Steven Sims returns

[Texas Black & Gold]

I didn't get a chance to ask in the game thread.

Did Sims run out of gas on that kick return or was the other guy so much faster than him? As I was watching him run I thought he was going all the way.

[Jobu]

If you look at Sims combine and Pro Day times, he’s a 4.55-4.6 guy. That’s not slow, but he’s not a burner either. My guess is the chasing Buc is just faster.

[K_C_]

He probably ran out of gas but when I re-watched it, I honestly think Sims let up a bit.

Sims would never admit it but I think Sims believed he was in the free and clear and that's also why he damn near fumbled.

[Texas Black & Gold]

He probably ran out of gas but when I re-watched it, I honestly think Sims let up a bit.

Sims would never admit it but I think Sims believed he was in the free and clear and that's also why he damn near fumbled.

That's true he probably didn't see the Buc player catching up to him and he relaxed.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

[K_C_]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

[o'donnell]

Sims was huge yesterday for sure. That buck just had way more long speed than him. Dunno who it was, but he was truckin past everyone to get there.

[Thrillsseeker]

I believe the two that caught him are starting corners on the Bucs D. Mentioned on the broadcast.

Nice to see the spark vs another fumble ala Gunner.

[kramer]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

How can you possibly know this with confidence? Those returns against Tampa might be his only good returns of the whole year

[Pabst]

I believe the two that caught him are starting corners on the Bucs D. Mentioned on the broadcast.

Nice to see the spark vs another fumble ala Gunner.

Yep. Jamel Dean is the one who caught him (I don't think Carlton Davis would have gotten there).

Dean can fucking fly. He ran a 4.31 at the combine.

[K_C_]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

How can you possibly know this with confidence? Those returns against Tampa might be his only good returns of the whole year

Name Gunner’s impressive returns.

Yeah. I thought so……

Sims was also very impressive in the preseason on returns and should have had the job game one.

When he breaks his next return, which will be soon, we’ll revisit this thread.

[bradshaw2ben]

I believe the two that caught him are starting corners on the Bucs D. Mentioned on the broadcast.

Nice to see the spark vs another fumble ala Gunner.

This. And they are both studs.

[Thrillsseeker]

I believe the two that caught him are starting corners on the Bucs D. Mentioned on the broadcast.

Nice to see the spark vs another fumble ala Gunner.

This. And they are both studs.

Yeah. No complaints from me. 89yd KO returns aren’t seen from our team too often. Loved it! If he gets caught from behind, its still better than all the slow 250lb plodders we’ve watched return over the years.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

So you are going on record that you want Simms to return balls from the end zone versus taking the 25 yard gift?

[K_C_]

Now can we expect to start on the 13 yard line for the next several kickoffs if they kick it into the end zone?

The best play when the ball sniffs the end zone is to take your 25 yards and get on offense.

The only thing that comes out of a kick return is a turnover, penalty, injury or all of the above.

If they kick short of the end zone I have no problem with a return obviously, but no special teams coach should every green light a run out of the end zone at this point with the rules.

The best kick returner in the NFL last year averaged 32. Just not worth it.

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

So you are going on record that you want Simms to return balls from the end zone versus taking the 25 yard gift?

ABSOLUTELY!!!

[LakecrestSteeler]

Sims isn’t Gunner. He has both speed and wiggle.

That kickoff return (and his punt return) were huge plays in the game and gave us momentum.

Those won’t be Sims’ last big returns.

So you are going on record that you want Simms to return balls from the end zone versus taking the 25 yard gift?

ABSOLUTELY!!!

The stats say otherwise!

[LakecrestSteeler]

@K_C_ This was the most recent analysis I could find that says it is not a sound decision to take it out of the end zone. I assume the trends are the same. Maybe someone could find a newer article that looks at the last 5 years.

_________________________________________

To Return or Not to Return

February 19, 2019, 9:58 pm ET

Guest column by Jack Duffin

During the Week 8 matchup between Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams, Packers returner Ty Montgomery ran a kickoff out of the end zone. He proceeded to fumble the ball away, costing Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in the league, what could have been a game-winning drive. While the team had instructed Montgomery to take a touchback, he decided he knew best and took a risk that backfired, and led to Green Bay trading him. Inspired by Montgomery, I wanted to look much deeper into whether teams should ever take the risk of running the ball out of the end zone on kickoffs, and whether the risk is worth the reward.

In both 2016 and 2018 the rules in the NFL regarding kickoffs changed, and questions were raised over how teams would react. With touchbacks moved to the 25-yard line (As of 2016), why would teams ever leave the end zone when they could get a free 25 yards without having to make a play? I looked up every kickoff during the 2018 regular season that was returned out of the end zone to see how successful teams were. I have used the data from NFL.com's play-by-play game center. I included all the plays that landed 1 yard or more into the end zone and were returned. I am also measuring each play by the yard line to which the ball was returned, not the distance of the return. If a ball is caught 3 yards deep in the end zone and recorded as 22-yard return, this means the ball is spotted at the 19-yard line, and that's what I'm looking at. I'm not interested in how far the ball has travelled, only where it ended.

I measured 251 kickoffs that were returned out of the end zone during the 2018 season; the results are in the table below. The aim of every return at a minimum is to get to at least the 26-yard line, as you can get to the 25-yard line just by taking a knee. Unfortunately, NFL teams only managed to make the 26-yard line on 29.3 percent of their attempts in 2018. This means that in the vast majority of cases, teams would have been better suited taking the touchback for the free 25 yards.

There were actually 256 kickoffs that were returned out of the end zone in 2018. Of these I have excluded four that were either the final or penultimate play in the half; teams might have treated those differently, as a big return might have given them a chance to score and field position wasn't as important. I also excluded one attempt during the Week 5 game between the Rams and Seahawks as the kick resulted in a flag and was then retaken. For penalties on the receiving team, I measured the return to the point at which the infringement occurred. For penalties on the kicking team, I measured the point where the return finished, not where the foul took place. I wanted to do everything I could to minimize the impact of penalties, as they can happen on plays where a touchback occurs too.

I separated fumbles into two categories. Fumbles during or directly after the catch where the receiver has regained the ball and made a return have been treated as part of the return yardage. When a fumble has occurred further up the field and the ball has been collected by a teammate or the opposition, the point where the player lost control of the ball has been used as the yardage for the return.


Only five teams (Texans, Jets, Bengals, Buccaneers, Ravens) managed to make the 26-yard line on even 50 percent of their attempts. Four teams (Raiders, Colts, Redskins, Cardinals) failed to make the 26-yard line even once during the season, though the Cardinals were the only team in that four to have more than three attempts. The Raiders had the fewest returns out of the end zone with two, followed by the Colts, Redskins, and Bills with three each. Maybe these teams were quickest to learn that taking a touchback was a sensible strategy?

The Dolphins had 20 returns out of the end zone, most in the league, followed by the Rams, Giants, Chargers, and Falcons. I'm not sure what special teams coordinators are trying to achieve by continuing to do something that isn't working. Maybe if they evaluate a full season of data they will make the right decision to make on a regular basis. Still, sometimes the decision is solely on the player, as we saw with Montgomery.

Average Return
The Jets had the best results on returns out of the end zone, reaching the 31.3-yard line on average. Only nine other teams (Seahawks, Bengals, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers) averaged better than the 25-yard line on returns out of the end zone.

Great Plays
I considered a great play to be a team getting to the 35-yard line -- 10 yards more than what a touchback would have given them. We saw this play achieved eight percent of the time by teams across the entire season, showing the chances of having a great play on a return out of the end zone was very low. Only three teams (Jets, Jaguars, Saints) made the 35-yard line on 25 percent of their attempts.

Houston had interesting results -- they were the most consistent team at getting to the 26, doing so 83 percent of the time, but they didn't reach the 35-yard line even once.

Flipping the Field
I also decided to check how often teams flipped the field by returning the ball to the 50-yard line. I was not expecting this to be happen very often, but this is the sort of thing that would lead me to believe that returns out of the end zone could be worth the risk of losing yardage on some plays, because your chances of scoring on shorter drives would be greatly improved. Only four plays -- two percent of all end zone returns -- managed to get to the halfway point of the field.

Touchdowns vs. Turnovers
The most dramatic possible results of a return on a kick-off are that a team scores a touchdown or turns the ball over. In 2018 we saw one touchdown and three turnovers. The only touchdown scored was by Jakeem Grant of the Miami Dolphins against Tennessee in Week 1. The Packers had two of the turnovers -- the one by Montgomery against the Rams, and one by J'Mon Moore against the Jets in Week 11. The other was suffered by Detroit's Ameer Abdullah, who fumbled the ball away against Seattle in Week 8.

Key Takeaways
I think it is important for all teams to seriously consider whether they should be returning kickoffs out of the end zone. With both the chance of getting to the 26-yard line as low as it is and the average return failing to reach the 25, it would be better to take a knee and start drives as near to the opponent's goal line as possible.

If I was a special teams coordinator, I would want to reach the 26-yard line at least 75 percent of the time, the 35-yard line 25 percent of the time, and midfield 5 percent of the time before I considered taking the ball out of the end zone. None of the 32 NFL teams hit all three of those targets, although each was met by at least one team.

With so little value coming from returns out of the end zone, it wouldn't surprise me if the NFL moves in the future to consider all kicks into the end zone as touchbacks and continue to reduce the amount of returns that occur in the league in an effort to reduce concussions.

It will be interesting to see what the data says in 2019. We have a solid sample of more than 250 plays, but more data would give a better indication of what is happening. The 2019 data will allow us to see if teams change their style this offseason and attempt fewer returns. With the league making changes to increase the amount of scoring, we are likely to see more and more kickoffs, giving teams the chance to make more returns if they want.

[K_C_]

None of those stats mean anything to me at all.

Sims showed this preseason he can bust off some long returns. He had 2 great returns last Sunday.

When you aren't a dynamic offensive team and you have trouble scoring points, big returns can be a major help.

Sims hopefully can provide that and I'll guarantee you that Tomlin is telling Sims to run that fucker out whenever he feels comfortable.

This is a team that lacks the ability to make splash plays. Sims has already paid dividends in that department.

[blu]

None of those stats mean anything to me at all.

Sims showed this preseason he can bust off some long returns. He had 2 great returns last Sunday.

When you aren't a dynamic offensive team and you have trouble scoring points, big returns can be a major help.

Sims hopefully can provide that and I'll guarantee you that Tomlin is telling Sims to run that fucker out whenever he feels comfortable.

This is a team that lacks the ability to make splash plays. Sims has already paid dividends in that department.

Running the ball back far is a team-lifter & an easily a game-changer. If you have a player like Sims who can do it, why would you hold him back regardless of the stats?

[Deebo]

@K_C_ This was the most recent analysis I could find that says it is not a sound decision to take it out of the end zone. I assume the trends are the same. Maybe someone could find a newer article that looks at the last 5 years.

_________________________________________

To Return or Not to Return

February 19, 2019, 9:58 pm ET

Guest column by Jack Duffin

During the Week 8 matchup between Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams, Packers returner Ty Montgomery ran a kickoff out of the end zone. He proceeded to fumble the ball away, costing Aaron Rodgers, one of the best quarterbacks in the league, what could have been a game-winning drive. While the team had instructed Montgomery to take a touchback, he decided he knew best and took a risk that backfired, and led to Green Bay trading him. Inspired by Montgomery, I wanted to look much deeper into whether teams should ever take the risk of running the ball out of the end zone on kickoffs, and whether the risk is worth the reward.

In both 2016 and 2018 the rules in the NFL regarding kickoffs changed, and questions were raised over how teams would react. With touchbacks moved to the 25-yard line (As of 2016), why would teams ever leave the end zone when they could get a free 25 yards without having to make a play? I looked up every kickoff during the 2018 regular season that was returned out of the end zone to see how successful teams were. I have used the data from NFL.com's play-by-play game center. I included all the plays that landed 1 yard or more into the end zone and were returned. I am also measuring each play by the yard line to which the ball was returned, not the distance of the return. If a ball is caught 3 yards deep in the end zone and recorded as 22-yard return, this means the ball is spotted at the 19-yard line, and that's what I'm looking at. I'm not interested in how far the ball has travelled, only where it ended.

I measured 251 kickoffs that were returned out of the end zone during the 2018 season; the results are in the table below. The aim of every return at a minimum is to get to at least the 26-yard line, as you can get to the 25-yard line just by taking a knee. Unfortunately, NFL teams only managed to make the 26-yard line on 29.3 percent of their attempts in 2018. This means that in the vast majority of cases, teams would have been better suited taking the touchback for the free 25 yards.

There were actually 256 kickoffs that were returned out of the end zone in 2018. Of these I have excluded four that were either the final or penultimate play in the half; teams might have treated those differently, as a big return might have given them a chance to score and field position wasn't as important. I also excluded one attempt during the Week 5 game between the Rams and Seahawks as the kick resulted in a flag and was then retaken. For penalties on the receiving team, I measured the return to the point at which the infringement occurred. For penalties on the kicking team, I measured the point where the return finished, not where the foul took place. I wanted to do everything I could to minimize the impact of penalties, as they can happen on plays where a touchback occurs too.

I separated fumbles into two categories. Fumbles during or directly after the catch where the receiver has regained the ball and made a return have been treated as part of the return yardage. When a fumble has occurred further up the field and the ball has been collected by a teammate or the opposition, the point where the player lost control of the ball has been used as the yardage for the return.


Only five teams (Texans, Jets, Bengals, Buccaneers, Ravens) managed to make the 26-yard line on even 50 percent of their attempts. Four teams (Raiders, Colts, Redskins, Cardinals) failed to make the 26-yard line even once during the season, though the Cardinals were the only team in that four to have more than three attempts. The Raiders had the fewest returns out of the end zone with two, followed by the Colts, Redskins, and Bills with three each. Maybe these teams were quickest to learn that taking a touchback was a sensible strategy?

The Dolphins had 20 returns out of the end zone, most in the league, followed by the Rams, Giants, Chargers, and Falcons. I'm not sure what special teams coordinators are trying to achieve by continuing to do something that isn't working. Maybe if they evaluate a full season of data they will make the right decision to make on a regular basis. Still, sometimes the decision is solely on the player, as we saw with Montgomery.

Average Return
The Jets had the best results on returns out of the end zone, reaching the 31.3-yard line on average. Only nine other teams (Seahawks, Bengals, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins, Texans, Saints, Falcons, Buccaneers) averaged better than the 25-yard line on returns out of the end zone.

Great Plays
I considered a great play to be a team getting to the 35-yard line -- 10 yards more than what a touchback would have given them. We saw this play achieved eight percent of the time by teams across the entire season, showing the chances of having a great play on a return out of the end zone was very low. Only three teams (Jets, Jaguars, Saints) made the 35-yard line on 25 percent of their attempts.

Houston had interesting results -- they were the most consistent team at getting to the 26, doing so 83 percent of the time, but they didn't reach the 35-yard line even once.

Flipping the Field
I also decided to check how often teams flipped the field by returning the ball to the 50-yard line. I was not expecting this to be happen very often, but this is the sort of thing that would lead me to believe that returns out of the end zone could be worth the risk of losing yardage on some plays, because your chances of scoring on shorter drives would be greatly improved. Only four plays -- two percent of all end zone returns -- managed to get to the halfway point of the field.

Touchdowns vs. Turnovers
The most dramatic possible results of a return on a kick-off are that a team scores a touchdown or turns the ball over. In 2018 we saw one touchdown and three turnovers. The only touchdown scored was by Jakeem Grant of the Miami Dolphins against Tennessee in Week 1. The Packers had two of the turnovers -- the one by Montgomery against the Rams, and one by J'Mon Moore against the Jets in Week 11. The other was suffered by Detroit's Ameer Abdullah, who fumbled the ball away against Seattle in Week 8.

Key Takeaways
I think it is important for all teams to seriously consider whether they should be returning kickoffs out of the end zone. With both the chance of getting to the 26-yard line as low as it is and the average return failing to reach the 25, it would be better to take a knee and start drives as near to the opponent's goal line as possible.

If I was a special teams coordinator, I would want to reach the 26-yard line at least 75 percent of the time, the 35-yard line 25 percent of the time, and midfield 5 percent of the time before I considered taking the ball out of the end zone. None of the 32 NFL teams hit all three of those targets, although each was met by at least one team.

With so little value coming from returns out of the end zone, it wouldn't surprise me if the NFL moves in the future to consider all kicks into the end zone as touchbacks and continue to reduce the amount of returns that occur in the league in an effort to reduce concussions.

It will be interesting to see what the data says in 2019. We have a solid sample of more than 250 plays, but more data would give a better indication of what is happening. The 2019 data will allow us to see if teams change their style this offseason and attempt fewer returns. With the league making changes to increase the amount of scoring, we are likely to see more and more kickoffs, giving teams the chance to make more returns if they want.

I respect the hell out of analytics, but when you have an offense that's anemic as ours you have to take the risk of a big play over 5 to 10 yards of negative field position

[LakecrestSteeler]

Well hopefully he is the next Hester, but I suspect he just got lucky, not that he is not a good returner, but that there was a breakdown on the coverage or literal kick. Have at it on punts…will be licking my chops, but kick returns I will be bitching on the game thread.

I think you guys are all wrong on this philosophy, and if the Steelers don’t take the 25 yard gift it will spell even more anemia for the offense.

I might remind this thread that not only do you have those stats about kick returns above providing reasons not to do it, but then you get the double stack, that shows how much the odds of scoring go up the closer you get to the opponents goal line.

I don’t think this is the gamble we want to be taking. Starting at the 15 absolutely blows and sets the tone for the whole game, especially on the opening kickoff. Now you have to throw the whole starting script out most likely, because one sack and you are punting out of the end zone.

If we want to gamble, let’s gamble with the QB’s arm or the kicker’s leg. Much better odds.

[Jizz Mop]

None of those stats mean anything to me at all.

Sims showed this preseason he can bust off some long returns. He had 2 great returns last Sunday.

When you aren't a dynamic offensive team and you have trouble scoring points, big returns can be a major help.

Sims hopefully can provide that and I'll guarantee you that Tomlin is telling Sims to run that fucker out whenever he feels comfortable.

This is a team that lacks the ability to make splash plays. Sims has already paid dividends in that department.

Running the ball back far is a team-lifter & an easily a game-changer. If you have a player like Sims who can do it, why would you hold him back regardless of the stats?

I thought Lakecrest analysis was very interesting.

Great return by Sims but those type of returns are rare.

Until Sims, I was fine w starting at 25.

Now?

Still feel that way but Sims does have a much better chance of making something happen than that fucking NE fumbling mole Gunner.

[Jobu]

In 2 seasons and 2 games, Sims has 7 fumbles.
In 3 seasons and 4 games, Olszewski has 8 fumbles.
They both have ball security issues.

[Jizz Mop]

In 2 seasons and 2 games, Sims has 7 fumbles.
In 3 seasons and 4 games, Olszewski has 8 fumbles.
They both have ball security issues.

Noted

Fumbling punts after a good defensive stand is crushing.

[LakecrestSteeler]

In 2 seasons and 2 games, Sims has 7 fumbles.
In 3 seasons and 4 games, Olszewski has 8 fumbles.
They both have ball security issues.

Noted

Fumbling punts is crushing.

Corrected!

[LakecrestSteeler]

None of those stats mean anything to me at all.

Sims showed this preseason he can bust off some long returns. He had 2 great returns last Sunday.

When you aren't a dynamic offensive team and you have trouble scoring points, big returns can be a major help.

Sims hopefully can provide that and I'll guarantee you that Tomlin is telling Sims to run that fucker out whenever he feels comfortable.

This is a team that lacks the ability to make splash plays. Sims has already paid dividends in that department.

Running the ball back far is a team-lifter & an easily a game-changer. If you have a player like Sims who can do it, why would you hold him back regardless of the stats?

I thought Lakecrest analysis was very interesting.

Great return by Sims but those type of returns are rare.

Until Sims, I was fine w starting at 25.

Now?

Still feel that way but Sims does have a much better chance of making something happen than that fucking NE fumbling mole Gunner.

Jack Duffin‘s analysis.

[K_C_]

In 2 seasons and 2 games, Sims has 7 fumbles.
In 3 seasons and 4 games, Olszewski has 8 fumbles.
They both have ball security issues.

One guy looked really explosive on returns with a small sample size.

The other guy looked like Ryan Switzer.

[o'donnell]

Good God I hope we don't return to the days of Ike Taylor and Ricardo Colclough letting kicks and punts clang off their hands. That, added to Clank Johnson's drops would really add to alcohol consumption on Sundays.