Relative value of QB

[Kodiak.]

Normally you NEED to draft difference makers in R1, and also preferably R2.

So let's run with the assumption that Pickett has a high floor / low ceiling. Better than a bridge QB, but still no better than middle of the pack QB. Call him "Baker Mayfield-class".

Arguably the toughest or most important position in sports, this is where "relative" value comes in. Is a potential upgrade over a Rudolph/Trubisky who aren't viewed as starters but to something less than a franchise QB good relative value? Even a mediocre starter is a big upgrade over a career back-up (at best, in the case of Rudolph). The gulf is conceivably as large as a long shot SB winner vs. sub-500 and not sniffing the playoffs.
- is that scenario a good use of an R1 pick? Not making the playoffs vs. a guy you can potentially carry to a SB? Hmmm, seems like good value.

But, as seen with Baker Mayfield (and a few others), a year or two of growing pains and then maybe you can stomach a 5th year option before letting a mediocre QB walk. Now we're talking maybe 2 years (out of 5) of realized value like mentioned above.
- is that scenario a good use of an R1 pick? Kind of sounds like an easy "no". If you have a real window open, you do what CLE did, or at least DEN and go all-in on the sure thing that guarantees you a 3-4 year window.


And I suppose that's where I land. You spent an R1 on a guy who might give you one or two outside shots at a SB if all the other stars align in the next few years. A lot of uncertainties and unknowns in there which is why many people felt it was too soon to spend premium draft capital on a QB. And, yes, the overall crapshoot makes this kind of an exercise in mental masturbation. An R1 or R2 pick that doesn't earn a second contract is a 100% whiff, because basically there's no price worth bringing him back on. You have to upgrade the position. Not trying to debate if that guy is a QB if it's even more or less of a whiff.



TL;DR.....An R1 pick on Baker Mayfield-types is a set-back. And you already got that guy in FA, for almost nothing, in Trubisky. I want to be hopeful with Pickett, and I'll root for the guy (if Tomlada doesn't make game even more unwatchable). But I simply can't come up with any logic that justifies taking a guy of Pickett's talent before you've even seen Trubisky,.

[Smashmouth21]

Two words: Tom Brady.

QBs are a crapshoot. And pure measurables are vastly overrated at the position. I don’t believe it when anyone says there is a “low ceiling” QB (unless the player is really lacking in the measurables department — in which case I would not even consider taking him in the first place).

Unless you have a franchise QB, you keep taking shots over and over and over again until you land one. The FO loves Pickett. It’s that simple. Let’s see what he has ASAP. If he hits great. If he misses then we get to do it all over again.

[jeemie]

Two words: Tom Brady.

QBs are a crapshoot. And pure measurables are vastly overrated at the position. I don’t believe it when anyone says there is a “low ceiling” QB (unless the player is really lacking in the measurables department — in which case I would not even consider taking him in the first place).

Unless you have a franchise QB, you keep taking shots over and over and over again until you land one. The FO loves Pickett. It’s that simple. Let’s see what he has ASAP. If he hits great. If he misses then we get to do it all over again.

Yep and one of the reasons they love Pickett is he fits the system they are going to run come hell or high water.

[franco32]

A Rd 1 Pick 20 lottery ticket on a QB doesn't bother me. I get the whole thing about waiting for next year, but we just don't know. We punched a ticket and we get to see.

Multiple draft picks on a QB would bother me a lot unless you were Andrew Luck certain that a player was elite...and even then it didn't work out because of injuries.

[SteelerDayTrader]

I think Pickett could be good enough with a great defense and run game

The Steelers have HUGE holes at NT ILB and SS

Their D won’t work without top level production at those positions

I can’t remember a time the Steelers 3-4 were legitimate Lombardi contenders without a significant draft investment in those 3 positions

[Havoc]

My one fear was the Steelers would draft a QB with a skillset similar to Trubisky. Maybe that's not the case. I thought the Bears were stupid to move up in the draft to take Trubisky #2 overall.

Desperate teams reaching for the QB position has to skew the landing a franchise QB % to some degree. So do poor GMs.

I probably would have been more intrigued with Willis.

Having said all that...

Drafting a 1st round QB makes this season and the team a lot more interesting. There is something to be said for taking a shot at it and add to that we didn't have to give up any additional draft picks. Maybe Pickett will be Montana2.

[955876]

The Steelers have HUGE holes at NT ILB and SS

Certainly shaping up to be a defensive heavy draft next year.

We aren’t contending this year anyways with all the QB uncertainty.

The oline, QB, WRs corps, and backup RBs should be all sorted and ready to compete next year, the year after.

They will go heavy D next year.

Will see if we actually develop this QB or turn him into a hand-off monkey running a horizontal offense.

[jebrick]

A Rd 1 Pick 20 lottery ticket on a QB doesn't bother me. I get the whole thing about waiting for next year, but we just don't know. We punched a ticket and we get to see.

Multiple draft picks on a QB would bother me a lot unless you were Andrew Luck certain that a player was elite...and even then it didn't work out because of injuries.

If Levis or McCall is within reach next year and we are shackled with Pickett, i will be pissed.

[cop1211]

What’s done is done, now we sit back and see what happens.
I was in the no QB camp this year, that they should have built the team up, and just gave Trubisky the ball and said here’s your chance to prove it, or not.
If it were me drafting this year my picks would have been:
1.S Dax Hill
2.DT Travis Jones
3.WR Danny Gray
4.WR Austin

[Kodiak.]

What’s done is done, now we sit back and see what happens.

True. However, the fact that average [read: mediocre] doesn't cut it at QB means even a good pick (only like 16 guys at any given time can play at a satisfactory NFL-level) is rather sub-optimal.

If a team is good and efficient at QB eval, then it's 2-3 years to cut bait. The fact that a team can absorb extending an R1 misfire like Edmunds, but not a Baker Mayfield, makes missing on an R1 QB an even bigger failure.

The reason playing the QB lottery fucks so many teams is because there's no middle ground - it's the most difficult position to be competent at, while also the singular position where "competent" isn't normally nearly good enough. And it's also the position most difficult to project from college.

Just imagine the Bush deal but for Pickett. That's the chaotic failure you flirt with every time you wade into the QB lottery.

[jebrick]

You mess up you assumption in that Pickett is high ceiling low floor pick. That is normally a boom-bust. Pickett was the safe choice. Low ceiling high floor. At best you have Trubisky. Average means he is a Geno Smith type backup in the league for 5-8 years.

[bradshaw2ben]

Two words: Tom Brady.

QBs are a crapshoot. And pure measurables are vastly overrated at the position. I don’t believe it when anyone says there is a “low ceiling” QB (unless the player is really lacking in the measurables department — in which case I would not even consider taking him in the first place).

Unless you have a franchise QB, you keep taking shots over and over and over again until you land one. The FO loves Pickett. It’s that simple. Let’s see what he has ASAP. If he hits great. If he misses then we get to do it all over again.

Stop using extreme outliers as examples! Sure, let's collect all 6th round picks, because Tom Brady & AB are awesome.

Qbs aren't as much of a crapshoot as everyone is trained to beleive. What is misguided is taking mediocre QBs because they're the only ones available. If you only draft QBs who are or soon have a chance to be elite, then the hit rate would be a hell of a lot better. There's absolutely no point in drafting a QB whose potential year 3 ceiling isn't Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers. That is the standard teams should be using when deciding if they should draft a QB. Instead, they're like, "Is he better than Mason Rudolph?" You can sign a QB who is better than Mason Rudolph off the street every offseason. There's no reason to waste a 1st round pick on that.

I think guys like Pickett have a short shelf life as a starter. He might have a good run in him-- could be a year or two, even. But once he gets schemed into oblivion, he'll revert to being a career backup. I don't think he'll be a total flop, so if all the stars aligned, I could see him being just good enough to become a purgatory QB, where they'd be inclined to pay him C$2.

[Quixotic]

A Rd 1 Pick 20 lottery ticket on a QB doesn't bother me. I get the whole thing about waiting for next year, but we just don't know. We punched a ticket and we get to see.

Multiple draft picks on a QB would bother me a lot unless you were Andrew Luck certain that a player was elite...and even then it didn't work out because of injuries.

I feel strongly both ways. In hindsight, Trevor Lawrence seemed as much of a sure thing as Andrew Luck. And maybe he will be. But THAT PICK doesn’t make you THAT TEAM.

Sure, there is one Tom Brady in maybe 75 years. A guy who falls to the seventh round and then turns out to be MAYBE the GOAT (and certainly the right guy for a system that runs like a machine, is driven by a statistical genius, and is willing to cheat to gain an advantage). Most of the time, you’re gambling on the best guy you can get, when you need a guy. Who here would have taken Ben over the two guys taken ahead of him. I certainly wouldn’t have. Nevertheless…

Kenny Picket looks to me more like the product of risk aversion (the guy least likely to screw it up) than swinging for the fence (the guy who might just change everything). I’m not sure you use a first round pick to avoid screwing it up. Especially with Trubisky already in the room. Mitch was a great free agency pickup, precisely because he can do for us what Picket is likely to be able to do for us, thus buying us 1-3 years to find the guy worth betting the farm on.

One thing is for sure—the next Ben or Bradshaw is not in the room at the moment. And even Ben—whom I consider the best Steeler quarterback ever—only got us to three Superbowls in 18 years, and only won 2. Which is great. But if that’s the legacy of the greatest ever to wear the B&G, I don’t hold out a lot of hope for Kenny Picket.

[bradshaw2ben]

A Rd 1 Pick 20 lottery ticket on a QB doesn't bother me. I get the whole thing about waiting for next year, but we just don't know. We punched a ticket and we get to see.

Multiple draft picks on a QB would bother me a lot unless you were Andrew Luck certain that a player was elite...and even then it didn't work out because of injuries.

If Levis or McCall is within reach next year and we are shackled with Pickett, i will be pissed.

Cameron Ward & Tyler Van Dyke could be added to that list, as well.

[franco32]

I don't think anyone is saying that Pickett is going to be some HOF type QB. But, if he plays his cards right and works hard, he could be a very very good QB for us.

Of course he's not going to carry the team to Superbowls and win them without offensive lines. That's Big Ben stuff. But, with the right cast around him, I think we can do some damage.

I just don't think spending a 1.20 on a QB is the end of the world. Sure we may miss out on the 23 class, but we still will have the 24 and 25 classes. It isn't a franchise crusher IMO. A franchise crusher is trading up for Malik Willis, spending a ton of draft capital and then waiting 2-3 years before he can even start and figure out he isn't the guy. That's the killer right there.

[Kodiak.]

I think I agree with B2B in that you only spend premium picks on a guy with a very high ceiling. If Pickett isn't that guy, it doesn't really matter if he's BPA at a position of need on your board. That just doesn't work with QB, because you really can't play average at QB and it's horrid ROI if you pay that C2.

"NFL Ready" and "High Floor" shouldn't really even enter into the conversation for QB - those are NOT positive attributes. It can work at other positions, but Larry Foote types at QB don't.

[Smashmouth21]

Two words: Tom Brady.

QBs are a crapshoot. And pure measurables are vastly overrated at the position. I don’t believe it when anyone says there is a “low ceiling” QB (unless the player is really lacking in the measurables department — in which case I would not even consider taking him in the first place).

Unless you have a franchise QB, you keep taking shots over and over and over again until you land one. The FO loves Pickett. It’s that simple. Let’s see what he has ASAP. If he hits great. If he misses then we get to do it all over again.

Stop using extreme outliers as examples! Sure, let's collect all 6th round picks, because Tom Brady & AB are awesome.

Qbs aren't as much of a crapshoot as everyone is trained to beleive. What is misguided is taking mediocre QBs because they're the only ones available. If you only draft QBs who are or soon have a chance to be elite, then the hit rate would be a hell of a lot better. There's absolutely no point in drafting a QB whose potential year 3 ceiling isn't Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers. That is the standard teams should be using when deciding if they should draft a QB. Instead, they're like, "Is he better than Mason Rudolph?" You can sign a QB who is better than Mason Rudolph off the street every offseason. There's no reason to waste a 1st round pick on that.

I think guys like Pickett have a short shelf life as a starter. He might have a good run in him-- could be a year or two, even. But once he gets schemed into oblivion, he'll revert to being a career backup. I don't think he'll be a total flop, so if all the stars aligned, I could see him being just good enough to become a purgatory QB, where they'd be inclined to pay him C$2.

I don’t think you read/understood my post at all. I’m not saying collect high draft picks. I’m saying you are wrong in suggesting only some types of QBs are high ceiling. There are many ways to be an elite QB. Think Brady, Brees, Burrow, etc. as examples of guys who most would not call “tools” players but are Franchise type QBs. Then think of all the elite traits bust types there are. Russell, Boller, Young, etc. I can name a ton on both sides of the ledger. If you have a preference for one type over the other that’s OK but to suggest the others have some kind of ceiling is just wrong.

[Kodiak.]

I think B2B is saying it's rare for a guy to be an elite NFL QB and not show that potential in college.

I'd have to do an analysis because I could be completely off base, but it seems like most of your elite NFL QB's go in the top-11 of the draft.

Because then the logical next question is what's the success rate taking a QB as you go deeper into the draft? Not suggesting it is or should be R6, but would be interesting to see what the odds look like at #20 vs, say, #80.

[yygy]

I actually liked mayfield coming over. Think he’s a good qb if reckless at times. I mean come on the browns. He’d of fit the Steelers well.

Some really trubisky is going to have a Kurt Warner type turnaround. I don’t see it. I didn’t watch every game of his but the ones I did I saw a very inconsistent quarterback. Maybe it’s his time but likely he hit his ceiling years ago.

Steelers had 3 R1 qb grades. Pickett was their main guy clearly. They told trubisky if he was there they’d draft him.

Would be great to see a really close competition. Think Pickett might nab it but little early to say.

[Kodiak.]

Steelers had 3 R1 qb grades.

OK, that plus Rudolph = they have no fucking clue.

[steelclan]

Steelers had 3 R1 qb grades.

OK, that plus Rudolph = they have no fucking clue.

If we used this as a standard for all positions it would mean no NFL team had a clue. Teams use that phrase to hype up their picks. It happens all the time and using one example to make a universal statement? Is shortsighted.

"Can you believe we got this guy in round 3! We had a 1st round grade on him!"

[Mick]

I think B2B is saying it's rare for a guy to be an elite NFL QB and not show that potential in college.

I'd have to do an analysis because I could be completely off base, but it seems like most of your elite NFL QB's go in the top-11 of the draft.

Because then the logical next question is what's the success rate taking a QB as you go deeper into the draft? Not suggesting it is or should be R6, but would be interesting to see what the odds look like at #20 vs, say, #80.

the top 10 qbs by wins all time were drafted:
199, 33, 1, 32, 11, 1, 27, 24, 4, 34. So not really dominated by top 11 guys as you suggest.

The 11-20 guys are more split, with five top 3 picks (eli, bradshaw, bledsoe, and alex smith were the 1’s; not really the elitist wing of this elite group) and four guys drafted 75th or later.

Not really sure what is meant by “showing greatness potential in college”, other than ‘B2B likes his tape.’ If Pickett turns out to be great, everyone will point to how obvious and 100% predictable that was based on his college tape and statistical breakdown.

[Kodiak.]

Not really sure what is meant by “showing greatness potential in college”, other than ‘B2B likes his tape.’

It took me only a few games in the NFL to see the real potential of Roethlisberger and Rudolph. I remember O'Donnell coming off the bench in one game and thinking "this guy needs to start". I seriously doubt if I watched a ton of college tape on them I'd have a different opinion. Finding a guy with "it" is a crapshoot, but I think people like B2B would probably grade well projecting guys that definitely aren't franchise QB's.

Not saying the guy needs to be a HOFer, but when you include sure-fire guys like Rodgers and Mahomes, and other current guys who are borderline (Eli, maybe Stafford now) or project well (Burrow, Allen). I added them to HOFers going back to 1960:
- 19 out of 34 went in top14.
- 2 went in the bottom half of R1
- 3 went in R2
- 4 went in R3
- 6 went after R3 (4 undrafted).

I've got to fill out my rankings some more for guys like maybe a McMahon or Palmer. I think there's maybe another 15 to add to that group which over 60+ years is close to a theoretical "top-10" in any given year (with most of these guys starting for 10-12 years). And then it's that next group of Andy Dalton's and Baker Mayfield's that aren't worthy of R1 picks because they aren't really good enough for a C2.

One other quick nugget since 1960:
- 105 taken in top-14
- 38 more in R1.....
So 5.3% success vs. 18.1%. That's a pretty dramatic difference. That may be skewed by guys taken 4th/5th etc., but it does strongly suggest teams aren't just throwing darts.
- 69 went in R2 (4.4%)
- 84 went in R3 (4.8%)


Pickett being the first QB taken might be reason to be more optimistic, but the data is shaping up to suggest success rates with guys in R2 and R3 are very close to the bottom half of R1. The exercise isn't complete, but this is exactly what I was suspecting. You're trying to get at least a Rivers or Andrew Luck, while avoiding a Baker Mayfield.

Starting to prove the point I think. You really need your R1/R2 picks to start 8+ years, so a late R1/R2 pick on QB is probably not the best use of draft capital when you're just as likely to find that guy in R3.

[jebrick]

Mahomes was not considered a sure fire QB out of college. He was considered developmental but with a high ceiling.

[Kodiak.]

LOL you might remember the 7th QB taken in the 2000 draft, but what about the first 6?

1st QB taken, R1 #18 overall: Chad Pennington
2nd QB taken, R3 #65 overall : Giovanni Carmazzi
........................R3 #75 overall: Chris Redman
........................R5 #163 overall: Tee Martin
........................R6 #168 overall: Marc Bulger
........................R6 #183 overall: Spergon Wynn

[bradshaw2ben]

Mahomes was not considered a sure fire QB out of college. He was considered developmental but with a high ceiling.

Same with Favre.

But for me? Night and day. 10 minutes of watching Mahomes in college and I was like-- anybody who doesn't think this guy is the best player in the draft has forgotten what a HOF QB looks like Teams get so enamored with polish and "protecting the football" and "running the offense" as intended. Those guys always get overdrafted. Wild stallions like Mahomes, Josh Allen, Favre, Roethlisberger... they get underdrafted. Teams are desperate for that stupid high floor QB. They're trying to keep their jobs by making their bad teams mediocre; I'm SB or bust. That's a luxury on my part but I'm going to be more successful at prioritizing high-ceiling guys than the average NFL franchise

[Kodiak.]

Some good news? Doug Williams won a SB!!!!

List of 1st QB's taken after the top-half of R1:
Kenny Pickett
Steve Pisarkiewicz
Doug Williams
Bernie Kosar
Jim Druckenmiller
Chad Pennington
Danny White (R3)
Tom Tupa (R3)
Tony Banks (R2)

[lifelongsteel]

I wonder if a non elite vet QB could win if they were paid a reasonable rate. For some reason when you get deemed a franchise QB, even if you are the 12th-18th best QB in the league (i'm looking at you Kirk Cousins), you are entitled to pretty much the same money as Rodgers etc.

Maybe you find a Baker on a 5 yr $50M deal and use the $40M in QB savings to really build the roster. Could be interesting.

[franco32]

I think the point some of us are trying to make is that the supposed ceiling is not always the real ceiling. I'm not even going to get into Tom Brady. But, history shows us that perceived ceilings aren't always accurate.

Joe Montana, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson all were supposed to have limited ceilings because of physical traits. But, in the end, it comes down to processing quickly and being accurate with just enough of an arm or better.

I think Kenny is accurate. He certainly uses the whole field. I don't think his processing is at an elite level at this point. It certainly grew this year. So, again, a higher ceiling is possible than what is the "maximum predicted ceiling". We shall see.

[Kodiak.]

Maybe you find a Baker on a 5 yr $50M deal and use the $40M in QB savings to really build the roster. Could be interesting.

I think you're onto something. Baker + Cam Heyward + Minkah > Aaron Rodgers.

Especially if you consider the rules are compressing the relative value of the elite QB's. And with so many talented QB's now, playing great defense and running the ball might be a championship strategy, but that may not be possible in today's game.