Stock Market Thread

[Deebo]

FAANG has been a disaster and especially Facebook. I hope it goes the way of MySpace. These metaverse ads are incredibly stupid.

Meta is an absolute mess. I’d never touch that as long as Zuckerberg is involved. Apple, Amazon, Google, and throw in Microsoft are still great long term investments. Obviously hurt by high inflation and other macroeconomic factors, but they’ll be fine in the long run. As I pointed out earlier Netflix has done a really great job of pivoting and course correcting. I still have concerns long term as their early mover advantage continues to erode. Much of their success will be determined by how that industry consolidates and how distribution and bundling evolves. But I think they have some upside here in the intermediate time frame. The analysts that cooled on them previously have been making upward revisions.

Facebook just got tagged for millions in fines by Washington State (or Oregon).

That ship is sinking fast. Zuckerberg got exposed in the senate hearings

[SteelerDayTrader]

The market could be in phase 2 of a head and shoulders pattern, which; if phase 3 completes after phase 2, would portend a notable drop but then very likely a support level

Or

The market could be on the way back up after testing the recent bottom and printing a higher low. If we break 3927.75 while staying above 3704.25

Given the second scenario a trend line extending from 3502 to 3704.25 and beyond is in place and I would look to that beyond vector as the ideal spot currently for a pullback buy and bounce to a higher high if in fact 3927.75 is broken


Finally, as I previously predicted, the Williams %R indicator continues showing divergence to the upside

[SteelerDayTrader]

Well……just like I predicted


3927.75 was smashed through and we are putting in a new recent high……now the only thing that matters is what low will print ?? Will it stay above 3704.25 and go on to print another peak higher ?? If so we have confirmation

Even better ….will it confirm and stay above the trend line extending beyond from 3502 to 3704.25 ??

Breaking the 3927.75 peak was a key factor now we are looking for a low above 3704.25 and yet another peak

If THAT happens you will begin to see money POUR back into the market particularly as the low off the recent high holds

[955876]

Still not getting to new ATH by year end.

[Deebo]

Well……just like I predicted


3927.75 was smashed through and we are putting in a new recent high……now the only thing that matters is what low will print ?? Will it stay above 3704.25 and go on to print another peak higher ?? If so we have confirmation

Even better ….will it confirm and stay above the trend line extending beyond from 3502 to 3704.25 ??

Breaking the 3927.75 peak was a key factor now we are looking for a low above 3704.25 and yet another peak

If THAT happens you will begin to see money POUR back into the market particularly as the low off the recent high holds

Dead cat bounce.
The war in Ukraine and inflation are such significant headwinds, that there's no way this market will push to ATH by year end.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Well……just like I predicted


3927.75 was smashed through and we are putting in a new recent high……now the only thing that matters is what low will print ?? Will it stay above 3704.25 and go on to print another peak higher ?? If so we have confirmation

Even better ….will it confirm and stay above the trend line extending beyond from 3502 to 3704.25 ??

Breaking the 3927.75 peak was a key factor now we are looking for a low above 3704.25 and yet another peak

If THAT happens you will begin to see money POUR back into the market particularly as the low off the recent high holds

Dead cat bounce.
The war in Ukraine and inflation are such significant headwinds, that there's no way this market will push to ATH by year end.

You don’t know what you are talking about

Not a dead cat bounce. A dead cat bounce is left ear peak then sideways movement at the bottom of the left ear forming the top of the cats head then the right ear with a lower peak and a significant down move

Not even close to what is printing right now

[Dan Smith--BYU]

FTX teaching valuable lessons to millennials.

[SteelPro]

Lots of market analysts (real ones that know their shit. not mommy basement dwellers like STD) are seeing tax loss harvesting being a significant headwind this quarter as we wind down to the end of the year. It has been quite a while since markets have been down like this, so investors have way more opportunities to harvest losses this year. The good news is once the calendar flips to January that pressure will be relieved. It could spur a rally to start the new year.

[955876]

Lots of market analysts (real ones that know their shit. not mommy basement dwellers like STD) are seeing tax loss harvesting being a significant headwind this quarter as we wind down to the end of the year. It has been quite a while since markets have been down like this, so investors have way more opportunities to harvest losses this year. The good news is once the calendar flips to January that pressure will be relieved. It could spur a rally to start the new year.

Close to zero opportunity to tax loss harvest last year. Certainly not the case this year.

I’ll be spending pretty much every day till year end dealing with tax loss harvesting.

Something they don’t seem to be factoring though is in most cases there is a concurrent buy that is occurring at the time the loss is harvested.

Selling X to realize a loss while buying Y. So those people you are talking about seem to be leaving the buy out of the equation.

Unless people are leaving those proceeds in cash or buying bonds with the proceeds from stock sales then tax loss harvesting shouldn’t be applying that much downward pressure on the market as there are buys occurring at the same time.

[SteelPro]

Lots of market analysts (real ones that know their shit. not mommy basement dwellers like STD) are seeing tax loss harvesting being a significant headwind this quarter as we wind down to the end of the year. It has been quite a while since markets have been down like this, so investors have way more opportunities to harvest losses this year. The good news is once the calendar flips to January that pressure will be relieved. It could spur a rally to start the new year.

Close to zero opportunity to tax loss harvest last year. Certainly not the case this year.

I’ll be spending pretty much every day till year end dealing with tax loss harvesting.

Something they don’t seem to be factoring though is in most cases there is a concurrent buy that is occurring at the time the loss is harvested.

Selling X to realize a loss while buying Y. So those people you are talking about seem to be leaving the buy out of the equation.

Unless people are leaving those proceeds in cash or buying bonds with the proceeds from stock sales then tax loss harvesting shouldn’t be applying that much downward pressure on the market as there are buys occurring at the same time.

I agree, most of it gets plowed right back into the market. But some doesn't. Personally I've been taking some of my harvested losses to pay off a chunk of my adjustable rate HELOC that is now approaching 9%.

[955876]

adjustable rate HELOC that is now approaching 9%.

Ouch.

Did a cash out refi a few years ago as we were remodeling the kitchen, stairs, and one of the bathrooms.

Don’t plan on staying in the house long-term so wanted the house to pay for the cost rather than coming out of pocket.

Got lucky as mortgage rates were at their lows at the time I did it. My 30 yr. fixed is at 2.25%.

[SteelPro]

adjustable rate HELOC that is now approaching 9%.

Ouch.

Did a cash out refi a few years ago as we were remodeling the kitchen, stairs, and one of the bathrooms.

Don’t plan on staying in the house long-term so wanted the house to pay for the cost rather than coming out of pocket.

Got lucky as mortgage rates were at their lows at the time I did it. My 30 yr. fixed is at 2.25%.

Yeah my primary mortgage is 2.75% fixed. When I took out the HELOC for the renovation last year I considered a cash out refi that would have been around 4.50%. I decided on HELOC for the flexibility and much lower fees involved. I figured rates would go up some eventually... just not this much, this soon. It wasn't all poor timing though. I also took out a $50K loan from my 401k August 2021. That was almost perfect timing.

[955876]

I also took out a $50K loan from my 401k August 2021. That was almost perfect timing.

From market standpoint yes.

Negative of that is you will pay income tax on that $50k twice.

Loan repayments for 401ks are done with after tax dollars.

That money will get taxed again when it comes back out down the road.

Not a huge deal but a factor nonetheless.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Seriously why in the hell would anyone get an adjustable HELOC after what happened in 2008?

No one learns anything anymore.

[955876]

Most HELOCs are adjustable.

I’m sure some fixed or hybrid type exist but in general HELOCS come as adjustable.

Just saying.

[SteelPro]

Seriously why in the hell would anyone get an adjustable HELOC after what happened in 2008?

No one learns anything anymore.

HELOC is a perfectly acceptable loan product under the right conditions. Aren’t too many fixed rate HELOCs. The ones that are out there generally have way more fees and require a minimum initial draw substantially higher than a traditional variable rate HELOC. I had no financial issues in 2008 and I’ll have no issues during this economy/rate environment. I chose the HELOC over liquidating assets or paying much higher closing costs on a cash out refi. If I could have gotten a cash out refi and kept my same ultra low rate (2.75%) I would have done that. Also this HELOC allowed a construction appraisal. The home was appraised based on the expected valuation after the home improvements are completed. Obviously rates climbed a little sooner and steeper than I expected so now I’m pivoting to liquidating the assets to pay down the HELOC. I’m not any worse off.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Large move in the market happening tomorrow

[955876]

Not that it hasn’t been a fact already for months now but I think we can officially put an end to that nonsense about the markets hitting a new ATH by year-end.

One of the worst predictions ever.

Don’t fight the Fed.

Maaaaaaaybe we can revisit for year end 2023.

[SteelPro]

Not that it hasn’t been a fact already for months now but I think we can officially put an end to that nonsense about the markets hitting a new ATH by year-end.

One of the worst predictions ever.

Don’t fight the Fed.

Maaaaaaaybe we can revisit for year end 2023.

but but but... according to STD "Technical analysis has been the main driver of the market for decades now"

I'll give STD a bit of a pass though. His ATH by end of year prediction is only like the 3rd or 4th worst prediction in this thread.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Not that it hasn’t been a fact already for months now but I think we can officially put an end to that nonsense about the markets hitting a new ATH by year-end.

One of the worst predictions ever.

Don’t fight the Fed.

Maaaaaaaybe we can revisit for year end 2023.

but but but... according to STD "Technical analysis has been the main driver of the market for decades now"

I'll give STD a bit of a pass though. His ATH by end of year prediction is only like the 3rd or 4th worst prediction in this thread.

You don’t know what you are talking about

[SteelPro]

Technical analysis has been the main driver of the market for decades now

[SteelerDayTrader]

Technical analysis has been the main driver of the market for decades now

That’s undeniable

[SteelPro]

I am giving technical analysis a bit of a bad rap. It isn't completely pseudoscience. It is just that STD is so truly awful at it and he has no fucking clue what the stuff he is plagiarizing even means. That creates very poor impression of the methodology. It is just like how bad lawyers and bad doctors give those professions a bad rap. STD is the Christopher Duntsch of stock chart analysis.

[Deebo]

I am giving technical analysis a bit of a bad rap. It isn't completely pseudoscience. It is just that STD is so truly awful at it and he has no fucking clue what the stuff he is plagiarizing even means. That creates very poor impression of the methodology. It is just like how bad lawyers and bad doctors give those professions a bad rap. STD is the Christopher Duntsch of stock chart analysis.

Perfectly stated

He's like the Mike Tomlin of this board: throw out some cliches so everyone thinks you're smarter than you are

[SteelerDayTrader]

2 of the board dum dums slagging my analysis

Lolololz

[Deebo]

2 of the board dum dums slagging my analysis

Lolololz

Your "analysis" was way off
So yea, you're gonna get dunked on for saying stupid shit

[SteelerDayTrader]

2 of the board dum dums slagging my analysis

Lolololz

Your "analysis" was way off
So yea, you're gonna get dunked on for saying stupid shit

My analysis is on point

[955876]

Which chart did you use in that “analysis” that had you thinking markets would hit a new ATH by year end?

I’ve got three monitors going. Will pull it up on one of them.

I’m thinking you might have had that chart upside down when you were reading it.

[SteelerDayTrader]

My analysis changed months ago on that.

[955876]

You just said it months ago.