My favorite so far from the QB measurements
Considering retirement after I was informed the football will be slipping out of my tiny hands. Please keep me in your thoughts.
— Joey Burrow (@Joe_Burrow10) February 24, 2020
Considering retirement after I was informed the football will be slipping out of my tiny hands. Please keep me in your thoughts.
— Joey Burrow (@Joe_Burrow10) February 24, 2020
The latest victim? LSU's Joe Burrow, who made headlines on the first day of the 2020 combine when his hand measured a minuscule 9 inches flat -- a quarter-inch smaller than Patrick Mahomes' mitts. The theory behind all of this, that a college quarterback's hand size correlates to his eventual fumble rate and overall performance on Sundays, has become one of the most prevalent metrics in NFL scouting. There are, however, just a few tiny theoretical stumbling blocks with this edict. For starters, it's based on a physiologically flawed principle and is, according to decades of data, utterly meaningless as a predictor of NFL performance.
One way to see if high school recruiting ratings accurately measure talent is to examine the NFL draft.
If the highest-rated players really are the most talented, then they should also be more likely to get drafted and have success once they're in the league. To test that theory, I mined data to see if the recruiting services' talent evaluations translate to the NFL.
Recruiting ratings are inexact, and among the thousands of players graduating high school each year, the ratings still overlook some players who go on to become NFL stars. Two-star players becoming Pro Bowlers do make for great stories, but stories are only anecdotal. SB Nation has done some great work in applying probabilistic thinking to recruiting ratings, and they showed that blue chippers are about 10 times more likely than non-blue chippers to be drafted in the first round. The also found that high-rated recruits are more likely to get drafted in the first place and that they tend to get picked earlier in the draft than low-rated recruits.
It just makes pushing money into the future so much easier. They can structure and re-structure deals if there's a new CBA. They are very limited in that regard if no new CBA by the beginning of league year (March 18).jebrick wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:13 pmhttps://overthecap.com/calculator/pittsburgh-steelers/
Over the cap is predicting a cap at $203M. That still leaves the Steelers 1.5M under the cap. It is estimated that the CBA, if signed as is, would increase cap space by about 3.5M with most of that being taken up by the increase in salaries for the lower priced players. 2021 could have a huge increase if the NFL gets their new TV deals.
Here's the thing, though: causation or correlation? NFL teams start building a file on prospects in high school. If you were a highly regarded high school prospect, you get many, many more chances to fail in college, your chances of getting an all-star invite are higher, chance to get a combine invite is higher, your chances of getting drafted higher, your chances of getting opportunities is higher. Basically, that HS ranking sticks with you for a loooooooong time. Just like NFL bloodlines and size/speed outliers.jebrick wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 3:51 pmhttp://www.sportsonearth.com/article/17 ... cts-talent
Interesting article on recruiting rankings vs the NFL draft/combine
IMO, any team during the combine and draft process that doesn't refer to the recruiting rankings, and also the age of a player, is badly out of touch and basically incompetent. Last thing I want in a top pick is a late blooming overaged stiff who was a lowly rated recruit. Who cares how that guy tests? Sure there are outlier examples. Outliers are for fools. Outliers serve to elevate the rule.
One way to see if high school recruiting ratings accurately measure talent is to examine the NFL draft.
If the highest-rated players really are the most talented, then they should also be more likely to get drafted and have success once they're in the league. To test that theory, I mined data to see if the recruiting services' talent evaluations translate to the NFL.
Recruiting ratings are inexact, and among the thousands of players graduating high school each year, the ratings still overlook some players who go on to become NFL stars. Two-star players becoming Pro Bowlers do make for great stories, but stories are only anecdotal. SB Nation has done some great work in applying probabilistic thinking to recruiting ratings, and they showed that blue chippers are about 10 times more likely than non-blue chippers to be drafted in the first round. The also found that high-rated recruits are more likely to get drafted in the first place and that they tend to get picked earlier in the draft than low-rated recruits.
It was a 4.44. Nice time, but not 4.3 nice.Steelknife wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:46 amGood for Justin Jefferson running a 4.3
What a good story he is.
That’s a good number for him!
That is a good number for a WR. Better than most WR tested
Whoops! Meant to type 4.43Jobu wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:10 amIt was a 4.44. Nice time, but not 4.3 nice.Steelknife wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:46 amGood for Justin Jefferson running a 4.3
What a good story he is.
He definitely made himself some money.Steelknife wrote: ↑Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:50 pmWhoops! Meant to type 4.43Jobu wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 2:10 amIt was a 4.44. Nice time, but not 4.3 nice.Steelknife wrote: ↑Fri Feb 28, 2020 12:46 amGood for Justin Jefferson running a 4.3
What a good story he is.