Stock Market Thread

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Stock Market Thread

Post by Steelperch » Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:38 pm

I know some of you guys out there are investing in the market, figured I’d start a thread to discuss.

EV market is off the charts right now. Retail and travel stocks are starting to rebound with the COVID vaccine news. Tech has been on a positive run for a long time. Crypto is going nuts and with big institutions gobbling it up some are predicting Bitcoin could hit $100,000 or more in the next year.

So what’s everyone investing in now?



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Post by SteelPro » Wed Nov 25, 2020 9:17 pm

I took some profits last week from some of my positions and put a chunk of it toward some Chinese e-commerce stocks that had tumbled a bit due to concerns over potential increased regulations. I might exercise some of my company stock options that just reached an all time high, but I prefer to wait January to do so. If/when I do I’ll hold most as cash for a bit and wait on the next dip.

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Post by Steelperch » Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:07 am

Tesla has been very good to me the last two years. I’m holding it until 2030, if all goes as I expect I’ll also be retiring then. Charging stations like SBE are just starting to run now. I’ve been leery of crypto, but Square and other big financials blowing money into it got me buying that now too.

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Post by Professor Half Wit » Thu Nov 26, 2020 12:16 pm

Steelperch wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 8:38 pm
I know some of you guys out there are investing in the market, figured I’d start a thread to discuss.

EV market is off the charts right now. Retail and travel stocks are starting to rebound with the COVID vaccine news. Tech has been on a positive run for a long time. Crypto is going nuts and with big institutions gobbling it up some are predicting Bitcoin could hit $100,000 or more in the next year.

So what’s everyone investing in now?
30 year old Scotch. Doubt I'll have the patience to see a good return on the investment.
"Just don't kill us."

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:46 pm

Catherine D Wood.....know and follow that name......her ARK ETFs are $$$$$

Stay tech leader heavy.....ADBE SQ AMZN TSLA etc etc
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Post by 955876 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:32 pm

30 year old Scotch. Doubt I'll have the patience to see a good return on the investment.
Quite the dilemma I’ve grappled with myself. Save that hard to come by bottle and see if it appreciates or drink the golden nectar inside.

I’ve come up with a great solution albeit not one free of issues. From personal experience, it’s a safe bet your spouse might not care for the following strategy. It also completely fucks up potential profit margins.

If able, simply buy two or more. One as the long-term keeper and the other to drink, share, enjoy.

Problem solved... 8-)

As for stocks, four I didn’t own coming into 2020 is Beyond Meat (BYND), Boston Beer (SAM), and Chewy (CHWY). Made over 100% on the last two and close to 80% on BYND. Big home run however was Zoom (ZM). Thought I was paying waaay too much when paying about $130/share back in March. Bought in taxable account so would be able to harvest the loss if it didn’t work out.

Wouldn’t buy any of them here and will be trimming back after 1st of year quite a bit if not removing altogether.

Also made some easy money (30% range) bottom feeding on some energy stocks over past couple months. The dividend yield alone makes them an easy hold for time being.

Been long AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, FDN for a looong time. Especially the AAPL.

And as much as I often disagree with STD on any number of things I have to 100% concur with him here in regards to Catherine Wood and her ARK strategies. Business partner and myself started utilizing these about 2016/2017 in limited capacity and have increased that quite a bit last couple of years. Pretty much consider them a must own if talking a long-term portfolio.

If not sure which to use then just buy the ARKK. It’s the mothership that contains the widest coverage of their sub-styles or sector plays.

If taking new positions would be good idea to DCA into them on market dips as the “worst”performer for the year of the 5 ARK ETFs I follow is up just over 87% for year. The genomics play up almost 140%. So tread lightly.

These are great for exposure to what I’ll refer to as “new tech”. An area I’d much prefer to keep it simple (a great rule in general) and pool exposures as I don’t want to have to try and pick winners & losers out of a bunch or new and emerging companies/technology.

But that is just regurgitating what has worked. Small cap value is an area that was hit very hard during the market decline back in Feb/March but didn’t participate in the rebound like growth and particularly tech.

If putting new money to work I’d be looking at more of the losers than these recent winners. Small value, EM, energy. Would also try to be patient and remember that markets are again at all-time highs. Buy quality and buy the dips.
Last edited by 955876 on Sat Nov 28, 2020 10:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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Post by SteelPro » Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:16 pm

955876 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 7:32 pm
30 year old Scotch. Doubt I'll have the patience to see a good return on the investment.
Quite the dilemma I’ve grappled with myself. Save that hard to come by bottle and see if it appreciates or drink the golden nectar inside.

I’ve come up with a great solution albeit not one free of issues. From personal experience, it’s a safe bet your spouse might not care for the following strategy. It also completely fucks up potential profit margins.

If able, simply buy two or more. One as the long-term keeper and the other to drink, share, enjoy.

Problem solved... 8-)

As for stocks, four I didn’t own coming into 2020 is Beyond Meat (BYND), Boston Beer (SAM), and Chewy (CHWY). Made over 100% on the last two and close to 80% on BYND. Big home run however was Zoom (ZM). Thought I was paying waaay too much when paying about $130/share back in March. Bought in taxable account so would be able to harvest the loss if it didn’t work out.

Wouldn’t buy any of them here and will be trimming back after 1st of year quite a bit if not removing altogether.

Also made some easy money (30% range) bottom feeding on some energy stocks over past couple months. The dividend yield alone makes them an easy hold for time being.

Been long AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, NFLX, FDN for a looong time. Especially the AAPL.

And as much as I often disagree with STD on any number of things I have to 100% concur with him here in regards to Catherine Wood and her ARK strategies. Started utilizing those about 2016/2017 in limited capacity and have increased that quite a bit last couple of years.

If not sure which to use then just buy the ARKK. It’s the mothership that contains the widest coverage of their sub-styles or sector plays.

If taking new positions would be good idea to DCA into them on market dips as the “worst”performer for the year of the 5 ARK ETFs I follow is up just over 87% for year. The genomics play up almost 140%. So tread lightly.

These are great for exposure to what I’ll refer to as “new tech”. An area I’d much prefer to keep it simple (a great rule in general) and pool exposures as I don’t want to have to try and pick winners & losers out of a bunch or new and emerging companies/technology.

But that is just regurgitating what has worked. Small cap value is an area that was hit very hard during the market decline back in Feb/March but didn’t participate in the rebound like growth and particularly tech.

If putting new money to work I’d be looking at more of the losers than these recent winners. Small value, EM, energy. Would also try to be patient and remember that markets are again at all-time highs. Buy quality and buy the dips.
Funny you mentioned Chewy. That's one of the two positioned I paired back and took some profits on recently. The other being Upwork. As for the tech stocks that you are long on I favor Microsoft myself. It is a great cloud play that had been under much less regulation scrutiny compared to Amazon and Google. As I mentioned earlier I also like Alibaba though, which I just bought on a dip due to regulation concerns. I think Netflix is a bad play now. I think growth will be tough for them with the glut of new streamers, and content costs for them is going to be harder for them to contain compared with the streaming services from the traditional big entertainment/media companies that can lean into their existing synergies.

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Post by 955876 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 8:43 pm

I think Netflix is a bad play now. I think growth will be tough for them with the glut of new streamers, and content costs for them is going to be harder for them to contain compared with the streaming services from the traditional big entertainment/media companies that can lean into their existing synergies.
Probably right. I also don’t like that research is all over the place with it either. One I follow rates it a buy with $640 price target while another an outright sell with $200 target.

Given I own this one in a taxable capacity I’d prefer to watch it decline some than sell here and realize large cap gain. I try to harvest losses to offset gains but have nothing at present to do so with. Even my airline stock is in the green.

As are the Snowflake shares I bought on IPO day. Something I almost never do unless able to buy where it prices. Caved to some of the Buffet hype on this one.

And for me, the Chewy was literally just a whim. Did it because my daughter is always ordering shit for her pets online.

Made some decent money over the years on conservative stuff like Walmart, Proctor & Gamble, CVS etc as well. Been sitting on WMT for last five years and more than doubled investment not even counting dividends. I like to buy some of these blue chip types when out of favor and hold for multiple years. The dividend yield way better than cash and on par with short-term bonds but with much better upside.

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Post by 955876 » Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:22 pm

And we can all brag bout our winners. Be bold and put up your losers.

I had some exposure to energy MLPs that completely exploded in March. Down about 85% and will likely take much longer to recover than will the broader energy sector and particularly the majors. Making matter worse, held in my IRA so no way to harvest the loss for tax purposes.

Same with a couple of REITs I was holding. Moral of story, don’t get sucked into the tractor beam of high dividend yields. The risk when it decides to rear its ugly head can and often does eliminate all reward you’ve gained during your holding period.

Tried to make best of a bad situation by doing an in-kind transfer of shares from regular IRA to a Roth IRA. Realized income was minimal given shares were trading at less than a $1 at the time of conversion. If they ever recover I’ll be able to take the money out of Roth tax free. If they don’t recover I’m no worse off and at the least got the ugly red stain off the the IRA statement.

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Post by Steelperch » Sun Nov 29, 2020 3:44 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Fri Nov 27, 2020 9:46 pm
Catherine D Wood.....know and follow that name......her ARK ETFs are $$$$$

Stay tech leader heavy.....ADBE SQ AMZN TSLA etc etc
I own ARKG ARKK ARKF ARKQ. I’ve been trying to time the rebound of travel and retail stocks. CAKE and JWN are treating me well. Maybe BA and CCL will soon.

My only losers I’ve picked have been marijuana stocks. Every last one of them cost me money. I’m staying out of that space. I’m the only person who can’t get high on weed apparently.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 4:56 pm

UNLESS you are going to be married to the market MOST people should probably do a few things:

1) Stay away from individual stocks most of the time except for maybe market/segment leaders like ADBE TSLA SQ for example.
2) Invest mainly in mutual funds or ETFs. Invest long term in those that outperform the market. Buy hold and compound your dividends/interest
3) Know the difference between active and passive managed funds/ETFs
4) If you feel you must buy individual stocks follow the big players. Find the best mutual funds and ETFs over a number of years and investigate their largest holdings. Buy those. Stay informed. Research their thoughts on target prices.
5) Diversity is good. Most people diversify too much and get tired trying to follow news on their holdings and end up making bad decisions at bad times. Im am in and out of the futures market 24 hrs a day. I daytrade all the time. However my only longterm holdings are a Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund, and the ARK ETFs. Let the professionals do their thing.
6) Download TD Ameritrade's Think Or Swim platform. Research and learn and use 10 period simple moving average, 50 period simple moving average, and 200 period simple moving average. The app is free to download. Its a decent platform that is fairly easy to look at after you learn a few things.
7) Buy hold compound is the best strategy for most people.
8) Remember that most "crashes" arent really crashes even when everyone says they are. Lol. If there really is a crash....your money and everyone elses wont matter anyway. Lol
9) After a big drop wait for some candles to move sideways for a bit. Buy when that sideways move is broken to the upside.
10) Shorting should only ever be done by professionals. Avoid that temptation at all costs if you are an investor who dabbles and manages some of your own capital on the side. Up is the natural order of the market. Normal investors should almost always go long.
11) Most actively managed funds lag behind passively managed funds longterm. If you get in an actively managed fund look for longterm outperformance of both the S&P 500 and a comparable passively managed fund.
Last edited by SteelerDayTrader on Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:01 pm

955876 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:22 pm
And we can all brag bout our winners. Be bold and put up your losers.
I lost my entire life savings in under a year before I began to really learn daytrading.

You dont even know what you dont even know but most unfortunately you think that you do applies x100000000
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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 7:27 pm

My only losers I’ve picked have been marijuana stocks. Every last one of them cost me money. I’m staying out of that space. I’m the only person who can’t get high on weed apparently.
Bunch of dogs. The whole damn group. Now there are some that are up for year as well as over past 52 weeks but for most part they stink.

I personally owned one cannabis ETF. Sold it December of 2019 at a 60% loss. Looked at it just now to see it’s one that is actually having a good year, up +38%. I would have still been underwater had I kept it though.

Have a few clients that insist on owning them. None have positions in the green (no pun intended).

Way I figure it the cream in that sector will rise to the top and as the industry matures those stocks will start to get more coverage by traditional PMs.

Big thing working against these stocks is that none (least last I checked) are part of any major index. Without that there will never be heavy institutional buying.

Another thing working against the group is questionable & inexperienced management at many of these companies popping up. People are buying the hype more so than the company, it’s management, and it’s financials.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:50 pm

Pot stocks had low floats and pump and dump syndicates bought in big and then dropped them hard...

I think that made institutional buyers wary.....along with a few other points.....

1) pot is easy to grow and pretty harmless to most people. If it ever became totally grow your own legal there would be not as much money as people think made selling it as a recreational drug. Organic tomatoes are great. There is only so much people will pay for stuff they can pretty much grow anywhere

2) The pills/oils are great but the money in those areas is in the processing. And doing it certifiably legally. Not as low cost as just growing weed. And in that arena there are alot of wheels to be greased. Regulatory and otherwise.

3) Whenever the P&D crowd get involved and low floats start exploding you can bet everybody is trying to get in on it except institutional players that matter. Lol. Those guys hate low floats. They want steady signals. Also quite a few "pot stocks" became pot companies overnight. Lol. Just add marijuana pharma to the company bio. Lol. Same way with crypto before weed stocks jumped.

4) The medical industry will continue to escalate long term but its in flux right now. Its gonna get paid whether its out of pocket as it is now or a new deal social system
Marijuana is in that sphere. I would consider big med/pharma players before Id look at strictly pot stocks. Particularly low floats
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:53 pm

You wanna take longshot flyers on companies ?? Look for companies building/promoting platforms of any kind......thats where the $$$$ are in the new century
Last edited by SteelerDayTrader on Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:56 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 5:01 pm
955876 wrote:
Sat Nov 28, 2020 9:22 pm
And we can all brag bout our winners. Be bold and put up your losers.
I lost my entire life savings in under a year before I began to really learn daytrading.

You dont even know what you dont even know but most unfortunately you think that you do applies x100000000
Ya but it couldn’t have taken all that long to get that $1,000 back right?

I’m kidding I’m kidding.

Lots a very good points in your prior post.

Wanted to elaborate on them a bit. First is #11 and the active/passive debate. It’s correct that many active managers do in fact lag their passive benchmark over time. But that is often looked at in a vacuum. It’s also mostly true when using a long bull run cycle as the barometer.

In times of severe market distress you ideally want to avoid the “market”. This latest downturn due to pandemic a great example. One thing we did tactically was remove all exposure to equally weighted strategies as well as reduce broad based index exposure along with managers that are really just “closet indexers”. In an environment like that you want nibble and the ability to remove companies, sectors, industry groups altogether. Can’t happen in a passive index.

We highly overweighted exposure to PMs that already were running concentrated portfolios (sub 100 companies) knowing wrong or right we are getting their say 50 best names rather than some slightly modified version of a broader index.

Drawdown ended up being not nearly as severe and the bounce sooner and stronger than simply riding it out in passive strategies.

Now that isn’t something to just do if you aren’t sure what you are doing. Often times doing jack shit nothing is best thing you can do. Even if that nothing is riding your Vanguard S&P 500 ETF all the way down and back-up.

I think when most people say “lost all my money in the market” what they are really saying is I made the huge mistake of selling at the bottom and never got back in. Not saying that is your case STD but likely case for most.

I’m not a market timer and consider myself to be a long term investor. Both personally and in practice. So never fully out of the market. I’d say to most people if you didn’t trim positions or reduce exposure down to your comfort level when markets were at all-time highs it certainly isn’t the time to do so once they’ve entered bear market and are down 20% or more. At that point you close your eyes and wait for the recovery. Ok to reposition into something you might think recovers faster or stronger but once you are down big you don’t get out. You add more $$ if at all possible and wait for calmer days. They will come.

Many “experts” thought it’d be multiple years before markets hit new all-time highs following the major drawdown experienced earlier in the year. And by “experts” I’m mostly referring to the chuckleheads you get on the business networks. While not nearly as bad as sports “journalism” many are simply talking out their ass. Ignore most of of it.

Now back to the active/passive thing. If you are going to utilize active managers try to use them in qualified accounts where you’ll pay no tax on cap gains distributions. Especially managers with high portfolio turnover.

Nothing worse than a fund spitting out a large capital gain and even worse doing so a year the fund was negative.

Got bit pretty bad by this a few years ago professionally. A strategy our team had been using heavily for a few years with zero cap gains distributions hit us with a surprise 27%er one year. And did so during a down year.

You live and learn. Really try to limit active exposure (via mutual funds) in taxable accounts since then. Especially large ones. ETFs, individual stocks, and institutional managers where you hold the actual individual positions rather than shares of a fund best way to go in taxable capacity.

Find a hot fund you wanna buy, defer purchase to IRA if possible.

Great thing now is that a lot of ETFs are changing from highly passive index following to more actively traded like a mutual fund.

The ARK ETFs certainly are not passive. First Trust has several active ETFs as well.

Now we can get into a whole side debate about market volatility and how the widespread use of ETFs along with algorithmic trading has augmented this tremendously. An unfortunate reality today’s investor must deal with and ideally try to ignore.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:09 pm

I largely agree 95

I guess my point is.....most people....if they are gonna manage their own $$$.....should probably buy hold and compound just a few solid broad mutual funds and/or ETFs....

Usually when people get into more than a few individual stocks they underperform the market on the whole.
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Post by Steelperch » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:35 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:09 pm
I largely agree 95

I guess my point is.....most people....if they are gonna manage their own $$$.....should probably buy hold and compound just a few solid broad mutual funds and/or ETFs....

Usually when people get into more than a few individual stocks they underperform the market on the whole.
I think that is true for the average Joe. For the educated ones, single stocks is by far the way to go. If I can find the next Tesla, why not gain 5x in a year instead of being happy with 15%. Riding the EV wave the last two years has been something else. Also, diversification is for pussies.

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Post by Stlcrtn1974 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:36 pm

I bought 300 share of workhorse. Hoping for the USPS contract. It is shorted though so much, so everytime it hits 30, it sold off.

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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:42 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:09 pm
I largely agree 95

I guess my point is.....most people....if they are gonna manage their own $$$.....should probably buy hold and compound just a few solid broad mutual funds and/or ETFs....

Usually when people get into more than a few individual stocks they underperform the market on the whole.
Oh I 100% agree with you on that. I’ve been doing this professionally for 20 years now and if I’ve learned anything it’s that when in doubt KISS.

Keep It Simple Stupid

Especially when dealing with alternatives, hedge funds, managed futures, long/short strategies, etc. etc. All things an individual doing it themselves should really never mess with.

Almost at the point where I might cease to utilize them at all in my practice or in real limited capacity. Literally in process now of firing and removing our largest hedge fund strategy from all client portfolios. Something that is a pain the ass and also avoidable if in hindsight I’d have kept it simple stupid.

I do use at times a market neutral convertible arbitrage strategy that to date hasn’t done me wrong (says while knocking on wood).

Pretty consistent single digit returns regardless of market environment.

Don’t use as long-term money maker but rather as an alternative for cash that would otherwise be on sidelines or allocated to bonds.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:57 pm

Steelperch wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:35 pm
SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:09 pm
I largely agree 95

I guess my point is.....most people....if they are gonna manage their own $$$.....should probably buy hold and compound just a few solid broad mutual funds and/or ETFs....

Usually when people get into more than a few individual stocks they underperform the market on the whole.
I think that is true for the average Joe. For the educated ones, single stocks is by far the way to go. If I can find the next Tesla, why not gain 5x in a year instead of being happy with 15%. Riding the EV wave the last two years has been something else. Also, diversification is for pussies.
Thats good Perch......You did well.....most "educated investors" dont even know what they dont know....lol😎
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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:58 pm

Steelperch wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:35 pm
SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:09 pm
I largely agree 95

I guess my point is.....most people....if they are gonna manage their own $$$.....should probably buy hold and compound just a few solid broad mutual funds and/or ETFs....

Usually when people get into more than a few individual stocks they underperform the market on the whole.
I think that is true for the average Joe. For the educated ones, single stocks is by far the way to go. If I can find the next Tesla, why not gain 5x in a year instead of being happy with 15%. Riding the EV wave the last two years has been something else. Also, diversification is for pussies.
Fortis Fortuna Adiuvat

Definitely can make a much much higher return buying individual stocks exclusively.

Provided you pick the right ones and don’t get married to them.

You are right in that not for everyone. The S&P 500 won’t go to zero. Tesla could though.

My big hiccup over the years has been buying individual biotech stocks. Bought one at $47 that had a $100 p/t at the time and had been as high as like $75. Bitch went down to a buck something. Did trade in IRA so can’t take loss. Just an ugly red stain sitting there.

Been gun shy on that space since.

Now I just own the ishare biotech ETF and ARKG.

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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:06 pm

On a side note, be very careful with stop loss orders folks. Especially if putting one on to “protect” a recent purchase or addition to your portfolio.

9 times out of 10 the only thing they accomplish if used in that capacity is guaranteeing a loss.

You buy, put your stop loss in at say -10% and now feel all good bout yourself. Especially when market dips and your stop order executes. Phew, glad I did that you think.

Until 2 1/2 weeks later and that same stock is not only back above your stop price but likely in the green altogether.

I’d say only use to protect gains in something you really dont wish to own long-term that you’ve turned a nice profit on. A trade you move on from and forget about. Otherwise you are just spinning your wheels over normal market fluctuations and will usually come out on the losing end of the trade.

Someone day trading may have a completely different view on that. STD can chime in here.

In general though, using stops to protect what should be a long-term investment tends to not work as desired. You are out, now when to get back in?

Buffett said to never own anything for 10 minutes you aren’t willing to own for 10 years. That’s pretty good advice to follow IMO and why stops tend to be bad idea in many instances.
Last edited by 955876 on Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:24 pm

I think "investors" should avoid stop losses ......unless....they are taking a flyer on a small risky position.....or.....protecting a profit.....

Traders on the other hand need stops.....making $$$ trading really is more about being comfortable taking small losses than anything else....

Most people on there own kinda forget who they are.....traders really should avoid getting pushed into investor thinking........and vice versa for investors....

One thing that can REALLY help anyone in the investor group is to understand and use 10/50/200 SMAs on the 1hr 4hr Daily and Weekly charts

Paul Tudor Jones put it simply.....stay long above the 200.......get short below

Easy huh ?? Lol
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:26 pm

I agree on the 10min/10 year idea wholeheartedly for most investors btw
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:33 pm

I think ideally you want to be building cash reserves at the same time you buy longterm.

That allows 2 different approaches.

1) You have $$$ to ride out a bear market and hit profitability again if you got in at or near a top

2) You have $$$ to buy a breakout from a sideways consolidation move after a drop
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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:47 pm

Paul Tudor Jones put it simply.....stay long above the 200.......get short below

Easy huh ?? Lol
Not easy at all.

Totally agree with the rest of your post re: traders vs investors.

In terms of Tudor comment about the 200 SMA, not really at all. To me something that sounds good in theory but doesn’t work in reality.

Now again, I’m viewing through the lens of long-term investing so the intricacies could be different for a day trader and/or hedge fund manager.

I’ve tracked and even used some managers that strictly adhere to the 200 day and are in/out entirely based on that metric alone. Time and time again they get caught on the wrong side.

What typically happens is they are long for too long and end up getting out or short about the time they should be going long.

At least that’s been my experience with it.

What is key here is say just how high above the 200 day it is to begin with. Works better when the channel is tight.

SteelerDayTrader
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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 10:57 pm

Yeah .....i was being sarcastic about being easy.....lol

I agree on the tight channel idea
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955876
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Post by 955876 » Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:07 pm

Oh I know you were being sarcastic. If it were easy everyone would do it. It’s but one reason why you don’t hear of many day traders like you did a few years back. Most busted out because let’s face it, that shit is hard and most don’t have the liquidity (or access to other peoples money) to continue trading.

Look how shitty or spotty hedge fund performance can be at times.

With that being said, if you break down the basic advice, you, me, and others have said just in this thread it actually can be quite easy.

What I mean by that is even the most novice a person can be very a successful investor if they KISS and stay consistent.

Something as simple as dripping money into the VOO consistently will deliver adequate inflation adjusted returns over time and if that is all the investing they did that’s infinitely better than doing nothing or leaving money in cash/CDs etc.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun Nov 29, 2020 11:19 pm

If youre gonna invest longterm in individual stocks by yourself consider a few things

The stocks market sector.....its place and ability to thrive vs competition in that market sector.....that market sectors role in the world in 10 years....20 years....50....100

Remember......you want to buy the dips.....so.....you want companies you feel real comfortable buying when everyone else is selling

I use the ARK ETFs because they often are on stocks I like anyway.....and....they are better informed than I am at least in regards to fundamentals if not technicals as well.

As an example of a longterm stock I like ADBE. Why ??

It has a near merit monopoly on the graphic design world. And note that a said merit monopoly. I dont know anyone in that field that prefers another option. Think about that. Google has kinda a monopoly as does Amazon.....but.....they both have a notable amount of ill will built up.....I think both are solid plays based on their dominance....but it aint like Adobe....lol.

Additionally graphic design/arts are just exploding in the tech world.....I dont see that ending.....and....im not aware of Adobe having anything close competing with it.....at least not on its total scale.....some smaller limited use apps perhaps.....however Adobe has been pretty good in regards to steadily improving and expanding....its a great longterm play imo.....
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