Mahomes: Something Never Done Before

[bradshaw2ben]

This is for you, @Mick

https://twitter.com/tejfbanalytics/stat ... jIAWzxe4GA

patrick mahomes won the super bowl taking up 17% of his team’s salary cap

previously there was no quarterback that won a super bowl taking up more than 12.5% of their team’s salary cap in a season

[jeemie]

If the Chiefs keep finding young talent like Pacheco and Valdez-Scantling, etc, it can be done.

You have to ace your drafts in order to get to a Super Bowl with that kind of a cap hit.

[bradshaw2ben]

Valdez-Scantling was a free agent who actually played pretty well with Green Bay. He signed with Kansas City for probably less than market because of course he did.

I’m more impressed with the OL KC put together.

Two castoffs (a trade and a FA their teams got rid of), they drafted a guy with a medical condition that had him off like 30 teams’ draft board, a 2nd-round-instead-of-a-TE, and a practice squad guy.

Including the trade, they spent roughly a 1st, 2nd and a 6th to acquire an OL that completely stonewalled Philly’s legendary 70-sack defensive front 7.

[Pabst]

If the Chiefs keep finding young talent like Pacheco and Valdez-Scantling, etc, it can be done.

You have to ace your drafts in order to get to a Super Bowl with that kind of a cap hit.

Valdes Scantling was signed away from Green Bay at $10m/year. And somewhat ironically, KC took a complete bust at RB in the 1st round of 2020, too.

Mahomes is what makes that team go.

[jeemie]

Valdez-Scantling was a free agent who actually played pretty well with Green Bay. He signed with Kansas City for probably less than market because of course he did.

I’m more impressed with the OL KC put together.

THREE castoffs (a trade and two FAs their teams got rid of), they drafted a guy with a medical condition that had him off like 30 teams’ draft board, and a practice squad guy.

Including the trade, they spent roughly a 1st and a 6th to acquire an OL that completely stonewalled Philly’s legendary 70-sack defensive front 7.

While schooling their superb DBs with the same types of motion over and over.

Talk about the holding call all you want…Kansas City eviscerated that defense, which was no small feat.

PS Forgot V-S came from Green Bay. And don’t forget their other hyphenated dude played pretty well last night.

While still managing to be an ass on TikTok lol.

[langer]

And Creed Humphrey lol

[bradshaw2ben]

Oh yeah sorry totally forgot to include him and his 2nd-instead-of-Freiermuth

[Pabst]

Two castoffs (a trade and a FA their teams got rid of),

Dude....

Thuney and Brown were in no way, shape, or form "cast-offs".

Brown wanted to play LT (and get paid accordingly), so Baltimore traded him. He'd been to 3 straight pro bowls at the time of the trade

Thuney is the 3rd highest paid G in the league.

[Mick]

Yeah, i’d estimate mahomes as worth about $70M/year, and i think his cap hit around $35M means KC is netting $35M of excess value at the position, comparable to what the best rookie-contract-QB situations are providing. I don’t think there’s another QB worth even $50M/year right now; i kinda see the talent difference between the #2 QB in the league and the #15 as smaller than between #1 and #2. (getting more into the weeds, i think the elite TEs in the league are worth $25M+ and getting paid half that, another big opportunity to sustainably retain extra roster value)

I guess big picture is bad news; i’m putting ‘arrow pointing down’ on a lot of teams in the immediate or near future, but for KC, ‘arrow pointing sideways’ to me. They have four key players on big contracts; that’s sustainable as long as they keep drafting well (and ideally trading guys for picks before having to pat them). So I think KC has already gone through their ‘decline’, and this is what their version of “Franchise QB Purgatory” looks like. That said, I think an under-reported key element of the KC 2022 strategy was ‘no injuries to the Big Four ever’.

[bradshaw2ben]

Two castoffs (a trade and a FA their teams got rid of),

Dude....

Thuney and Brown were in no way, shape, or form "cast-offs".

Brown wanted to play LT (and get paid accordingly), so Baltimore traded him. He'd been to 3 straight pro bowls at the time of the trade

Thuney is the 3rd highest paid G in the league.

Baltimore outright said they weren't going to pay him because he wasn't a LT. They traded him for a first, so it wasn't like he was a street FA but they did not want him.

You're right more or less about Thuney. The Patriots would have kept him at the right price, but they viewed G as a lower-importance position and had salary-cap problems. Even if they hadn't had salary cap issues, the jury's still out as to whether they would have paid.

My point was that neither of their former teams wanted them at the price where they wanted to be paid. Smith-Schuster & MVS are the same deal.

I appreciate that the KC FO had to work to get what they got on the OL and they took some chances (and spent money even thought their QB had a massive contract) compared to Steelers starting an average C & RG signed for 20% less than a great G, a 3rd rounder, & 2 4th rounders. Imagine if the Steelers had spent the same money & energy building Ben's OL in 2007-2011! Good chance at two more rings... great game of what if.

[Pabst]

Yeah, i’d estimate mahomes as worth about $70M/year, and i think his cap hit around $35M means KC is netting $35M of value at the position, comparable to what the best rookie-contract-QB situations are providing. I don’t think there’s another QB worth even $50M/year right now; i kinda see the talent difference between the #2 QB in the league and the #15 as smaller than between #1 and #2. (getting more into the weeds, i think the elite TEs in the league are worth $25M+ and getting paid half that, another big opportunity to sustainably retain extra roster value)

I guess big picture is bad news; i’m putting ‘arrow pointing down’ on a lot of teams in the immediate or near future, but for KC, ‘arrow pointing sideways’ to me. They have four key players on big contracts; that’s sustainable as long as they keep drafting well (and ideally trading guys for picks before having to pat them). So I think KC has already gone through their ‘decline’, and this is what their version of “Franchise QB Purgatory” looks like. That said, I think an under-reported key element of the KC 2022 strategy was ‘no injuries to the Big Four ever’.

Mahomes was at $35m this past season, but he jumps to $47m in 2023.

According to Overthecap, the Chiefs are effectively $7m over the cap next season. Once they cut Frank Clark and that number become $14m under. However....here's what KC is looking at:
- They don't have a QB on the roster other than Mahomes
- Juju and McKinnon (their #2 and #3 receivers) are both UFA
- Starters Orlando Brown Jr, Andrew Wylie, Derrick Nnandi, and Juan Thornhill are all UFA. Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap are both likely gone next season, which will hit their pass rush.
- Chris Jones (their best defensive player by a significant margin) will be a UFA in 2024. KC will need to keep that in mind when restructuring contracts / signing extensions.

[Pabst]

Two castoffs (a trade and a FA their teams got rid of),

Dude....

Thuney and Brown were in no way, shape, or form "cast-offs".

Brown wanted to play LT (and get paid accordingly), so Baltimore traded him. He'd been to 3 straight pro bowls at the time of the trade

Thuney is the 3rd highest paid G in the league.

Baltimore outright said they weren't going to pay him because he wasn't a LT. They traded him for a first, so it wasn't like he was a street FA but they did not want him.

You're right more or less about Thuney. The Patriots would have kept him at the right price, but they viewed G as a lower-importance position and had salary-cap problems. Even if they hadn't had salary cap issues, the jury's still out as to whether they would have paid.

My point was that neither of their former teams wanted them at the price where they wanted to be paid. Smith-Schuster & MVS are the same deal.

I appreciate that the KC FO had to work to get what they got on the OL and they took some chances (and spent money even thought their QB had a massive contract) compared to Steelers starting an average C & RG signed for 20% less than a great G, a 3rd rounder, & 2 4th rounders. Imagine if the Steelers had spent the same money & energy building Ben's OL in 2007-2011! Good chance at two more rings... great game of what if.

Baltimore had just extended Ronnie Stanley to a 5 year / $100m contract. They didn't want Brown because they had just locked up a boatload of $ at the LT position and had a massive QB extension on the horizon.

I'm with you on the rest.

[Charles Demarr]

If the Chiefs keep finding young talent like Pacheco and Valdez-Scantling, etc, it can be done.

You have to ace your drafts in order to get to a Super Bowl with that kind of a cap hit.

Not MVS...

Juju was a bargain, Pacheco late rounder, traded nothing to get Toney, Justin Watson, McKinnon was a cheap addition.

A smart well run organization unlike our Steelers.

[Pabst]

A smart well run organization unlike our Steelers.

I mean.....are we just going to ignore the 1970-2018 seasons?

We're all bitching about 3 playoff wins over the last 12 years - The Chiefs had exactly 4 over that 48 year span. Kudos to them for the recent success, don't get me wrong, but let's not pretend it's anything more than they landed a generational QB.

[Jizz Mop]

Oh yeah sorry totally forgot to include him and his 2nd-instead-of-Freiermuth

Ahhh yes, the ol FryDaddy over Humphrey selection

But hey, we got Green! A steal in the 3rd!

[Greeksteel]

To me the difference between Mahomes and the Chiefs and Ben and the Steelers is a clueless Head Coach and a conservative front office vs an offensive mastermind and a FO that isnt afraid to change the status quo.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Valdez-Scantling was a free agent who actually played pretty well with Green Bay. He signed with Kansas City for probably less than market because of course he did.

I’m more impressed with the OL KC put together.

THREE castoffs (a trade and two FAs their teams got rid of), they drafted a guy with a medical condition that had him off like 30 teams’ draft board, and a practice squad guy.

Including the trade, they spent roughly a 1st and a 6th to acquire an OL that completely stonewalled Philly’s legendary 70-sack defensive front 7.

And don’t forget their other hyphenated dude played pretty well last night.

While still managing to be an ass on TikTok lol.

On the JuJu series. He was a ghost until then as far as I can remember. It was like they were saving him for a secret series.

[K_C_]

A smart well run organization unlike our Steelers.

I mean.....are we just going to ignore the 1970-2018 seasons?

We're all bitching about 3 playoff wins over the last 12 years - The Chiefs had exactly 4 over that 48 year span. Kudos to them for the recent success, don't get me wrong, but let's not pretend it's anything more than they landed a generational QB.

Yep.

Mahomes probably could have led our current Steelers team to a fucking Super Bowl title.

The guy is the single most talented QB ever to play the game....and it isn't particularly close.

I don't know if Mahomes will ever break Brady's record for Lombardi's, but Mahomes is the GOAT.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

That's a one-off situation unlikely to be duplicated. The other thing is a QB like that will elevate the other offensive players' stats so they are worth more in FA when contract negotiations come up.

If KC and Cincy can sustain this success for 3-4 years, their FO deserves all the praise in the world.

[Steeldrama]

A smart well run organization unlike our Steelers.

I mean.....are we just going to ignore the 1970-2018 seasons?

We're all bitching about 3 playoff wins over the last 12 years - The Chiefs had exactly 4 over that 48 year span. Kudos to them for the recent success, don't get me wrong, but let's not pretend it's anything more than they landed a generational QB.

You missed the point completely.

The Brian Veech/Andy Reid duo wasn't a thing from 1970-2018

Look up the Patriots history before Belichick showed up.

Look at the Steelers record before Noll arrived.

The black hole before Jimmy Johnson turned the Cowboys around

Countless examples but what matters is the right NOW.

Point stands the Chiefs organization as CURRENTLY constructed is light years better than anything that includes the name Mike Tomlin

[Mick]

Yeah, i’d estimate mahomes as worth about $70M/year, and i think his cap hit around $35M means KC is netting $35M of value at the position, comparable to what the best rookie-contract-QB situations are providing. I don’t think there’s another QB worth even $50M/year right now; i kinda see the talent difference between the #2 QB in the league and the #15 as smaller than between #1 and #2. (getting more into the weeds, i think the elite TEs in the league are worth $25M+ and getting paid half that, another big opportunity to sustainably retain extra roster value)

I guess big picture is bad news; i’m putting ‘arrow pointing down’ on a lot of teams in the immediate or near future, but for KC, ‘arrow pointing sideways’ to me. They have four key players on big contracts; that’s sustainable as long as they keep drafting well (and ideally trading guys for picks before having to pat them). So I think KC has already gone through their ‘decline’, and this is what their version of “Franchise QB Purgatory” looks like. That said, I think an under-reported key element of the KC 2022 strategy was ‘no injuries to the Big Four ever’.

Mahomes was at $35m this past season, but he jumps to $47m in 2023.

According to Overthecap, the Chiefs are effectively $7m over the cap next season. Once they cut Frank Clark and that number become $14m under. However....here's what KC is looking at:
- They don't have a QB on the roster other than Mahomes
- Juju and McKinnon (their #2 and #3 receivers) are both UFA
- Starters Orlando Brown Jr, Andrew Wylie, Derrick Nnandi, and Juan Thornhill are all UFA. Frank Clark and Carlos Dunlap are both likely gone next season, which will hit their pass rush.
- Chris Jones (their best defensive player by a significant margin) will be a UFA in 2024. KC will need to keep that in mind when restructuring contracts / signing extensions.

mahomes contract has a $34M roster bonus this season. KC should be able to keep his cap hit well below $40M at least for the next five years if they want through restructuring; could probably drop it below $30M.

[bradshaw2ben]

To me the difference between Mahomes and the Chiefs and Ben and the Steelers is a clueless Head Coach and a conservative front office vs an offensive mastermind and a FO that isnt afraid to change the status quo.

oh is that all

[Orangesteel]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

[Jobu]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

Never stray from the Steelers way…

[Professor Half Wit]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

There was a Pacheco run to the left on the outside and if he had beat his man, he was gone. Eagle tackled him super low. First thing I thought was if that's Najee he hurdles that guy and is still rumbling. Second thing I thought was, Najee doesn't make it around the outside in first place.

[Mick]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

so when KC overdrafts an RB, it’s genius? We need to learn to waste premium picks on useless RBs the way KC does?

[Pabst]

A smart well run organization unlike our Steelers.

I mean.....are we just going to ignore the 1970-2018 seasons?

We're all bitching about 3 playoff wins over the last 12 years - The Chiefs had exactly 4 over that 48 year span. Kudos to them for the recent success, don't get me wrong, but let's not pretend it's anything more than they landed a generational QB.

You missed the point completely.

The Brian Veech/Andy Reid duo wasn't a thing from 1970-2018

Look up the Patriots history before Belichick showed up.

Look at the Steelers record before Noll arrived.

The black hole before Jimmy Johnson turned the Cowboys around

Countless examples but what matters is the right NOW.

Point stands the Chiefs organization as CURRENTLY constructed is light years better than anything that includes the name Mike Tomlin

Well, to the bolded in particular - The Hunt family sure as shit owned the Chiefs throughout that entire time frame. Clark has been the chairman of the team since 2005, and during his ownership, the team has gone through 4 GMs and 5 Head Coaches. They were Browns-level disfunctional until Andy Reid came along.

And speaking of Reid.....Up until he got Mahomes (which includes his first 5 seasons in KC), Reid had a well-earned reputation as being a playoff choker and a dunce in clock management (sound familiar?).

"The Chiefs organization as CURRENTLY constructed is light years better" = having a generational QB in his prime. Nothing more. Next year, Mahomes will be turning 28 and entering his 7th season. That just so happens to be the same age/season Ben went to his final super bowl.


As far as the other coaches mentioned:
Bill Belichick has coached 10 seasons in which Tom Brady was not his starting QB....He missed the playoffs in 8 of them.

Noll did nothing as a coach once Bradshaw, Greene, etc retired.

Jimmy Johnson did nothing in his career outside of that 5 year run in Dallas (although credit to him for pulling off the Walker trade). Frankly, if Johnson didn't have such a media presence he wouldn't be in the HOF.


If you want to say that Tomlin has gotten stale and new blood is needed, I totally respect it and agree to a large extend (my follow up will always be "then who do we realistically get").

[Pabst]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

so when KC overdrafts an RB, it’s genius? We need to learn to waste premium picks on useless RBs the way KC does?

And McKinnon signed for peanuts because he's over 30 and has spent nearly half his career on IR.

[COR-TEN]

If you want to say that Tomlin has gotten stale and new blood is needed, I totally respect it and agree to a large extent (my follow up will always be "then who do we realistically get").

I second this.

[Orangesteel]

Pacheco and McKinnon, peanuts. CEH didn’t even play, right?

Najee Harris, lots and lots of capital.

We are doing it all wrong.

so when KC overdrafts an RB, it’s genius? We need to learn to waste premium picks on useless RBs the way KC does?

And McKinnon signed for peanuts because he's over 30 and has spent nearly half his career on IR.

We are drafting the wrong guys signing the wrong free agents. But other than that we are killing it.