James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.

[jeemie]

You guys are giving Tomlin too much credit

He didn't use any stats or any expert analysis whatsoever to make that fucked up decision

He kept his HOME BOY and cut the guy who wasn't from Newport News -- that's all there was to it

[Kodiak]

I don't care what anyone says....but 4 sacks on like 80 snaps this year is a pretty ridiculous number. And coaches couldn't figure out how to exploit that more situationally?

[stinger8]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYlOqW1rpf8

[jeemie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYlOqW1rpf8

Will Cain?

WILL CAIN?!?!?!?

Will Cain is a twelve-year-old little girl.

[BethlehemSteel]

At least for this one game the Steelers shuffled outside linebacker in and out to keep guys fresh and see what the depth looks like. Regular starters T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree each played 47 snaps while the rest of the reps were split between L.J. Fort (20 snaps), Anthony Chickillo (18 snaps) and Arthur Moats (18 snaps) http://steelerswire.usatoday.com/2018/0 ... -browns/3/

Harrison is gone obviously because there were no snaps to go around. As is shown in the last games snap count. Another snap count not inconsideration is Matakevich and Spence snap count. With the injury to Shazier the ILB corps is all by committee. No way is there enough snaps for everyone. Of all those with increased snap count through a committee process all play ST's. No way was Deebo playing ST's at this point in his career. Harrison just didn't have a role on this team anymore.

That is the utmost truth in a nutshell. The scheme and injuries rendered him obsolete.

[BethlehemSteel]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYlOqW1rpf8

Espn propaganda? Please child keep that shit outta here

[JPPT1974]

Screw ESPN. And screw Mr Harrison!

[BethlehemSteel]

Screw ESPN. And screw Mr Harrison!

So you’re one of the pats fans that didn’t want JH or vote ceremoniously on a poll that JH was all world yesterday?

Wednesday at 1:32 AM
JPPT1974
On the Game Day Roster

What is Steelers loss and now it is that of Patriots gain.
Winner Winner x 1 Useful Useful x 1
Wednesday at 1:33 AM

[Legacy User]

You guys are giving Tomlin too much credit

He didn't use any stats or any expert analysis whatsoever to make that fucked up decision

He kept his HOME BOY and cut the guy who wasn't from Newport News -- that's all there was to it

Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better.

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.

[stinger8]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYlOqW1rpf8

Espn propaganda? Please child keep that shit outta here

Hey Beth you know this more than anyone on this site. This is the FIRST and last time I will ever respond to you because you offer so little value to this site. Your comments are inane, they add almost no value to whatever debate is happening, and you frankly embarrass yourself on a daily basis.

In this scene replace Mr Madison with Bethlehem Steel

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA

Goodbye Mr Bethlehem Steel

[randomsteelerfan]

1. We have been over this ad nauseum: there is a large batch of data that suggests his particular coaching staff makes sub optimal personal deployment choices: both strategically and tactically.

Great. You’ve identified a universal coaching deficiency. Doesn’t change my point.

2. There is a large body of social science research documenting how and why experts get things wrong. Moreover, there is a large body of data explaining how to make predictions without relying on experts. A useful metric is: what was occurring is likely to continue to occur. Harrison has been better than Moats forever. Thus, it is likely that he will continue to be better than Moats until there is significant evidence of the contrary.

Almost speechless. This logic tells me we can go cherrypick from the 2005-2008 rosters and upgrade our current one because, well, if they were better then, they’ll be better now. Genius.

3. There is some pretty good arguments explaining why access to more information leads to worse decisions; sometimes experts think they know more than they do.

Another lightning bolt. Watching players practice/play everyday<<<<<<a fan’s arbitrary memory of players ability. Check.

4. All I am doing is using basic prediction theory + updating for new info. All of that leads me to believe Moats is inferior to Harrison.

A fan’s opinion. Check.

5. What about the coach’s background leads you to trust his predictions? I’d say his predictions kind of suck.

The coach has assembled arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. Have you?

6. Blindly trusting coaches because knowledge differences is anti intellectual because it assumes the knowledge in this case is useful. I’d argue based on Tomlin’s history and basic prediction theory, that Tomlin is likely wrong re Harrison. That’s actually thinking. Reflexively sucking up to Tje
Coaches is a logic fallacy built on lazy intellectual underpinnings. Such argument doesn’t engage with the real question — do the coaches typically make good choices when facing borderline player decisions?

Never once advocated blind trust. Again, stop with the assumptions. Hate to beat a dead horse. Is he responsible for this loaded roster, or not?

7. The trust the coach argument is anti social because it shuts down the social discussion. Bit of a tautology but hope you see the point.

Not really. Please explain again how it shut down the social discussion in this case?

I know, weird formatting. But it was easiest on a phone.

[Legacy User]

Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better.

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.

You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.

[Legacy User]

Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better.

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.

You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.

No not every measure. Moats has logged 96 ST snaps this year, Harrison 0. So you get rid of a guy that is doing what he can for the team and can fill in at ILB in an emergency over a guy that would be a liability for this defense 2 yards off the LoS? Hometown bias aside how do you keep a guy that isnt even competing to get on the field or trying to help his teammates like a professional would do? James quit on this team and there is no other way to put it. Like it or not the OLB now has many more responsibilities in passing defense than even a year ago. Heyward just had more sacks in a season than most DE who played in Pittsburgh have had in their careers.

No one with eyes or a seeing eye play by play dog wants Harrison matched up against anyone with two functioning legs with his back to the LoS. Any DC worth his salt would lick his chops while calling screens and bunches to his side

[jeemie]

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

Please document this history.

[Legacy User]

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

Please document this history.

Hes going to go with the Mike Vick and Tomlin saying that it was easy tp bring him in because Vick is from his neck of the woods and he always looks out for the Virgina guys. But then you can reply that we were 3-1 with Vick. Then it will dissolve into something like a slap fight between two barechested Copenhagen chewing tractor pull enthusiasts.


Said for comedy, not actuality, Jeemie.

[Legacy User]

Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better.

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.

You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.

So you're immune to the argument that Harrison can't play special teams, and you're immune to the argument that the Steelers have changed their defensive system such that OLB now requires a skill set that Harrison no longer possesses. There are rational points for both sides. For you to say the homeboy connection is the only reason for Tomlin to let Harrison go seems...unwarrented.

[stinger8]

Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better.

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.

You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.

No not every measure. Moats has logged 96 ST snaps this year, Harrison 0. So you get rid of a guy that is doing what he can for the team and can fill in at ILB in an emergency over a guy that would be a liability for this defense 2 yards off the LoS? Hometown bias aside how do you keep a guy that isnt even competing to get on the field or trying to help his teammates like a professional would do? James quit on this team and there is no other way to put it. Like it or not the OLB now has many more responsibilities in passing defense than even a year ago. Heyward just had more sacks in a season than most DE who played in Pittsburgh have had in their careers.

No one with eyes or a seeing eye play by play dog wants Harrison matched up against anyone with two functioning legs with his back to the LoS. Any DC worth his salt would lick his chops while calling screens and bunches to his side

James quit on his team because they lied to him and he asked to be released and they refused. He asked for reps and they refused. So he forced their hand.
I have eyes and just saw him go out and put up great stats last game. Are you obtuse??

[Legacy User]

Garbage sacks in garage time and against garbage OL... If you want to say he contributes for Pat's fine but they have no choice as some said they have nothing at the position and the Steelers do.

[Legacy User]

James quit on his team because they lied to him and he asked to be released and they refused. He asked for reps and they refused. So he forced their hand.
I have eyes and just saw him go out and put up great stats last game. Are you obtuse??

That's a lot of he said bull shit to justify actions. So a guy can go "rogue" when things don't go his way? How about competing for a spot? How about challenging the young guys to keep improving and know that someone did that for you when you were learning? This team was going to trot out those tired zone schemes and transition into a man team. Getting Haden sped up those plans and changed the responsibilities of the OLB, DL and ILBs- and James was the dinosaur in the room. We were not going to change the defense back just for him he needed to find a way to get on the field- and he quit.

What I saw on Sunday was a guy with something to prove play against a team that was blown out and broken. It was like watching a c2 vet play in the closing minutes of the 4th preseason game against guys who were trying to get on the schedule at the Waffle House. Yes, he can be effective for the Patriots because can put him at the 4-3 DE and he can rush the passer and set the edge and not get really exposed by having to play coverage. But he's only one finger and the Pats dike has lots of holes.

[zeke5123]

1. We have been over this ad nauseum: there is a large batch of data that suggests his particular coaching staff makes sub optimal personal deployment choices: both strategically and tactically.

Great. You’ve identified a universal coaching deficiency. Doesn’t change my point.

2. There is a large body of social science research documenting how and why experts get things wrong. Moreover, there is a large body of data explaining how to make predictions without relying on experts. A useful metric is: what was occurring is likely to continue to occur. Harrison has been better than Moats forever. Thus, it is likely that he will continue to be better than Moats until there is significant evidence of the contrary.

Almost speechless. This logic tells me we can go cherrypick from the 2005-2008 rosters and upgrade our current one because, well, if they were better then, they’ll be better now. Genius.

Yeah -- you simply don't understand my point as evidenced by your response. Let me use an example -- who is more likely to be successful next year: a rookie or a ten year vet? My metric would say the ten year vet; the reasoning being that if he has survived ten years in the NFL, then he must be at least decent. Of course, this doesn't mean you always take the vet. If the vet has sucked the last two years the probability that the vet is better than the rookie decreases fairly rapidly. This of course is the Lindy Effect. Read up on it. Put another way, it stats with the strong prior that what was will continue to be in proportion to the amount of time something was. The prediction is updated based on new info. If something appears sickly, then it is much less likely to survive.

Note that in your mistaking of my hypothesis, many of those the 2005-08 players have failed in the interim. Thus, they are not likely to be better than say a rookie. But the (1?) guy from that team that has continued to play well happens to the best the best player on this team. Might have heard of him. His name is Big Ben. Metric seems to work...


3. There is some pretty good arguments explaining why access to more information leads to worse decisions; sometimes experts think they know more than they do.

Another lightning bolt. Watching players practice/play everyday<<<<<<a fan’s arbitrary memory of players ability. Check.

More information does not necessarily mean more forecasting ability; but it can mean more belief in your ability to forecast. The coaches clearly felt James Harrison wasn't up to snuff. His tape last year suggested otherwise. His limited action this year suggested he hadn't fallen off a cliff. Thus, the probability that he sucks is well limited.

Also, according to Harrison he didn't get many practice reps. So, how were they evaluating him?

4. All I am doing is using basic prediction theory + updating for new info. All of that leads me to believe Moats is inferior to Harrison.

A fan’s opinion. Check.

Glad for you to post such a meaningful response. Go mop some jizz. I guess no one should have any opinion regarding the Steelers besides what the coaches' opinion, because it is just a fan's opinion.

5. What about the coach’s background leads you to trust his predictions? I’d say his predictions kind of suck.

The coach has assembled arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. Have you?

I'd say Kevin Colbert has assembled one of the most talented rosters in the NFL by making some great picks. If anything, the picks Tomlin has had more of a hand in (i.e., the first round picks) have largely disappointed. Will give Tomlin credit for Bell. From what I understand he had a pretty big hand in that. But there have been some great picks in the not first day of the draft that really form the bedrock of this team. I'd say that is more KC than MT.

6. Blindly trusting coaches because knowledge differences is anti intellectual because it assumes the knowledge in this case is useful. I’d argue based on Tomlin’s history and basic prediction theory, that Tomlin is likely wrong re Harrison. That’s actually thinking. Reflexively sucking up to Tje
Coaches is a logic fallacy built on lazy intellectual underpinnings. Such argument doesn’t engage with the real question — do the coaches typically make good choices when facing borderline player decisions?

Never once advocated blind trust. Again, stop with the assumptions. Hate to beat a dead horse. Is he responsible for this loaded roster, or not?

See above. Also, there is precedence for Tomlin making suboptimal decisions with certain players. He does seem to have gotten somewhat better, but do I need to go back to the DHB over MB disaster in the Pats game? Please defend that decision.

7. The trust the coach argument is anti social because it shuts down the social discussion. Bit of a tautology but hope you see the point.

Not really. Please explain again how it shut down the social discussion in this case?

Because if the argument is coaches are always right, then what is the discussion?

Person A: It was right to cut Harrison because Tomlin is a genius.

Person B: Tomlin is a genius, therefore I agree with you.

Not much of a discussion.

I know, weird formatting. But it was easiest on a phone.

[zeke5123]

Basic forecasting methods? You are trying to reduce every multivariable football decisions into Bayesian statistics? I'm assuming you've looked at the structure of Bayes theorem, please explain how you would reduce this particular situation to P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B). I'm really interested in your definition of P(A) and P(B) since priors are generally really difficult to determine without thousands of samples (usually why most empirical studies simulate these parameters to determine the best fit of their data). .

Football is not economics (I'm guessing that's what you work in - most scientists don't use the word forecast but I apologize if I'm off) because the variables can't be reduced the way you are describing. Maybe in terms of FG decision making but even that's not going to be a very flexible model.

The same argument above holds true for just about every modelling avenue I'm aware of - so even if this isn't about Bayes Theorem I struggle to see how we could possibly measure MT with the metric you propose.

You are taking it to literal. I believe I said Bayesian reasoning. The basic idea, which you are obviously familiar with, is that there are two things that can be true -- in the case, the possibilities are (1) James Harrison is currently better than Moats or (2) Moats is better than Harrison.

Our prior is that players that are border line HOFers are better than guys who have always been scrubs. Thus, probabilistically we can say state 1 is more likely than state 2.

The next issue is there any recent evidence that suggests the prior is wrong in this case. The relevant data is that very recently Harrison performed at a starter level, and has seemingly been better than Moats in limited snaps this season (both guys have only played somewhat limited snaps, but Harrison is the only one to make a splash play). The final piece of evidence is the decision by the coaches. I just don't weigh this evidence very highly. Coaches may believe the difference between Harrison and Moats is rather marginal, and the coaches want to develop Moats for next year. Or, maybe the coaches believe Moats is the better player. Or maybe politics played into it -- wouldn't be the first time. Or, maybe the coaches got it wrong. Regardless, don't think that decision will make me change my belief that state 1 is more likely than state 2, though it does decrease the gap.

In the same way, the fact that BB is interested in Harrison also influences the probability. Now, BB didn't have the choice of Moats or Harrison; thus, the inference from this is limited. But count this as some evidence towards state 1.

Thus, applied basic Bayesian reasoning (not the Bayes theorem) to football decision. Not that hard.

And you got me -- economics undergrad. Went to law school though and became a tax lawyer. New tax law is very interesting.

[StillerDownSouth]

This is becoming one of the dumbest threads in SteelerFury history, all over a guy who will probably be one of the most irrelevant players in the post season. Hard to believe over 100 pages of this BS.

[Legacy User]

He wont be irrelevant at all, he'll have a key sack or 2. Book it!

[StillerDownSouth]

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many 100 page threads this site has had other than game threads. I've been here since the old site and can't recall many. Swiss or Jeems maybe can remember, but I am thinking this could be a record.

[Legacy User]

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

Please document this history.

the dog beater, for one

[Legacy User]

Basic forecasting methods? You are trying to reduce every multivariable football decisions into Bayesian statistics? I'm assuming you've looked at the structure of Bayes theorem, please explain how you would reduce this particular situation to P(A|B) = P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B). I'm really interested in your definition of P(A) and P(B) since priors are generally really difficult to determine without thousands of samples (usually why most empirical studies simulate these parameters to determine the best fit of their data). .

Football is not economics (I'm guessing that's what you work in - most scientists don't use the word forecast but I apologize if I'm off) because the variables can't be reduced the way you are describing. Maybe in terms of FG decision making but even that's not going to be a very flexible model.

The same argument above holds true for just about every modelling avenue I'm aware of - so even if this isn't about Bayes Theorem I struggle to see how we could possibly measure MT with the metric you propose.

You are taking it to literal. I believe I said Bayesian reasoning. The basic idea, which you are obviously familiar with, is that there are two things that can be true -- in the case, the possibilities are (1) James Harrison is currently better than Moats or (2) Moats is better than Harrison.

Our prior is that players that are border line HOFers are better than guys who have always been scrubs. Thus, probabilistically we can say state 1 is more likely than state 2.

The next issue is there any recent evidence that suggests the prior is wrong in this case. The relevant data is that very recently Harrison performed at a starter level, and has seemingly been better than Moats in limited snaps this season (both guys have only played somewhat limited snaps, but Harrison is the only one to make a splash play). The final piece of evidence is the decision by the coaches. I just don't weigh this evidence very highly. Coaches may believe the difference between Harrison and Moats is rather marginal, and the coaches want to develop Moats for next year. Or, maybe the coaches believe Moats is the better player. Or maybe politics played into it -- wouldn't be the first time. Or, maybe the coaches got it wrong. Regardless, don't think that decision will make me change my belief that state 1 is more likely than state 2, though it does decrease the gap.

In the same way, the fact that BB is interested in Harrison also influences the probability. Now, BB didn't have the choice of Moats or Harrison; thus, the inference from this is limited. But count this as some evidence towards state 1.

Thus, applied basic Bayesian reasoning (not the Bayes theorem) to football decision. Not that hard.

And you got me -- economics undergrad. Went to law school though and became a tax lawyer. New tax law is very interesting.

But Zeke, you're leaving out a very key point

Moats played 96 FUCKING SNAPS on special teams this year!!

How the fuck could we EVER replace that type of unbelievable football production??

Harrison might be a HOF outside LBer, but WHAT ABOUT SPECIAL TEAMS!!!

Without Moats, we'd probably give up a TD on every kickoff, because then we'd be FORCED TO PLAY WITH ONLY 10 GUYS -- because surely, there is NO ONE ELSE on the roster who can take over Moats' fucking role on special teams!

Without Moats, our season WOULD BE FUCKING DOOMED!!!

[jeemie]

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

Please document this history.

the dog beater, for one

Yep- we only picked up Vick because he was a homeboy.

RIIIGHT.

Name a QB that was available at the time that would have been a better choice than Vick, and why you think that alternative would have been better.

[Obviously]

Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many 100 page threads this site has had other than game threads. I've been here since the old site and can't recall many. Swiss or Jeems maybe can remember, but I am thinking this could be a record.

They merged a bunch of threads into this one.

[bradshaw2ben]

Milledgeville is one that was equally long.

[Legacy User]

I suppose it has been mentioned that the team broke the franchise sack record this season.

I can see being the argument that Harrison may have strengthened the Pats.

But those complaining about JH riding pine...team broke its sack record without JH doing much.