Draft Prospect Tiers

[Mick]

So for an alternate way to look at prospects, basically age adjusting accolades.



Accolade tiers:
1st = consensus all american
2nd = all american by someone, or AP 2nd team.
3rd = SEC 1st team all conference
4th = Other Power 5 1st team or SEC 2nd team
5th = Other Power 5 2nd team, SEC starter, or other FBS 1st team
6th = Other Power 5 etc

Age adjustment (note that this is based off age only, not eligibility, so people turning 22 today count as ‘4th year guys’ whether it is their 1st, 2nd, or 3rd year of draft eligibility)
Add 0 for true 3rd year players (normally when first draft eligible)
Add 1 for 4th year guys
Add 2 for 5th year guys
Add 3 for 6th year guys
Etc.

1st tier (elite, true 3rd year who are already the best in the country at their positions)
Marvin Harrison Jr - 1st
Malik Nabers - 1st
Joe Alt - 1st
Jer’Zhan Newton - 1st
Dallas Turner - 1st
Kool-Aid McKinstry - 1st
Cooper DeJean - 1st
Jackson Powers-Johnson - 1st
Jonah Elliss - 1st

Premium tiers 2-4 (either best in conference as a true 3rd year guy or one of the best in the country but a bit older):
Caleb Williams - 2nd
Terrion Arnold - 2nd
Olumuyiwa Fashanu - 2nd
Rome Odunze - 2nd
Troy Franklin - 2nd
Edgerrin Cooper - 2nd
Brock Bowers - 2nd
JC Latham - 3rd
Taliese Fuaga - 3rd
Graham Barton - 3rd
Laiatu Latu - 3rd
Tyler Nubin - 3rd
Kamren Kinchens - 3rd
Cedric Gray - 3rd
Cooper Beebe - 3rd
Kris Jenkins - 3rd
Zak Zinter - 3rd
T’Vondre Sweat - 3rd
Trey Taylor - 3rd
Brian Thomas - 4th
Byron Murphy - 4th
JJ McCarthy - 4th
Quinyon Mitchell - 4th
Nate Wiggins - 4th
Chop Robinson - 4th
Jared Verse - 4th
Jaden Daniels - 4th
Jeremiah Trotter - 4th
Keon Coleman - 4th
Xavier Worthy - 4th
Kamari Lassiter - 4th
Sedrick Van Pran - 4th
Javon Bullard - 4th
Payton Wilson - 4th
Kris Abrams-Draine - 4th
Darius Robinson - 4th
Austin Booker - 4th
Beanie Bishop - 4th
Mike Sainristil - 4th
Blake Corum - 4th

Mid tier: good prospects
Drake Maye, QB - 5th
Ladd McConkey, WR - 5th
Adonai Mitchell, WR - 5th
Javon Baker, WR - 5th
Cole Bishop, S - 5th
TJ Tampa, CB - 5th
Kingsley Sumataia, OL - 5th
Junior Colson, LB - 5th
Dwight McGlothern, CB - 5th
Jaylan Ford, LB? - 5th
Maason Smith, DT - 5th
Amarius Mims, OT - inj/5th
Christian Haynes, IOL - 5th
Ainias Smith, WR - 5th
Enniss Rakestraw, CB - 6th
Jordan Morgan, OT - 6th
Zach Frazier, OC - 6th
Xavier Legette, WR - 6th
Malik Washington, WR - 6th
Mar’Keise bucky Irving, RB - 6th
Brenden Rice, WR - 6th
Malachi Corley, WR - 6th
Drake Nugent, OC - 6th
Bryan Hudson, OC - 6th
Josh Newton, CB - 6th
Javon Foster, OT - 6th
Christian Mahogany, OL - 6th
DeWayne Carter, DT - 6th
Tyler Davis, NT - 6th
Michael Hall, DT - 6th
Delmar Glaze, OT - 6th
Blake Fisher, OT - 6th
Roger Rosengarten, OT - 6th
Troy Fautanu, OL - 6th

7th tier and up: iffy tiers. Combination of young guys that aren’t good yet (upside!) and a lot of old guys that can play but still aren’t that great (high floor though!)
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR - 7th
Roman Wilson, WR - 7th
Ricky Pearsall, WR - 7th
Luke McCaffrey, WR - 7th
Renardo Green, CB - 7th
Tyler Guyton, OT - 7th
Max Melton, CB - 7th
Johnny Wilson, WR - 7th
Matt Lee, OC - 7th
Ruke Orhorhoro, DT - 7th
Jamari Thrash, WR - 7th
Jordan Travis, QB - 7th
Dominick Puni, OL - 7th
Brandon Coleman, OL - 7th
McKinnley Jackson, DT - 7th
Jacob Cowing, WR - 7th

Jalen McMillan, WR -8th
Kamal Hadden, CB - 8th
Caelen Carson, CB - 8th
Jermaine Burton, WR - 8th
Hunter Nourzad, OC - 8th
Khyree Jackson, CB - 8th
Dylan McMahon, IOL - 8th
MJ Devonshire, CB - 8th
Braden Fiske, DT - 8th
Devontez Walker, WR - 8th
Elijah Jones, CB - 8th
Andrew Raym, OC - 8th
Gabe Hall, DT - 8th
Matt Goncalves, OT - 8th
Mason McCormick, IOL - 8th
Tahj Washington, WR - 8th

Etc

[bradshaw2ben]

Too much emphasis on arbitrary accolades and not enough on, say, production or athleticism... but it is an interesting way of looking at it that does reveal why some prospects are viewed as better prospects than others.

[Mick]

Too much emphasis on arbitrary accolades and not enough on, say, production or athleticism... but it is an interesting way of looking at it that does reveal why some prospects are viewed as better prospects than others.

i think there’s a tendency from draft people to scoff at college accolades, but at a glance, most of the AFC pro bowl defense starters this year were Tier 1 guys by this system, 10 of 11 made at least an all conference team, and all were 6th Tier or better.

I think the issue is that there are a lot of good college players that are worthless in the NFL so the tendency is to assume that there’s not much relation, but the reality is that almost all good NFL players were great college players. One of the main ‘accolade’ issues is they lean toward rewarding older players, who tend to be bad prospects. So here I’m trying to use an age adjustment to discriminate ‘NFL track’ (==> e.g., 2nd team all conference at age 19, 1st team at age 20) from ‘scrub track’ (==> e.g., 2nd team all conference at age 22 1st team at age 23).

[bradshaw2ben]

Too much emphasis on arbitrary accolades and not enough on, say, production or athleticism... but it is an interesting way of looking at it that does reveal why some prospects are viewed as better prospects than others.

i think there’s a tendency from draft people to scoff at college accolades, but at a glance, most of the AFC pro bowl defense starters this year were Tier 1 guys by this system, 10 of 11 made at least an all conference team, and all were 6th Tier or better.

I think the issue is that there are a lot of good college players that are worthless in the NFL so the tendency is to assume that there’s not much relation, but the reality is that almost all good NFL players were great college players. One of the main ‘accolade’ issues is they lean toward rewarding older players, who tend to be bad prospects. So here I’m trying to use an age adjustment to discriminate ‘NFL track’ (==> e.g., 2nd team all conference at age 19, 1st team at age 20) from ‘scrub track’ (==> e.g., 2nd team all conference at age 22 1st team at age 23).

I understand. But those are popularity accolades (which to be fair so is Pro Bowl or All-Pro). Something in here has to be objective, although the higher rated players get more chances to fail, giving them an advantage as far as succeeding.

Plus, for example, Hunter Nourzad had conference honors 4 times in his 4 seasons played, All-American honors once, is 2 years older than JPJ who started one year... and look at the tiers! 1st and 8th. I sus pect you're punishing him for not playing in 2020--- when his team had no season-- delaying him going from 2nd team all-conference to all-conference and All-American.

[Mick]

Adding some O-line context, it looks like the popularity contest accolades are pretty meaningful, but the age a bit less so.

10 of the 10 pro bowl starters for offensive line this year got all-conference and/or all american honors in college. But a few ended up 6th/7th tier due to age. Not really surprised by that; also expect this to be pretty garbage for TEs (so are NFL teams). And FBs.

So leaving it as defense+qb/wr/rb, i end with this distribution of pro bowl starts vs tiers this year.
1st - 11 (this tier is maybe 5 guys per year)
2nd - 3 (maybe 8 players per year)
3rd - 3 (maybe 15 per year)
4th - 2 (25ish per year)
5th - 5 (50ish per year)
6th - 1 (> 100)
7th - 2 (> 100)
8th - 1 (> 200)

That’s not an amazingly sharp decline with tier, but as noted, there are way more power 5 guys coming out each year that didn’t receive honors than 20 year old all americans. From those player quantities, we’d estimate
The average Tier 1 player starts two probowls in his career,
The average Tier 2 guy starts 0.4 probowls,
Tier 3 guys start 0.2,
Tier 4 and 5 about 0.1 each,
And Tier 6-8 guys start less than 0.01.

[bradshaw2ben]

Ok think I finally understand how you’re getting to these—however to use my Leviticus prospect—

Hunter Nourzad was 2nd team All-bug ten (I assume you’re not counting FCS all-American), which should put him tier 5.

He’s 23, so that makes him a 5th year guy, so add 2.

Should be 7th tier.

Did I miss something? You’ve got him as 8th (I seem to recall you had the wrong DOB for him when we did the board mock)

[Mick]

Yes, i was just leaving him as 6th year until i see something definitive on age, as i can confirm he is a 6th year college guy. Possible he was in college as a 17 year old, but that’s pretty uncommon.

But as above, i’d probably not apply this to oline. Give me accolades + a good timed agility there.

[bradshaw2ben]

Yes, i was just leaving him as 6th year until i see something definitive on age, as i can confirm he is a 6th year college guy. Possible he was in college as a 17 year old, but that’s pretty uncommon.

But as above, i’d probably not apply this to oline. Give me accolades + a good timed agility there.

He was also smart enough to go to Cornell, so not impossible they let him start school as a late birthday. I was a 17-year old when I would have started college.

Brugler has him as 11/26/1999, so I will defer to that for now... but there was 11/26/2000 on the interwebs.