SBI: Week 13....Tomlin's a Ninny

[swissvale72]

.

Insightful

Brevity is a virtue.

Yes it is. But Uncle Lit, could you please tell me the story of the Famous fake not fake FG again? That's my favorite story. And make sure you list all the players that were taken off the field so that lesser players could come on the field. That's my favorite part.

Lifelong, all due respect.

I asked you this previously, but there was no answer. WHERE do you come up with these percentages. Honestly, it seems like you're making shit up, these percentages, to fit your narrative.

That non-fake fake FG was one of the worst coaching decisions that I've ever seen. I posted earlier, and I believe this, that it was worse than the FG Bill FG in the '04 AFCCG. That one seemed worse because of the higher stakes. Actually, they were BOTH dumb as fuck. If this one's not worse, it's in the same ballpark.....and that's not good company to be keeping.

Bogus arguments about percentages, AV being wide open, blah, blah, blah......it was fuckin' stupid...no two ways about it. It was idiotic on its face....and has only gotten worse the more we learn about it.

[Legacy User]

Despite that its a sixty minute game with 100 plays or so, you accumulate points in scores as opposed to being awarded a final score from the judges, and field position changes flow and outcomes, I still love the dismissal of crucial plays as irrelevant to the bigger picture.

The defense was bad as was the TOs and the serial dumb ass decisions

Dismissal is strong word, indeed. I admit, my post was worded rather strongly. All fuck ups contribute ot losses. I consider the pass D a bigger problem than Tomlin's fake FG decision. You are free to disagree if you do.

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

[Gonzo]

Fair enough
Three orange whips

[swissvale72]

Despite that its a sixty minute game with 100 plays or so, you accumulate points in scores as opposed to being awarded a final score from the judges, and field position changes flow and outcomes, I still love the dismissal of crucial plays as irrelevant to the bigger picture.

The defense was bad as was the TOs and the serial dumb ass decisions

Dismissal is strong word, indeed. I admit, my post was worded rather strongly. All fuck ups contribute ot losses. I consider the pass D a bigger problem than Tomlin's fake FG decision. You are free to disagree if you do.

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

Tomlin's dumbfuckedness is the equivalent of gasoline on the fire. Yes, the defense sucked on Sunday. Given that circumstance, we need coaches that aren't assholes. Unfortunately, our coaches are assholes making it even more difficult to win a football game. The fake FG bullshit was absolutely, positively inexcusable....turned the fuckin game around. Then, with a chance to win, Tomlin's scared of his own shadow and kicks a FG with the endzone, and the lead, within spitting distance.

[Legacy User]

Despite that its a sixty minute game with 100 plays or so, you accumulate points in scores as opposed to being awarded a final score from the judges, and field position changes flow and outcomes, I still love the dismissal of crucial plays as irrelevant to the bigger picture.

The defense was bad as was the TOs and the serial dumb ass decisions

Dismissal is strong word, indeed. I admit, my post was worded rather strongly. All fuck ups contribute ot losses. I consider the pass D a bigger problem than Tomlin's fake FG decision. You are free to disagree if you do.

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

Tomlin's dumbfuckedness is the equivalent of gasoline on the fire. Yes, the defense sucked on Sunday. Given that circumstance, we need coaches that aren't assholes. Unfortunately, our coaches are assholes making it even more difficult to win a football game. The fake FG bullshit was absolutely, positively inexcusable....turned the fuckin game around. Then, with a chance to win, Tomlin's scared of his own shadow and kicks a FG with the endzone, and the lead, within spitting distance.

The defense sucked more than Tomlin's decision making. Both sucked. 39 points? 5 (FIVE!) Russell Wilson TD passes?! WTF! I get the Tomlin hate, but the pass D is an unmitigated disaster, You're not going to convince me that Tomlin's FG/TD play call fuck ups were worse than the pass D meltdown against a crew of no name receivers and shit o line protecting Wilson.

We have:
No pass rush.
No elite talent in the secondary and more garbage than good on the field in the secondary.
And a weegie board for in game management.

The fake FG does not enrage me btw. Kicking a FG instead of going for the TD when down 5 on the grounds that the D is going to get a stop ( really Tomlin!) is what enraged me.

[Havoc]

It wasn't a fake field goal.

This is a fake field goal.

The Packers had 4th and 26 on this play...

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wn8DN_FmGpw[/youtube]


I liked Kordell Stewart in the slash role and all the gadgetry of the 1995 offense because we had an inferior qb.

On 4th and short, I prefer to just run the offense with a franchise qb.

Here, Tomlin ran a true fake fg on 4th and less than 1 from inside the opponents 3 yd line while The Franchise stood and watched from the sideline.

Just run the offense!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0ywwwpklmc[/youtube]


I am not opposed to a RB or WR throwing a pass with Ben on the field but there is no reason to go there if the offense is already clicking.

You DO NOT pull The Franchise off the field and put the football into the hands of Landry Jones. Ever!

[Gonzo]

Very well and good idea
Anyone should stop referring to it as a fake FG - because it wasn't
It was a 4th down attempt at a first down from a FG formation

[jeemie]

Despite that its a sixty minute game with 100 plays or so, you accumulate points in scores as opposed to being awarded a final score from the judges, and field position changes flow and outcomes, I still love the dismissal of crucial plays as irrelevant to the bigger picture.

The defense was bad as was the TOs and the serial dumb ass decisions

Dismissal is strong word, indeed. I admit, my post was worded rather strongly. All fuck ups contribute ot losses. I consider the pass D a bigger problem than Tomlin's fake FG decision. You are free to disagree if you do.

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

Because as Louis Lipps pointed out, the pass defense ain't getting fixed anytime soon, but Tomlin could stop being a dumbfuck RIGHT NOW if he just put forth the effort.

His issues are correctable and completely under his control.

The other issues will take time to rectify.

[lifelongsteel]

Lifelong, all due respect.

I asked you this previously, but there was no answer. WHERE do you come up with these percentages. Honestly, it seems like you're making shit up, these percentages, to fit your narrative.

That non-fake fake FG was one of the worst coaching decisions that I've ever seen. I posted earlier, and I believe this, that it was worse than the FG Bill FG in the '04 AFCCG. That one seemed worse because of the higher stakes. Actually, they were BOTH dumb as fuck. If this one's not worse, it's in the same ballpark.....and that's not good company to be keeping.

Bogus arguments about percentages, AV being wide open, blah, blah, blah......it was fuckin' stupid...no two ways about it. It was idiotic on its face....and has only gotten worse the more we learn about it.

Sorry Swiss, I missed your question the first time around.

Here was my thinking:
- FG 85% chance of make from 45 yards. I got this from looking at the stats of all current kickers. This is probably on the high side
- Offense convert 50%. We currently convert on 40% of our 4th down tries. I gave extra credit here because we were moving the ball well
- TD if we convert 40%. We are 55% in the RZ for the year but trending down in the last few games. Also we probably would have converted short of the RZ.
- FG if we convert 60%. Just used 100%. it is obviously lower, but who knows how long the FG try would be
- For the fake, as you might suspect, I didn't really have much info to go on. I looked at a couple of unreliable, small sample size sources. Since I've never seen this type of play before it was hard to judge. 20% seemed right or even low to me based on what I saw - slightly better pass or slightly slower reaction from Lane and in my mind it's a TD.

As Jeemie pointed out earlier, I didn't not calculate a scenario where the regular offense converts and scores. I didn't include this as I thought it was highly unlikely. But it is a fair point.

I broke out the 3 options with probabilities to show how I think about the play and why I think it wasn't, without benefit of hindsight, as bad a decision as many are making it out to be. If you have different estimates plug em in and see what you get. Free country and all that.

FWIW i have no dog in this fight. I have no predetermined narrative i'm trying to support. I am not a Tomlin lover or Tomlin hater. In fact I've often been accused of being too hard on Tomlin re: his game management decisions. In this case I saw a mob with pitchforks and thought I would play devils advocate - which is what i said at the outset.

It's been loads of fun ever since

[swissvale72]

Despite that its a sixty minute game with 100 plays or so, you accumulate points in scores as opposed to being awarded a final score from the judges, and field position changes flow and outcomes, I still love the dismissal of crucial plays as irrelevant to the bigger picture.

The defense was bad as was the TOs and the serial dumb ass decisions

Dismissal is strong word, indeed. I admit, my post was worded rather strongly. All fuck ups contribute ot losses. I consider the pass D a bigger problem than Tomlin's fake FG decision. You are free to disagree if you do.

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

Because as Louis Lipps pointed out, the pass defense ain't getting fixed anytime soon, but Tomlin could stop being a dumbfuck RIGHT NOW if he just put forth the effort.

His issues are correctable and completely under his control.

The other issues will take time to rectify.

Exactly right. If we have shitty players in the secondary, only so much can be done. ONE of the things that can be done is for coaching staff not to make dumb as fuck decisions

[Legacy User]

Lifelong, all due respect.

I asked you this previously, but there was no answer. WHERE do you come up with these percentages. Honestly, it seems like you're making shit up, these percentages, to fit your narrative.

That non-fake fake FG was one of the worst coaching decisions that I've ever seen. I posted earlier, and I believe this, that it was worse than the FG Bill FG in the '04 AFCCG. That one seemed worse because of the higher stakes. Actually, they were BOTH dumb as fuck. If this one's not worse, it's in the same ballpark.....and that's not good company to be keeping.

Bogus arguments about percentages, AV being wide open, blah, blah, blah......it was fuckin' stupid...no two ways about it. It was idiotic on its face....and has only gotten worse the more we learn about it.

Sorry Swiss, I missed your question the first time around.

Here was my thinking:
- FG 85% chance of make from 45 yards. I got this from looking at the stats of all current kickers. This is probably on the high side
- Offense convert 50%. We currently convert on 40% of our 4th down tries. I gave extra credit here because we were moving the ball well
- TD if we convert 40%. We are 55% in the RZ for the year but trending down in the last few games. Also we probably would have converted short of the RZ.
- FG if we convert 60%. Just used 100%. it is obviously lower, but who knows how long the FG try would be
- For the fake, as you might suspect, I didn't really have much info to go on. I looked at a couple of unreliable, small sample size sources. Since I've never seen this type of play before it was hard to judge. 20% seemed right or even low to me based on what I saw - slightly better pass or slightly slower reaction from Lane and in my mind it's a TD.

As Jeemie pointed out earlier, I didn't not calculate a scenario where the regular offense converts and scores. I didn't include this as I thought it was highly unlikely. But it is a fair point.

I broke out the 3 options with probabilities to show how I think about the play and why I think it wasn't, without benefit of hindsight, as bad a decision as many are making it out to be. If you have different estimates plug em in and see what you get. Free country and all that.

FWIW i have no dog in this fight. I have no predetermined narrative i'm trying to support. I am not a Tomlin lover or Tomlin hater. In fact I've often been accused of being too hard on Tomlin re: his game management decisions. In this case I saw a mob with pitchforks and thought I would play devils advocate - which is what i said at the outset.

It's been loads of fun ever since

So Liflelong... 20% for that abomination of a trickplay. And im on record as saying AV not open and that would have been a miracle pass for LJ to make. ok fine 20% in your view. You didn't bother to calculate the regular offense converting and scoring a td because you thought that to be highly uinlikely?? Get the F outta here I don't even know what to say to that. While that trick play fake non fake or whatever it was, was unfolding are you telling me you're not saying or rather yelling anything like.. WTF is this shit!!?? Tomlin WTF!?? is this shit. or No fn way hes snapping the ball here..i was shocked he snapped the ball to be honest once I figured the jig was up. The image that immediately came to mind was watching buddy ryan punch kevin gilbride right in the face after gilbride called another of his wacked out playcalls during an oilers game. Someone, maybe Butler needed to punch out Tomlin.

[jeemie]

Here, Tomlin ran a true fake fg on 4th and less than 1 from inside the opponents 3 yd line while The Franchise stood and watched from the sideline.

Just run the offense!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0ywwwpklmc[/youtube]

In many ways, this one was worse only because on 4th down, Tomlin hesitated before deciding whether to bring in the FG unit, then called timeout.

Thus tipping the Giants off to the fact that something might be up.

Seems like we have trouble truly faking other teams out on trick plays!

[lifelongsteel]

So Liflelong... 20% for that abomination of a trickplay. And im on record as saying AV not open and that would have been a miracle pass for LJ to make. ok fine 20% in your view. You didn't bother to calculate the regular offense converting and scoring a td because you thought that to be highly uinlikely?? Get the F outta here I don't even know what to say to that. While that trick play fake non fake or whatever it was, was unfolding are you telling me you're not saying or rather yelling anything like.. WTF is this shit!!?? Tomlin WTF!?? is this shit. or No fn way hes snapping the ball here..i was shocked he snapped the ball to be honest once I figured the jig was up. The image that immediately came to mind was watching buddy ryan punch kevin gilbride right in the face after gilbride called another of his wacked out playcalls during an oilers game. Someone, maybe Butler needed to punch out Tomlin.

Different people can come to different conclusions. in my view the play was designed for Villanueva and it was designed to score a TD. It looked like that all the way to me and I'm not alone on that view. I also believe he was open and the play failed due to the throw. An NFL QB should make that throw almost every time. A 20% chance of a TD there is perfectly reasonable. Yeah, i should have added a TD % to the 4th down play for the offense, so fucking sue me. I've now spent more time defending my estimates than i ever did trying to put them together in the first place. No burden of proof necessary to hold an opinion. And certainly none has been put forth by you or others that are in #fakenotfakefieldgoalrage

Ok. So what if I made some changes and going for it yields 2.6 points and the fake yields 2.0? Doesn't really change my view. The call was not anywhere near as big a deal as it's being made out to be.

[jeemie]

Again...unless you think Landry Jones is a master eye-faker, he was staring down Heath Miller at the start of that play, and only slowly came off to AV.

He wanted to go to Heath.

[Legacy User]

Fair enough Lifelong, all good.

[lifelongsteel]

Fair enough Lifelong, all good.

All good Greek.

Well, one good thing came out of all of this. we got to see just how fast AV is. some impressive giddyup

[JackLambert58]

Here, Tomlin ran a true fake fg on 4th and less than 1 from inside the opponents 3 yd line while The Franchise stood and watched from the sideline.

Just run the offense!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0ywwwpklmc[/youtube]

In many ways, this one was worse only because on 4th down, Tomlin hesitated before deciding whether to bring in the FG unit, then called timeout.

Thus tipping the Giants off to the fact that something might be up.

Seems like we have trouble truly faking other teams out on trick plays!

Is it me or does Ben looked pissed off when talking with Charlie? I just remember sitting at Roggie's with Swiss that night and saying "just what the fuck was that?" Can't remember if this was before or after the old hags gave us some of their pizza.

[swissvale72]

Here, Tomlin ran a true fake fg on 4th and less than 1 from inside the opponents 3 yd line while The Franchise stood and watched from the sideline.

Just run the offense!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0ywwwpklmc[/youtube]

In many ways, this one was worse only because on 4th down, Tomlin hesitated before deciding whether to bring in the FG unit, then called timeout.

Thus tipping the Giants off to the fact that something might be up.

Seems like we have trouble truly faking other teams out on trick plays!

Is it me or does Ben looked pissed off when talking with Charlie? I just remember sitting at Roggie's with Swiss that night and saying "just what the fuck was that?" Can't remember if this was before or after the old hags gave us some of their pizza.

I think it was beforehand, '58.....otherwise we'd have choked on the old hags pizza. Another Tomlin Bonehead Moment....fortunately, he didn't fuck up enough to cost us the game.

[Old School Steeler]

Life, someone with a long memory and tape access could compile Tomlin's history of stupid coaching moves and that would only represent the ones in public purview. These decisions more than offset whatever positives he brings. These game decisions in this business ARE the measure of a HC.

[jeemie]

Sorry it wasn't a timeout in that Giants game. Tomlin had asked for a measurement.

It did look like Ben just wanted to go for it in that game, Jack.

And this is my deal with calls like this. I do not know why Mike Tomlin prefers to trust lesser players so often.

Just let your key players play. Stop trying to be so cute and I guess show how creative you are. You'd look a lot smarter if you'd just let the offense play, especially when they're clicking.

[bradshaw2ben]

These decisions more than offset whatever positives he brings.

a WHOPPER

smh

[Legacy User]

I am not dismissing Tomlin's use of a weegie board for game management. But 39 points to Seattle's aerial attack? Man, that is UGLY. I think Tomlin's game management in this instance is being given undue weight in comparison to the state of the pass D.

Because as Louis Lipps pointed out, the pass defense ain't getting fixed anytime soon, but Tomlin could stop being a dumbfuck RIGHT NOW if he just put forth the effort.

His issues are correctable and completely under his control.

The other issues will take time to rectify.

If you two don't think it will take a lot of practice and time for Tomlin to alter his thinking, then you're both naive. There is nothing at all about Tomlin's game management that is immediately correctable. Habit in thinking is no more magically and immediately alterable than habit in character. People don't magically alter their beliefs.

[jeemie]

If you two don't think it will take a lot of practice and time for Tomlin to alter his thinking, then you're both naive. There is nothing at all about Tomlin's game management that is immediately correctable. Habit in thinking is no more magically and immediately alterable than habit in character. People don't magically alter their beliefs.

OK- touche. You are correct.

However, the first step would be in admitting he has issues with these types of decisions...hell maybe even getting someone as a quality control person against which he can bounce off his assumptions.

It's not as if he can be completely unaware that these decisions he makes are controversial.

[Havoc]

I am digging the overall direction of the offense the past 3 games in spite of room for improvement.

We have attacked hard for the most part. The # of possessions are up by a significant margin. If nothing else, it's so much more fun to watch with this personnel group than the low possession pulling of teeth we have often employed under Tomlin.

The number of possessions in the nfl are already few before the game even starts, our coaches have no business shortening games with this personnel group.

I am hoping we are the highest scoring offense in the league in the playoffs and we will have to be if we are going to make a serious run.

[bradshaw2ben]

however, our time of possession is still high, thanks to our D buckling quickly

[Legacy User]

Well, you did something wrong on your math. Maybe we need a separate forum for math debates. Could be a lot of fun

No, what is really funny is watching you pull numbers out of the air to try and justify one of the dumbest plays in Tomlins history. As has been said before, he could have caught the ball. He wasn't scoring a TD. The defender was close enough to intercept it, he most certainly would have been close enough to make a tackle on an OT if he was adjusting to the ball. Which he was. Tomlin doesn't even stick to his own logic in these games. He is all over the place. He is a moron simply shaking his magic 8 ball to make decisions. If it were not for the fact that we are extremely talent laden, we would easily be the worst team in football right now.

[bradshaw2ben]

Well, you did something wrong on your math. Maybe we need a separate forum for math debates. Could be a lot of fun

No, what is really funny is watching you pull numbers out of the air to try and justify one of the dumbest plays in Tomlins history. As has been said before, he could have caught the ball. He wasn't scoring a TD. The defender was close enough to intercept it, he most certainly would have been close enough to make a tackle on an OT if he was adjusting to the ball. Which he was. Tomlin doesn't even stick to his own logic in these games. He is all over the place. He is a moron simply shaking his magic 8 ball to make decisions. If it were not for the fact that we are extremely talent laden, we would easily be the worst team in football right now.

our talent level on defense and special teams is horrendous

[Legacy User]

If you two don't think it will take a lot of practice and time for Tomlin to alter his thinking, then you're both naive. There is nothing at all about Tomlin's game management that is immediately correctable. Habit in thinking is no more magically and immediately alterable than habit in character. People don't magically alter their beliefs.

OK- touche. You are correct.

However, the first step would be in admitting he has issues with these types of decisions...hell maybe even getting someone as a quality control person against which he can bounce off his assumptions.

It's not as if he can be completely unaware that these decisions he makes are controversial.

The problem is that Tomlin is the boss. If Rooney isn't going to step in, then which underling is going to stick his neck out in the coaches' meetings and express dismay? I wonder how much criticism Tomlin himself invites or demands of his decisions in those meetings.

[Legacy User]

Well, you did something wrong on your math. Maybe we need a separate forum for math debates. Could be a lot of fun

No, what is really funny is watching you pull numbers out of the air to try and justify one of the dumbest plays in Tomlins history. As has been said before, he could have caught the ball. He wasn't scoring a TD. The defender was close enough to intercept it, he most certainly would have been close enough to make a tackle on an OT if he was adjusting to the ball. Which he was. Tomlin doesn't even stick to his own logic in these games. He is all over the place. He is a moron simply shaking his magic 8 ball to make decisions. If it were not for the fact that we are extremely talent laden, we would easily be the worst team in football right now.

our talent level on defense and special teams is horrendous

I'll keep shouting this as long as you do.

We have no pass rush and burning pile of garbage in the secondary outside of Gay and Mitchell. And neither is what you would call a premier player.

[Legacy User]

Lifelong, all due respect.

I asked you this previously, but there was no answer. WHERE do you come up with these percentages. Honestly, it seems like you're making shit up, these percentages, to fit your narrative.

That non-fake fake FG was one of the worst coaching decisions that I've ever seen. I posted earlier, and I believe this, that it was worse than the FG Bill FG in the '04 AFCCG. That one seemed worse because of the higher stakes. Actually, they were BOTH dumb as fuck. If this one's not worse, it's in the same ballpark.....and that's not good company to be keeping.

Bogus arguments about percentages, AV being wide open, blah, blah, blah......it was fuckin' stupid...no two ways about it. It was idiotic on its face....and has only gotten worse the more we learn about it.

Sorry Swiss, I missed your question the first time around.

Here was my thinking:
- FG 85% chance of make from 45 yards. I got this from looking at the stats of all current kickers. This is probably on the high side
- Offense convert 50%. We currently convert on 40% of our 4th down tries. I gave extra credit here because we were moving the ball well
- TD if we convert 40%. We are 55% in the RZ for the year but trending down in the last few games. Also we probably would have converted short of the RZ.
- FG if we convert 60%. Just used 100%. it is obviously lower, but who knows how long the FG try would be
- For the fake, as you might suspect, I didn't really have much info to go on. I looked at a couple of unreliable, small sample size sources. Since I've never seen this type of play before it was hard to judge. 20% seemed right or even low to me based on what I saw - slightly better pass or slightly slower reaction from Lane and in my mind it's a TD.

As Jeemie pointed out earlier, I didn't not calculate a scenario where the regular offense converts and scores. I didn't include this as I thought it was highly unlikely. But it is a fair point.

I broke out the 3 options with probabilities to show how I think about the play and why I think it wasn't, without benefit of hindsight, as bad a decision as many are making it out to be. If you have different estimates plug em in and see what you get. Free country and all that.

FWIW i have no dog in this fight. I have no predetermined narrative i'm trying to support. I am not a Tomlin lover or Tomlin hater. In fact I've often been accused of being too hard on Tomlin re: his game management decisions. In this case I saw a mob with pitchforks and thought I would play devils advocate - which is what i said at the outset.

It's been loads of fun ever since

So basically you knew it was a stupid call, but thought you would have fun getting people riled up about it. That's called being a troll. I mean it's not like we just started calling Tomlin an idiot yesterday. This dumb play goes in the pile with a few dozen others. If it seems we are being overly hard on him based on this one play, while there are other factors at play for this loss, like the poor defense, which has also been stated, it's because Tomlin has a history of these calls. This play was obviously not the single play that lost the game, but it was still an moronic play.

If you want to go for it, then go for it. Don't run a fake which is really not a fake. I mean my wife who knows very little about football was asking "what kind of play is that" ? Although it could have to do with the fact that I was yelling, " what the fuck are they trying to do?" The point is, it wasn't fooling anyone. It wasn't a fake, which has been pointed out, it was an attempt to get a first down with a FG unit/formation. Once you erase the fact that it's no longer a fake , all of your percentages change. Now you are essentially running a 4th down play for a 1st down with your least effective players on the field and from the least effective formation. True fakes fool everyone right up until the ball is hiked.