, punter or kicker. There are so many of these guys floating around out there, that you could hold an open competition three, four, five times a year and possibly find upgrades.
Regarding Harvin, it’s true that Tomlin and Smith are comfortable with him right now. I’m sure they’ll bring in a “camp leg” , and it might even be Waitman, we all know how much they love familiarity, but I wouldn’t expect an actual competition. Barring injury, Harvin is the Steelers punter for the foreseeable future.

[Ice]

@BlueridgeBronc1 (Broncos fan in our draft) just said he thought Waitliss played well in preseason but then was pretty meh in the regular season, so careful what you wish for.

Especially since we've apparently already seen the good part of that equation, and it wasn't that much better than the Porky Punter.

[langer]

I'm surprised Denver just doesn't replace all their players with Chinese imports.

[Jams]

I thought maybe the janitor at Primanti Brothers thought about trying out. I'm sure he could punt better than that stiff.

[jeemie]

@BlueridgeBronc1 (Broncos fan in our draft) just said he thought Waitliss played well in preseason but then was pretty meh in the regular season, so careful what you wish for.

Waitman in a full season of play with Denver was not that great…his net was 41.5 to Harvin’s 41.1…and Waitman plays half his games at Mile High.

He wasn’t all that much better than Harvin.

[VeritasSteel]

Pressley has a big leg and typically when he uncorks it- he outkicks his coverage and then it's a problem. And every now and then he shanks one- but hes had a couple of these at key moments- which keeps him employed.

http://www.steelers.com/video/highlight ... lutch-punt


and

https://www.steelers.com/video/highligh ... -yard-line

[LakecrestSteeler]

Food for
Thought from Scunge

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I think most fans jerk themselves off like crazy for gross avg, net avg, blah, blah, blah.

Harvin's hang time and placement were dramatically improved from his rookie year and people lose sight of the most important part of punting, to not allow much of a return or give up punt return TDs. And to place punts inside the 20.

Everyone was singing the praises of that rookie punter Stonehouse, 53.1 avg, 44.0 net avg but he had 59 returns for 636 yards, 10.8 yd avg on his 90 punts. He only had a Fair Catch called on 12% of his punts. He placed 33% of his punts down inside the 20 yard line.

Contrast that with our punter Harvin, 44.5 avg, 41.1 net avg, but he had only 24 punts returned for 137 yards, a 5.7 yd avg on his 69 punts. Harvin had a Fair Catch called on 31.9 % of his punts. He placed 29% of his punts down inside the 20 yard line.

The two punters that made the Pro Bowl, AJ Cole and Bryan Anger how did punt returners fair against them? Cole had 25 returns for 274 yards, 10.96 yard avg, and Anger had 32 returns for 258 yards, 8.1 yard avg.

I don't get wrapped up in gross avg and net avg, all that matters to me is minimizing the punt return game and placing punts down inside the 20. Harvin, in punters with at least 50 or more punts I believe had the second lowest amount of return yards with 137. The punter with the lowest amount of return yards was JK Scott, his gross 43.6 and net of 41.5 are supposedly inferior like Harvins but he placed 28 punts inside the 20 on 73 punts, 38.4%, and forced 45.2% of his punts to be Fair Catches (33). How did the punt returners fair against Scott? They managed 19 returns for 58 yards, 3.05 yards per return.

Now yes, yes, the coverage punt return units play their part but it all starts with that punter. If Harvin or Scott get a clean snap from the long snapper, they don't outkick their coverage, they don't punt line drives that spend little time in the air. No they are able to get hang time, place their punts, etc.

Harvin is doing just fine.

[VeritasSteel]

Damn Srunge stunting’ like that? Sheeit got me talking in Ebonics over here. Sorry well played ole chap

[Scunge]

Dale Lolley must frequent Steeler Fury, because in a recent podcast I was listening to him defend Harvin and he was stealing my research.

Now, I think it was DP39 who quibbles with me that Harvin allowed the 6th fewest return yards, but I am not going to count punters who played in 8 games or 6 games. Give Harvin is due, he started all 17 games and he only had 24 returns for 137 yards, 5.7 yard per punt return avg and 0 TDs.

Harvin had a fine 2nd season and he is currently the 26th highest paid punter in the NFL on a per year basis. You can't even make the complaint that he is making too much money. If anything with his production and results, he is a steal right now compared to how much we are paying him.

Net avg, gross avg are for losers.

To me it is like getting a hard on for an ILB that has 180 tackles, yet the defense is giving up 140 yards rushing per game at 5 yards per carry.

Context is everything, even with punters.

[955876]

I wish I could watch him kick and not worry bout a 27 yard shank.

Besides that he’s adequate.

[jebrick]

Best way to improve on any Steeler punter is to fire Smith

[DP39]

Dale Lolley must frequent Steeler Fury, because in a recent podcast I was listening to him defend Harvin and he was stealing my research.

Now, I think it was DP39 who quibbles with me that Harvin allowed the 6th fewest return yards, but I am not going to count punters who played in 8 games or 6 games. Give Harvin is due, he started all 17 games and he only had 24 returns for 137 yards, 5.7 yard per punt return avg and 0 TDs.

Harvin had a fine 2nd season and he is currently the 26th highest paid punter in the NFL on a per year basis. You can't even make the complaint that he is making too much money. If anything with his production and results, he is a steal right now compared to how much we are paying him.

Net avg, gross avg are for losers.

To me it is like getting a hard on for an ILB that has 180 tackles, yet the defense is giving up 140 yards rushing per game at 5 yards per carry.

Context is everything, even with punters.

Scunge, while I appreciate you being thorough and a poster that always relies very heavily on statistics in your comments (although, maybe less about actually watching a ton of football closely (seeing the plays with your own eyes?)), I noticed that you didn't respond when I did the work and dug much deeper on punting statistics than you had (in our back and forth in the LS, Kuntz, resigning thread (linked/quoted below)). Actually, I was surprised you didn't comment on my deeper stats dive -- as it appeared to be right up your ally based on most of your posts.

I find it interesting how you decided to stand on the simple argument that..."Net avg, gross avg are for losers" when it's one I (nor others here) have never really tried to make. Yet, your biggest stat you like to tout about Harvin is his return yards allowed (RTYDS). Again, if you take the time to read the stats below you'll get a much better understanding as to why he performed above average in that stat. Of course, there's a bunch more that he's (like I've been saying all along) average or below average in -- and I'm not referring to Net Avg or Gross Avg....never really hung my 'stats hat' on that particular one.

Here is it, just in case you didn't get a chance/take the time to read it. It shows you exactly what many of my problems with Harvin are, while debunking some of the stats you like to rely so heavily on.

I'll add this: I want my FO to hire the best punter in the NFL, period, (considering the ROI is so great in that position compared to others (all punters make so close to the same amount of $)). To me, Harvin, while improving some from his first year (he had to, right?(worst in the league)), needs to be better in ALL areas -- not just one or two. Punting isn't just about return yards or hangtime, as you sort of like to break it down to. There are all types of nuanced stats (conditions/circumstances) that explain the whole picture if you just look close enough.

Like I said before, we can still agree to disagree, and that's ok.

And, I'll end with this (to reiterate). I hope he continues to get better in ALL punting areas, as he certainly has room to. I don't want just average-to-above average, overall. If he becomes a top three (overall/all stats) punter in the league I'll have zero problem with our FO paying him ~$3M (top salaries) instead of the ~$1M he makes now. That ~$2M difference is nothing compared to 95% of the other positions and their average salary spreads.....BUT, the difference in punting performance can greatly affect the outcome of games (especially on a ROI consideration).


mcp.php?i=main&mode=post_details&f=2&p= ... 4e4cc14615

Not only do I think Harvin will be fine as our punter, I don't know how anybody can argue that the value he brings is well worth what we are paying him too.

I believe on a per year average, Harvin is 27th among punters, averaging $890,000 per year.

Does anybody really want to get up on the table and pound the table for these punters making $2.5 million like Johnny Hekker? Or $3 million per year like AJ Cole? Or $3.675 million per season like Michael Dickson?

I feel like people bitching about Harvin are 3 years too early. If he signs a 3 year $10 million deal in 2025, then you can bitch and be critical all you want, but now? When there is really no discernible glaring weakness? When he is making one third to one fourth of the rest of the NFL's punters on a per year basis?

To me the weakness of the special teams unit is the long snapper. Kuntz, was not that good last year for whatever reason. We had 10 missed FGs last year, we also had a lot of FGs and extra points that were barely made and one of the common things was high snaps, wide snaps, etc.

Salary-wise, just about the last roster spot I'm going to worry about is the punter. We're talking about $1-3M max in difference (league wide) of highest paid and lowest for their position. While saving money is saving money, I don't need my FO/Bean Counter/HC attaching themselves to this particular train full bore -- there are far more important areas they can focus their "proven" low energy level on.

Two years ago we drafted Harvin (the only punter drafted in '21 mind you). In his first year he was graded as the worst punter in the league (#31 to 33) depending where you look. Yes, last year he improved, but it's not like he could've gotten any worse. He improved to middle of the pack, at best, so, around #16 overall. They way we play played as much of a role in his improvement as he did, imo.

Punters RARELY get drafted -- one or two a year usually. If we're going to spend a draft pick (7th) on one then I want him to be in the top 5-8 (overall) consistently. Hell, even if we don't spend draft capital on one, I still want him to be top 5-8. Tommy Townsend (KC) was considered the best (or 2nd best) overall punter last year and he earned basically the same as Harvin, and I wouldn't say he's kickin' in SoCal weather -- much closer to PIT's actually.

As for Harvin's 2022 stats & rankings: (he punted 69 times -- 15th or 16th attempts-wise)

STAT...............RANK
Y/P: 44.5..........28TH
NY/P: 41.1.........19TH
TB: 5.................16TH
TB%: 7.2..........16TH
IN20: 20..........24TH
IN20%: 29.........28TH
RTYDS: 137.........6TH
OOB%: 10.4........23rd
SFP%: 76.8.........4th (only 3 other punters got shorter fields to punt from on avg.)

While I've agreed Harvin has nice hangtime, which can play one role in a lower return yardage -- the other being the actual coverage, there's only about 1 more average return yard per punt difference between his 6th ranking and the 16th ranked punter.

As you can see, stats are nice, but the eye in the sky (or my eyes) don't lie. The fact remains, Harvin, while improving some (he had to, right?) is far from top 10 in the league. More important, he's STILL inconsistent. Not as much as he was (couldn't get much more and have a job), but it still exists and needs some improvement, for sure. I'll also add, while Harvin did a nice job of downing punts inside the 10 and 5, with our HC's major risk aversion, he got A TON more opportunities than he peers (actually, only 3 other punters got more (short field punt%)) to punt from mid-field to which he could place the balls there -- nonetheless, he did perform when asked in that capacity. I'll give him that.

But, his enormous number of short field punt opportunities are also why he had a very-to-pretty high IN10%, IN5%, FC# (Fair Catch), and lower return yards league wide. He's middle of the pack for FC% and around 20th in TB% (lower being better here). His inconsistences still lies in the fact he's in the top 10 for kicking OOB% (not good), and he's no coffin corner punter (we all know that) -- many of his OOB punts were shanks!

Look, I hope Harvin can take a much larger leap forward this year, and become more consistent. If not, like I said, I want my FO turning over every rock they can to improve my team -- even the punter.

Personally, I think there are a number of punters out there they can do what we ask Harvin to do and do it as well or better.....AND not shank the ball from our own end on occasion (actually more often for Harvin). Even if it costs us another mill or two, I'm ok with that.

We can still agree to disagree, and that's ok.

[steelmann58]

Well that was fast. Patriots Sign P Corliss Waitman

[Scunge]

DP39, as I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I am not cherry picking stats, but I will show you how from site to site, stats can be totally slanted and it is looking in a funhouse mirror at times.

I say Harvin was ranked 2nd in return yardage allowed, and you say he was instead 6th overall in fewest return yards allowed.

Well, as you say, let us drill deeper. Where is the discrepancy between our two stats??

Okay, I see Jake Elliot gave up 0 return yards, he punted just one time. He is not a punter but a placekicker who had to step in that one time.

I see Brett Kern gave up 42 return yards, he punted 10 times, started 4 games.

Drue Chrisman gave up 106 yards, he punted 28 times, started 7 games.

Michael Palardy gave up 115 yards he punted 43 times, started 8 games.

Now, I don't count those 4 'punters' in my review of the 'stats'. A placekicker who punted 1 time should not count. Another punter who only punted 10 times should not count. Punters that only played in 4 games, 7 games, 8 games, should not qualify. I will throw in two more punters in Jake Bailey and Kevin Huber that only had 9 games.

Drue Chrisman and Kevin Huber were the Bengals punters last season. Anyway, there is 6 punters right there that I eliminate from the list of punters when assessing the stats for punters. There should be a criteria of having enough punts and playing in enough games to qualify, yes??

So, if we go by that I think you will find that Harvin's game is better than you think.

[DP39]

DP39, as I said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and I am not cherry picking stats, but I will show you how from site to site, stats can be totally slanted and it is looking in a funhouse mirror at times.

I say Harvin was ranked 2nd in return yardage allowed, and you say he was instead 6th overall in fewest return yards allowed.

Well, as you say, let us drill deeper. Where is the discrepancy between our two stats??

Okay, I see Jake Elliot gave up 0 return yards, he punted just one time. He is not a punter but a placekicker who had to step in that one time.

I see Brett Kern gave up 42 return yards, he punted 10 times, started 4 games.

Drue Chrisman gave up 106 yards, he punted 28 times, started 7 games.

Michael Palardy gave up 115 yards he punted 43 times, started 8 games.

Now, I don't count those 4 'punters' in my review of the 'stats'. A placekicker who punted 1 time should not count. Another punter who only punted 10 times should not count. Punters that only played in 4 games, 7 games, 8 games, should not qualify. I will throw in two more punters in Jake Bailey and Kevin Huber that only had 9 games.

Drue Chrisman and Kevin Huber were the Bengals punters last season. Anyway, there is 6 punters right there that I eliminate from the list of punters when assessing the stats for punters. There should be a criteria of having enough punts and playing in enough games to qualify, yes??

So, if we go by that I think you will find that Harvin's game is better than you think.

It's all good, Scunge. I agree that guys that had just a couple of punts for the year shouldn't really fit into the equation. That's precisely why I relied on % statistics as well -- it eliminates/reduces the total number of attempts factor. Although, eliminating any punter that didn't play in every single game last year from the ranking number stat is kind of silly....don't you think? Your method it's kinda like saying guys like TJ Watt and Mitch Trubisky shouldn't be judged on their performances last year. Again, the simple and fair solution is to use % stats when ranking players (as I've shown), as it eliminates missed opportunity for the most part and judges everyone on a fair playing field, stats-wise.

But, again, the real stat you need to look at is SFP%. Harvin was basically given a shorter field to punt from (thanks MT for your "we don't live in our fears" BS ) than just about all punters, so of course he's going to have the best opportunity for fewest returns yards and downed inside the 20/10/5 (as long as the coverage team is doing their job, which has little to do with any of the punters really). Like you said, not all stats are similar (that's why I got my advanced stats from an actual retired punter, IIRC), but by using % stats it certainly corrects for what your basing your debate on, or your skewed ranking preference of Harvin.

As I've said, Harvin does a few things ok-to-well (when given a better situational setup (thanks to MT) than a lot of punters), but as an overall punter he is much closer to average at best, if you will, and the real stats prove that out.

Big picture, I hope he improves (overall) on his own, and Tomlin stops cherry picking opportunities for him to climb your rankings system, because that's playing a large role in what you're seeing (stats-wise). If he doesn't improve, I want our FO to treat him like any other player on the roster and find a better player to replace him -- especially considering it cost$ so very little to do that. I want a top three overall punter, I think all fans would -- as well as our FO. But, then again, average gets you a 9-8 season, so maybe our HC/Deuce is actually okay with Harvin -- I guess it can makes sense when you look at it that way.