Wk 17 Steelers/2019 recap: All's Well That Ends

[bradshaw2ben]

I’d like to thank the Batlimore Ravens, the Tennessee Titans, The Jacksonville Jaguars, and The New York Jets for the mercy killing they helped engineer over the past week.

https://steelerfury.com/week-17-steeler ... that-ends/

[tbsteel]

Well, that was excellent. Great perspective and agree with your thoughts going forward. Fichtner will get a pass but his lack of creativity in the running game, red zone, and third down was alarmingly awful this season. They did no favors to their RBs, no favors to their OL, and no favors for their limited QBs.

Excited by the growth Johnson showed. Still love JJSS and think he’ll have a big bounce back next season. The guy was getting open, just didn’t have anyone to get him the ball and then he got taken out by the Browns. TE and RB are biggest needs. And people here will hate it, but we can’t go into next season with Mason and Duck waiting in the wings. If they’re set on rolling with Ben and making another SB push, okay I’m not sure it’s the best long-term strategy, but we’ve got to get a legitimate backup on this team. If we had even a league average QB this year we’d be playing next weekend.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Good read

I think this is the year to grab WRs in the draft

More than anything the Steelers need some legit play making talent other than just DJ

[Orangesteel]

Good article. Really enjoyed these this season.

Do we really wait until we are well into the 2020 campaign to see if Fitchner has the balls to start designing a legit NFL offense? I’m not sure I want to wait for that.

Looking at the teams in the playoffs right now, the creativity and offensive design is impressive. We don’t fit in; not in the least. I realize we might not have the horses, but I’m not willing to let half the year go by next season to see if Fitchner truly understands what he is doing out there.

Fitchner’s offense is not difficult to play against; as you said. Antonio Brown? Yeah, he was tough to defend. Ben when he is vintage Ben making plays downfield? Very tough to defend.

Fitchner’s offense now, which is “go out for a pass and try to make a play one-on-one”? That is actually quite easy to defend, especially with the skill and speed of modern NFL defenses. That’s why you need to create confusion, formations, motion, misdirection, because you need to outsmart the 11 guys on the other side of the line of scrimmage to really have a dangerous offense in this league. That is especially the case if you don’t have the best WR and best RB on your roster any longer.

I’m sick of being stuck in the Stone Age with this coaching staff. Without a serious infusion of talent and jettisoning of the boneheads on this roster, I’m not that optimistic even with Ben back.

Are there any FA receivers worth pursuing? I agree with all of your cuts.

[Jobu]

Good stuff B2B. I don’t necessarily agree with some of your “fixes” especially with the O-line, but the article makes sense.
Alas, we know exactly how the off season will go. They’ll sail that oil tanker in to port, refuel, then set back out on the same voyage with pretty much the same cargo on board.
The offense will utilize the same simplistic scheme, with the same under contract bodies manning the same positions.
The head coach, and more importantly the owner, are set in their ways, so better hope that 7s rebuilt arm rejuvenates the rest of his 38 year old body, and some of that old magic returns, because very little will change.
There are a lot of question marks on this squad and hoping that they all are answered positively is wishful thinking. But hey, I guess that’s what the off season is for...right?

Here’s a question that I keep asking, that no one seems to be able to answer...
Why the clamoring for a TE with the only premium pick in the draft when the TE position isn’t an integral part of the offense?

[bradshaw2ben]

Why the clamoring for a TE with the only premium pick in the draft when the TE position isn’t an integral part of the offense?

Because it's not only integral, it's ESSENTIAL... for the run game.

The TE blocking drop off from two years ago to last year to this year is... ASTOUNDING. I think TEs were a huge part of that––PLUS the failure of TEs blocking led to more OT Tackle-eligible, which made things even more clogged up and predictable.

and here are the results:

2017: +3.0% DVOA compared to the league
2018: -2.4% DVOA compared to the league
2019: -22.5% DVOA compared to the league

[Orangesteel]

Yowza.

[Thrillsseeker]

Why the clamoring for a TE with the only premium pick in the draft when the TE position isn’t an integral part of the offense?

Because it's not only integral, it's ESSENTIAL... for the run game.

The TE blocking drop off from two years ago to last year to this year is... ASTOUNDING. I think TEs were a huge part of that––PLUS the failure of TEs blocking led to more OT Tackle-eligible, which made things even more clogged up and predictable.

and here are the results:

2017: +3.0% DVOA compared to the league
2018: -2.4% DVOA compared to the league
2019: -22.5% DVOA compared to the league

Scary stats for sure but whats that number with Ben playing?

Easier to stack the box against a shit offense with shit QB play. I would like better TE play but so much goes right this year had Ben not gone down.

[Jobu]

Why the clamoring for a TE with the only premium pick in the draft when the TE position isn’t an integral part of the offense?

Because it's not only integral, it's ESSENTIAL... for the run game.

The TE blocking drop off from two years ago to last year to this year is... ASTOUNDING. I think TEs were a huge part of that––PLUS the failure of TEs blocking led to more OT Tackle-eligible, which made things even more clogged up and predictable.

and here are the results:

2017: +3.0% DVOA compared to the league
2018: -2.4% DVOA compared to the league
2019: -22.5% DVOA compared to the league

So, a blocking TE in the second round?
IMO, the problem in the run game isn’t just poor TE blocking, its poor blocking overall. That’s in large part due to a lack of “wrinkles” and predictability, as you mentioned. Add in hard nosed, but plodding RBs, and you get what you get. They very well could add a TE...but in the second round would be a total waste of a pick.
Give me a playmaking TE in the second, and assurance that he’ll be used effectively...then sign me up.

[bradshaw2ben]

Why the clamoring for a TE with the only premium pick in the draft when the TE position isn’t an integral part of the offense?

Because it's not only integral, it's ESSENTIAL... for the run game.

The TE blocking drop off from two years ago to last year to this year is... ASTOUNDING. I think TEs were a huge part of that––PLUS the failure of TEs blocking led to more OT Tackle-eligible, which made things even more clogged up and predictable.

and here are the results:

2017: +3.0% DVOA compared to the league
2018: -2.4% DVOA compared to the league
2019: -22.5% DVOA compared to the league

Scary stats for sure but whats that number with Ben playing?

Easier to stack the box against a shit offense with shit QB play. I would like better TE play but so much goes right this year had Ben not gone down.

Sure. But the drop off already started last year, I thought. Maybe it doesn't go down to Miami Dolphins rush level but... definitely getting worse

[Obviously]

Appreciate the mention in your article. Okay, I agree with you. Mike Tomlin is full of shit and I don't believe a fuckin' word he says. So they were prepared for the Patriots but just had their asses handed to them because of a shitty gameplan and absolute shit at certain positions. Whose fault is that? Couldn't be Tomlin's right? I love how you just poo poo yet another loss to the Patriots, and perhaps I should, too, knowing that he is Belichick's personal bitch. Too bad you can't see it, but those beatdowns at the hands of the Patriots whether it's the first game of the season or an AFCCG are absolutely inexcusable. Just like Cowher losing four of five AFCCGs in Pittsburgh (two to Belichick) is absolutely inexcusable, too.

Yes, I gave Tomlin credit for turning chicken shit into chicken salad for a time. Good on him for it, but once again with the Lucy act at the end of the season. I'm not going to be incensed about it. I'm just going to expect it.

[swissvale72]

Now B2B reinvents himself as Dr. Phil. What the fuck is this supposed to mean?

Got some advice once about relationships that stuck with me: nothing is more upsetting or less important than the stuff you know the other person is going to do, that you’re waiting for them to do, they do it/you pounce and it pisses you off beyond all reason. It’s infuriating. But it’s also more about you and your state of mind than it is about them. They’re just being who they are––it’s you that is assessing it based on your expectation/frustration.

Obviously beat me to it. Mike Tomlin is nothing if not Full of Shit, perhaps not "completely" but sure as fuck sufficiently. Let's not forget, this guy's #1 skill is an Exceedingly Well-Developed Line of Bullshit.

Lastly, not agreeing with the percentages you're citing once Ben went down, B2B. Finishing 8-8 was 10%? Making the playoffs was 1%. Don't think so, considering there were a couple of games that would have been Ws, post-elbow, if only JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner had held onto the fuckin' football.

[swissvale72]

Oh...I sort of agree with the opening paragraph, but this is my take:

The only solace I drew from yesterday, as unlike so many of you asshats, I was rooting like hell for the Steelers to make the playoffs, was that they would not be taking the field in Foxboro next Saturday night, where even I, as an eternal optimist (fuck you...on game day I am) had zero confidence that Steelers would avert an ass-kicking, as per usual, at the hands of the hated Belichickians.

[LakecrestSteeler]

The anticipation for next season will be other worldly brutal!

Do you remember how slow time crawled in first grade waiting for summer break! Next season will take forever...and each game we will be a nervous wreck worrying about Ben and protection!

I dread the wait, but absolutely can’t wait to see if they were able to remove the Kryptonite from his elbow!

[LakecrestSteeler]

Does Hines Ward replace Sherman? I could see him adding some spunk to the offense!

[COR-TEN]

Kudos. Spot on. Sensible and level headed response to a roller coaster season.

Thanks for the perspective and the change to the new SteelerFury. Can't emphasize that enough.

[bradshaw2ben]

Appreciate the mention in your article. Okay, I agree with you. Mike Tomlin is full of shit and I don't believe a fuckin' word he says. So they were prepared for the Patriots but just had their asses handed to them because of a shitty gameplan and absolute shit at certain positions. Whose fault is that? Couldn't be Tomlin's right? I love how you just poo poo yet another loss to the Patriots, and perhaps I should, too, knowing that he is Belichick's personal bitch. Too bad you can't see it, but those beatdowns at the hands of the Patriots whether it's the first game of the season or an AFCCG are absolutely inexcusable. Just like Cowher losing four of five AFCCGs in Pittsburgh (two to Belichick) is absolutely inexcusable, too.

Yes, I gave Tomlin credit for turning chicken shit into chicken salad for a time. Good on him for it, but once again with the Lucy act at the end of the season. I'm not going to be incensed about it. I'm just going to expect it.

I think when you are focused as an organization on:

1. stability (predictability)
2. execution (what we do, not the other team)
3. building to a crescendo (trading slow starts for hot in December)

You're an easy mark for a team you already don't match up well with, coaching aside. That's why it wasn't surprising. The Steelers play NE better later in the year, and have pretty much held their own against them in recent years later in the season (Jesse caught it, a win, Ben putting up a solid game without sny WRs of Lev Bell). This year, Ben wasn't right starting the season and I get the impression everybody knew it, including Ernie Adams.

NE has had everybody's number, man. It sucks. They're either outcoaching or outcheating or out-talenting us or some combination of all of that. It'll be the big knock on Tomlin/Ben's career, just as it was for Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning until they conquered them You're absolutely right that they own the Steelers more than the Rooneys. That still doesn't mean Mike Tomlin is a horrible coach or that this season shows that he should be fired. You might make a move just to shake up the staleness/complacency, but it's more likely Art 2 would step down and turn it over to his kid than it would be to see them part ways with Tomlin--unless he wants to go.

People bitching about the outcome of this season make me crazy. 14 games started by a guy who couldn't complete a pass that wasn't on the left sideline and another who stopped trying to throw to open receivers...with a fading OL a can't-stay-healthy RB crew and TE group that can't block anyone and never gets targeted as receivers. That was the 32nd ranked offense in DVOA, quite an accomplishment considering how bad Cincy, Miami, Carolina, and the Jets were for most of the season. There could have been incremental changes to eke out a couple more miracles but, honestly, it's a blessing the season is over without anyone else getting seriously injured or suffering career-lasting PTSD.

As it often is with backups/next man up: it works for a while, and then they hit the wall. The backups revert to the mean, the other guys on the team who raised their game to compensate can't sustain it forever. When those two lines on the graph merge, the season is over. They intersected sometime in the Buffalo game.

[bradshaw2ben]

Now B2B reinvents himself as Dr. Phil. What the fuck is this supposed to mean?

Got some advice once about relationships that stuck with me: nothing is more upsetting or less important than the stuff you know the other person is going to do, that you’re waiting for them to do, they do it/you pounce and it pisses you off beyond all reason. It’s infuriating. But it’s also more about you and your state of mind than it is about them. They’re just being who they are––it’s you that is assessing it based on your expectation/frustration.

Feel free to skip it if it's not for not for you, dude.

[nycsteel]

Agree that complacency is the biggest danger this offseason. "We do what we do" is a deadly cliche that they embrace, if you will.

No chance to catch the Ravens unless they make some radical moves for Ben's last couple years. The starting D got gashed yesterday when they knew the run plays were getting called. Imaging if Jackson was starting.

-- Cut Barron and move Edmunds to his role for pass downs? He's virtually the same size but can run with receivers and TEs better. His zero ball skills are less a liability in that role.
-- Can Sean Davis come back and be SS? Maybe he improves with Minkah by his side. If not sign one. (No chance the above happens though).
-- Cut McDonald, get TE in Round 3, or see who you can sign.
-- I'm fine with DJ, JJSS, and Washington. All talented and will be 10x better with Ben throwing. Keep Cain and draft another WR in 5-6.
-- Pay Dupree. With TJ, Bud, Minkah together for next 3-4 years this will be a special defense, as long as Heyward, Tuitt, Haden etc don't decline or get hurt.
-- Glad that Bos had a great bounceback year. But Jesus cut Berry already.
-- Pray that the OL was worn out/lacked any confidence in the taxi squad types that had to play most of the snaps.
-- I'm mixed on Tomlin. Deeply flawed as a game strategist; get a modern OC and Ben healthy and that keeps Tomlin out of "ease in" mode. I do think players genuinely play hard for him. Just not prepared or aware in key situations.
-- THankfully no need to be afraid of the "run to the podium" in Round 1 this year!

[bradshaw2ben]

Lastly, not agreeing with the percentages you're citing once Ben went down, B2B. Finishing 8-8 was 10%? Making the playoffs was 1%. Don't think so, considering there were a couple of games that would have been Ws, post-elbow, if only JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner had held onto the fuckin' football.

Without Ben and with two green as Kermit the Frog QBs behind him-- and with a defense that hadn't yet shown themselves to be more than average, I may have been generous with my percentages. I think it was pretty much a miracle that an offense built around one fo the worst running games in dacades and operated by a guy who can't throw accurately anywhere but the left sideline and a UDFA from Samford... that team won 8 of 14 games. In the NFL. In one season. And they almost won more than that. That's incredible.

[bradshaw2ben]

No chance to catch the Ravens unless they make some radical moves for Ben's last couple years. The starting D got gashed yesterday when they knew the run plays were getting called. Imaging if Jackson was starting.

I don't know about that. That defense thrives on emotion and they were treated to Baltimore showing the Titans game on the giant scoreboard during the game. With the emotions more on track, I think they can go toe to toe with Baltimore.

[steelmann58]

any chance that Samuels can be a full time TE or is he to small

[Jobu]

any chance that Samuels can be a full time TE or is he to small

Part time H back type...yeah.
In line TE...no way. Not in the Steelers/Tomlin system.

[Orangesteel]

Appreciate the mention in your article. Okay, I agree with you. Mike Tomlin is full of shit and I don't believe a fuckin' word he says. So they were prepared for the Patriots but just had their asses handed to them because of a shitty gameplan and absolute shit at certain positions. Whose fault is that? Couldn't be Tomlin's right? I love how you just poo poo yet another loss to the Patriots, and perhaps I should, too, knowing that he is Belichick's personal bitch. Too bad you can't see it, but those beatdowns at the hands of the Patriots whether it's the first game of the season or an AFCCG are absolutely inexcusable. Just like Cowher losing four of five AFCCGs in Pittsburgh (two to Belichick) is absolutely inexcusable, too.

Yes, I gave Tomlin credit for turning chicken shit into chicken salad for a time. Good on him for it, but once again with the Lucy act at the end of the season. I'm not going to be incensed about it. I'm just going to expect it.

I think when you are focused as an organization on:

1. stability (predictability)
2. execution (what we do, not the other team)
3. building to a crescendo (trading slow starts for hot in December)

You're an easy mark for a team you already don't match up well with, coaching aside. That's why it wasn't surprising. The Steelers play NE better later in the year, and have pretty much held their own against them in recent years later in the season (Jesse caught it, a win, Ben putting up a solid game without sny WRs of Lev Bell). This year, Ben wasn't right starting the season and I get the impression everybody knew it, including Ernie Adams.

NE has had everybody's number, man. It sucks. They're either outcoaching or outcheating or out-talenting us or some combination of all of that. It'll be the big knock on Tomlin/Ben's career, just as it was for Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning until they conquered them You're absolutely right that they own the Steelers more than the Rooneys. That still doesn't mean Mike Tomlin is a horrible coach or that this season shows that he should be fired. You might make a move just to shake up the staleness/complacency, but it's more likely Art 2 would step down and turn it over to his kid than it would be to see them part ways with Tomlin--unless he wants to go.

People bitching about the outcome of this season make me crazy. 14 games started by a guy who couldn't complete a pass that wasn't on the left sideline and another who stopped trying to throw to open receivers...with a fading OL a can't-stay-healthy RB crew and TE group that can't block anyone and never gets targeted as receivers. That was the 32nd ranked offense in DVOA, quite an accomplishment considering how bad Cincy, Miami, Carolina, and the Jets were for most of the season. There could have been incremental changes to eke out a couple more miracles but, honestly, it's a blessing the season is over without anyone else getting seriously injured or suffering career-lasting PTSD.

As it often is with backups/next man up: it works for a while, and then they hit the wall. The backups revert to the mean, the other guys on the team who raised their game to compensate can't sustain it forever. When those two lines on the graph merge, the season is over. They intersected sometime in the Buffalo game.

I’ve already said I’m at peace with how this season turned out. Some fun moments for sure.

But it’s the looking back at the last 10 years and noting we’ve won three playoff games in that span that’s uber depressing. Teams that win a SB win that in one post season. Took us 10 years to win three.

Ben hasn’t been perfect the last 10 years, but he’s played some damn good ball, plenty good enough to have won another ring and at least another 2-3 times to the AFCCG, but nope, didn’t happen.

So yeah, maybe I need to direct my anger towards Art2 than Tomlin. After all, it’s Art2 that has us stuck in the “Steelers Way”, which used to be about winning championships, not being content with 8-8 or 9-6-1 then going on record a week after the season is over spewing some bullshit about “a bounce here or a bounce there”.

Tomlin (and probably Fitchner) don’t strike me as thinkers. That’s my issue with them; I feel like they are just rolling with the gut but aren’t thinking. I like what you had to say about embracing analytics and the success it could bring to this organization.

Sooo, start turning the wheel of that oil tanker and expect some big changes and improvements in 2030?

[bradshaw2ben]

I think they were on their way to rebuilding the D enough to let Ben and offense carry them forward... and then Shazier went down. That wasn't just losing a piece, it was losing THE centerpiece of everything they did on D. They also prematurely lost Woodley and Jason Worilds. 3 playoff wins while you're rebuilding for most of that is a testament to how good Ben is and, to be fair, how solid a coach Tomlin is. They probably win even more if injuries hadn't decimated them seemingly every year by December/January. The best teams they had in that stretch have been missing either Bell, AB, Shazier, or a healthy Ben by the end of the season. Makes it tough to win playoff games.

[Kodiak]

If they "ease" Ben into the season I'm done. Fucking done. Would be another wasted season where we probably won't even make the playoffs.

[jebrick]

Unless something goes wildly wrong with the draft before mid-round 2, I am taking the best two-way TE I can grab with my first pick. I might even trade up for one, provided I have managed the team well during free agency.

I am going to guess you have not looked at the TEs in this draft yet. This TE class is piss-poor. You might like Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati mainly because he can actually block. But if they resign Vannett they will have the same player. Colby Parkinson, Stanford, might also fit the bill but I would not take him in the 2nd.

I like Bryce Hopkins from Purdue. He could not inline block to save his life but that is nearly all of the TEs in this class.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri looks like a TE but I do not think his talent should get him drafted before the 4th round. That is how weak this class is.

Right now, my boy in the 2nd is Nick Harris C, Washington. This is a bad draft for TE and IOL which is both of what the Steelers need.

[bradshaw2ben]

Kudos. Spot on. Sensible and level headed response to a roller coaster season.

Thanks for the perspective and the change to the new SteelerFury. Can't emphasize that enough.

Thank you. Glad you appreciate it.

[bradshaw2ben]

Unless something goes wildly wrong with the draft before mid-round 2, I am taking the best two-way TE I can grab with my first pick. I might even trade up for one, provided I have managed the team well during free agency.

I am going to guess you have not looked at the TEs in this draft yet. This TE class is piss-poor. You might like Josiah Deguara, Cincinnati mainly because he can actually block. But if they resign Vannett they will have the same player. Colby Parkinson, Stanford, might also fit the bill but I would not take him in the 2nd.

I like Bryce Hopkins from Purdue. He could not inline block to save his life but that is nearly all of the TEs in this class.

Albert Okwuegbunam, Missouri looks like a TE but I do not think his talent should get him drafted before the 4th round. That is how weak this class is.

Right now, my boy in the 2nd is Nick Harris C, Washington. This is a bad draft for TE and IOL which is both of what the Steelers need.

I know it’s a bad TE draft. I’ve seen at least two that I’d take at that spot. Also, let’s not forget no one thought Kittle could block for the same reasons we don’t think Hopkins can block. It’s hard to evaluate TE college film because they’re all running shotgun spread for everything and a mismatch TE in college is even more of a mismatch than he’ll be in NFL. Why spend a lot of time having him block inline?

[Orangesteel]

I think they were on their way to rebuilding the D enough to let Ben and offense carry them forward... and then Shazier went down. That wasn't just losing a piece, it was losing THE centerpiece of everything they did on D. They also prematurely lost Woodley and Jason Worilds. 3 playoff wins while you're rebuilding for most of that is a testament to how good Ben is and, to be fair, how solid a coach Tomlin is. They probably win even more if injuries hadn't decimated them seemingly every year by December/January. The best teams they had in that stretch have been missing either Bell, AB, Shazier, or a healthy Ben by the end of the season. Makes it tough to win playoff games.

Some of that is fair; some I don’t agree with. I think Tomlin’s effectiveness as a coach has waned, and I think the organization and Art2 is terrified to start from scratch. Losing Shazier was big, but given the draft capital used on the defense over the last decade that should not have been insurmountable. Or at least to not be thoroughly embarrassed like we were in several high stakes playoff games.

But it’s all good. Don’t have to agree on everything. Happy New Year.