Noggin's Notes 7 - Ben(ny) and the Jets
Posted: Fri Nov 07, 2014 9:35 pm
It is a very good thing that the Steelers brought their “A” game to last week’s contest. Because it now appears that the AFC North will be a dog fight the entire season. I will go out on a limb and predict we won’t know the division winner until the conclusion of week 17. Every division game is crucial and every conference game is important from this point forward.
To the casual fans, uninformed viewers, and fantasy football nerds this week’s tilt should be a walk in the park for the (currently) high flying Steelers as they face off against the lowly J-E-T-S. But a closer look at the matchups in this game may reveal a different story…
What: 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1-8 New York Jets
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
When: 1:00 PM EST, November 9th, 2014
The New York Jets organization to all intents and purposes is a dumpster fire right now. As with any New York sports team, the media circus facing a losing franchise is almost more entertaining than the product on the field. However, don’t let the off the field distractions fool you – the Jets have some talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Steelers with the ball – run game:
The Jets boast a top ten defense against the run and are currently in the top five in another important metric – yards allowed per carry. They run a 3-4 scheme with Dennis Thurman as their defensive coordinator, but Rex Ryan still has his fingers in the pie on that side of the ball.
The Jets 3-4 success against the run starts with Wilkerson, Harrison, and Richardson up front. These three are a nasty and capable group. Wilkerson has been a beast and will be difficult to block one-on-one. Harrison is a solid 3-4 NT who is tough to root out of the hole. And Richardson has also been very good at the point of attack.
The matchups in the run game this week are very similar to those against the Ravens last week. But considering the cross-pollination between the Ravens and Jets defensive coaching staffs the last several years, that should come as no surprise. It will be tough sledding to pound the ball up the gut against this crew.
Pouncey will probably need help on a number of plays with Harrison; he is too big and strong for 53 to handle by himself on every snap. However, Pouncey has been playing at a very high level the last several weeks, so don’t be surprised if he wins a number of these battles with minimal assistance. I thought Gilbert did a pretty good job last week in the run game all things considered; he and Decastro will have their hands full with Wilkerson this week. I fully expect Wilkerson to truck Decastro on a play or two to stop the back for a loss or no gain. Foster and Beachum had some tough plays last week and Richardson has the quicks and good first step to make Foster whiff on a block. Foster gets in trouble when he misses his first contact and has to reach – he looks like a clumsy dancing bear on those plays.
The Jets LBs are overall a solid group. Davis and Harris will fill the gaps and make a stick on inside runs. Coples and Pace both set the edge very well. Coples is a mountain of a man at OLB and will walk either Spaeth or Miller if they try and single him. I have always liked Pace; he may be getting a bit long in the tooth but he is an instinctive player who always seems to be around the ball.
The Jets troubles in the secondary are well documented. I look for them to play back quite a bit this week and not have a huge impact on the run game. (Please, please, please, Rex load the box with a safety and leave A. Brown one on one on the outside!)
The main goal for the Steelers run game this week is to keep the LBs and Safeties honest; I anticipate a similar performance on the ground to last weeks – just enough to make the D think. This is another game where I like Blount’s more physical style over Bell’s more finesse touch between the tackles.
Steelers with the ball – pass game:
To say that the Jets are struggling against the pass would be an understatement. They have given up more touchdowns through the air and made fewer interceptions than any other NFL team. As a direct result, opposing quarterbacks have an ungodly 112.8 rating against them. However, the Jets D still gets after the quarterback – they have the fifth most sacks in the league.
Wilkerson and Richardson both can win one on one matchups and sack the QB. While the Jets like to mix in the blitz, they are perfectly capable of beating you with a three or four man rush. Beachum will have his hands full as will Gilbert. Expect the TEs to stay in on a number of plays to help with the edge rushers. Foster was beaten badly right across his face on several plays last week. This can not happen repeatedly as nothing is worse than pressure straight up the gut.
Every single one of the Jets LBs has multiple sacks this year – each one of them can close the deal. The Jets have been talking in the media this week about Ben having poor ball security. They would not say it to the press if they did not hear it in the meeting rooms… When they get to Ben this week (and they will several times I am sure) they will be looking to chop at the ball. Ben needs to be aware of this and wrap it up.
The Jets secondary is a train wreck. It looks as if Adams and Williams will get the nod at outside CB with Wilson in the slot. Pryor and Landry will play at safety, but I expect that Allen gets some snaps as well.
It goes without saying that none of these guys can blanket cover Brown or Bryant or Wheaton. However, what they can do is hope for timely pressure on Ben and play smart in their zones. The very worst thing the Steelers can do in this game is get sloppy with the ball and give up cheap points or field position.
I anticipate the biggest mismatch in the Steelers favor, however, will be Bell out of the backfield. The Jets will be so worried about getting coverage over the top of the big three WRs that I anticipate some large gaps in the middle of the field and in the flats. Ben won’t throw for 500 yards or get six TDs this week, but there will be plays to be had – especially in the underneath zones.
Jets with the ball – run game:
The Jets are top five in the league in rushing by virtually any statistic you would like to examine. One reason the Jets are good at running is because they do it so often; they are top five in the league in rushing attempts per game as well. Ivory and longtime Titan Johnson share the load at RB, and FB John Conner likes to terminate LBs at the point of attack. (Sorry, I had to do it!) Chris Johnson is not as nearly as fast as he once was, but he is still capable of breaking off a 30 or 40-yarder if the Steelers lose gap control. Vick is a shadow of his former self, but can still hurt you with his legs – he averages almost seven yards per carry.
The Jet O-line is mean and nasty and would love to punch the Steelers in the throat and steal their lunch money. Ferguson at Left Tackle is very, very good. He is less of a road grader and more of a consummate technician. However, Deebo is playing like his hair is on fire. He was everywhere last week. But can his 36 year old body produce like that two weeks in a row? I think the key to keeping him fresh has been Moats rotating in at key times. I won’t lie – I was not impressed with Moats at all to start the season, but something seems to have clicked for him. Maybe seeing Deebo benching 400 plus pounds every day has him playing scared… Whatever it takes! I call this matchup a draw with a slight edge to the Steelers.
Aboushi at LG is athletic and moves well (he was a left tackle in college) and can get to the second level; he could cause some issues for Timmons/Spence/Williams if he does not need to help any of his line mates. Mangold is a high quality center. However, I was absolutely pleased as punch with McClendon’s play last week. I think McClendon will command the double team on several plays which will help out the ILBs of the Steelers immeasurably.
We all remember and love our friend Willie Colon at RG. I was never a fan of his, but he has been in the league and making bank for nine years, so that shows you what I know... Willie reminds me a little bit of Yanda in that he has a nasty streak a mile wide. He brings the filthy on every play. The Steelers mainly need to avoid being provoked by the Colon into a cheap retaliatory type penalty. I am not a fan of Giacomini at RT as a run blocker – I like this matchup for Woirlds setting the edge against him. He is a very finesse run blocker and can be beat with a pure power.
In summary, the Jets are going to grind with the run. They will have some success as well. I fully expect over 100 yards on the ground. The key is to get stops in the red zone and hold them to 3 instead of 7.
Jets with the ball – pass game:
Michael Vick actually had a solid game against KC last week. He actually showed some patience and discipline in the pocket. Decker and Harvin are not bad receivers – both can hurt you if you are not careful in your coverages. Cumberland and Amaro are both pedestrian at TE, but if you leave them wide open (see the second Cleveland game) they will make you pay.
The key to controlling Vick is to pressure him but to pressure him under control. He is still fast enough to pick up a third and long if you rush him without lane discipline. Ferguson will not give up much pressure one on one. However, if the Steelers get the stunt game going like they did last week Deebo could get some pressure by moving around. Aboushi will typically handle stunts fairly well with his LT feet, though. I look for Mangold to hold his own against the rush as well. The place to get pressure against the Jets O-line is on the right side. Colon could easily give up a sack or two, and I believe Woirlds can beat Giacomini back to the inside if he over sets for the speed rush to the outside.
The Steeler secondary will be more disciplined with Allen playing in place of Troy. This actually may be a blessing in disguise, because against this team you want to play smart assignment football rather than to guess…
Special Teams:
Last week I warned of the danger of the Ravens return game – I hate to be right about those sorts of things. The Steelers return game is still atrocious. The Jets return game is respectable and Harvin makes it even better. The Jets kickers are as good if not better than those of the Steelers. Advantage New York.
Coaching:
Rex Ryan is a football genius – edge to the Jets.
Conclusion:
Todd Haley believes in ju-ju. I believe in ju-ju. Therefore…
Jets 24
Steelers 23
To the casual fans, uninformed viewers, and fantasy football nerds this week’s tilt should be a walk in the park for the (currently) high flying Steelers as they face off against the lowly J-E-T-S. But a closer look at the matchups in this game may reveal a different story…
What: 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1-8 New York Jets
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
When: 1:00 PM EST, November 9th, 2014
The New York Jets organization to all intents and purposes is a dumpster fire right now. As with any New York sports team, the media circus facing a losing franchise is almost more entertaining than the product on the field. However, don’t let the off the field distractions fool you – the Jets have some talent on the defensive side of the ball.
Steelers with the ball – run game:
The Jets boast a top ten defense against the run and are currently in the top five in another important metric – yards allowed per carry. They run a 3-4 scheme with Dennis Thurman as their defensive coordinator, but Rex Ryan still has his fingers in the pie on that side of the ball.
The Jets 3-4 success against the run starts with Wilkerson, Harrison, and Richardson up front. These three are a nasty and capable group. Wilkerson has been a beast and will be difficult to block one-on-one. Harrison is a solid 3-4 NT who is tough to root out of the hole. And Richardson has also been very good at the point of attack.
The matchups in the run game this week are very similar to those against the Ravens last week. But considering the cross-pollination between the Ravens and Jets defensive coaching staffs the last several years, that should come as no surprise. It will be tough sledding to pound the ball up the gut against this crew.
Pouncey will probably need help on a number of plays with Harrison; he is too big and strong for 53 to handle by himself on every snap. However, Pouncey has been playing at a very high level the last several weeks, so don’t be surprised if he wins a number of these battles with minimal assistance. I thought Gilbert did a pretty good job last week in the run game all things considered; he and Decastro will have their hands full with Wilkerson this week. I fully expect Wilkerson to truck Decastro on a play or two to stop the back for a loss or no gain. Foster and Beachum had some tough plays last week and Richardson has the quicks and good first step to make Foster whiff on a block. Foster gets in trouble when he misses his first contact and has to reach – he looks like a clumsy dancing bear on those plays.
The Jets LBs are overall a solid group. Davis and Harris will fill the gaps and make a stick on inside runs. Coples and Pace both set the edge very well. Coples is a mountain of a man at OLB and will walk either Spaeth or Miller if they try and single him. I have always liked Pace; he may be getting a bit long in the tooth but he is an instinctive player who always seems to be around the ball.
The Jets troubles in the secondary are well documented. I look for them to play back quite a bit this week and not have a huge impact on the run game. (Please, please, please, Rex load the box with a safety and leave A. Brown one on one on the outside!)
The main goal for the Steelers run game this week is to keep the LBs and Safeties honest; I anticipate a similar performance on the ground to last weeks – just enough to make the D think. This is another game where I like Blount’s more physical style over Bell’s more finesse touch between the tackles.
Steelers with the ball – pass game:
To say that the Jets are struggling against the pass would be an understatement. They have given up more touchdowns through the air and made fewer interceptions than any other NFL team. As a direct result, opposing quarterbacks have an ungodly 112.8 rating against them. However, the Jets D still gets after the quarterback – they have the fifth most sacks in the league.
Wilkerson and Richardson both can win one on one matchups and sack the QB. While the Jets like to mix in the blitz, they are perfectly capable of beating you with a three or four man rush. Beachum will have his hands full as will Gilbert. Expect the TEs to stay in on a number of plays to help with the edge rushers. Foster was beaten badly right across his face on several plays last week. This can not happen repeatedly as nothing is worse than pressure straight up the gut.
Every single one of the Jets LBs has multiple sacks this year – each one of them can close the deal. The Jets have been talking in the media this week about Ben having poor ball security. They would not say it to the press if they did not hear it in the meeting rooms… When they get to Ben this week (and they will several times I am sure) they will be looking to chop at the ball. Ben needs to be aware of this and wrap it up.
The Jets secondary is a train wreck. It looks as if Adams and Williams will get the nod at outside CB with Wilson in the slot. Pryor and Landry will play at safety, but I expect that Allen gets some snaps as well.
It goes without saying that none of these guys can blanket cover Brown or Bryant or Wheaton. However, what they can do is hope for timely pressure on Ben and play smart in their zones. The very worst thing the Steelers can do in this game is get sloppy with the ball and give up cheap points or field position.
I anticipate the biggest mismatch in the Steelers favor, however, will be Bell out of the backfield. The Jets will be so worried about getting coverage over the top of the big three WRs that I anticipate some large gaps in the middle of the field and in the flats. Ben won’t throw for 500 yards or get six TDs this week, but there will be plays to be had – especially in the underneath zones.
Jets with the ball – run game:
The Jets are top five in the league in rushing by virtually any statistic you would like to examine. One reason the Jets are good at running is because they do it so often; they are top five in the league in rushing attempts per game as well. Ivory and longtime Titan Johnson share the load at RB, and FB John Conner likes to terminate LBs at the point of attack. (Sorry, I had to do it!) Chris Johnson is not as nearly as fast as he once was, but he is still capable of breaking off a 30 or 40-yarder if the Steelers lose gap control. Vick is a shadow of his former self, but can still hurt you with his legs – he averages almost seven yards per carry.
The Jet O-line is mean and nasty and would love to punch the Steelers in the throat and steal their lunch money. Ferguson at Left Tackle is very, very good. He is less of a road grader and more of a consummate technician. However, Deebo is playing like his hair is on fire. He was everywhere last week. But can his 36 year old body produce like that two weeks in a row? I think the key to keeping him fresh has been Moats rotating in at key times. I won’t lie – I was not impressed with Moats at all to start the season, but something seems to have clicked for him. Maybe seeing Deebo benching 400 plus pounds every day has him playing scared… Whatever it takes! I call this matchup a draw with a slight edge to the Steelers.
Aboushi at LG is athletic and moves well (he was a left tackle in college) and can get to the second level; he could cause some issues for Timmons/Spence/Williams if he does not need to help any of his line mates. Mangold is a high quality center. However, I was absolutely pleased as punch with McClendon’s play last week. I think McClendon will command the double team on several plays which will help out the ILBs of the Steelers immeasurably.
We all remember and love our friend Willie Colon at RG. I was never a fan of his, but he has been in the league and making bank for nine years, so that shows you what I know... Willie reminds me a little bit of Yanda in that he has a nasty streak a mile wide. He brings the filthy on every play. The Steelers mainly need to avoid being provoked by the Colon into a cheap retaliatory type penalty. I am not a fan of Giacomini at RT as a run blocker – I like this matchup for Woirlds setting the edge against him. He is a very finesse run blocker and can be beat with a pure power.
In summary, the Jets are going to grind with the run. They will have some success as well. I fully expect over 100 yards on the ground. The key is to get stops in the red zone and hold them to 3 instead of 7.
Jets with the ball – pass game:
Michael Vick actually had a solid game against KC last week. He actually showed some patience and discipline in the pocket. Decker and Harvin are not bad receivers – both can hurt you if you are not careful in your coverages. Cumberland and Amaro are both pedestrian at TE, but if you leave them wide open (see the second Cleveland game) they will make you pay.
The key to controlling Vick is to pressure him but to pressure him under control. He is still fast enough to pick up a third and long if you rush him without lane discipline. Ferguson will not give up much pressure one on one. However, if the Steelers get the stunt game going like they did last week Deebo could get some pressure by moving around. Aboushi will typically handle stunts fairly well with his LT feet, though. I look for Mangold to hold his own against the rush as well. The place to get pressure against the Jets O-line is on the right side. Colon could easily give up a sack or two, and I believe Woirlds can beat Giacomini back to the inside if he over sets for the speed rush to the outside.
The Steeler secondary will be more disciplined with Allen playing in place of Troy. This actually may be a blessing in disguise, because against this team you want to play smart assignment football rather than to guess…
Special Teams:
Last week I warned of the danger of the Ravens return game – I hate to be right about those sorts of things. The Steelers return game is still atrocious. The Jets return game is respectable and Harvin makes it even better. The Jets kickers are as good if not better than those of the Steelers. Advantage New York.
Coaching:
Rex Ryan is a football genius – edge to the Jets.
Conclusion:
Todd Haley believes in ju-ju. I believe in ju-ju. Therefore…
Jets 24
Steelers 23
