Noggin's Notes 7 - Ben(ny) and the Jets

[Legacy User]

It is a very good thing that the Steelers brought their “A” game to last week’s contest. Because it now appears that the AFC North will be a dog fight the entire season. I will go out on a limb and predict we won’t know the division winner until the conclusion of week 17. Every division game is crucial and every conference game is important from this point forward.

To the casual fans, uninformed viewers, and fantasy football nerds this week’s tilt should be a walk in the park for the (currently) high flying Steelers as they face off against the lowly J-E-T-S. But a closer look at the matchups in this game may reveal a different story…

What: 6-3 Pittsburgh Steelers at 1-8 New York Jets

Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ

When: 1:00 PM EST, November 9th, 2014

The New York Jets organization to all intents and purposes is a dumpster fire right now. As with any New York sports team, the media circus facing a losing franchise is almost more entertaining than the product on the field. However, don’t let the off the field distractions fool you – the Jets have some talent on the defensive side of the ball.

Steelers with the ball – run game:

The Jets boast a top ten defense against the run and are currently in the top five in another important metric – yards allowed per carry. They run a 3-4 scheme with Dennis Thurman as their defensive coordinator, but Rex Ryan still has his fingers in the pie on that side of the ball.

The Jets 3-4 success against the run starts with Wilkerson, Harrison, and Richardson up front. These three are a nasty and capable group. Wilkerson has been a beast and will be difficult to block one-on-one. Harrison is a solid 3-4 NT who is tough to root out of the hole. And Richardson has also been very good at the point of attack.

The matchups in the run game this week are very similar to those against the Ravens last week. But considering the cross-pollination between the Ravens and Jets defensive coaching staffs the last several years, that should come as no surprise. It will be tough sledding to pound the ball up the gut against this crew.

Pouncey will probably need help on a number of plays with Harrison; he is too big and strong for 53 to handle by himself on every snap. However, Pouncey has been playing at a very high level the last several weeks, so don’t be surprised if he wins a number of these battles with minimal assistance. I thought Gilbert did a pretty good job last week in the run game all things considered; he and Decastro will have their hands full with Wilkerson this week. I fully expect Wilkerson to truck Decastro on a play or two to stop the back for a loss or no gain. Foster and Beachum had some tough plays last week and Richardson has the quicks and good first step to make Foster whiff on a block. Foster gets in trouble when he misses his first contact and has to reach – he looks like a clumsy dancing bear on those plays.

The Jets LBs are overall a solid group. Davis and Harris will fill the gaps and make a stick on inside runs. Coples and Pace both set the edge very well. Coples is a mountain of a man at OLB and will walk either Spaeth or Miller if they try and single him. I have always liked Pace; he may be getting a bit long in the tooth but he is an instinctive player who always seems to be around the ball.

The Jets troubles in the secondary are well documented. I look for them to play back quite a bit this week and not have a huge impact on the run game. (Please, please, please, Rex load the box with a safety and leave A. Brown one on one on the outside!)

The main goal for the Steelers run game this week is to keep the LBs and Safeties honest; I anticipate a similar performance on the ground to last weeks – just enough to make the D think. This is another game where I like Blount’s more physical style over Bell’s more finesse touch between the tackles.

Steelers with the ball – pass game:

To say that the Jets are struggling against the pass would be an understatement. They have given up more touchdowns through the air and made fewer interceptions than any other NFL team. As a direct result, opposing quarterbacks have an ungodly 112.8 rating against them. However, the Jets D still gets after the quarterback – they have the fifth most sacks in the league.

Wilkerson and Richardson both can win one on one matchups and sack the QB. While the Jets like to mix in the blitz, they are perfectly capable of beating you with a three or four man rush. Beachum will have his hands full as will Gilbert. Expect the TEs to stay in on a number of plays to help with the edge rushers. Foster was beaten badly right across his face on several plays last week. This can not happen repeatedly as nothing is worse than pressure straight up the gut.

Every single one of the Jets LBs has multiple sacks this year – each one of them can close the deal. The Jets have been talking in the media this week about Ben having poor ball security. They would not say it to the press if they did not hear it in the meeting rooms… When they get to Ben this week (and they will several times I am sure) they will be looking to chop at the ball. Ben needs to be aware of this and wrap it up.

The Jets secondary is a train wreck. It looks as if Adams and Williams will get the nod at outside CB with Wilson in the slot. Pryor and Landry will play at safety, but I expect that Allen gets some snaps as well.
It goes without saying that none of these guys can blanket cover Brown or Bryant or Wheaton. However, what they can do is hope for timely pressure on Ben and play smart in their zones. The very worst thing the Steelers can do in this game is get sloppy with the ball and give up cheap points or field position.

I anticipate the biggest mismatch in the Steelers favor, however, will be Bell out of the backfield. The Jets will be so worried about getting coverage over the top of the big three WRs that I anticipate some large gaps in the middle of the field and in the flats. Ben won’t throw for 500 yards or get six TDs this week, but there will be plays to be had – especially in the underneath zones.

Jets with the ball – run game:

The Jets are top five in the league in rushing by virtually any statistic you would like to examine. One reason the Jets are good at running is because they do it so often; they are top five in the league in rushing attempts per game as well. Ivory and longtime Titan Johnson share the load at RB, and FB John Conner likes to terminate LBs at the point of attack. (Sorry, I had to do it!) Chris Johnson is not as nearly as fast as he once was, but he is still capable of breaking off a 30 or 40-yarder if the Steelers lose gap control. Vick is a shadow of his former self, but can still hurt you with his legs – he averages almost seven yards per carry.

The Jet O-line is mean and nasty and would love to punch the Steelers in the throat and steal their lunch money. Ferguson at Left Tackle is very, very good. He is less of a road grader and more of a consummate technician. However, Deebo is playing like his hair is on fire. He was everywhere last week. But can his 36 year old body produce like that two weeks in a row? I think the key to keeping him fresh has been Moats rotating in at key times. I won’t lie – I was not impressed with Moats at all to start the season, but something seems to have clicked for him. Maybe seeing Deebo benching 400 plus pounds every day has him playing scared… Whatever it takes! I call this matchup a draw with a slight edge to the Steelers.

Aboushi at LG is athletic and moves well (he was a left tackle in college) and can get to the second level; he could cause some issues for Timmons/Spence/Williams if he does not need to help any of his line mates. Mangold is a high quality center. However, I was absolutely pleased as punch with McClendon’s play last week. I think McClendon will command the double team on several plays which will help out the ILBs of the Steelers immeasurably.

We all remember and love our friend Willie Colon at RG. I was never a fan of his, but he has been in the league and making bank for nine years, so that shows you what I know... Willie reminds me a little bit of Yanda in that he has a nasty streak a mile wide. He brings the filthy on every play. The Steelers mainly need to avoid being provoked by the Colon into a cheap retaliatory type penalty. I am not a fan of Giacomini at RT as a run blocker – I like this matchup for Woirlds setting the edge against him. He is a very finesse run blocker and can be beat with a pure power.

In summary, the Jets are going to grind with the run. They will have some success as well. I fully expect over 100 yards on the ground. The key is to get stops in the red zone and hold them to 3 instead of 7.

Jets with the ball – pass game:

Michael Vick actually had a solid game against KC last week. He actually showed some patience and discipline in the pocket. Decker and Harvin are not bad receivers – both can hurt you if you are not careful in your coverages. Cumberland and Amaro are both pedestrian at TE, but if you leave them wide open (see the second Cleveland game) they will make you pay.

The key to controlling Vick is to pressure him but to pressure him under control. He is still fast enough to pick up a third and long if you rush him without lane discipline. Ferguson will not give up much pressure one on one. However, if the Steelers get the stunt game going like they did last week Deebo could get some pressure by moving around. Aboushi will typically handle stunts fairly well with his LT feet, though. I look for Mangold to hold his own against the rush as well. The place to get pressure against the Jets O-line is on the right side. Colon could easily give up a sack or two, and I believe Woirlds can beat Giacomini back to the inside if he over sets for the speed rush to the outside.

The Steeler secondary will be more disciplined with Allen playing in place of Troy. This actually may be a blessing in disguise, because against this team you want to play smart assignment football rather than to guess…

Special Teams:

Last week I warned of the danger of the Ravens return game – I hate to be right about those sorts of things. The Steelers return game is still atrocious. The Jets return game is respectable and Harvin makes it even better. The Jets kickers are as good if not better than those of the Steelers. Advantage New York.

Coaching:

Rex Ryan is a football genius – edge to the Jets.

Conclusion:

Todd Haley believes in ju-ju. I believe in ju-ju. Therefore…

Jets 24
Steelers 23

[Stosh-67]

Still noggin em out of the park. Great work.

[Legacy User]

Still noggin em out of the park.

I see what you did there...



Thank you for the kind words sir.

[Legacy User]

Why should I consider the Jets' coaching to be superior to the Steelers'?

[Legacy User]

Why should I consider the Jets' coaching to be superior to the Steelers'?

Don't mess with the ju-ju!

See the Noggin's Notes coaching sections for the last two weeks, sir.

[Stosh-67]

Thought I saw jets nt Harrison come off the field with an injury last week.....
Anyone see an update?

[Legacy User]

Solid work Noggin!

[Legacy User]

Thought I saw jets nt Harrison come off the field with an injury last week.....
Anyone see an update?

He is not on the injury report, and he is not listed as missing any practice so I am assuming he is going to play Sunday.

[Orangesteel]

Solid work, noggin.

U live in Seattle?

[beerbrother]

Quality Read.

Thanks for your work.

[Legacy User]

quality work Noggin

Love the title

Here's Elton as a young man, and then again as an old man

Amazing that he still sounds good all those years later...


[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vLlpJc9mW0[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hX5fRbsmE8[/youtube]

[jebrick]

I hope McClullers gets a hat this week. THe Jets are going to try to grind out the run to keep the ball away from Ben and the offense. Stopping the run is a high high high priority.

[Legacy User]

Nice job, Noggin.

I didn't bother to watch the Jets on rewind this week. So I just have a couple games and highlights and can't really add anything much.

The Jets don't have anything to lose, a Ryan is a Ryan, I expect them to take there chances and blitz nearly every snap on defense. 6 and 7 guys on the early downs. With there secondary, record, and playing at home it almost makes sense.

I was setting up my fantasy plays and I did notice Vick targetted Harvin and Decker over 10 times a piece last week so I expect they will get there share of touches. I think a steady diet of Ivory on the inside and stretch right is in the cards though. Amaro is playing pretty well for a rookie and the TE down field has been a problem.

I think it's going to be a pretty balanced offense with more deep shots then usual. Constant pressure on defense.

I'm a Tomlin fan, but he pisses far to many road games away to the dregs of the NFL. I'm more nervous then I should be.

[Legacy User]

Nice job, Noggin.

I didn't bother to watch the Jets on rewind this week. So I just have a couple games and highlights and can't really add anything much.

The Jets don't have anything to lose, a Ryan is a Ryan, I expect them to take there chances and blitz nearly every snap on defense. 6 and 7 guys on the early downs. With there secondary, record, and playing at home it almost makes sense.

I was setting up my fantasy plays and I did notice Vick targetted Harvin and Decker over 10 times a piece last week so I expect they will get there share of touches. I think a steady diet of Ivory on the inside and stretch right is in the cards though. Amaro is playing pretty well for a rookie and the TE down field has been a problem.

I think it's going to be a pretty balanced offense with more deep shots then usual. Constant pressure on defense.

I'm a Tomlin fan, but he pisses far to many road games away to the dregs of the NFL. I'm more nervous then I should be.

Agree with this

EXPECT SPECIAL TEAMS TRICKS

fake punts, onside kick, going for it on 4th down, etc etc

anything to change momentum === Jets literally have nothing to lose by taking a lot of risk

[Jobu]

Jets are going to the Super Bowl. Mark it down.

[Stosh-67]

I hope McClullers gets a hat this week. THe Jets are going to try to grind out the run to keep the ball away from Ben and the offense. Stopping the run is a high high high priority.

He should get a hat...... given the injuries...
With the game day inactives probably looking like....
Troy, shamarko, Ike, shazier......hubbard and laundry Jones.

Big dan gets a hat.......
And yes...... stopping the jets run game will be priority #1 for Steelers defense as running the ball, chewing clock to shorten game will be only way jets can compete

[stillthere]

Just gonna add this here

Steelers-Jets Capsule

PITTSBURGH (6-3) at NEW YORK JETS (1-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

OPENING LINE — Steelers by 2½

RECORD VS. SPREAD — Pittsburgh 5-4, New York 2-7

SERIES RECORD — Steelers lead 19-4

LAST MEETING — Steelers beat Jets 19-6, Oct. 13, 2013

LAST WEEK — Steelers beat Ravens 43-23; Jets lost to Chiefs 24-10

AP PRO32 RANKING — Steelers No. 7, Jets No. 30

STEELERS OFFENSE — OVERALL (3), RUSH (13), PASS (4).

STEELERS DEFENSE — OVERALL (14), RUSH (11), PASS (19).

JETS OFFENSE — OVERALL (25), RUSH (3), PASS (32).

JETS DEFENSE — OVERALL (6), RUSH (7), PASS (12).

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES — Steelers have won three in row and look for first four-game streak since 2012. Jets have lost eight straight and would set dubious franchise record with loss. ... Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for 340 yards with six TDs against Ravens last Sunday to become first player in NFL history with six TD passes in back-to-back games. He also joined Y.A. Tittle (1962) as only players in league history with two six-TD games in same season. He needs three TD passes to reach 25 for third straight season, and 280 yards passing to get to 3,000 for ninth consecutive year. ... RB Le’Veon Bell leads AFC and ranks second in NFL with 1,144 yards from scrimmage, 711 rushing and 433 on receptions. Bell needs five catches to top John L. Williams (51 in 1994) for most in team history by running back. ... WR Antonio Brown needs at least five catches and 80 yards receiving to become first player in NFL history to reach those marks in each of the first 10 games of a season. Brown needs 4 yards receiving to reach 1,000 for second straight year, and become first in franchise history to do so in Steelers’ first 10 games. ... Rookie WR Martavis Bryant looking for third straight game with two TD catches. ... S Troy Polamalu (sprained right knee) and LB Ryan Shazier (sprained right ankle) ruled out. ... In first start with Jets, QB Michael Vick was 21 of 28 for 196 yards and one TD and passer rating of 105.7. Vick will start again in place of struggling Geno Smith, and needs 33 yards rushing to become first QB in NFL history with 6,000 for career. ... WR Percy Harvin had 11 catches for 129 yards in second game since being acquired from Seattle. It was most receptions by Jets receiver since Laveranues Coles had 12 against Minnesota in 2006. ... Eric Decker caught nine passes for 63 yards, marking first time Jets had pair of WRs combine for 20 catches in game since Eddie Bell (12) and Don Maynard (nine) in 1970. ... RB Chris Johnson had 69 yards rushing, most as member of Jets. ... Jace Amaro leads NFL rookie TEs in catches (32) and yards receiving (285), but had no targets last week at Kansas City.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/steelers-jets-capsule/2014/11/06/e61782a6-65e2-11e4-ab86-46000e1d0035_story.html

[V DUB]

Great and thorough write-up, Noggin.

Really appreciate it, they get better weekly. I like that you put how you think it will unfold rather than having one expect it to go as written.

Kudo's.

[Legacy User]

[Legacy User]

Love the pix Heinzsite! Been a long time since we saw one of your fine pieces of work...

Here is hoping that more are forthcoming soon!

[Legacy User]

NY Time Sports has Ben as the Fantasy player of this weekend.