Even making the FG would barely bump Steelers' odds

[jeemie]

This article in SB Nation spells it out pretty well and shows Tomlin does actually "live in his fears". Even had the FG been successful, the odds of the Steelers' winning hardly moved (if you believe in win probability caluculations, that is).

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/10/23/ ... g-decision

On top of that, it wasn't just that Boswell was pushing everything right. No one was kicking well...Gostowski missed an XP, their punter shanked one, and it was windy.

All around, an ultra-conservative decision that also carried more risk than usual with it.

Tomlin never learns.

[Orangesteel]

Tomlin gives zero fucks about win probability calculations. The only calculator he needs is the one just north of his dick and balls called his GUT.

54 yarder when nobody has made shit for FGs all game? KICK IT.

[Legacy User]

And the irony is that Tomlin regularly takes needless risks.

[Obviously]

Fuck Mike Tomlin.

[Legacy User]

I'm still not sure what I think of the decision but this analysis is completely meaningless and shouldn't be taken as a fact of anything.

First of all, it compares win probability odds against scoring a TD in 60 seconds - pretty huge assumption and not even relevant.

How does scoring a FG vs getting a first down change the win probability - that is the relevant comparison, not the one that is posted. Even then - what are your odds of scoring a TD vs scoring a FG? Probably an important part of the calculus but also unknowable.

I guess you can argue that a 6.3% of winning with a FG is a good argument against, but what is the comparison?

At first blush, I thought it was absolutely awful - I still kind of do. But on second appraisal, I can atleast understand the thought process - you think you might get one more possession after this, you want to make sure you at least get a scoring opportunity on the current one.

[swissvale72]

It's a decision you MIGHT make, if all your eggs are in the basket of extending the game as far as possible, do anything you can to make it a one-score game at that point. BUT...that's if it's more than likely you MAKE the field goal.

In other words, if it's a 46 yarder and forth & 10, you kick it. It's a 46 yarder and fourth & 2....you might go either way with it.

That spot though....low percentage kick, makable first down, chance to cut the margin to either 5 or 3, versus 8...gotta go for it.

[tbsteel]

Tomlin doesn't live in his fears, until shit gets real, and then he most certainly does.

It's easy to be aggressive when you're winning or have momentum rolling your way, but much more difficult late in games when it's all on the line. But that call wasn't surprising, he's had plenty of other obvious sphincter-tightening calls in similar spots.

[jeemie]

I'm still not sure what I think of the decision but this analysis is completely meaningless and shouldn't be taken as a fact of anything.

First of all, it compares win probability odds against scoring a TD in 60 seconds - pretty huge assumption and not even relevant.

How does scoring a FG vs getting a first down change the win probability - that is the relevant comparison, not the one that is posted. Even then - what are your odds of scoring a TD vs scoring a FG? Probably an important part of the calculus but also unknowable.

I guess you can argue that a 6.3% of winning with a FG is a good argument against, but what is the comparison?

At first blush, I thought it was absolutely awful - I still kind of do. But on second appraisal, I can atleast understand the thought process - you think you might get one more possession after this, you want to make sure you at least get a scoring opportunity on the current one.

Yes, getting the TD wasn't the relevant comparison...in fact, I didn't even consider that part of the article.

But the point the author was really making was that it was a highly risky play that Tomlin called that didn't even raise the meter on the win probability. I suspect getting a first down was hardly that much better as far as win probability goes...but the odds of making it were likely better. Even though Jones sucked much of the game, he likely had a better chance of leading the offense to three yards than Boswell had of making that FG. Author pointed that out as well.

The real mistake was not assuming you'd be going for it when you made the THIRD down play call...then you could have gone either run or pass.

[chippedhamsandwich]

And the irony is that Tomlin regularly takes needless risks.

This is the absolute worst, Tomlin and his risk taking during meaningless periods in games, here we have a chance but he decides to play it "safe" in his mind, you gotta "take the points" works when it's not a 54 yard field goal into the open end of the stadium.

Fucking idiot...

[steelmann58]

That decision going forthe FG instead of a FD is inexcusable.

[Legacy User]

That decision going forthe FG instead of a FD is inexcusable.

Fucking right....we needed the FD there.

[Stosh-67]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

[swissvale72]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

I know the outcome; Steelers still lose. They would have been down 8....didn't come close to the end zone after that.

[bradshaw2ben]

I'm still not sure what I think of the decision but this analysis is completely meaningless and shouldn't be taken as a fact of anything.

First of all, it compares win probability odds against scoring a TD in 60 seconds - pretty huge assumption and not even relevant.

How does scoring a FG vs getting a first down change the win probability - that is the relevant comparison, not the one that is posted. Even then - what are your odds of scoring a TD vs scoring a FG? Probably an important part of the calculus but also unknowable.

I guess you can argue that a 6.3% of winning with a FG is a good argument against, but what is the comparison?

At first blush, I thought it was absolutely awful - I still kind of do. But on second appraisal, I can atleast understand the thought process - you think you might get one more possession after this, you want to make sure you at least get a scoring opportunity on the current one.

I just wrote the same thing-- I'm sure that was the approximate thinking.

Also, our play caller utterly lacks vision, imagination, or the ability to scheme something open and he'd be the one calling a play vs a Bill Belichick... with Laundry Jones, an injured AB, 3rd wave WRs, and a RT who shouldn't be starting in the NFL. My heart said go fot it, but even before the FG team went out there, I had no expectation that converting that 1st down was better than 50/50.

[bradshaw2ben]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

I know the outcome; Steelers still lose. They would have been down 8....didn't come close to the end zone after that.

Let's get real: they were losing either way. They blew numerous chances to be in the game and perhaps even win: the EZ INT, the 1st missed FG, numerous presnap penalties-- generally squandering opportunities before the last Patriots TD.

These mistakes were compounded by a disturbing lack of DPI calls against the Pats. Considering the game situation, if they call DPI on the deep ball to Cobi Hamilton-- an obvious foul not called-- the Steelers might well have tied the game and gotten an emotional lift they never got.

[chippedhamsandwich]

Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

The FG was missed, however the Steelers were kinda still in it and Tomlin had zero to give on the sideline.

No urgency, the offense took even less chances and instead of getting his guys to hustle, they looked like a bunch of unprepared assholes.

He made the call to kick, and in what will most certainly be explained with bullshit cliche, he had no plan to potentially win a somewhat close game.

[Legacy User]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

In the postgame presser, he stated as his reason that Boswell had made a FG from the same exact spot on the field a year ago. Seriously.

Ride your million dollar fucking offensive line and run the ball at least once, probably twice. He tried so hard to outsmart Belicheat on third down and painted himself into a corner. He shriveled up more than a 80 year old cunt in winter. He, as predicted, was totally outcoached and lived in his fears.

[swissvale72]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

In the postgame presser, he stated as his reason that Boswell had made a FG from the same exact spot on the field a year ago. Seriously.

Ride your million dollar fucking offensive line and run the ball at least once, probably twice. He tried so hard to outsmart Belicheat on third down and painted himself into a corner. He shriveled up more than a 80 year old c*nt in winter. He, as predicted, was totally outcoached and lived in his fears.

In his fuckin' tryout!! NOT in a game!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

I know the outcome; Steelers still lose. They would have been down 8....didn't come close to the end zone after that.

I agree with that. But what Tomlin (and many of his coaching brethren) ignore is the PROCESS rather than the result. Whether he makes it or misses it, the situation at hand: down and distance, time on the clock, etc all point to going for it. Probably the worst possible outcome was that he MAKES THE KICK and Tomlin still clings to the idea that he made the right call

[jeemie]

Probably the worst possible outcome was that he MAKES THE KICK and Tomlin still clings to the idea that he made the right call

That's going to be the outcome no matter what.

I guarantee you Mike Tomlin thinks he made the right call.

Mike Tomlin has never been one to show he ever questions any of his decisions.

[Legacy User]

Once it became 4th down, was anyone's original gut instinct to kick, and even after that and taking a few seconds based on information available, was it anyone's opinion that a kick was the best decision at this point?

For a team that likes to go for 2 point conversions, I would have thought you have a 2 yard play that you can call. At the very least if the Patriots want to make a stop, they have to come out of that umbrella drop 8 and tackle the underneatch catch defense they were playing because 2 yards would be enough.

If it was 4th and 10, or maybe even a 40 yard field goal - then at least there is some pretty good reasoning for a kick... but 4th and 2 with 50+ yards to just get within 8? I don't know how other NFL people aren't giggling at the stupidity of that.

[Donnie Brasco]

Once it became 4th down, was anyone's original gut instinct to kick, and even after that and taking a few seconds based on information available, was it anyone's opinion that a kick was the best decision at this point?

For a team that likes to go for 2 point conversions, I would have thought you have a 2 yard play that you can call. At the very least if the Patriots want to make a stop, they have to come out of that umbrella drop 8 and tackle the underneatch catch defense they were playing because 2 yards would be enough.

If it was 4th and 10, or maybe even a 40 yard field goal - then at least there is some pretty good reasoning for a kick... but 4th and 2 with 50+ yards to just get within 8? I don't know how other NFL people aren't giggling at the stupidity of that.

Outstanding point- this team LOVES LOVES LOVES 2 point conversions and feels confident in them, but not enough for what essentially is the same scenario? I don't get it.

I think everyone agrees that if we are talking about 4th and 10 or 4th and maybe 8 yards we can ATTEMPT to defend the decision, but this is 2 MFing YARDS!! Inexcusable

[bradshaw2ben]

Todd Haley. Bill Belichick. Jesse James & Chris Hubbard blocking. Injured AB, Coates.

I don't think either choice was likely to work out.

[COR-TEN]

Todd Haley. Bill Belichick. Jesse James & Chris Hubbard blocking. Injured AB, Coates.

I don't think either choice was likely to work out.

Although I too thought they should go for it, but I'm not sure I can blame Tomlin for trying for points. Even a long FG.

I'll take the shit coming my way, but how many of us have seen Boswell kick in practice? How many of us were on the field for any of his kicks? All I'm saying is that maybe Tomlin saw Boswell kick 55 yarders on a regular basis. In practice. Maybe he hit a 50 yarder before the game? He was hooking right, but I didn't see the wind blow the ball at all, and it had height and distance. Tomlin pointing out that Boswell made one last year simply says he had confidence in Boswell's state of mind. IOW, he both saw him kick long field goals in better and worse conditions, and last year proved he could do it under pressure in a game situation.

[Donnie Brasco]

Todd Haley. Bill Belichick. Jesse James & Chris Hubbard blocking. Injured AB, Coates.

I don't think either choice was likely to work out.

Although I too thought they should go for it, but I'm not sure I can blame Tomlin for trying for points. Even a long FG.

I'll take the shit coming my way, but how many of us have seen Boswell kick in practice? How many of us were on the field for any of his kicks? All I'm saying is that maybe Tomlin saw Boswell kick 55 yarders on a regular basis. In practice. Maybe he hit a 50 yarder before the game? He was hooking right, but I didn't see the wind blow the ball at all, and it had height and distance. Tomlin pointing out that Boswell made one last year simply says he had confidence in Boswell's state of mind. IOW, he both saw him kick long field goals in better and worse conditions, and last year proved he could do it under pressure in a game situation.

Tomlin watched Gostkowski (one of the most reliable kickers in the past 5 yrs) miss a fucking XP prior to this decision. It's called adapting to the conditions

[jeemie]

Todd Haley. Bill Belichick. Jesse James & Chris Hubbard blocking. Injured AB, Coates.

I don't think either choice was likely to work out.

Although I too thought they should go for it, but I'm not sure I can blame Tomlin for trying for points. Even a long FG.

I'll take the shit coming my way, but how many of us have seen Boswell kick in practice? How many of us were on the field for any of his kicks? All I'm saying is that maybe Tomlin saw Boswell kick 55 yarders on a regular basis. In practice. Maybe he hit a 50 yarder before the game? He was hooking right, but I didn't see the wind blow the ball at all, and it had height and distance. Tomlin pointing out that Boswell made one last year simply says he had confidence in Boswell's state of mind. IOW, he both saw him kick long field goals in better and worse conditions, and last year proved he could do it under pressure in a game situation.

We saw Boswell go right on every one of his field goals in the game. Yes- he showed some power on the 44-yarder, but it also went right- it was very close to being no good itself.

We saw Gostowski miss an XP.

Looked like the kicking was an adventure.

And again, Tomlin's justification is he saw Boswell kick such a long field goal in worse conditions- at his TRYOUT, ONE YEAR AGO.

That's simply fucking ridiculous.

[Obviously]

Le'veon Bell, Maurkice Pouncey, Ramon Foster, David DeCastro, Alejandro Villanueva. I will omit Hubbard who is fucking useless. Those guys should be able to get TWO FUCKING YARDS!!!

[Orangesteel]

We were averaging 5.6 yards a play with Landry Jones at QB. The protection was good and Landry had a lot of time to make throws yesterday, and still missed a bunch and probably shot have been picked off three or four times.

I'm sick of Mike Tomlin coaching from his gut. Be smarter you fool. The challenge on Gronk's obvious catch and the FG call are just prime examples of what goes through Mike's head.

This team is a whole lot of slop right now, and that falls on coaching to the HC and the coordinators.

[Legacy User]

Ok.
The decision to kick the FG was made.
It was, by the majority of this site...the wrong decision for many reasons.
I'm sure most of the media, commentators, sports talk shows and columns tomorrow will talk about the bad decision to kick a FG.

But it's over. It happened. It's not the only reason they lost.
Even if he made the FG. Who knows the out come of the game.

That being said, the worst part of the decision to kick the FG..........
Is he thinks and will continue too think....it was the correct call.

And if he is in that spot again he will probably do the same thing, regardless what the percentages or history tells him.

In the postgame presser, he stated as his reason that Boswell had made a FG from the same exact spot on the field a year ago. Seriously.

Ride your million dollar fucking offensive line and run the ball at least once, probably twice. He tried so hard to outsmart Belicheat on third down and painted himself into a corner. He shriveled up more than a 80 year old c*nt in winter. He, as predicted, was totally outcoached and lived in his fears.

In his fuckin' tryout!! NOT in a game!!

Oh Lord, I had missed that part.

I've been trying not to swear as much, but jimminy willikers...

I think I swore yesterday more than I have in the last six months combined. Lord have mercy.

[jeemie]

I'm sick of Mike Tomlin coaching from his gut. Be smarter you fool. The challenge on Gronk's obvious catch and the FG call are just prime examples of what goes through Mike's head.

This is where I'm at...tired of the stupid, and tired of the stubborness that embraces keeping on with the stupid.

The players- they are what they are. Better coaching and scheme might help with some of it, but the improvement would be marginal.

Mike Tomlin can choose to stop being stubborn and stupid at any time.

Sometimes I wonder if he succeeded too soon, and so therefore decided he didn't have to question himself. He was winning, so obviously what he was doing was right.

By all accounts, people said he was a man who was always learning, always looking for ways to be better, and to make his players better.

I honestly do not see that happening today.