I thought teams would kill for Tomlin

[K_C_]

Replacing a coach with another coach who your guy beat 5 out of 6 the last games by an average of 17 points would be the dumbest thing the Bills have done in franchise history.

There is only a very specific scenario where I can see a team interested in Tomlin, and that's an absolute failed franchise like CLE or Vegas that just wants to get the fans excited by hiring Tomlin.

Like you said, there's nothing in the last 10-15 years of Tomlin's playoff career that would be appealing to a team on the doorstep like BUF. Tomlin has also largely failed at rebuilding, which takes most of the other teams off the table.

So maybe 4-6 teams would actually consider hiring Tomlin, but there won't be a bidding war and there won't be significant draft compensation. And Tomlin would have no interest going to those failed franchises because it will bury his waning HOF chances.

Disagree.

Tomlin will not go to a rebuilding team like the Raiders or Browns.

He will ONLY go to a situation like Buffalo, where he is in a ready made situation to win the big one immediately.

...and if MacDermott comes up empty again next season, Cool Shades just might get his wish.

Also, you mentioned that Tomlin has "failed at rebuilding." I'll disagree with that. The Steelers have never once tried to rebuild, even after Roethlisberger's retirement.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Buffalo hiring Tomlin to get them over the hump is like hiring Woody Allen as a FB/TE to win the tush push.

[K_C_]

Buffalo hiring Tomlin to get them over the hump is like hiring Woody Allen as a FB/TE to win the tush push.

Tomlin has a ring, with mainly Cowher’s players and especially with Ben Roethlisberger, who is a lot like Josh Allen.

The ring Tomlin won with Cowher’s players along with then going back to the Super Bowl a few years later likely makes Tomlin a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.

Sean MacDermott has never even been to a Super Bowl and it’s looking less and less likely every season that he’ll ever get to a Super Bowl.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

There are 32 teams in the league, if you have 19 chances to win at 1/32, you have a decent chance to win ONE without being anything special.

Run the math and raise the odds to 1/10 or 1/15 each year because he had Ben and the Bs so his performance is completely unremarkable.

By that metric Doug Peterson should be HOF.

if your odds of winning every year is 1/32 what are the odds of winning at least once in 19 years? I asked chatgpt.

Straight answer:

If your chance to win in any given year is 1/32, and each year is independent, then the odds of never winning in 19 years are:

Final answer

About a 45% chance of winning at least once over 19 years.

Tell-it-like-it-is takeaway:
Even with “terrible” yearly odds, time does a lot of work for you—but it still doesn’t guarantee anything. After nearly two decades, you’re still basically flipping a slightly rigged coin.

I then asked chatgpt what the odds were if it were 1/10 over 12 years which I think reasonably approximates the prime Ben years:

About a 72% chance of winning at least once over 12 years.

So by any decent statistical analysis, Tomlin won not by being great but by being rehired.

[.Kodiak]

Replacing a coach with another coach who your guy beat 5 out of 6 the last games by an average of 17 points would be the dumbest thing the Bills have done in franchise history.

There is only a very specific scenario where I can see a team interested in Tomlin, and that's an absolute failed franchise like CLE or Vegas that just wants to get the fans excited by hiring Tomlin.

Like you said, there's nothing in the last 10-15 years of Tomlin's playoff career that would be appealing to a team on the doorstep like BUF. Tomlin has also largely failed at rebuilding, which takes most of the other teams off the table.

So maybe 4-6 teams would actually consider hiring Tomlin, but there won't be a bidding war and there won't be significant draft compensation. And Tomlin would have no interest going to those failed franchises because it will bury his waning HOF chances.

Disagree.

Tomlin will not go to a rebuilding team like the Raiders or Browns.

Once again, despite quoting me you've pretended to disagree with something I already said. I even bolded it for you.

[.Kodiak]

The ring Tomlin won with Cowher’s players along with then going back to the Super Bowl a few years later likely makes Tomlin a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.

And yet NO ONE thinks Mike McCarthy is a HOFer...and he has a better playoff record than Tomlin, and I'm pretty sure has even won a playoff game in the last decade.

[K_C_]

There is only a very specific scenario where I can see a team interested in Tomlin, and that's an absolute failed franchise like CLE or Vegas that just wants to get the fans excited by hiring Tomlin.

Like you said, there's nothing in the last 10-15 years of Tomlin's playoff career that would be appealing to a team on the doorstep like BUF. Tomlin has also largely failed at rebuilding, which takes most of the other teams off the table.

So maybe 4-6 teams would actually consider hiring Tomlin, but there won't be a bidding war and there won't be significant draft compensation. And Tomlin would have no interest going to those failed franchises because it will bury his waning HOF chances.

Disagree.

Tomlin will not go to a rebuilding team like the Raiders or Browns.

Once again, despite quoting me you've pretended to disagree with something I already said. I even bolded it for you.

My bad, I must have stopped reading after you said Tomlin would go to the Browns or Raiders which yes, is ridiculous.

[K_C_]

The ring Tomlin won with Cowher’s players along with then going back to the Super Bowl a few years later likely makes Tomlin a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.

And yet NO ONE thinks Mike McCarthy is a HOFer...and he has a better playoff record than Tomlin, and I'm pretty sure has even won a playoff game in the last decade.

McCarthy got fired and doesn’t have the NHALS to fall back on.

[langer]

I really feel like I let Coach down, I wasn't defending him good enough on Facebook. I failed as a Coach T fan, and as an ally for Coach.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

The point is that Rich Kotite would eventually win a SB if he had a slightly above average team and an owner that kept rehiring him. Tomlin won the game of large numbers more than a SB which was the result of two miraculous plays against a 9-7 team.

[.Kodiak]

My bad, I must have stopped reading after you said Tomlin would go to the Browns or Raiders which yes, is ridiculous.

Well, I never said that, either. You have an extreme problem with reading comprehension.

[CKSteeler]

The ring Tomlin won with Cowher’s players along with then going back to the Super Bowl a few years later likely makes Tomlin a shoe in for the Hall of Fame.

And yet NO ONE thinks Mike McCarthy is a HOFer...and he has a better playoff record than Tomlin, and I'm pretty sure has even won a playoff game in the last decade.

McCarthy got fired and doesn’t have the NHALS to fall back on.

Well, there's one other difference, too, but some don't like to talk about that...