Scunge wrote: ↑Tue Oct 20, 2020 12:28 am
Bravo, Franco, finally somebody points out that we have two young OLBs that show real potential as starters.
Here is the thing about Ola, he is a RFA next season. Guess who else is a Restricted Free Agent next year? Ray Ray McCloud.
So, next offseason it isn't just about signing all of the obvious free agents but also these under the radar players too.
This year we had to two players in Matt Feiler and Mike Hilton that had 2nd round tenders placed on them to the tune of $6.52 million combined ($3.26 million each).
Many people when they try and look at next years cap and what players they sign, they never drill down and go into the details.
Well, signing Ola and McCloud to 2nd round tenders will happen, to do otherwise means kissing them goodbye.
Count me in as one who thinks both Bud and JuJu are both gone next year. I don't see where the money is going to come from. I think the $175 million floor will be a reality and the Steelers are one of four teams that are over 200 million ($203 million). It gets worse than that.
That is $203 million for only 34 players. The Steelers 2021 draft class (8 players) is projected to count $7.5 million against the cap.
So, $210.5 million for 42 players. You are 11 players shy of 53, so fill out the bottom of the roster with players that count 600K against the cap, that adds another $6.5 million against the cap.
Congratulations, there is your 53 man roster for 2021 and the Steelers are sitting at $217 million, 42 million over the cap.
$42 million over the cap and the team hasn't signed any of their free agents or restricted free agents yet.
Big Al
Matt Feiler
JuJu
James Conner
Ray Ray McCloud (RFA)
Tyson Alualu
Chris Wormley
Ola Adeniyi (RFA)
Robert Spillane (ERFA)
Mike Hilton
Cam Sutton
Bud Dupree
Dustin Colquitt
Jordan Dangerfield
Marcus Allen
Sean Davis
Jerald Hawkins
Zach Banner
Derwin Gray
Josh Dobbs
J C Hassenauer
Deon Cain
Those are 22 players that were on the team in 2020, but in 2021 they are all free agents in some capacity.
As I said, to keep Ray Ray McCloud around for another year, that will cost you probably a 2nd round tender of some $3.3 million. Ditto for Ola.
So, now you sign those two players and you are $48 million over the cap!
The Steelers are not going to be able to sign any free agents until they meet the cap floor of $175 million first.
They will have to restructure and cut players in a big way just to meet that $175 million floor.
To make it really simple, the Steelers have to somehow cut/restructure $50-60 million from those 34 players under contract to have any hope of signing some of their free agents
Ben maybe signs a new extension and frees up $8-10 million.
Joe Haden cut frees up $12.6 million.
A restructure of Cam and Tuitt frees up a combined $11 million.
Cut McDonald and that only creates $5.2 million.
So, those 5 moves are made and you only freed up $39 million? But now you are down a starting CB and a TE.
But you still need to create more cap space but guess what, you have no other big contracts left on the team to restructure, that well has dried up. Sure you can go to Boz And Derek Watt but those two only create a combined $2 million, not worth the effort.
No, this is where is gets dicey, do you go to DeCastro and cut him? That would free up $8.75 million.
Do you got to Vince Williams and cut him? That would free up $4 million.
But even if you did all that, made those 7 moves that gets you under the $175 million floor to somewhere around $160 million for only 30 players under contract.
If you cut DeCastro then some things seem preordained to me, as in you MUST sign Matt Feiler. He is G/T capable as a starter. In my mind he is the most important signing along the O-line, taking precedence over even signing Big Al.
If you cut Williams, you probably think they are optimistic that Bush is able to make a full recovery but that also means they probably sign Robert Spillane to more than just a one year deal. Yes, they have Gilbert and probably add another draft pick at ILB.
I think they are forced to make a choice between Hilton and Sutton, with Sutton being the more realistic option to sign to a reasonable deal.
I think they are forced to let Bud Dupree walk. I can see him getting a deal around $80-85 million. Everyone keep throwing around what Smith got in Green Bay, that was 2019 people!!! The contracts get bigger and bigger every year. I can easily see a team giving Dupree a 5 year $85 million deal with a $20 million bonus and larger first year base salary that the Steelers won't be able to compete with.
Anyway,
My predictions:
On Defense:
Sign Sutton (who is the new nickel back, replacing Mike Hilton)
Sign Alualu
Sign Spillane (who along with Gilbert, assume the vacated Vince Williams ILB position)
Sign Wormley
2nd round tender on Ola (who along with Highsmith compete for Bud Dupree's OLB position)
High draft pick and Justin Layne compete for Joe Haden's empty starting CB position.
On offense:
Sign Matt Feiler ( He can play at a starter capable level at both guard and tackle)
2nd round tender on Ray Ray McCloud (we finally have a great PR/KR who can also make plays as a slot WR, the anti-Switzer)
Sign James Conner (yes, maybe crazy talk to some, but I think Conner will take a hometown discount)
Sign Banner ( I think the team loves him and he will be the RT in 2021, much cheaper to go with Banner and Chuks at RT/LT then sign Big
Then I see them signing a veteran blocking TE to replace McDonald
Chuks after proving his mettle this year at RT, will shift to LT (Marvell Smith-style) and replace Big Al.
They can do all of that and still have some money left as a cushion, not enough of a cushion to sign Dupree or JuJu.