Door Opener Award

[955876]

Kick the FG to go up 8

No brainer

Mike Tomlin is and always will be a dunce

I like our chances up 8 w 4 mins left the way the D had been playing

Idiotic dumbfuck is Tomlin

This is where I’m at.

Plus, you are running a sneak when…

1) you have a rookie center making first start ever along with a LG making first start ever.

2) A QB with many examples of botching the center/QB exchange.

3) A oline that didn’t know the play call and were looking around not knowing what was going on.

I’m all for going for it. But yesterday I kick that FG to force a TD and two-pointer.

Remember when Jibbs punted on 4th and 1 from the opponents 46 down two scores?

This dipshit’s gut feeling is often wrong but seemingly never in doubt.

[Pabst]

I also, with a new holder gone for it inside the 10 with 31 seconds remaining....same reasoning. Let them try to go 90 yards in that time frame with no timeouts

Starting on the 30 they had a decent chance of an eventual Hail Mary attempt into the endzone e

I actually had the same thought here. Atlanta needed a TD either way, but if you go for it and fail they need to move the ball 20+ extra yards in that same time frame (<30 seconds).

It's an academic exercise, I guess.

[VeritasSteel]

Kick the FG to go up 8

No brainer

Mike Tomlin is and always will be a dunce

I like our chances up 8 w 4 mins left the way the D had been playing

Idiotic dumbfuck is Tomlin

5 is the same thing as 8 because the Falcons needed a TD and a 2 point conversion regardless. A 2 point lead is useless. So here are your 4 outcomes outside of scoring a TD or turning the ball over (the extremes)

Falcons get the ball on 30 with all their TOs and full use of the entire playbook (FG on first fourth)
Falcons get the ball on the 3 yard line all their TOs (failing on fourth)
Falcons get the ball on the 30 with no TOs or with 3:00 left (succeeding on fourth, running three plays and FG)
Falcons get the ball on the 1 with no TOs and with 3:00 left (succeeding on first fourth, failing on second)


The first one is the only option in which the Falcons get an advantage or level playing field- and thats kicking the FG. Now we haven’t talked about the positive factors with the defense and special teams- but the point is the Falcons needed the result and their chances of getting it were less than 15% and add in the field position, diminished time , and playbook options it was more like 5%.

[stillthere]

I also, with a new holder gone for it inside the 10 with 31 seconds remaining....same reasoning. Let them try to go 90 yards in that time frame with no timeouts

Starting on the 30 they had a decent chance of an eventual Hail Mary attempt into the endzone e

The punter being hurt and having to rely on a back up holder is a legit reason to maybe go for it. That is not what the situation was when Tomlin decided up 5 is worth more than up 8.

the defense has 74 million dollars being paid to Watt, Heyward, Fitzpatrick this season If they cannot hold an 8 point lead and 70+ yards with a few minutes left then why did they pay those players? Are they not worth the contracts?

[VeritasSteel]

You kick it out of the back of the EZ. Take KO team issue out of play.

If you go up 8, then it basically plays out that Atlanta will have one change to get a TD + 2 point conversion. So whatever odds are that Atlanta scores, you need to multiply that by roughly 50%. The odds there are quite low. So if that happens, you win. There would probably be about 45 seconds to 90 seconds left and the Steelers likely would have a time out or two. So even in the case where they score and get a two point conversion, there is a chance to get 25 yards to give Boz a really long chance to win the game in regulation. Then OT is a coin flip.

When you multiply out those odds it is probably something like 93% chance of winning by kicking the FG (odds of losing need 35% chance of Atlanta scoring a TD * 50% two point * 85% Steelers don't get a last second Steelers FG * 50% OT).

If you go for it and succeed, then your odds of winning go up. If all that happens is four runs (e.g., the fourth down pick up + three stuffed runs) then you end up taking the clock down to the 2 minute warning and going up 8. Also if you get a TD there, then you win. Of course, the other outcome is that the Steelers go for it again on fourth down and fail. But lets ignore that.

The downside is that if you don't get the fourth down, then a TD puts you behind by 1 or 3 (Atlanta would go for a two pointer). So now you would need your offense to with relatively little time get in range for a long Boz FG attempt. If Atlanta scores a TD (call it 30%), I think there is probably about a 5% chance of the Steelers winning in that case (if down three FG only gets them to OT and probably less time on the clock). You pick up that 4th down probably 80% of the time. So the expected cost of failure is about 5.7%. The steady state was already 93%.

You can play with the weights but it really is hard to justify the decision (at best it comes out to almost neutral).

With respect, your numbers for Atlanta’s potential success rate are overstated due to a variety of factors. You have also diminished the second 4th down attempt as it puts the Falcons in an even more disadvantaged situation so it cannot be ruled out.

So without even looking up the stat we can safely say that there is less than 3% chance that a 95 yard plus drive ends in a TD that involves more than one or two plays. So if the context is the same action is required by the Falcons to tie the game as it would be to take the lead and there’s only a <3% chance of them succeeding. Why is this even a debate?

The Steelers have a 80% chance to either end the game outright, take up all the conceivable clock, or take away the Falcons ability to use their entire playbook (no timeouts and poor field position). So if there’s a 80% of something positive happening if you go for it and a less than 3% of you losing the lead if you don’t make it- its hard to understand the debate on good call or not.

The Falcons needed 8 points regardless-if it’s 5 or 8. so the question is, do you want them starting at the 30 or the 3? Starting there gives them a 20% probability to score a TD as opposed to starting at the 3 it is less than 3%- (more like 1%).

[955876]

I also, with a new holder gone for it inside the 10 with 31 seconds remaining....same reasoning. Let them try to go 90 yards in that time frame with no timeouts

Starting on the 30 they had a decent chance of an eventual Hail Mary attempt into the endzone e

I actually had the same thought here. Atlanta needed a TD either way, but if you go for it and fail they need to move the ball 20+ extra yards in that same time frame (<30 seconds).

It's an academic exercise, I guess.

Different TDs though. If we go and fail their TD essentially wins the game.

If we kick they need that TD plus a two pointer just to tie.

Like you said, academic at this point.

[zeke5123]

Kick the FG to go up 8

No brainer

Mike Tomlin is and always will be a dunce

I like our chances up 8 w 4 mins left the way the D had been playing

Idiotic dumbfuck is Tomlin

5 is the same thing as 8 because the Falcons needed a TD and a 2 point conversion regardless. A 2 point lead is useless. So here are your 4 outcomes outside of scoring a TD or turning the ball over (the extremes)

Falcons get the ball on 30 with all their TOs and full use of the entire playbook (FG on first fourth)
Falcons get the ball on the 3 yard line all their TOs (failing on fourth)
Falcons get the ball on the 30 with no TOs or with 3:00 left (succeeding on fourth, running three plays and FG)
Falcons get the ball on the 1 with no TOs and with 3:00 left (succeeding on first fourth, failing on second)


The first one is the only option in which the Falcons get an advantage or level playing field- and thats kicking the FG. Now we haven’t talked about the positive factors with the defense and special teams- but the point is the Falcons needed the result and their chances of getting it were less than 15% and add in the field position, diminished time , and playbook options it was more like 5%.

You have made a fundamental error both here and in your other reply. While the Falcons if they scored a TD would go for two regardless, they only need to get the two pointer if the Steelers got another FG. That is the whole debate! You can't assume the Steelers would get into FG range and hit after the Falcons score. The biggest difference between a 5 point lead and an 8 point lead is that in the former you need to score more points in regulation to either tie or win, whereas in the latter if your last minute drive fails you will go to overtime.

So, no the four options are not the same.

[Pabst]

Different TDs though. If we go and fail their TD essentially wins the game.

If we kick they need that TD plus a two pointer just to tie.

Like you said, academic at this point.

Oh, I definitely get that. And if ATL had even one timeout I don't even consider going for it. That extra 23 yards is a ton with no TOs left.

I'd venture to guess either scenario gives the Steelers a 95%+ chance of winning.

[zeke5123]

Different TDs though. If we go and fail their TD essentially wins the game.

If we kick they need that TD plus a two pointer just to tie.

Like you said, academic at this point.

Oh, I definitely get that. And if ATL had even one timeout I don't even consider going for it. That extra 23 yards is a ton with no TOs left.

I'd venture to guess either scenario gives the Steelers a 95%+ chance of winning.

Are you talking about the very end of the game? We are talking about when the Falcons still had three time outs.

[VeritasSteel]

You have made a fundamental error both here and in your other reply. While the Falcons if they scored a TD would go for two regardless, they only need to get the two pointer if the Steelers got another FG. That is the whole debate!

You are debating about a defeated strategy. They still needed a TD. The job of the defense would be to stop them from scoring a touchdown. so knowing that were would we get the advantage as a defense if the ball is at the 3 or 30?

You can't assume the Steelers would get into FG range and hit after the Falcons score. The biggest difference between a 5 point lead and an 8 point lead is that in the former you need to score more points in regulation to either tie or win, whereas in the latter if your last minute drive fails you will go to overtime.



So, no the four options are not the same.

The four options are the outcomes that could have occurred. They aren’t the same because they are….different possibilities from one event.

The simple math is do give the Falcons a 15% chance to tie the game or less than 2% chance to win it. This after taking a 80% positive outcome decision to completely ice the game.

The causality results of having a 5 or 8 point lead is moot when your defense is manhandling an offense and not giving up a FG chances, let alone a Touchdown.

[stillthere]

You have made a fundamental error both here and in your other reply. While the Falcons if they scored a TD would go for two regardless, they only need to get the two pointer if the Steelers got another FG. That is the whole debate!

You are debating about a defeated strategy. They still needed a TD. The job of the defense would be to stop them from scoring a touchdown. so knowing that were would we get the advantage as a defense if the ball is at the 3 or 30?

You can't assume the Steelers would get into FG range and hit after the Falcons score. The biggest difference between a 5 point lead and an 8 point lead is that in the former you need to score more points in regulation to either tie or win, whereas in the latter if your last minute drive fails you will go to overtime.



So, no the four options are not the same.

The four options are the outcomes that could have occurred. They aren’t the same because they are….different possibilities from one event.

The simple math is do give the Falcons a 15% chance to tie the game or less than 2% chance to win it. This after taking a 80% positive outcome decision to completely ice the game.

The causality results of having a 5 or 8 point lead is moot when your defense is manhandling an offense and not giving up a FG chances, let alone a Touchdown.

Almost like saying Tim Tebow couldn't throw a TD pass in OT.

[Pabst]

Different TDs though. If we go and fail their TD essentially wins the game.

If we kick they need that TD plus a two pointer just to tie.

Like you said, academic at this point.

Oh, I definitely get that. And if ATL had even one timeout I don't even consider going for it. That extra 23 yards is a ton with no TOs left.

I'd venture to guess either scenario gives the Steelers a 95%+ chance of winning.

Are you talking about the very end of the game? We are talking about when the Falcons still had three time outs.

Very end when the Falcons had no TOs. I was replying to a comment swiss made.