Forget the bullshit polls. Here is the real top 10 based on the two things that really matter - your record and who you beat. What I don't care about? Last season. Preseason ranking. Style points.
1. Texas A&M (5-0) - ASU neutral site; Miss St.; @Arkansas
2. Utah (4-0) - Michigan, at Oregon
3. Florida (5-0) - Tenn, Ole Miss
4. Northwestern (5-0) - Stanford, Minnesota
5. Alabama (4-1) - Wisconsin, at Georgia
6. Clemson (4-0) - Notre Dame
7. Michigan St. (4-0) - Oregon
8. Stanford (4-1) - USC
9. TCU (5-0) - Minn, Texas Tech
10. Ole Miss (4-1) - at Alabama
Left out - Baylor and Ohio St. SOS matters. In my poll you have to actually beat someone to get in.
The real top ten
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Steelknife
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LSU beat Missisippi State whose only losses were to LSU and to your #1 team (and you count Miss. St. as a quality win).
LSU beat Auburn who again only lost to LSU and to a team you consider quality (Miss State).
How in God's name do wins over Minnesota and Texas Tech trump that? How is a win over Tennessee a quality win?
I like the theory behind your list, but immediately after you state those criteria, you throw them out the window by putting 1 loss teams over undefeated teams who have what you consider to be quality wins.
Not saying LSU is a world beater right now -- I think they'd only be justifiably favored or even lines against (of the teams in your list) Florida, Northwestern, and Clemson.
LSU beat Auburn who again only lost to LSU and to a team you consider quality (Miss State).
How in God's name do wins over Minnesota and Texas Tech trump that? How is a win over Tennessee a quality win?
I like the theory behind your list, but immediately after you state those criteria, you throw them out the window by putting 1 loss teams over undefeated teams who have what you consider to be quality wins.
Not saying LSU is a world beater right now -- I think they'd only be justifiably favored or even lines against (of the teams in your list) Florida, Northwestern, and Clemson.
Don't get a lot of the "quality opponents," either. If Minnesota is a quality opponent, most middle of the pack Big Ten teams qualify. Arizona State may come around, but that's a middle of the road PAC 12 team. Oregon hasn't looked great, not even good, really. Mississippi State is again a middle of the road team from a power conference. Almost any of these "quality opponents" would probably lose to a top tier MAC school (yup, Mr. Demarr, I went there, with confidence) on a neutral field.
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lifelongsteel
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SteelKnife wrote:LSU beat Missisippi State whose only losses were to LSU and to your #1 team (and you count Miss. St. as a quality win).
LSU beat Auburn who again only lost to LSU and to a team you consider quality (Miss State).
How in God's name do wins over Minnesota and Texas Tech trump that? How is a win over Tennessee a quality win?
I like the theory behind your list, but immediately after you state those criteria, you throw them out the window by putting 1 loss teams over undefeated teams who have what you consider to be quality wins.
Not saying LSU is a world beater right now -- I think they'd only be justifiably favored or even lines against (of the teams in your list) Florida, Northwestern, and Clemson.
LSU probably a miss. Could have easily been there. A couple notes:
- This isn't a best team exercise, which i think is part of the bullshit of the system. this is a who has earned it exercise
- RE: quality wins. A middle of the road power 5 team is a quality win at this juncture as many teams like Baylor are playing no one.
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I'll play. I'll assume leaving LSU off was an oversight.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Utah
6. Michigan State
7. TCU
8. Baylor
9. Ohio State
10. Texas A&M
11. USC
I'm also factoring in the fact that there are two factors that determine the national champions in CFB among all else: recruiting rankings and offensive and defensive efficiency. All ten of the last national champions have had a composite four year recruiting ranking in the top 10 and a top 5 offensive or defensive efficiency ranking. This helps filter out teams like Utah and Northwestern, who can still be really good (big bowl or maybe even playoff qualifiers), but aren't NC quality. Utah still gets my top ranking outside the playoff though. I snuck in USC at #11, as I believe these are the 11 teams left that could make the playoff. I'd be very surprised if it's someone outside of these 11.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Utah
6. Michigan State
7. TCU
8. Baylor
9. Ohio State
10. Texas A&M
11. USC
I'm also factoring in the fact that there are two factors that determine the national champions in CFB among all else: recruiting rankings and offensive and defensive efficiency. All ten of the last national champions have had a composite four year recruiting ranking in the top 10 and a top 5 offensive or defensive efficiency ranking. This helps filter out teams like Utah and Northwestern, who can still be really good (big bowl or maybe even playoff qualifiers), but aren't NC quality. Utah still gets my top ranking outside the playoff though. I snuck in USC at #11, as I believe these are the 11 teams left that could make the playoff. I'd be very surprised if it's someone outside of these 11.
Ice wrote:Don't get a lot of the "quality opponents," either. If Minnesota is a quality opponent, most middle of the pack Big Ten teams qualify. Arizona State may come around, but that's a middle of the road PAC 12 team. Oregon hasn't looked great, not even good, really. Mississippi State is again a middle of the road team from a power conference. Almost any of these "quality opponents" would probably lose to a top tier MAC school (yup, Mr. Demarr, I went there, with confidence) on a neutral field.
give the fact that Ohio lost to Minn AT Minn by a fluke play/call at the very end. Ohio is a upper level MAC team but by no means the best. I really do not think the Golden Gophers are that good.
When you see the writing on the wall, you are in the toilet. -- Fred Sanford
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lifelongsteel
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stillenigma wrote:I'll play. I'll assume leaving LSU off was an oversight.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Utah
6. Michigan State
7. TCU
8. Baylor
9. Ohio State
10. Texas A&M
11. USC
I'm also factoring in the fact that there are two factors that determine the national champions in CFB among all else: recruiting rankings and offensive and defensive efficiency. All ten of the last national champions have had a composite four year recruiting ranking in the top 10 and a top 5 offensive or defensive efficiency ranking. This helps filter out teams like Utah and Northwestern, who can still be really good (big bowl or maybe even playoff qualifiers), but aren't NC quality. Utah still gets my top ranking outside the playoff though. I snuck in USC at #11, as I believe these are the 11 teams left that could make the playoff. I'd be very surprised if it's someone outside of these 11.
Cool. We are using different criteria. So we're getting dramatically different results.
You trying to rank based on chance of winning the NC?
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Lifelongsteel wrote:stillenigma wrote:I'll play. I'll assume leaving LSU off was an oversight.
1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Florida
5. Utah
6. Michigan State
7. TCU
8. Baylor
9. Ohio State
10. Texas A&M
11. USC
I'm also factoring in the fact that there are two factors that determine the national champions in CFB among all else: recruiting rankings and offensive and defensive efficiency. All ten of the last national champions have had a composite four year recruiting ranking in the top 10 and a top 5 offensive or defensive efficiency ranking. This helps filter out teams like Utah and Northwestern, who can still be really good (big bowl or maybe even playoff qualifiers), but aren't NC quality. Utah still gets my top ranking outside the playoff though. I snuck in USC at #11, as I believe these are the 11 teams left that could make the playoff. I'd be very surprised if it's someone outside of these 11.
Cool. We are using different criteria. So we're getting dramatically different results.
You trying to rank based on chance of winning the NC?
Yes, essentially. I realize we are using different criteria. I suppose I am more interested in who the real contenders are than whose "earned it" this early in a long season. There are many more quality wins to come. If I were truly an oddsmaker, I would probably move the Big 10 and Big 12 schools up a tad based on ease of schedule. Especially Ohio State because they are so talented. But that will sort its self out in the next few weeks pretty well.
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lifelongsteel
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stillenigma wrote:
Yes, essentially. I realize we are using different criteria. I suppose I am more interested in who the real contenders are than whose "earned it" this early in a long season. There are many more quality wins to come. If I were truly an oddsmaker, I would probably move the Big 10 and Big 12 schools up a tad based on ease of schedule. Especially Ohio State because they are so talented. But that will sort its self out in the next few weeks pretty well.
Cool. Out two approaches should deliver more similar results as the season goes on.
For a hypothetical, if this happened . . .
Baylor (12-0 big12 champ)
TCU (11-1) one loss to Baylor
Ohio St (13-0 Big 10 champ)
Mich st (11-1) one loss to OSU
Clemson (11-2 ACC champ) two conference losses
Alabama (11-2 SEC champ) two conference losses
Stanford (11-2 Pac 12 champ) loss to NW and 1 conf loss
Who would you put in the final four, at what seeding, and why?
1) Ohio State (undefeated power conference champ)
2) Baylor (undefeated power conference champ, but by admission, their schedule is worse than tOSU's at the end of the season)
3) Bama (keeping in mind I don't know who the second loss is to, where or when (physically or temporally) they were playing them)
4) Clemson (keeping in mind I don't know who the losses are to, where and when on the schedule they were playing them)
Under this formula, Stanford would have a beef, but more with Lifelong's nameless second loss calculus than any of the teams picked ahead of them. TCU, tough luck for another year, MSU, same to you. Winning your conference should count for something.
2) Baylor (undefeated power conference champ, but by admission, their schedule is worse than tOSU's at the end of the season)
3) Bama (keeping in mind I don't know who the second loss is to, where or when (physically or temporally) they were playing them)
4) Clemson (keeping in mind I don't know who the losses are to, where and when on the schedule they were playing them)
Under this formula, Stanford would have a beef, but more with Lifelong's nameless second loss calculus than any of the teams picked ahead of them. TCU, tough luck for another year, MSU, same to you. Winning your conference should count for something.
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lifelongsteel
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Ice wrote:1) Ohio State (undefeated power conference champ)
2) Baylor (undefeated power conference champ, but by admission, their schedule is worse than tOSU's at the end of the season)
3) Bama (keeping in mind I don't know who the second loss is to, where or when (physically or temporally) they were playing them)
4) Clemson (keeping in mind I don't know who the losses are to, where and when on the schedule they were playing them)
Under this formula, Stanford would have a beef, but more with Lifelong's nameless second loss calculus than any of the teams picked ahead of them. TCU, tough luck for another year, MSU, same to you. Winning your conference should count for something.
I like your approach here of going with conf champs over teams with better records. I'm nominating you for a spot on the committee.
The Clemson/Stanford debate would be a good one. I would lean Stanford as I think the Pac-12 is a tougher conference and most likely they would play a tougher opponent in the conf champ game - probably USC or Utah vs. North Carolina/G.Tech
FWIW i think it's going to be an 11-2 USC conf champ. They'll win the South and beat Stanford in the rematch.
USC would probably get in over Clemson not only on strength of schedule, but "eye test" and big name, as well. Not the answer you're looking for, I know. How that win against ND looks by the end of the season is going to be a deciding factor for Clemson, I think, assuming they beat Free Shoe U, who are beginning to look a little more like themselves. Wouldn't exactly count them out, at this point.
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Clemson can not lose twice in the ACC and get in. No way, no how. ACC champ can only have 1 loss if they want in.
Notre Dame could run the table and given the weather and come back in the Clemson game would be looked at favorably.
SEC champ has to get in no matter what.
Notre Dame could run the table and given the weather and come back in the Clemson game would be looked at favorably.
SEC champ has to get in no matter what.
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lifelongsteel
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under current circumstances - league set up's, 4 team playoff etc - this is how i would choose teams if i was on the committee
1) find the 4 most deserving champs from the 5 power conferences. Can't win your conference you've been eliminated. And if you're too cool to be in a conference?
2) Most deserving would be defined as team with the best wins and best schedule. Schedule cupcakes. Don't want you
3) I would leave a crack open for non Power 5 teams in the case of 2 super weak conf champs and 1 exceptional non power 5 team. Ex. a 12-0 ND will get in over a 9-4 ACC Champ. I would not leave a crack open for a team that is in a power 5 but didn't win their conference
I believe in earning it on the field. The best way to earn it is to win a conference.
1) find the 4 most deserving champs from the 5 power conferences. Can't win your conference you've been eliminated. And if you're too cool to be in a conference?
2) Most deserving would be defined as team with the best wins and best schedule. Schedule cupcakes. Don't want you
3) I would leave a crack open for non Power 5 teams in the case of 2 super weak conf champs and 1 exceptional non power 5 team. Ex. a 12-0 ND will get in over a 9-4 ACC Champ. I would not leave a crack open for a team that is in a power 5 but didn't win their conference
I believe in earning it on the field. The best way to earn it is to win a conference.
Shame the MAC is being slept on, even though it's nice to see Toledo get some love in the Top 25. I might rather see an undefeated MAC champ in there than Notre Dame. I was really impressed with NIU, too.
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And speaking of sleeping on teams....
No one is talking about those Cal Bears.....
Maybe next legit NFL QB......
Watch out Utah, you look forward to those fraudulent Ducks, Cal will roll you....
No one is talking about those Cal Bears.....
Maybe next legit NFL QB......
Watch out Utah, you look forward to those fraudulent Ducks, Cal will roll you....
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lifelongsteel
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superk wrote:And speaking of sleeping on teams....
No one is talking about those Cal Bears.....
Maybe next legit NFL QB......
Watch out Utah, you look forward to those fraudulent Ducks, Cal will roll you....
Would love to see a Big Game for the pac12 North crown. I fear that Cal is a mirage though. 5-0 against a super easy schedule. We'll see this weekend.
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bradshaw2ben
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I can't believe I'm the only one who thinks Utah is winning the Pac-12. That is a great team with a big homefield advantage. We shall see-- Saturday is a nice test for them.
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Utah's misdirection play on that punt return was awesome.....
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bradshaw2ben
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That's a Jeff Fisher special, right? The Rams beat Seattle with that last year, I think.
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i havent seen Utah yet b2b but i will take your word for it and try to catch a game soon.....what makes them great in your opinion?
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bradshaw2ben
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relentless run game, disciplined D that creates turnovers, good specials. enough pass game to win. Well-coached.
TCU is another team that could beat anybody in a one and done. Great QB/WR... both 1st round NFL picks.
TCU is another team that could beat anybody in a one and done. Great QB/WR... both 1st round NFL picks.
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bradshaw2ben
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okay, so I'm approaching this with a combo-- who are the best teams filtered through a conference matrix + a theoretical bracket for 24 teams.
SEC East Florida
SEC West LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Alabama
ACC Clemson, Florida State, Duke/Pitt winner
Pac 12 Utah, Stanford, Cal, UCLA
Ind Notre Dame
MAC Toledo
Big 12 TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Big 10 + 1 Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern
MWC Boise State
byes: 1TCU, 2Texas A&M, 3LSU, 4Baylor, 5Ohio State, 6Florida, 7Clemson, 8Utah
9Michigan State vs 24Duke
10Florida State vs 23Oklahoma
11Stanford vs 22 UCLA
12Oklahoma State vs 21Northwestern
13Iowa vs 20Boise State
14Michigan vs 19Cal
15Notre Dame vs 18Alabama
16Toledo vs 17Mississippi
1TCU vs 17Mississippi
2TAMU vs 15Notre Dame
3LSU vs 14Michigan
4Baylor vs 20Boise State
5Ohio State vs 12Oklahoma State
6Florida vs 11Stanford
7Clemson vs 10Florida State
8Utah vs 9Michigan State
1TCU vs 8Utah
15Notre Dame vs 7Clemson
14Michigan vs 6Florida
4Baylor vs 5Ohio State
1TCU vs 5Ohio State
14Michigan vs 15Notre Dame
1TCU vs 14Michigan best offense vs best defense pick em
SEC East Florida
SEC West LSU, Texas A&M, Mississippi, Alabama
ACC Clemson, Florida State, Duke/Pitt winner
Pac 12 Utah, Stanford, Cal, UCLA
Ind Notre Dame
MAC Toledo
Big 12 TCU, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma
Big 10 + 1 Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern
MWC Boise State
byes: 1TCU, 2Texas A&M, 3LSU, 4Baylor, 5Ohio State, 6Florida, 7Clemson, 8Utah
9Michigan State vs 24Duke
10Florida State vs 23Oklahoma
11Stanford vs 22 UCLA
12Oklahoma State vs 21Northwestern
13Iowa vs 20Boise State
14Michigan vs 19Cal
15Notre Dame vs 18Alabama
16Toledo vs 17Mississippi
1TCU vs 17Mississippi
2TAMU vs 15Notre Dame
3LSU vs 14Michigan
4Baylor vs 20Boise State
5Ohio State vs 12Oklahoma State
6Florida vs 11Stanford
7Clemson vs 10Florida State
8Utah vs 9Michigan State
1TCU vs 8Utah
15Notre Dame vs 7Clemson
14Michigan vs 6Florida
4Baylor vs 5Ohio State
1TCU vs 5Ohio State
14Michigan vs 15Notre Dame
1TCU vs 14Michigan best offense vs best defense pick em
Based on this week, that TCU tOSU game would be a barn burner.
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bradshaw2ben
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1TCU vs 5Ohio State
14Michigan vs 15Notre Dame
I haven't seen everybody but there's three championship quality QBs in that 4.
I'm thinking Michigan and OSU are going to win out until their matchup-- could be epic.
bradshaw2ben wrote:1TCU vs 5Ohio State
14Michigan vs 15Notre Dame
I haven't seen everybody but there's three championship quality QBs in that 4.
I'm thinking Michigan and OSU are going to win out until their matchup-- could be epic.
Four if you count both tOSU QBs.
Just kidding, I'm only counting Barrett.
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Nice to have a year that Alabama and Oregon aren't shoo-ins by mid October...
Still, I think Alabama will crawl back to the final four.
Still, I think Alabama will crawl back to the final four.
Dan Smith--BYU wrote:Nice to have a year that Alabama and Oregon aren't shoo-ins by mid October...
Still, I think Alabama will crawl back to the final four.
Agree on Bama. Media is falling all over themselves trying to scramble back aboard the Tide bandwagon, too. It will happen.
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lifelongsteel
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bradshaw2ben wrote:I can't believe I'm the only one who thinks Utah is winning the Pac-12. That is a great team with a big homefield advantage. We shall see-- Saturday is a nice test for them.
They are the favorite to win the South for sure now that USC has imploded and UCLA/ASU have conf losses.
Utah has a few things going for them. 1) Great coaching 2) Crazy good special teams 3) Old/experienced 4) unbelievable RB in Booker.
But mostly, their schedule sets up well from here on out. They miss Stanford, who is easily the best team in the North. They catch USC post implosion. And they get ASU/UCLA both at home.
That said, I think they lose two from here. They lose one of the home games against ASU/UCLA and they lose one of their road games against USC/UofA.
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bradshaw2ben
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I don't see Utah losing at home, especially since UCLA lost their best player and has a, what, freshman (although talented) QB. USC, who knows what you're going to get. Utah might not have enough firepower in a shootout but any team that can't stone stop the run or can't put up 35+ points isn't going to beat the Utes.
Alabama has a tough road to hoe-- LSU, TAMU, Mississippi, & Florida all in front of Alabama...they'd have to beat out all but one of those teams to sneak in to the top 4. So many good teams.
You can mock Cardale all you want-- he is literally a championship quality QB, no matter what he looks like this year. He proved he can do it in the most pressure situation imaginable. I almost said "there are 4 championship QBs in that group"... you beat me to my own joke.
Alabama has a tough road to hoe-- LSU, TAMU, Mississippi, & Florida all in front of Alabama...they'd have to beat out all but one of those teams to sneak in to the top 4. So many good teams.
You can mock Cardale all you want-- he is literally a championship quality QB, no matter what he looks like this year. He proved he can do it in the most pressure situation imaginable. I almost said "there are 4 championship QBs in that group"... you beat me to my own joke.
