Stock Market Thread

Discussions. Still no racial epithets or political campaigning. Don’t bring any of this back to the sports boards. What’s said in FFA, stays in FFA.
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Re: Stock Market Thread

Post by LakecrestSteeler » Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:20 pm

@Steelperch It is like talking to the magic mirror on the wall with you Perch!

I hear everything my superego wants to hear! I will hold my Tesla position! :D



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Post by Steelperch » Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:46 pm

LakecrestSteeler wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 7:20 pm
@Steelperch It is like talking to the magic mirror on the wall with you Perch!

I hear everything my superego wants to hear! I will hold my Tesla position! :D
My plan is to hold Tesla until 2030 at least, but please don’t listen to me. I’m just some asshole with access to the internet. Do your own research.

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Post by Kodiak » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:15 am

Steelperch wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:25 pm
My portfolio is now up to like 70% Tesla and 10% Bitcoin
Diversify NOW or end-up like the WSB crowd that lost their ass. The next bear market is going to crush Tesla and Bitcoin probably on the order of 70%+. Both are massive bubbles. They will get destroyed in a market correction, much less a bear market.

Also, a big boost to Tesla in the past year was Robinhood investors. When the dumbasses start buying your stock, it's time to cash out.
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Post by Kodiak » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:18 am

Steelperch wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:46 pm
My plan is to hold Tesla until 2030 at least, but please don’t listen to me. I’m just some asshole with access to the internet. Do your own research.
Just to drive the point home...Tesla's major markets are all commodities. There is plenty of emerging competition in batteries. And in charging stations. And it's laughable that they would be worth more than the next 7 top automakers combined. They are maybe about 2 years ahead of others in self-driving tech.

The fundamental value of that company is worth WAY LESS than it's market cap. I don't know, 50% on the bull side, 10% on the bear side. Don't be like the GME idiots thinking the stock will just keep going up and up - take some gains, or get left holding the bag.
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Post by 955876 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:16 pm

In other Tesla news, it’s said the company hasn’t made any type of matching contribution to their employees 401k in last three years.

Not related to the price of its stock but a bit fucked up given all the factors I think.

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Post by 955876 » Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:20 pm

WSB new target is pot stocks. TLRY up +546% already in 2021.

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Post by LakecrestSteeler » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:27 pm

955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:20 pm
WSB new target is pot stocks. TLRY up +546% already in 2021.
My son was all over that news yesterday! In the deepest irony, his not having much $ to invest in the actual stocks is intimately intermingled with the stocks success!

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Post by SteelPro » Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:45 pm

955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:16 pm
In other Tesla news, it’s said the company hasn’t made any type of matching contribution to their employees 401k in last three years.

Not related to the price of its stock but a bit fucked up given all the factors I think.
And news more related to their stock price is that:

1) Chinese government is starting assert some regulatory pressures on them
2) Competition is heating up... Ford Mach-E rave reviews and strong January deliveries, VW 230K EVs sold in 2020 and ID.4 coming to US, GM commitment to all EV by 2035, etc...

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Post by Steelperch » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:53 am

Kodiak wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:15 am
Steelperch wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:25 pm
My portfolio is now up to like 70% Tesla and 10% Bitcoin
Diversify NOW or end-up like the WSB crowd that lost their ass. The next bear market is going to crush Tesla and Bitcoin probably on the order of 70%+. Both are massive bubbles. They will get destroyed in a market correction, much less a bear market.

Also, a big boost to Tesla in the past year was Robinhood investors. When the dumbasses start buying your stock, it's time to cash out.
“Diversification is a protection against ignorance, it makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing” -Warren Buffet

The WSB guys largely made money, the ones that lost money got in late and were playing chicken with hedge funds over two dying companies. That’s a far cry from the most disruptive company and store of value on the planet.

Tesla has so much more room to grow, so many revenue streams, and such a massive lead on competition I have zero interest in selling a single share. No other auto manufacturer has over the air updates and the ability to instantaneous turn on autonomous driving on all of their existing vehicles. That’ll happen for Tesla in the next year. It’s printing money at that point. Robo taxis will be huge.

As far as Bitcoin, it operates completely independently from the stock market. What do you think will happen when Oracle places a massive order for Bitcoin in the coming weeks? Then Apple who is sitting on $200 billion puts a few percent into Bitcoin in the next few months? MasterCard just announced it will enable companies to accept Bitcoin as for of payment later this year. Dominoes are falling one by one. Bitcoin isn’t just traded by computer nerd kids anymore. It’s billionaires and Fortune 500 companies pouring in billions. Payment processors like Square, PayPal, and now MasterCard are in. Very soon Visa, American Expresss, Apple and Amazon will be in. You can’t put the toothpaste back in the tube at this point.

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Post by Steelperch » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:59 am

955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:20 pm
WSB new target is pot stocks. TLRY up +546% already in 2021.
The only pot play I mess with is Planet 13. They’ve got a good business model and balance sheet. ACB, Tilray, and CGC are all running like crazy on the news Biden might legalize pot, or federally decriminalize it soon. If that doesn’t happen, these stocks will crash. If it does happen, the industry will still face an uphill climb and these companies still have shitty balance sheets.

I’d put more money into PLNHF, but I avoid the others. I got into planet when it was around $4.

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Post by 955876 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 4:04 pm

I held some YOLO for a bit. Got tired of seeing it underwater so ended up selling it for a loss in 2019 to offset some cap gains I had elsewhere.

Not really missing much with this recent rally as it is only about $2 above where I sold it. So this big move would have just gotten me back.

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Post by Steelperch » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:35 pm

Doing some quick math... assuming Tesla bought their Bitcoin last month around 34,000 per coin as I’ve seen reported, they have already made around $700 million in profits. Alt coin Cardano has gone from 15 cents to 95 cents per coin so far this year and it looks to be headed to $2 ... Crypto is on fire and I think that will be the story of 2021.

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Post by 955876 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:55 pm

And I’m not allowed buy any of it at present.

So fully having to watch from the sidelines.

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Post by Steelperch » Thu Feb 11, 2021 8:38 pm

955876 wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 6:55 pm
And I’m not allowed buy any of it at present.

So fully having to watch from the sidelines.
For work or personally? I’m to the point where I think everyone should own at least a little.

I watched from the sidelines on crypto for a long time, finally dove in last year. I think we might be at a once in a lifetime opportunity right now. Internal Citibank memo was leaked stating they expect Bitcoin over $300k this year. Twitter, Oracle, and Apple are all rumored to be buying or announcing soon that they put money into it. I’ve read that a $50,000 price is key because it represent $1 trillion total value of Bitcoin and at that point many other companies will trust it as a store of value and come flooding in. The stock market seems to be moving sideways and crypto is running wild.

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Post by 955876 » Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:25 pm

It’s a bit complicated.

Professionally not able to buy it for self or others at this point. That’ll change soon as I’ve spoken several times to the head of alternatives strategies about it.

By then though the damn thing could already be at $100k.

Personally, all my investments & trading activity is also through my firm. Now I could set-up an outside account but if I do so must disclose that outside trading account each year during annual audit.

And one thing I’ve learned over the past couple of decades is it is best to answer “no” as much as possible on those audit questions or else have to deal with additional monitoring, questions, disclosures etc.

I try to stay off as many internal “risk managers” list & radar as possible.

So I’ll just watch this one pass me by at present. Will likely dabble once it opens up on our platforms. I can easily convert dollars to say Euros in an account. Be nice if I could do the same from $$ into Bitcoin.

Those days that I get my panties in a bunch that I’ve missed out I’ll just look at my position in Apple and be thankful I’ve been buying and holding that one for a loooong time. Takes some of the sting away.

Certainly wish I threw some money there a few years back. Would have been worth the trouble using the benefit of hindsight. But then, a few years ago I thought this was a bunch on nonsense.

Ummm I’m going to pay for some terabyte of data somewhere. Why exactly??

One thing I’m starting to learn is I can’t become an old dog unwilling to learn new tricks. Need to open up to things unfamiliar in an investment sense.

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Post by LakecrestSteeler » Thu Feb 11, 2021 11:44 pm

@955876 are you precluded from buying Grayscale too? I know you mentioned it several posts ago, but wasn’t sure if that was included on your company’s investment firewall.

I am getting ready to take the plunge on Grayscale. I don’t have the comfortable liquidity to buy outside my 401k umbrella and don’t want to open another IRA at this point, so am think Grayscale scratches the itch.

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Post by 955876 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 12:55 am

Yep. Zero crypto. Not even Grayscale

System auto blocks the trade if you are to try to push one through.

Like I said, I could have opened an account outside my firm elsewhere but that creates a situation where I must disclose, answer questions about it etc etc.

Not a huge deal but (1) not something I wanted to put up with unnecessarily and (2) over something I didn’t even understand why people would want to invest in.

In hindsight I wish I had thrown some $$$ at it

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:26 pm

Kodiak wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:15 am
Steelperch wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:25 pm
My portfolio is now up to like 70% Tesla and 10% Bitcoin
Diversify NOW or end-up like the WSB crowd that lost their ass. The next bear market is going to crush Tesla and Bitcoin probably on the order of 70%+. Both are massive bubbles. They will get destroyed in a market correction, much less a bear market.

Also, a big boost to Tesla in the past year was Robinhood investors. When the dumbasses start buying your stock, it's time to cash out.
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:28 pm

Kodiak wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 5:18 am
Steelperch wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 8:46 pm
My plan is to hold Tesla until 2030 at least, but please don’t listen to me. I’m just some asshole with access to the internet. Do your own research.
Just to drive the point home...Tesla's major markets are all commodities. There is plenty of emerging competition in batteries. And in charging stations. And it's laughable that they would be worth more than the next 7 top automakers combined. They are maybe about 2 years ahead of others in self-driving tech.

The fundamental value of that company is worth WAY LESS than it's market cap. I don't know, 50% on the bull side, 10% on the bear side. Don't be like the GME idiots thinking the stock will just keep going up and up - take some gains, or get left holding the bag.
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:29 pm

955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:16 pm
In other Tesla news, it’s said the company hasn’t made any type of matching contribution to their employees 401k in last three years.

Not related to the price of its stock but a bit fucked up given all the factors I think.
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sat Feb 13, 2021 1:40 pm

the auto stock to start buying now is Ford....XPEV and NIO too......along with Honda and Toyota

Those 5 will beat TSLA soon
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Post by LakecrestSteeler » Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:47 am

955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:16 pm
In other Tesla news, it’s said the company hasn’t made any type of matching contribution to their employees 401k in last three years.

Not related to the price of its stock but a bit fucked up given all the factors I think.
This can be a bit misleading.

Depends on what they are paying and where they are at in relation to the competition’s pay scale.

Just a reminder it is some percentage of $19,500.

Most companies match like 3-5% which is peanuts! 5% is $975.

I don’t know how many people max out their 401Ks. Probably should be 100% when you do the math on putting zero in versus $19500.

...now look at this:
Like most other tech companies, Tesla is offering stock options and grants as part of its compensation packages. But unlike most automakers, the company is offering stock compensations for all employees throughout the organization, including production associates and sales staff, which is rare in the auto industry.

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Post by SteelPro » Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:37 am

LakecrestSteeler wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 1:47 am
955876 wrote:
Wed Feb 10, 2021 4:16 pm
In other Tesla news, it’s said the company hasn’t made any type of matching contribution to their employees 401k in last three years.

Not related to the price of its stock but a bit fucked up given all the factors I think.
This can be a bit misleading.

Depends on what they are paying and where they are at in relation to the competition’s pay scale.

Just a reminder it is some percentage of $19,500.

Most companies match like 3-5% which is peanuts! 5% is $975.

I don’t know how many people max out their 401Ks. Probably should be 100% when you do the math on putting zero in versus $19500.

...now look at this:
Like most other tech companies, Tesla is offering stock options and grants as part of its compensation packages. But unlike most automakers, the company is offering stock compensations for all employees throughout the organization, including production associates and sales staff, which is rare in the auto industry.
You are incorrect. Matching is not some percentage of $19,500. That is a personal contribution limit and has nothing at all to do with a 401k match. If you make 100k and contribute 5% to your 401k and your company matches up to 5% then your company is giving you $5000 in matching funds. Let me tell you how most big tech companies compensate, or are least how the one I work for does. I get a 100% match up to 6% and I get stock options and I get restricted stock grants. These are issued every year in March along with my annual bonus (I also get quarterly bonuses). The blocks of options and grants vest over a period of 5 years. The options expire in 10 years. All my options are currently “in the money”. No vesting schedule for my 401k match dollars. That is immediate. The value of issued stock/grants/bonus/401k match/other benefits is an addition of roughly 35% on top of my salary which forms my total compensation package. Total Compensation is really what it all comes down to in comparing between offers.
Last edited by SteelPro on Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Post by SteelPro » Sun Feb 14, 2021 4:54 am

This is data on what the average 401k match contribute is:

Average employer contribution: $4,040
Probably the best feature of 401(k) plans is the employer contribution — aka free money — typically provided by matching a portion of what employees save. Employers contribute $4,040 a year on average, according to Fidelity’s data.

Average 401(k) match: 4.2%
There’s a dizzying array of formulas companies use to determine how much of your contributions they’ll match. The most common formula, according to Vanguard’s 2018 How America Saves report, is 50% of every dollar an employee contributes, up to 6% of salary.

The more telling number is the value of the match. That figure — according to Vanguard — is 4.2% of pay on average.


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/does- ... 2019-06-14

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Post by 955876 » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:46 pm

This can be a bit misleading.

Depends on what they are paying and where they are at in relation to the competition’s pay scale.

Just a reminder it is some percentage of $19,500.

Most companies match like 3-5% which is peanuts! 5% is $975.

I don’t know how many people max out their 401Ks. Probably should be 100% when you do the math on putting zero in versus $19500.

...now look at this:
Like most other tech companies, Tesla is offering stock options and grants as part of its compensation packages. But unlike most automakers, the company is offering stock compensations for all employees throughout the organization, including production associates and sales staff, which is rare in the auto industry.
It’s a % of income, not of the $19,500. And over time it accounts for quite a bit. You are not looking at it correctly. Steelpro does a good good job of explaining it.

As for the stock grants it’s great Tesla does it but that is standard in the industry. Also, it isn’t money that can be taken with you immediately either. There is lots of movement in the tech industry. So while the stock grant is nice, it is t so much if I take an offer elsewhere or get laid off prior to those shares vesting.

I could leave the day after receiving the matching contribution however.

I’ve been screwed by this very thing actually. I had made a firm change back in like 03. New place had given me restricted stock as part of total package. Nice but with an 8 year vest. Well, 2008 rolls around and my firm gets acquired by firm I had left. How it was decided the unvested shares would be handled was to make them all 100% vested and distribute them out. Oh but not the shares themselves, we are going to liquidate upon that immediate vesting and issue you the proceeds.

Ummm ya but at an extremely depressed share price. That one cost me about $75,000

The other issue is that steers too much of employees comp to the companies shares. While that is great when the stock is soaring it isn’t so great when you turn on the news tomorrow morning to see that Elon Musk has been arrested as it’s been discovered he bore a tunnel from
his home to Epstein’s Lolita island and would take a hyperloop there several times a week to molest children.

Hey, nothing surprises me these days.

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Post by LakecrestSteeler » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:06 pm

Well I guess I have been getting paid more in my 401K than I thought. It is still peanuts.

I have been maxing for a while now so I guess I don’t pay attention.

My current company and prior company only gave stock options to a very select portion of the work force, and that portion was reduced after about the 3rd reorg. 4% at currently company and I think it was 4% at last company.

I am not in tech and just assumed it was ball park in my industry versus others. I knew payscale wasn’t the same.

But if you are getting Tesla stock, that is some pretty nice coin even if you have to wait 3 years for it to vest.

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Post by SteelPro » Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:53 pm

955876 wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:46 pm
This can be a bit misleading.

Depends on what they are paying and where they are at in relation to the competition’s pay scale.

Just a reminder it is some percentage of $19,500.

Most companies match like 3-5% which is peanuts! 5% is $975.

I don’t know how many people max out their 401Ks. Probably should be 100% when you do the math on putting zero in versus $19500.

...now look at this:
Like most other tech companies, Tesla is offering stock options and grants as part of its compensation packages. But unlike most automakers, the company is offering stock compensations for all employees throughout the organization, including production associates and sales staff, which is rare in the auto industry.
It’s a % of income, not of the $19,500. And over time it accounts for quite a bit. You are not looking at it correctly. Steelpro does a good good job of explaining it.

As for the stock grants it’s great Tesla does it but that is standard in the industry. Also, it isn’t money that can be taken with you immediately either. There is lots of movement in the tech industry. So while the stock grant is nice, it is t so much if I take an offer elsewhere or get laid off prior to those shares vesting.

I could leave the day after receiving the matching contribution however.

I’ve been screwed by this very thing actually. I had made a firm change back in like 03. New place had given me restricted stock as part of total package. Nice but with an 8 year vest. Well, 2008 rolls around and my firm gets acquired by firm I had left. How it was decided the unvested shares would be handled was to make them all 100% vested and distribute them out. Oh but not the shares themselves, we are going to liquidate upon that immediate vesting and issue you the proceeds.

Ummm ya but at an extremely depressed share price. That one cost me about $75,000

The other issue is that steers too much of employees comp to the companies shares. While that is great when the stock is soaring it isn’t so great when you turn on the news tomorrow morning to see that Elon Musk has been arrested as it’s been discovered he bore a tunnel from
his home to Epstein’s Lolita island and would take a hyperloop there several times a week to molest children.

Hey, nothing surprises me these days.
FWIW tech industry is so highly competitive for skilled workers you can get a lot of concessions in negotiated offers. I nearly took an offer from another company about 18 months ago. Company I was considering was willing to give me a signing bonus immediately, but hold my start date for 4 months until my next stock vesting date so I could collect once more on my way out the door. And they were going to give a second signing bonus the following year to compensate for loss of stock/options the next year.

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Post by 955876 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:00 am

Well I guess I have been getting paid more in my 401K than I thought. It is still peanuts.

I have been maxing for a while now so I guess I don’t pay attention.
I guess I’d disagree that it amounts to “peanuts”.

My company only matches up to 4% but that still amounts to an employer contribution of $11,219 on top of my $19,500.

Run the math and what I really received was a 58% increase to the $$ i allocated. That adds up over time.

On top of that, my 401k returned approx. 45% last year. So that 11,219 matching contribution I received early January appreciated to about $16,000.

Run that over 15 years and you get to almost a quarter of a million dollars just from matching contributions and the compounding growth of those $$$.

Now 45% isn’t a given annually so loose numbers used in that example. But you should get the point.

It’s really not “peanuts”. Especially when those matching dollars don’t amount to compensation or get exposed to any tax in the here and now.
Last edited by 955876 on Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:06 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by 955876 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:04 am

SteelPro wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:53 pm
955876 wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:46 pm
This can be a bit misleading.

Depends on what they are paying and where they are at in relation to the competition’s pay scale.

Just a reminder it is some percentage of $19,500.

Most companies match like 3-5% which is peanuts! 5% is $975.

I don’t know how many people max out their 401Ks. Probably should be 100% when you do the math on putting zero in versus $19500.

...now look at this:
Like most other tech companies, Tesla is offering stock options and grants as part of its compensation packages. But unlike most automakers, the company is offering stock compensations for all employees throughout the organization, including production associates and sales staff, which is rare in the auto industry.
It’s a % of income, not of the $19,500. And over time it accounts for quite a bit. You are not looking at it correctly. Steelpro does a good good job of explaining it.

As for the stock grants it’s great Tesla does it but that is standard in the industry. Also, it isn’t money that can be taken with you immediately either. There is lots of movement in the tech industry. So while the stock grant is nice, it is t so much if I take an offer elsewhere or get laid off prior to those shares vesting.

I could leave the day after receiving the matching contribution however.

I’ve been screwed by this very thing actually. I had made a firm change back in like 03. New place had given me restricted stock as part of total package. Nice but with an 8 year vest. Well, 2008 rolls around and my firm gets acquired by firm I had left. How it was decided the unvested shares would be handled was to make them all 100% vested and distribute them out. Oh but not the shares themselves, we are going to liquidate upon that immediate vesting and issue you the proceeds.

Ummm ya but at an extremely depressed share price. That one cost me about $75,000

The other issue is that steers too much of employees comp to the companies shares. While that is great when the stock is soaring it isn’t so great when you turn on the news tomorrow morning to see that Elon Musk has been arrested as it’s been discovered he bore a tunnel from
his home to Epstein’s Lolita island and would take a hyperloop there several times a week to molest children.

Hey, nothing surprises me these days.
FWIW tech industry is so highly competitive for skilled workers you can get a lot of concessions in negotiated offers. I nearly took an offer from another company about 18 months ago. Company I was considering was willing to give me a signing bonus immediately, but hold my start date for 4 months until my next stock vesting date so I could collect once more on my way out the door. And they were going to give a second signing bonus the following year to compensate for loss of stock/options the next year.
Nice position to be in.

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Post by COR-TEN » Mon Feb 15, 2021 1:40 am

SteelPro wrote:
Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:53 pm
FWIW tech industry is so highly competitive for skilled workers you can get a lot of concessions in negotiated offers. I nearly took an offer from another company about 18 months ago. Company I was considering was willing to give me a signing bonus immediately, but hold my start date for 4 months until my next stock vesting date so I could collect once more on my way out the door. And they were going to give a second signing bonus the following year to compensate for loss of stock/options the next year.
Very fortunate. I'm not saying you don't deserve it, but someone else made that call. Doors were opened for you. Others could have said "Tough shit, I don't have to absorb your loss. You want the job or not?"

Congrats.

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