Trade Ups for that Franchise QB (2016-2025)...

[Scunge]

Trade Ups for that Franchise QB (2016-2025)

This time span from 2016-2025 is 10 years and is a sufficient sample size to illustrate the trade ups for teams looking for that Franchise QB.

2016

Jared Goff

The Rams moved up 14 spots, from 1(15) to the top spot 1(1).
They gave Tennessee 1st(15), 2017 1st( ), 2nd(43), 2nd(45), 3rd(76) and a 2017 3rd( ) in return for 1st(1), 4th(113) and a 6th(177).

Goff played in 69 games with 69 starts, 42-27 record, playoffs, 10 games, 9 starts, 4-5 record. 2 time Pro Bowler for the Rams, had back to back, 4,600 yard passing seasons. They made the Playoffs in 3 of the 4 years that he was a full time starter, they made it to the Super Bowl but lost.

Lot of draft capital to move up for a player that was maybe just a more juiced up Kirk Cousins?? Rams came to the same conclusion I think and moved on. Detroit is coming around to this sad reality as well.
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Carson Wentz

Philly moved up 6 spots from 1(8) to 1(2).
They gave the Browns a 1st(8), 2017 1st(), a 2018 2nd(), a 3rd(77) and a 4th(100) and in return got a 1st(2) and a 2017 4th()

Wentz played in 68 games, with 68 starts, had a 35-32-1 record. Had one playoff game, but it was mop up duty, was 1 of 4 for 3 yards in a losing effort. Had that great 2nd season, that Super Bowl winning season, but he got hurt and Nick Foles was the hero who finished out the season and into the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl as the starter. Wentz always seemed to have nagging injuries and as the starting QB he had a losing record in 3 of his 5 seasons in Philly, 7-9, 5-6, 3-8-1. He has played for 5 NFL teams now.

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Paxton Lynch

Denver moved up 5 spots from 1(31) to 1(26).
They gave Seattle 1st(31), and a 3rd(94).

Lynch never did anything, appeared in 5 games with 4 starts, 1-3 record. Of note he spent some time in Pittsburgh trying to get a 3rd string job?
He actually embodied a lot of what is wrong with young college QBs entering the NFL right now. Lynch played in shotgun exclusively, did not have any experience taking snaps under center, I don’t think they even huddled when he was at Memphis, they stripped him of normal responsibilities, dumbed things down, he didn’t have to make line calls, worry about protections, etc. Sounds like the perfect NFL prospect right?? And yet, this past draft many of these QBs are going to have to learn how to do the same things, how to line up under center, learn to read the full field, etc. The more things change the more they stay the same.
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**** Of note is that Dak Prescott was the 8th QB taken in this 2016 draft class, 4th round (135), was NFL offensive rookie of the year. 3 time Pro Bowler, 122 games, 122 starts, 76-46 as a starter, 7 games, 7 starts in playoffs, 2-5. That pick by Dallas was a comp pick at the end of the 4th round.****

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2017

Pat Mahommes

Kansas City moved up 17 spots from 1(27) to 1(10).
They gave Buffalo a 1st(27), a 2018 1st(22) and a 3rd()

Don’t need to write anything , we all know how well this went. How the hell does Mitch Tribisky go 2nd overall in this 2017 draft?? Mahommes is the 2nd QB taken??

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Deshaun Watson

Houston moved up 13 spots from 1(25) to 1(12).
They gave Cleveland 1st(25) and a 2018 1st(4).

Watson did well on the field for Houston, 54 games, 53 starts, 37-35 record, playoffs, 3 games, 3 starts, 1-2 record, 3 time Pro Bowler, 3 of his 4 seasons had a passer rating over 100, 104.5 career rating with Houston. The off the field stuff doomed him and then the trade to Cleveland and the further descent of his once promising career.

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2018

Josh Allen

Buffalo moved up 5 spots from 1(12) to 1(7).
They gave Tampa Bay 1st(12), 2nd(53), 2nd(56) to move up to that 1st(7) spot.

Josh was the 3rd QB taken in this class, Baker Mayfield and Same Darnold went before him with the 1st and 3rd overall picks. Why the 3rd QB? Just nitpick type of things, I remember some found issues with some language, slurs he did on social media, etc. To give up two 2nd round picks to move up 5 spots, Buffalo wanted their man and they got him.

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Lamar Jackson

The Ravens moved up 20 spots, from 2(52) to Philly’s 1(32)
They gave Philly 2nd(52), a 2019 2nd() and 4th(125) and in return got 1st(32) and a 4th(132)

Brilliant move up to get Jackson with the last pick in round 1, getting that 5th year option. Jackson was the 5th QB taken in this 2018 draft class. Later on we will have a discussion about how moving up into that 1-3 area doesn’t really seem to pay off, taking the consensus 1st or 2nd best QB prospect, trading the house for that player, how often does that work out??

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2020

Jordan Love

Green Bay moved up 4 spots, going from 1(30) to 1(26).
They gave Miami 1st(30) and a 4th(136) to move up to 1st(26).

Green Bay in 2019 had a 13-3 record and Rodgers was still playing well and would go on to play 3 more seasons. Have to hand it to Green Bay in almost revisiting what they did in having Farve and drafting Rodgers and then Rodgers was able to sit and learn and eventually become the starter. Love has started the past two seasons and has played in 42 games with 33 starts with an 18-15 record. Playoffs, 3 games, 3 starts, 1-2. Has thrown for over 7,500 yards, 57 TDs and 22 Ints in the past two seasons combined with a passer rating over 96 in each season.

Joe Burrow obviously the class of this QB group, but interesting that Love was the 4th QB taken, the arrow is trending up for him and Tua and Justin Herbert are trending down.

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2021

Trey Lance

49ers moved up 9 spots, going from 1(12) to 1(3).
They gave Miami 1st(12), a 2022 1st(29), a 2023 1st(29) and a 2022 3rd(101).

Awful trade up, and for a player that simply hadn’t played much in college. Only had 318 pass attempts in 17 games, that is 19 pass attempts per game and he completed 12 passes per game. As a pro played in 8 games with 4 starts, 2-2 record for the 49ers.

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Justin Fields

Chicago moved up 9 spots going from 1(20) to 1(11).
They gave the Giants a 1st(20), a 2022 1st(7), a 2022 4th(112) and a 5th(164).

We all got to see him first hand in a Steeler uniform and much of what he did in Chicago was on display. Just a really, really slow processor, and doesn’t trust his eyes when he does see it. Doesn’t have much finesse as a passer. More to being a passer than just how strong your arm is. I feel like he is not really an answer at QB for anyone. So glad we did not resign him.

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2023

Bryce Young

Carolina moved up 8 spots going from 1(9) to 1(1)
They gave Chicago a 1st(9), a 2024 1st(1, ouch!!!), a 2nd(61), a 2025 2nd() and WR DJ Moore

Just never understood the love for this player, so small, short, 30 games, 28 starts, 6-22 record.

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Will Levis

Tennessee moved up 8 spots going from 2(41) to 2(33).
They gave Arizona the 2nd(41), 3rd(72) and a 2024 3rd(71) in return for 2(33) and 3(81)

I make an exception with Levis here by including him, he was not a first round pick that a team traded up for but at pick 33 he is close enough I figure (Lamar went at 32)
Didn’t like his game at all and he has an offbeat personality and rubs people the wrong way.

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2024

JJ McCarthy

Minnesota moved up 1 spot, going from 1(11) to 1(10).
They gave the Jets a 1st(11), a 4th(129) and a 5th(157) for 1(10) and a 7th(203).

Jury is out with his rookie year quickly derailed before it could begin.

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2025

Jaxson Dart

Didn’t see it with this QB at all and the offense doesn’t really prepare a young QB for the NFL. Also don’t like the nepotism/vibe with the Giants. Eli Manning’s old school, Giants have connections with the school, old coaches/former coaches with ties to Ole Miss vouching for Dart, giving their seal of approval, etc. Whatever, smells like a bust to me.


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14 QBs that teams trading up for in the past 10 years, 13 in the first round and Will Levis at the top of round 2, pick 33. While I tried to be thorough I may have missed someone, if so let me know and I will add them.

What trends have there been these past 10 years??
Did teams that traded up into the top spot, or the 2nd or 3rd pick come away with their franchise QB??
Did teams that took the consensus top QB fare well??
Did teams that took the consensus 2nd best QB do well??
How often did teams taking the 3rd, 4th, 5th best QBs turn out with the best QB??

In the past 10 years, these 16 QBs were taken within the first three picks of the first round

First Overall
Jarod Goff
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Bryce Young
Caleb Williams
Cam Ward

Second Overall
Carson Wentz
Mitch Tribisky
Zach Wilson
CJ Stroud
Jayden Daniels

Third Overall
Sam Arnold
Trey Lance
Drake Maye

Teams picking in those top spots, in that rarified air so to speak, must lose oxygen to their brain and make stupid decisions. You can count on them time and time again to take the next draft flop rather than the next franchise QB. Out of that list above who hit a home run? Joe Burrow. Definitively. Who has a chance among the others? Jayden Daniels? Maybe CJ Stroud, Drake Maye and Cam Ward, but it is too early to tell. Maybe only Daniels joins Burrow as that Franchise QB if we look back at that list 2-3 years from now. Pretty damn bleak, why would anyone TRADE UP into these spots to draft a QB?? If you own one of these top 3 picks naturally and swing and miss on a QB, fair enough. But if you trade up and give up multiple 1st round picks, 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, etc, and then swing and miss on a QB?? That is devastating.

I think this is how you see time and time again QBs that don’t go in that top spot, aren’t taken first, and go later in the 1st round or outside the first round.

Joe Flacco was the 2nd QB taken
Pat Mahommes was the 2nd QB taken
Geno Smith was the 2nd QB taken
Deshaun Watson was the 3rd QB taken
Josh Allen was the 3rd QB taken
Justin Herbert was the 3rd QB taken
Derek Carr was the 4th QB taken
Jordan Love was the 4th QB taken
Andy Dalton was the 5th QB taken
Jimmy Garapalo was the 5th QB taken
Lamar Jackson was the 5th QB taken
Jalen Hurts was the 5th QB taken
Russell Wilson was the 6th QB taken
Kirk Cousins was the 8th QB taken
Dak Prescott was the 8th QB taken
Brock Purdy was the 9th QB taken

I know the 2024 draft class is too early to decipher yet, but would it be that surprising to see Drake Maye and Michael Penix become better QBs than Caleb Williams two years from now??
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The 2026 draft is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers have been accumulating draft picks. There was a plan and I can appreciate it. I will be conservative with the comp picks but this is what I project the Steelers to have in 2026:

1
2
3
3 (from Dallas)
3 (comp pick from Dan Moore)
4
4(comp pick)
5
5(comp pick)
6
6(comp pick)
7

Now some may get excited and project that those comp picks may be two thirds and two 5ths or some other variation, but I figure they go 3,4,5,6.

Honestly I could care less if Aaron Rodgers signs or not. Go with Mason Rudolph as the starter, Will Howard as the backup and we probably still win 8-9 games. There is still chance we make the playoffs. My scenario is that Rudolph starts and we win 9 games but miss the playoffs like Cincy did this past year. They had the 17th pick in this past draft.

So, we have 12 picks and our first round pick is say 17th overall.

Now I think teams are more willing to move down if they get those draft picks this year and not have to wait.

Let some team trade up for Arch Manning, let some team trade up for the 2nd best QB prospect. The Steelers just need to figure out the QB that fits them best, who they can thrive with and develop. Lanoris Sellers? Sam Leavitt??

Why can’t the Steelers move up from 17 to 10 or 7 by giving up their 2nd, 3rd and 3rd?

Just work with me here, what if the draft ended up being like this:

1 Lanoris Sellers or Sam Leavitt
3 (comp pick)
4
4 (comp pick)
5
5 (comp pick)
6
6 (comp pick)
7

That is still 9 picks! Or they can give up a high draft pick for 2027, a first or 2nd and keep one of those thirds this year:

1 Lanoris Sellers/Sam Leavitt
3
3 (comp pick)
4
4 (comp pick)
Etc.

I know people wanted more of a splash in free agency, but how the hell would this team have been able to move up and do anything in the 2026 draft with just 7 picks? As it is they were smart and built up the coffers, built up their ammo to strike in next year’s draft.

I live in the ‘Burgh and I can’t wait for next year’s draft. The thought that I can attend that first night, watch all of the fanfare, the glitz, and have the commish announce our new franchise QB in Pittsburgh, man, it is going to be glorious.

[PennyBacker]

2021

Trey Lance

49ers moved up 9 spots, going from 1(12) to 1(3).
They gave Miami 1st(12), a 2022 1st(29), a 2023 1st(29) and a 2022 3rd(101).

Awful trade up, and for a player that simply hadn’t played much in college. Only had 318 pass attempts in 17 games, that is 19 pass attempts per game and he completed 12 passes per game. As a pro played in 8 games with 4 starts, 2-2 record for the 49ers.

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Justin Fields

Chicago moved up 9 spots going from 1(20) to 1(11).
They gave the Giants a 1st(20), a 2022 1st(7), a 2022 4th(112) and a 5th(164).

We all got to see him first hand in a Steeler uniform and much of what he did in Chicago was on display. Just a really, really slow processor, and doesn’t trust his eyes when he does see it. Doesn’t have much finesse as a passer. More to being a passer than just how strong your arm is. I feel like he is not really an answer at QB for anyone. So glad we did not resign him.

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2023

Bryce Young

Carolina moved up 8 spots going from 1(9) to 1(1)
They gave Chicago a 1st(9), a 2024 1st(1, ouch!!!), a 2nd(61), a 2025 2nd() and WR DJ Moore

Just never understood the love for this player, so small, short, 30 games, 28 starts, 6-22 record.

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Players like Trey Lance, Justin Fields and Bryce Young are a trend that I see which will be interesting to determine how the NFL reacts to, if at all.

Trey Lance - a player who has all sorts of measurables and potential, but very little experience. Teams cannot continue to draft young players based upon the pie in the sky belief that they will substitute developmental experience at the college level with professional experience. Or maybe they will, simply based upon circumstances such as, last name (Manning), or athletic ability (being 6'5 or 6'6 with speed, or a cannon arm). Mitchell Trubisky and Akili Smith are some other examples.

Justin Fields & Bryce Young - players who are great athletes, but who play at NFL prospect factories with some of the best coaching at the college level. Effectively, players who rarely see any prolonged adversity in football until they reach the professional level. When only the best of someone is seen, and they have phenomenal abilities above and beyond the rest of the talent pool, teams have consistently shown a willingness to mortgage the future, the temptation is just too great. For most teams that is, ideally the Steelers do not fall into the trap of unnecessarily burning draft picks for the wrong guy.

[jebrick]

If you stick with Bruce Areans' QB check list, you will do better then hunting the next Josh Allen. Allen is a unicorn and hunting him will cost your team. sure you could strike gold but for every Josh Allen there is Trey Lance, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and Justin Fields ( off the top of my head). Look for QBs that are accurate in college and can play in the pocket already. Less to teach them.

In this next batch, I'm more interested in Nessmeier. Has the arm and has show some accuracy. I am more confident that LSU can produce/Train a QB. Sellers will be #1 on most lists but he needs a full season of starts. He is really a project( the next Josh Allen). Allar is fools gold at this point.


https://torontosun.com/2017/04/15/10-pe ... -whisperer

[Gonzo]

Allar has all the skills but has two major drawbacks
1. It’s hard to see what he can really be under his current coach and offensive scheme
2. His performance in big situations has been abysmal

How would he do under a real coach good at developing QBs /

i also down in him currently but haven’t given up hope yet

And I think sellers i\should not be lumped in with ‘“Athletic” QB prospects. He seems to me to a far slicker passer than given credit for … which sticks out especially at his young age

If the Steelers managed to draft sellers next year … assuming he comes out … I would be very happy

[bradshaw2ben]

If you stick with Bruce Areans' QB check list, you will do better then hunting the next Josh Allen. Allen is a unicorn and hunting him will cost your team. sure you could strike gold but for every Josh Allen there is Trey Lance, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young and Justin Fields ( off the top of my head). Look for QBs that are accurate in college and can play in the pocket already. Less to teach them.

In this next batch, I'm more interested in Nessmeier. Has the arm and has show some accuracy. I am more confident that LSU can produce/Train a QB. Sellers will be #1 on most lists but he needs a full season of starts. He is really a project( the next Josh Allen). Allar is fools gold at this point.


https://torontosun.com/2017/04/15/10-pe ... -whisperer

I mean, I'd take Nuss over Allar. But I think the lack of high end velocity for Nussmeier is going to put pressure on his ability to anticipate in the NFL. I think he's a good fit for a more sophisticated offense that will give him easier reads and require fewer tough 3rd down throws. He's a great fit for LA-MIA-NO-MIN-SF. PIT is going to need someone more system agnostic & transcendent. Both good in the pocket and great out of structure to overcome what his situation with Tomlin will be, at least in the early part of his career.

[Who Dee Knee]

Excellent analysis, Scunge.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Trade Ups for that Franchise QB (2016-2025)

This time span from 2016-2025 is 10 years and is a sufficient sample size to illustrate the trade ups for teams looking for that Franchise QB.

2016

Jared Goff

The Rams moved up 14 spots, from 1(15) to the top spot 1(1).
They gave Tennessee 1st(15), 2017 1st( ), 2nd(43), 2nd(45), 3rd(76) and a 2017 3rd( ) in return for 1st(1), 4th(113) and a 6th(177).

Goff played in 69 games with 69 starts, 42-27 record, playoffs, 10 games, 9 starts, 4-5 record. 2 time Pro Bowler for the Rams, had back to back, 4,600 yard passing seasons. They made the Playoffs in 3 of the 4 years that he was a full time starter, they made it to the Super Bowl but lost.

Lot of draft capital to move up for a player that was maybe just a more juiced up Kirk Cousins?? Rams came to the same conclusion I think and moved on. Detroit is coming around to this sad reality as well.
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Carson Wentz

Philly moved up 6 spots from 1(8) to 1(2).
They gave the Browns a 1st(8), 2017 1st(), a 2018 2nd(), a 3rd(77) and a 4th(100) and in return got a 1st(2) and a 2017 4th()

Wentz played in 68 games, with 68 starts, had a 35-32-1 record. Had one playoff game, but it was mop up duty, was 1 of 4 for 3 yards in a losing effort. Had that great 2nd season, that Super Bowl winning season, but he got hurt and Nick Foles was the hero who finished out the season and into the playoffs, winning the Super Bowl as the starter. Wentz always seemed to have nagging injuries and as the starting QB he had a losing record in 3 of his 5 seasons in Philly, 7-9, 5-6, 3-8-1. He has played for 5 NFL teams now.

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Paxton Lynch

Denver moved up 5 spots from 1(31) to 1(26).
They gave Seattle 1st(31), and a 3rd(94).

Lynch never did anything, appeared in 5 games with 4 starts, 1-3 record. Of note he spent some time in Pittsburgh trying to get a 3rd string job?
He actually embodied a lot of what is wrong with young college QBs entering the NFL right now. Lynch played in shotgun exclusively, did not have any experience taking snaps under center, I don’t think they even huddled when he was at Memphis, they stripped him of normal responsibilities, dumbed things down, he didn’t have to make line calls, worry about protections, etc. Sounds like the perfect NFL prospect right?? And yet, this past draft many of these QBs are going to have to learn how to do the same things, how to line up under center, learn to read the full field, etc. The more things change the more they stay the same.
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**** Of note is that Dak Prescott was the 8th QB taken in this 2016 draft class, 4th round (135), was NFL offensive rookie of the year. 3 time Pro Bowler, 122 games, 122 starts, 76-46 as a starter, 7 games, 7 starts in playoffs, 2-5. That pick by Dallas was a comp pick at the end of the 4th round.****

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2017

Pat Mahommes

Kansas City moved up 17 spots from 1(27) to 1(10).
They gave Buffalo a 1st(27), a 2018 1st(22) and a 3rd()

Don’t need to write anything , we all know how well this went. How the hell does Mitch Tribisky go 2nd overall in this 2017 draft?? Mahommes is the 2nd QB taken??

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Deshaun Watson

Houston moved up 13 spots from 1(25) to 1(12).
They gave Cleveland 1st(25) and a 2018 1st(4).

Watson did well on the field for Houston, 54 games, 53 starts, 37-35 record, playoffs, 3 games, 3 starts, 1-2 record, 3 time Pro Bowler, 3 of his 4 seasons had a passer rating over 100, 104.5 career rating with Houston. The off the field stuff doomed him and then the trade to Cleveland and the further descent of his once promising career.

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2018

Josh Allen

Buffalo moved up 5 spots from 1(12) to 1(7).
They gave Tampa Bay 1st(12), 2nd(53), 2nd(56) to move up to that 1st(7) spot.

Josh was the 3rd QB taken in this class, Baker Mayfield and Same Darnold went before him with the 1st and 3rd overall picks. Why the 3rd QB? Just nitpick type of things, I remember some found issues with some language, slurs he did on social media, etc. To give up two 2nd round picks to move up 5 spots, Buffalo wanted their man and they got him.

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Lamar Jackson

The Ravens moved up 20 spots, from 2(52) to Philly’s 1(32)
They gave Philly 2nd(52), a 2019 2nd() and 4th(125) and in return got 1st(32) and a 4th(132)

Brilliant move up to get Jackson with the last pick in round 1, getting that 5th year option. Jackson was the 5th QB taken in this 2018 draft class. Later on we will have a discussion about how moving up into that 1-3 area doesn’t really seem to pay off, taking the consensus 1st or 2nd best QB prospect, trading the house for that player, how often does that work out??

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2020

Jordan Love

Green Bay moved up 4 spots, going from 1(30) to 1(26).
They gave Miami 1st(30) and a 4th(136) to move up to 1st(26).

Green Bay in 2019 had a 13-3 record and Rodgers was still playing well and would go on to play 3 more seasons. Have to hand it to Green Bay in almost revisiting what they did in having Farve and drafting Rodgers and then Rodgers was able to sit and learn and eventually become the starter. Love has started the past two seasons and has played in 42 games with 33 starts with an 18-15 record. Playoffs, 3 games, 3 starts, 1-2. Has thrown for over 7,500 yards, 57 TDs and 22 Ints in the past two seasons combined with a passer rating over 96 in each season.

Joe Burrow obviously the class of this QB group, but interesting that Love was the 4th QB taken, the arrow is trending up for him and Tua and Justin Herbert are trending down.

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2021

Trey Lance

49ers moved up 9 spots, going from 1(12) to 1(3).
They gave Miami 1st(12), a 2022 1st(29), a 2023 1st(29) and a 2022 3rd(101).

Awful trade up, and for a player that simply hadn’t played much in college. Only had 318 pass attempts in 17 games, that is 19 pass attempts per game and he completed 12 passes per game. As a pro played in 8 games with 4 starts, 2-2 record for the 49ers.

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Justin Fields

Chicago moved up 9 spots going from 1(20) to 1(11).
They gave the Giants a 1st(20), a 2022 1st(7), a 2022 4th(112) and a 5th(164).

We all got to see him first hand in a Steeler uniform and much of what he did in Chicago was on display. Just a really, really slow processor, and doesn’t trust his eyes when he does see it. Doesn’t have much finesse as a passer. More to being a passer than just how strong your arm is. I feel like he is not really an answer at QB for anyone. So glad we did not resign him.

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2023

Bryce Young

Carolina moved up 8 spots going from 1(9) to 1(1)
They gave Chicago a 1st(9), a 2024 1st(1, ouch!!!), a 2nd(61), a 2025 2nd() and WR DJ Moore

Just never understood the love for this player, so small, short, 30 games, 28 starts, 6-22 record.

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Will Levis

Tennessee moved up 8 spots going from 2(41) to 2(33).
They gave Arizona the 2nd(41), 3rd(72) and a 2024 3rd(71) in return for 2(33) and 3(81)

I make an exception with Levis here by including him, he was not a first round pick that a team traded up for but at pick 33 he is close enough I figure (Lamar went at 32)
Didn’t like his game at all and he has an offbeat personality and rubs people the wrong way.

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2024

JJ McCarthy

Minnesota moved up 1 spot, going from 1(11) to 1(10).
They gave the Jets a 1st(11), a 4th(129) and a 5th(157) for 1(10) and a 7th(203).

Jury is out with his rookie year quickly derailed before it could begin.

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2025

Jaxson Dart

Didn’t see it with this QB at all and the offense doesn’t really prepare a young QB for the NFL. Also don’t like the nepotism/vibe with the Giants. Eli Manning’s old school, Giants have connections with the school, old coaches/former coaches with ties to Ole Miss vouching for Dart, giving their seal of approval, etc. Whatever, smells like a bust to me.


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14 QBs that teams trading up for in the past 10 years, 13 in the first round and Will Levis at the top of round 2, pick 33. While I tried to be thorough I may have missed someone, if so let me know and I will add them.

What trends have there been these past 10 years??
Did teams that traded up into the top spot, or the 2nd or 3rd pick come away with their franchise QB??
Did teams that took the consensus top QB fare well??
Did teams that took the consensus 2nd best QB do well??
How often did teams taking the 3rd, 4th, 5th best QBs turn out with the best QB??

In the past 10 years, these 16 QBs were taken within the first three picks of the first round

First Overall
Jarod Goff
Baker Mayfield
Kyler Murray
Joe Burrow
Trevor Lawrence
Bryce Young
Caleb Williams
Cam Ward

Second Overall
Carson Wentz
Mitch Tribisky
Zach Wilson
CJ Stroud
Jayden Daniels

Third Overall
Sam Arnold
Trey Lance
Drake Maye

Teams picking in those top spots, in that rarified air so to speak, must lose oxygen to their brain and make stupid decisions. You can count on them time and time again to take the next draft flop rather than the next franchise QB. Out of that list above who hit a home run? Joe Burrow. Definitively. Who has a chance among the others? Jayden Daniels? Maybe CJ Stroud, Drake Maye and Cam Ward, but it is too early to tell. Maybe only Daniels joins Burrow as that Franchise QB if we look back at that list 2-3 years from now. Pretty damn bleak, why would anyone TRADE UP into these spots to draft a QB?? If you own one of these top 3 picks naturally and swing and miss on a QB, fair enough. But if you trade up and give up multiple 1st round picks, 2nd round picks, 3rd round picks, etc, and then swing and miss on a QB?? That is devastating.

I think this is how you see time and time again QBs that don’t go in that top spot, aren’t taken first, and go later in the 1st round or outside the first round.

Joe Flacco was the 2nd QB taken
Pat Mahommes was the 2nd QB taken
Geno Smith was the 2nd QB taken
Deshaun Watson was the 3rd QB taken
Josh Allen was the 3rd QB taken
Justin Herbert was the 3rd QB taken
Derek Carr was the 4th QB taken
Jordan Love was the 4th QB taken
Andy Dalton was the 5th QB taken
Jimmy Garapalo was the 5th QB taken
Lamar Jackson was the 5th QB taken
Jalen Hurts was the 5th QB taken
Russell Wilson was the 6th QB taken
Kirk Cousins was the 8th QB taken
Dak Prescott was the 8th QB taken
Brock Purdy was the 9th QB taken

I know the 2024 draft class is too early to decipher yet, but would it be that surprising to see Drake Maye and Michael Penix become better QBs than Caleb Williams two years from now??
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The 2026 draft is in Pittsburgh and the Steelers have been accumulating draft picks. There was a plan and I can appreciate it. I will be conservative with the comp picks but this is what I project the Steelers to have in 2026:

1
2
3
3 (from Dallas)
3 (comp pick from Dan Moore)
4
4(comp pick)
5
5(comp pick)
6
6(comp pick)
7

Now some may get excited and project that those comp picks may be two thirds and two 5ths or some other variation, but I figure they go 3,4,5,6.

Honestly I could care less if Aaron Rodgers signs or not. Go with Mason Rudolph as the starter, Will Howard as the backup and we probably still win 8-9 games. There is still chance we make the playoffs. My scenario is that Rudolph starts and we win 9 games but miss the playoffs like Cincy did this past year. They had the 17th pick in this past draft.

So, we have 12 picks and our first round pick is say 17th overall.

Now I think teams are more willing to move down if they get those draft picks this year and not have to wait.

Let some team trade up for Arch Manning, let some team trade up for the 2nd best QB prospect. The Steelers just need to figure out the QB that fits them best, who they can thrive with and develop. Lanoris Sellers? Sam Leavitt??

Why can’t the Steelers move up from 17 to 10 or 7 by giving up their 2nd, 3rd and 3rd?

Just work with me here, what if the draft ended up being like this:

1 Lanoris Sellers or Sam Leavitt
3 (comp pick)
4
4 (comp pick)
5
5 (comp pick)
6
6 (comp pick)
7

That is still 9 picks! Or they can give up a high draft pick for 2027, a first or 2nd and keep one of those thirds this year:

1 Lanoris Sellers/Sam Leavitt
3
3 (comp pick)
4
4 (comp pick)
Etc.

I know people wanted more of a splash in free agency, but how the hell would this team have been able to move up and do anything in the 2026 draft with just 7 picks? As it is they were smart and built up the coffers, built up their ammo to strike in next year’s draft.

I live in the ‘Burgh and I can’t wait for next year’s draft. The thought that I can attend that first night, watch all of the fanfare, the glitz, and have the commish announce our new franchise QB in Pittsburgh, man, it is going to be glorious.

Even with all this analysis Scunge, and I agree with your hypothesis, it amazes me how quickly an organization can turn around from bad decisions; assuming the money is not an issue. I am not saying it is overnight, but I am actually surprised how quickly the Steelers “recovered” from Pickett. The Browns recovered from Watson…Patriots etc. Just draft the QBs if you need one. I thought the Watson trade would doom the Browns for a decade, they may be doomed for a decade, but they are ready to draft a QB again and have a haul of picks ready to go. Seems like they pulled the trigger on Watson yesterday.

The draft might not support your need, but it seems like you can be ready to draft a potential FQB about every 3 years draft availability willing. Keep swinging…bad offensive performance by your QB will obfuscate potential during talent evaluation in other areas anyway, potentially on defense too if the offense is bad enough.