Playoff games

[Dan Smith--BYU]

This is from two years ago.

Dan Campbell is great at 4th down decisions even during a miserable season (still tied Steelers), the Steelers SUCK:

https://twitter.com/benbbaldwin/status/ ... decisioons

Analytics also show this is what cost the game:

https://twitter.com/PowellAnalytics/sta ... d04df801c5

[Pabst]

This is from two years ago.

The year that Detroit won 3 games?

According to your chart, the 2 teams that did the best job of going for it "when they should have" finished 3-13-1 and 8-9, respectively.

Meanwhile, the teams that met in the Super Bowl that season were both in the bottom half of the league.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Again, garbage in garbage out. Analytics doesn't mean you go 16-0 with little talent. You're not getting it.

[Pabst]

All I'm doing it pointing out the flaws in the model you keep pointing to.

Sorry if "you're not getting it" isn't very convincing to me.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

It's plain obtuse to argue about stats with the attitude, "see it didn't work". That's not how life works.

Again, you are strawmanning. No one in analytics says these decisions always work or even that the work most of the time, simply that the odds are better than the other choice.

How did you do in that college quantum mechanics class?

[Pabst]

It's plain obtuse to argue about stats with the attitude, "see it didn't work". That's not how life works.

Again, you are strawmanning. No one in analytics says these decisions always work or even that the work most of the time, simply that the odds are better than the other choice.

How did you do in that college quantum mechanics class?

That isn't even remotely what I'm arguing. I'm saying the model itself is flawed. You haven't even acknowledged that, let alone refuted it.

Then, you accuse me of strawmanning.

At this point I'm just going to assume you either can't read or are arguing in bad faith. Have a nice one.

[Professor Half Wit]

It's plain obtuse to argue about stats with the attitude, "see it didn't work". That's not how life works.

Again, you are strawmanning. No one in analytics says these decisions always work or even that the work most of the time, simply that the odds are better than the other choice.

How did you do in that college quantum mechanics class?

Me?

Real shitty.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

I can't tell how shitty I did in quantum mechanics because I couldn't know my class position and momentum at the same time.

Or it could have been the weed.

[Professor Half Wit]

I can't tell how shitty I did in quantum mechanics because I couldn't know my class position and momentum at the same time.

Or it could have been the weed.

I stopped smoking weed the first time I tried to read Aristotle's Metaphysics. I was like, I can handle one of these things, but not both. Still wonder whether I chose wisely.

[franco32]

Quick question about analytics. What inputs does the model have for these 4th down decisions? Does it include variables such as time left, score differential, defensive ranking of the opponent?

In other words, data is only as smart as the inputs.

[K_C_]

There are 2 reasons that I know the correct decision is to take the field goal attempt there.

1) A field goal makes it a 3 score game.

2) The Niners were dialing up the heat on Goff and were GETTING THERE. They were making him uncomfortable and had started routinely forcing him off his first and even second reads. Goff was starting to scramble out of the pocket and that isn't his game. You knew on a 4th and 3 there that Goff WAS going to throw the ball and San Fran forced Goff to make a throw to (what looked like) his third read. Goff made a good, but hurried throw and Reynolds dropped it.

Sure, we aren't talking about this decision if Reynolds holds on, but that play changed the entire game. Odds are they make the field goal and getting nothing out of that 4th down attempt moved momentum completely in San Fran's favor and they never let it go.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Does it include variables such as time left, score differential, defensive ranking of the opponent?

The first two plus time outs for each team. The defensive ranking of opponent and offensive ranking of the team are averaged.

[Deebo]

I'm going to defend Dan Campbell on his decisions...they didn't work out but he was statistically correct.

Just coz you held on 18 doesn't make you wrong if the dealer hits 4 after showing a 6 with a 10 down.

The problem was the DET dropsies and also a lucky fluke INT that turned into a huge completion.

Troglodytes like Tomlin will now use this as a justification to continue making too conservative decisions on 4 and 2.

It's almost like the correct way to do most things is a happy medium.

Campbell goes for it often- that is extreme
Tomlin often chooses to kick- that is extreme too

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Campbell is more correct than Tomlin. See the chart.

[swissvale72]

I'm going to defend Dan Campbell on his decisions...they didn't work out but he was statistically correct.

Just coz you held on 18 doesn't make you wrong if the dealer hits 4 after showing a 6 with a 10 down.

The problem was the DET dropsies and also a lucky fluke INT that turned into a huge completion.

Troglodytes like Tomlin will now use this as a justification to continue making too conservative decisions on 4 and 2.

It's almost like the correct way to do most things is a happy medium.

Campbell goes for it often- that is extreme
Tomlin often chooses to kick- that is extreme too

Remember when Tomlin would routinely go for 2 ?

[955876]

I like when he went for 2 from the 12.

[Jobu]

I like when he went for 2 from the 12.

Dan Campbell did that too!

[steelclan]

I honestly cannot fathom how the Ravens fucked that up.

They had every advantage going: homefield, a banged-up Chiefs team with a sputtering offense and the Ravens were as healthy as you could hope to be.

I cannot see how they get a better chance at winning a SB with Lamar.

Bengals will get Burrow back, Texans will get better, Chiefs will likely get better and Ravens have a ton of FAs and not much cap space.

Among those FAs? Their best pass rusher: Madbuike. He is going to get paid and tough to see how Ravens pay that given limited cap space.

Queen, Clowney, Zeitler, KVN, Stone, OBJ all FAs. Clowney had a career year and KVN was excellent for them. Zeitler (underappreciated) was one of the best OGs in the NFL.

Ravens best 3 pass rushers could be out the door. Oweh has still yet to step up and Ojabo before he got hurt looked like a deer in headlights.

[PennyBacker]

Fumble Machine Lamar has untimely lost the ball at the 1 yd line multiple times.

Looks like Zay Flowers is down with the sickness himself.

[jebrick]

I honestly cannot fathom how the Ravens fucked that up.

They had every advantage going: homefield, a banged-up Chiefs team with a sputtering offense and the Ravens were as healthy as you could hope to be.

I cannot see how they get a better chance at winning a SB with Lamar.

Bengals will get Burrow back, Texans will get better, Chiefs will likely get better and Ravens have a ton of FAs and not much cap space.

Among those FAs? Their best pass rusher: Madbuike. He is going to get paid and tough to see how Ravens pay that given limited cap space.

Queen, Clowney, Zeitler, KVN, Stone, OBJ all FAs. Clowney had a career year and KVN was excellent for them. Zeitler (underappreciated) was one of the best OGs in the NFL.

Ravens best 3 pass rushers could be out the door. Oweh has still yet to step up and Ojabo before he got hurt looked like a deer in headlights.

chiefs went to the "Steeler" defense that has been successful vs L. Jackson. THat the Ravens do not have an answer for it yet should be a question for the Ravens.

[Pabst]

Among those FAs? Their best pass rusher: Madbuike. He is going to get paid and tough to see how Ravens pay that given limited cap space.

Queen, Clowney, Zeitler, KVN, Stone, OBJ all FAs. Clowney had a career year and KVN was excellent for them. Zeitler (underappreciated) was one of the best OGs in the NFL.

Ravens best 3 pass rushers could be out the door. Oweh has still yet to step up and Ojabo before he got hurt looked like a deer in headlights.

You've actually missed a few key UFAs for Baltimore: Tyler Huntley, Gus Edwards, Nelson Agholor, Devin Duvernay, and John Simpson.

When you add it all up, that's *8* starters hitting Free Agency for the Ravens plus their backup QB, primary KR, and a few other depth guys.

To make matters worse....Clowney (31), Zeitler (34), Van Noy (33), Agholor/ODB (31) are all on the downswing of their careers so re-signing them would be a massive risk.


I should say, however - As bad as the Ravens situation is, it's nothing compared to Cleveland.

[jebrick]

I thought the Browns were better off due to rollover money.

49'ers have to be in all or nothing mode. The can has reached the end of the road for them on several contracts. Trent Williams and Aiyuk are two that come to mind. Plus Young is a rental. Armstead is owed big money. THey will have to pay Purdy soon as well.

[K_C_]

I can't tell how shitty I did in quantum mechanics because I couldn't know my class position and momentum at the same time.

Or it could have been the weed.

I stopped smoking weed the first time I tried to read Aristotle's Metaphysics. I was like, I can handle one of these things, but not both. Still wonder whether I chose wisely.

I hate smart motherfuckers like you.

I am a quarter of the way through James Joyce’s “Ulysses” and Joyce can suck my dick. I have NO IDEA what in the fuck I’m reading. The only way I’ve had any grasp on what this fuck is trying to say is by going over to Wikipedia after each chapter.

Joyce has said that he wanted this book to confuse college professors for hundreds of years and that bastard can blow me.

I already bailed to read the 33 1/3 book on Bowie’s “Low” album. Did you know Bowie was living on milk, red peppers and Scarface levels of cocaine to the point he had absolutely no memory of making “Station to Station?”

[Pabst]

I thought the Browns were better off due to rollover money.

49'ers have to be in all or nothing mode. The can has reached the end of the road for them on several contracts. Trent Williams and Aiyuk are two that come to mind. Plus Young is a rental. Armstead is owed big money. THey will have to pay Purdy soon as well.

*Cracks knuckles*

They are, but "better off" is relative. They are still $20.5m *over* the projected cap for next season.

"But Pabst", you might say, "they can just convert their top salaries into prorated bonus money!" Sure...but there's a big problem with that. Here's the Browns' top 12 salaries for next season, which represents 80% of their total cap hit:

Browns Cap.PNG (38.63 KiB) Viewed 1131 times

Notice anything? Garrett, Bitonio, Teller, Njoku, Tomlinson, and Oko are all making league minimum next year. In other words, all of their cap hit is allocated to bonus money. They cannot restructure those contracts any further.

That means the only options for restructure/extensions are Watson, Cooper, Ward, Chubb, Willis, and Conklin. Let's look at each one:
1. A Watson restructure could save around $35m in cap room. Problem with that is you kick out another $9m into next season (more on that in a sec) and the cap hit for your under-performing QB balloons to an astronomical $73m next year.....$12m more than Mahomes btw.

2. Amari Cooper and Nick Chubb are both UFAs after the 24 season, so both can be extended. Here's the problem - Chubb is coming off a major injury and Cooper turns 30 this summer.

3. Denzel Ward is the most obvious restructure canddate, and that would save a maximum of $11.3m

4. Willis and Conklin. Willis is *also* a UFA after this year....but the problem is that he kinda sucks. A Conklin restructure would only result in minimal savings, but Conklin also turns 30 this offseason and is coming off of his FOURTH season ending injury.


Now....having said all of that, here's the other problem for Cleveland: They're already $30m OVER the projected 2025 salary cap, and this doesn't include extensions/replacements for Za'Darius Smith, Sione Takitaki, Shelby Harris, or Harrison Bryant (all starters who are UFA). Nor Nick Chubb, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, JOK, and Greg Newsome (all UFA after next season). And that's all BEFORE counting any restructures from 2024.

Good luck, Browns!

[langer]

Did you know Bowie was living on milk, red peppers and Scarface levels of cocaine to the point he had absolutely no memory of making “Station to Station?”

Well, it resulted in his best album.

[K_C_]

Did you know Bowie was living on milk, red peppers and Scarface levels of cocaine to the point he had absolutely no memory of making “Station to Station?”

Well, it resulted in his best album.

I wouldn’t go that far but I love “Station to Station.”

[langer]

Did you know Bowie was living on milk, red peppers and Scarface levels of cocaine to the point he had absolutely no memory of making “Station to Station?”

Well, it resulted in his best album.

I wouldn’t go that far but I love “Station to Station.”

Its got everything, the melodies, grooves, prog, weirdness, and originality.

[Pabst]

One other thing i want to mention regarding the Browns: There was a lot of hoopla around how they battled through injuries this year, but that ONLY impacted the offense. Cleveland's D was amazingly healthy all year.

Throughout 2023, Cleveland's starting Defense missed only 20 games combined due to injury, and 10/11 Day One starters were out there for their playoff game vs Houston. By contrast, the Steelers exceeded that number with their top 3 ILBs alone.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

"I have NO IDEA what in the fuck I’m reading. The only way I’ve had any grasp on what this fuck is trying to say is by going over to Wikipedia after each chapter.

Joyce has said that he wanted this book to confuse college professors for hundreds of years and that bastard can blow me."

100 percent. William Borroughs too. Fuck cryptic writing that doesn't even make sense cryptically.

If want a classic that's brief and engaging and that holds up, try "Fathers and Sons" by Turgerev or "Notes from Underground" by Dostoyevksy. Both great takedowns of nihilism meshed with a good story.

Station to Station was so awesome and I love the title track. Gets back to my point about Taylor Swift. I don't hate it, I hate that it sucks all the air out of the room. The Eagles and Fleetwood Mac did the same when Bowie and Elvis Costello and the Pretenders and even the Dolls were putting out revolutionary stuff.

It's up at the top for me, just behind Hunky Dory and Spiders.

Kraftwerk and Chic were more influential to modern music than the Beatles and Stones. Prove me wrong.

[bradshaw2ben]

"I have NO IDEA what in the fuck I’m reading. The only way I’ve had any grasp on what this fuck is trying to say is by going over to Wikipedia after each chapter.

Joyce has said that he wanted this book to confuse college professors for hundreds of years and that bastard can blow me."

100 percent. William Borroughs too. Fuck cryptic writing that doesn't even make sense cryptically.

If want a classic that's brief and engaging and that holds up, try "Fathers and Sons" by Turgerev or "Notes from Underground" by Dostoyevksy. Both great takedowns of nihilism meshed with a good story.

Station to Station was so awesome and I love the title track. Gets back to my point about Taylor Swift. I don't hate it, I hate that it sucks all the air out of the room. The Eagles and Fleetwood Mac did the same when Bowie and Elvis Costello and the Pretenders and even the Dolls were putting out revolutionary stuff.

It's up at the top for me, just behind Hunky Dory and Spiders.

Kraftwerk and Chic were more influential to modern music than the Beatles and Stones. Prove me wrong.

I first read Ulysses when I was in high school. I was like WTF.

Time passed. I worked in Ireland for a while. My appreciation of things grew broader-- especially the way that everyone and everything in Ireland is poetic and storytelling there always has a patina of metaphor and misdirection. Next time I opened Ulysses I was like 50 and I thought it was brilliant. It is an incredible mashup of folklore, myth, poetry, nonsense, and an attack on self-seriousness.