Dissecting Brady's recent games against Steelers

[Legacy User]

2007: 34-13 - Brady 399 yards, 4TDs including 2 TDs to Moss

2010: 39-26 - Brady 350 yards, 3TDs, all to Gronk

2013: 55-31 - Brady 432 yards, 4 TDs, 1 TD to Gronk (and 143 yards)

2011: 25-17 Steelers - Brady 198 yards, 2 TDs

2015: 28-21 - Brady 288 yards, 4TDs (including 3TDs to Gronk)

2016: 27-16 - Brady 222 yards, 2 TDs (including one to Gronk)


Much is being made of Brady's 19 TDs and 0 Ints vs Tomlin teams (and 5-1 record), but its interesting to pay closer attention to those 6 games. In particular, Gronk accounts for 8 of those 19 TDs (and if you add 2 of Moss in 2007, you are talking about more than half of those TDs being caught by matchup nighmares).

In addition, in 3 of these 6 games, Brady's passing yards are under 300 yards

[jeemie]

2011 sticks out like a sore thumb.

We had the personnel to play press man across the board, and it was Lamarr Woodley's last great game as a Pittsburgh Steeler.

And we still only won by a touchdown (LOL).

No Gronk's is a huge break for us...but they are still dangerous without him.

[Legacy User]

2011 sticks out like a sore thumb.

We had the personnel to play press man across the board, and it was Lamar Woodley's last great game as a Pittsburgh Steeler.

And we still only won by a touchdown (LOL).

No Gronk's is a huge break for us...but they are still dangerous without him.

Fully agree that Pats are still very dangerous without Gronk. But I am encouraged by the fact that Steelers D, in two games under Butler, has a) kept Pats scoring under 30 and b) limited damage done by Brady.

[Legacy User]

good stuff FF --

My Fuck History post wasn't directed at this thread! Only at the TV commentators!

Love your analysis here

[Smashmouth21]

Mentioned in another thread, but I'm not sure this Steelers defense is really comparable to those of the past and I just think it matches up against the Pats better this year than in previous seasons.

Gone is the smashmouth defense that simply could not be run against but that was exposed if you spread it out and had a QB that could exploit the holes in the zone blitz. In the past, New England always had the advantage because Belichick was smart enough to seize his advantage and let Brady chuck the rock all over the yard without even bothering to entertain his running game until the Pats were up two scores. The Steelers defense is now young (sans the ageless wonder Harrison) and fast, with the athleticism to matchup with New England's spread tendencies. And no Gronk, who has been a Steeler killer, is huge

Tomlin's rebuild of the defense, like it or not, was designed specifically to combat the high-octane offenses of the modern NFL. Whether this unproven but emerging defense is up to the task is an open question, but Sunday is the litmus test.

[Legacy User]

Mentioned in another thread, but I'm not sure this Steelers defense is really comparable to those of the past and I just think it matches up against the Pats better this year than in previous seasons.

Gone is the smashmouth defense that simply could not be run against but that was exposed if you spread it out and had a QB that could exploit the holes in the zone blitz. In the past, New England always had the advantage because Belichick was smart enough to seize his advantage and let Brady chuck the rock all over the yard without even bothering to entertain his running game until the Pats were up two scores. The Steelers defense is now young (sans the ageless wonder Harrison) and fast, with the athleticism to matchup with New England's spread tendencies. And no Gronk, who has been a Steeler killer, is huge

Tomlin's rebuild of the defense, like it or not, was designed specifically to combat the high-octane offenses of the modern NFL. Whether this unproven but emerging defense is up to the task is an open question, but Sunday is the litmus test.

EXCELLENT POINT

all of the commentators who dwell on HISTORY fail to see that this year's defense is completely different from those in prior years -- they are STUCK IN THE PAST rather than analyzing and assessing WHAT IS.

Tomlin has completely re-made this defense, starting with his very first draft pick of Lawrence Timmons. Now we have so much more speed with Shazier, Dupree, Davis, Burns, Tuitt etc. This defense is much more prepared for this NE offense

[jeemie]

I really think the commentators are not favoring the Patriots because of the past, but the present.

The inconsistent play of the Steeler offense plays into New England's great strength...which is consistency.

I think our team is more talented than New England's.

Unfortunately, we often play beneath our individual talent level, while New England often exceeds their individual talent level.

It is for this reason they are favored...and should be.

It's for this reason I know we have the ability to win, but am not confident we will win.

[Smashmouth21]

I really think the commentators are not favoring the Patriots because of the past, but the present.

The inconsistent play of the Steeler offense plays into New England's great strength...which is consistency.

I think our team is more talented than New England's.

Unfortunately, we often play beneath our individual talent level, while New England often exceeds their individual talent level.

It is for this reason they are favored...and should be.

It's for this reason I know we have the ability to win, but am not confident we will win.

The Pats should be favored. Just not by 6. This is probably a pick 'em and maybe New England gets 3 for home field advantage. The roster talent, the improved matchups on defense (compared to historically), and the emergence of the offensive line--which has been absolutely mauling opposing defenses, gives the Steelers a very good opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.

[Legacy User]

The Pats should be favored. Just not by 6. This is probably a pick 'em and maybe New England gets 3 for home field advantage.

If this game was a 1/1 then betting on the Pats would be HUGE and the spread quickly corrected. On a good note, anybody that (really) believes the Steelers are going to win outright will really like the money line which I've seen high as +225 (wager a $100 to win $225).

....at least that's the direction I'm going (5Dimes +205).

[jeemie]

I really think the commentators are not favoring the Patriots because of the past, but the present.

The inconsistent play of the Steeler offense plays into New England's great strength...which is consistency.

I think our team is more talented than New England's.

Unfortunately, we often play beneath our individual talent level, while New England often exceeds their individual talent level.

It is for this reason they are favored...and should be.

It's for this reason I know we have the ability to win, but am not confident we will win.

The Pats should be favored. Just not by 6. This is probably a pick 'em and maybe New England gets 3 for home field advantage. The roster talent, the improved matchups on defense (compared to historically), and the emergence of the offensive line--which has been absolutely mauling opposing defenses, gives the Steelers a very good opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Wisdom of Crowds disagrees with you that the line should be 3.

[Smashmouth21]

I really think the commentators are not favoring the Patriots because of the past, but the present.

The inconsistent play of the Steeler offense plays into New England's great strength...which is consistency.

I think our team is more talented than New England's.

Unfortunately, we often play beneath our individual talent level, while New England often exceeds their individual talent level.

It is for this reason they are favored...and should be.

It's for this reason I know we have the ability to win, but am not confident we will win.

The Pats should be favored. Just not by 6. This is probably a pick 'em and maybe New England gets 3 for home field advantage. The roster talent, the improved matchups on defense (compared to historically), and the emergence of the offensive line--which has been absolutely mauling opposing defenses, gives the Steelers a very good opportunity to advance to the Super Bowl.

The Wisdom of Crowds disagrees with you that the line should be 3.

I loathe betting on the Steelers, particularly as favorites. But I'm more than willing to put my money where my mouth is when the price is right.

[Legacy User]

I really think the commentators are not favoring the Patriots because of the past, but the present.

The inconsistent play of the Steeler offense plays into New England's great strength...which is consistency.

I think our team is more talented than New England's.

Unfortunately, we often play beneath our individual talent level, while New England often exceeds their individual talent level.

It is for this reason they are favored...and should be.

It's for this reason I know we have the ability to win, but am not confident we will win.

Its not that we play beneath our talent level its that we play to the level of our competition which is a distinct difference. Instead of playing close to the vest we need to instead be dictating terms. That's what I think happens this week, Tomlin is in grab this game and win it mode as will the players be imo for a variety of motivational issues. This team is on a mission, at least it really feels that way to me.

[Legacy User]

...

The Wisdom of Crowds disagrees with you that the line should be 3.

I closely watched the political betting markets last year. I'm not as confident in the "wisdoom of crowds" as I once was, even those putting money where their mouth is.