Why did we go for 2?

[jeemie]

Kicking does decrease your odds of losing in regulation in the odd-score scenarios. In exchange for this, you increase your chance of losing in regulation in the even score scenarios, and decrease your chance of winning in regulation in the odd scenarios. Cancel stuff out, and you want to trade a chance to win in regulation for increased chances of overtime and/or losing in regulation. That is not a good trade.

Why are you assuming there are more even-score than odd-score scenarios with 6:15 left in the third quarter?

Now, in point of fact, there were four more scores the rest of the game...the Steelers scored one more TD and two more FGs, while the Cardinals scored one more FG.

However, there were, in fact, SEVEN more scoring drives until the Steelers went into victory formation.

Three Steelers' possessions which ended in scores....FG...FG...TD (the second FG resulted as well because Haley/Tomlin kind of playing "give-up" by running on 3rd and 6...in essence negating their earlier aggressiveness with more conservative play).

Four Cardinals' possessions which ended with a punt, FG, interception, and turnover on downs.

Why should I assume that an odd number of scoring drives with 21:15 left in the game was significantly less likely than an even number of scoring drives?

The fact of the matter remains- going for two points introduced scenarios where FG exchanges could beat you...scenarios that would not exist had you kicked the XP.

[Mick]

Kicking does decrease your odds of losing in regulation in the odd-score scenarios. In exchange for this, you increase your chance of losing in regulation in the even score scenarios, and decrease your chance of winning in regulation in the odd scenarios. Cancel stuff out, and you want to trade a chance to win in regulation for increased chances of overtime and/or losing in regulation. That is not a good trade.

Why are you assuming there are more even-score than odd-score scenarios with 6:15 left in the third quarter?

Now, in point of fact, there were four more scores the rest of the game...the Steelers scored one more TD and two more FGs, while the Cardinals scored one more FG.

However, there were, in fact, SEVEN more scoring drives until the Steelers went into victory formation.

Three Steelers' possessions which ended in scores....FG...FG...TD (the second FG resulted as well because Haley/Tomlin kind of playing "give-up" by running on 3rd and 6...in essence negating their earlier aggressiveness with more conservative play).

Four Cardinals' possessions which ended with a punt, FG, interception, and turnover on downs.

Why should I assume that an odd number of scoring drives with 21:15 left in the game was significantly less likely than an even number of scoring drives?

The fact of the matter remains- going for two points introduced scenarios where FG exchanges could beat you...scenarios that would not exist had you kicked the XP.

i didn't say evens were more likely.

Just that even scenarios are relevant, and in them going for two was objectively better.
Where in the odd scenarios, we have just the subjective "trying to decide game in regulation vs playing for overtime" decision. Which from the numbers, is pretty arbitrary.

Your argument seems to be "if you ignore all the scenarios where going for two was clearly superior, you are left with a few scenarios where it's a gut call. and my gut call would have gone the other way."

[jeemie]

Your argument seems to be "if you ignore all the scenarios where going for two was clearly superior, you are left with a few scenarios where it's a gut call. and my gut call would have gone the other way."

No- my argument is going for two increases the odds of losing in regulation when taking all scenarios into account.

I will do some calculations on this- I am always willing to be proved wrong.

[Legacy User]

In the middle of the third quarter, I think it's really silly to assume a 3-point lead is more important than a 50% chance at a 4-point lead.

You're playing at home, with a QB who just threw for more yards in 1/8 of a drive than your starter had thrown for all game, and he just threw a TD pass to give you your first lead. I've got no problem taking a shot at going for 2 with 20+ minutes left to play.