Trending up or trending down?

[jeemie]

To site Colon is only relevant in that he was on IR 2 years in a row. One injury being a leg injury and the other being a arm injury does not seem to have much correlation in terms of the 1st injury leading to the 2nd. It looks like Colon has not missed any more seasons than those two. Now offering a big contract to an average player was more of a choice of poor drafting/coaching in that they had no one to fill in when Colon could leave and thus were forced to resign him for more than was good in the long run.

You're right- he had three separate injuries 2010-2012- Achilles, triceps, knee. I thought it was a knee both times in 2011 and 2012.

My bad...not a good example.

I will not talk about this anymore- I still would have liked to see more injury risk factored into Pouncey's contract.

[Legacy User]

I don't think there is anyway you can determine the state of recovery until you actually see how the player actually plays the game.

In his experience, Elattrache said it’s possible for football players to return to their previous performance level after this type of surgery. But contrary to popular belief, he said, when football players undergo ACL injuries, only about 70 percent return to their prior level. With LCL injuries, that injury drops to about 50 percent. However, in Mathieu’s case, it helps that he’s 21, said Stephania Bell, ESPN's injury analyst and physical therapist.

http://espn.go.com/blog/arizona-cardinals/post/_/id/3483/experts-break-down-mathieus-knee-surgery

As to increased risk of another injury-

Also, Kremer said studies show that there is a 5-6 percent chance of a recurrent injury to the same knee within two years.

http://www.nflevolution.com/article/nfl-players-find-not-all-knee-injuries,-recovery-periods-are-alike?ref=0ap2000000340835

I had seen elsewhere a number that was about 15%...but I'm fairly certain this is more up to date.

Pouncey doesn't have the LCL injury, and it seems the MCL injury mostly only effects the amount of time necessary to wait before surgery, but the fact that 30% of players with ACL's alone don't return to previous level of play makes this a big gamble. And I really have no clue why you would give him a signing bonus greater then C Kaps and make him the highest paid center in football...when you could have at least waited until some point late in the season and make the same offer if he plays up to it.

[jeemie]

And I really have no clue why you would give him a signing bonus greater then C Kaps and make him the highest paid center in football...when you could have at least waited until some point late in the season and make the same offer if he plays up to it.

Unfortunately, the Steelers don't do deals in season...and if he did recover and play well then maybe Pouncey goes onto the market.

I have come around to the notion this was a huge gamble...actually studying the numbers on his contract and how much we are going to be paying him the next two seasons has done that...but the Steelers do want Pouncey as one of their "core guys", so to them, the risk was he got to FA healthy and they are willing to assume the risk that he won't get injured again...or something else, pending what comes out of this nightclub investigation.

I wouldn't do it...they did.

We have to hope for the best.

(Yes- I said I wouldn't say any more on the subject, but when have I been known to resist? )

[jebrick]

When they say players, are they looking at all players or certain positions? I would say that some positions would have a harder time returning to normal than other. WR and RB, for example, have to do cuts and digs on those repaired knees. For the most part, the Oline and dline have much different stresses on their knees. It would be interesting to see the study breaking it down by position. You would also have to clump them by doctors.

Even then, to IC's point, you leave too much out to make anything other than generalizations.

[jeemie]

When they say players, are they looking at all players or certain positions? I would say that some positions would have a harder time returning to normal than other. WR and RB, for example, have to do cuts and digs on those repaired knees. For the most part, the Oline and dline have much different stresses on their knees. It would be interesting to see the study breaking it down by position. You would also have to clump them by doctors.

Even then, to IC's point, you leave too much out to make anything other than generalizations.

I just don't like the Steelers to assume all the risk with a player coming off a major injury.

Is that such a weird philosophy to have?

By the time Pouncey could reasonably be cut should he have another major injury, he will have been paid $21M and still have a dead money cap hit of $7.8 M.

That's the Steelers assuming all of the risk.

Considering how many times this OL has injuries...I think it's kind of a major risk.

[lifelongsteel]

Seems to me that injury risk is factored into Pouncey contract. Here are some recent guarantees for top interior OL

Nicks: $25M
Mankins: $21.5M
Kalil: $19M
Evans: $19M
Mack: $18M
Blalock: $16M
Mangold: $16M
Grubbs: $15.9M
Wood: $14.5M
Myers: $14M
Pouncey: $13M
Levitre: $13M

[Legacy User]

Unfortunately, the Steelers don't do deals in season...and if he did recover and play well then maybe Pouncey goes onto the market.

I understand that...but they just paid him top center money in the NFL. They could have almost def signed him for the same money 12 games in when he's proved he is the player they think he is.

When they say players, are they looking at all players or certain positions? I would say that some positions would have a harder time returning to normal than other. WR and RB, for example, have to do cuts and digs on those repaired knees. For the most part, the Oline and dline have much different stresses on their knees. It would be interesting to see the study breaking it down by position. You would also have to clump them by doctors.

He was making a general statement about all players. As far as specific surgeons recovery rates go I've recently read there is no real difference among NFL orthopedic surgeons recovery rates...and there is no difference in recovery rate in professional athletes that get knee surgery here and those that go to Europe for GH, stem cell, and other procedures not performed here. Despite the fact that ACL injuries are most often non contact cutting injuries as you suggest, the latest on injury rate by position is-

In contrast, reviewing ACL injuries sustained in the NFL,
Bradley and colleagues found that linemen have some of
the highest ACL injury rates. Defensive linemen (39%),
defensive backs (38%), offensive running backs (32%), and
offensive linemen (30%) were found to be at highest risk.
The increased risk faced by NFL linemen (versus collegiate
linemen) might be explained by the fact that NFL players
may be more likely to have previous knee injuries and more
playing experience than collegiate players.

One of the latest theories is Proprioception is the major cause of ACL injuries. ACL injuries never happen when players are training alone. Proprioception requires a player to predict where his body should be in relation to that opponent. So the more a player has to guess where the opponent is going to be...like MP moving to the second level...the more likely an injury will occur.

There isn't going to be anything like you are looking for...the prior assessment of player ability is subjective in itself. But I see no reason to make him the highest paid center in the NFL at this point.

[Legacy User]

Seems to me that injury risk is factored into Pouncey contract. Here are some recent guarantees for top interior OL

Nicks: $25M
Mankins: $21.5M
Kalil: $19M
Evans: $19M
Mack: $18M
Blalock: $16M
Mangold: $16M
Grubbs: $15.9M
Wood: $14.5M
Myers: $14M
Pouncey: $13M
Levitre: $13M

If MP makes the roster in 2015 the guarenteed money goes to over 17 million...in 2016 over 20 million.

[jeemie]

Seems to me that injury risk is factored into Pouncey contract. Here are some recent guarantees for top interior OL

Nicks: $25M
Mankins: $21.5M
Kalil: $19M
Evans: $19M
Mack: $18M
Blalock: $16M
Mangold: $16M
Grubbs: $15.9M
Wood: $14.5M
Myers: $14M
Pouncey: $13M
Levitre: $13M

As Kodiak said, you have to take into account what he is likely to be paid, not just guaranteed scratch.

He's essentially getting paid the same or better as Mack and Mangold...and those guys don't have injury histories.

I am coming around to his position on this.

Like I said, if Pouncey gets injured again, the earliest they could cut him would be two years from now.

By which time they would have paid him $20.9 M AND he will still be a $7.8 M dead money cap hit.

PS You can't compare him to ALL O-linemen...especially tackles...they get more money anyway.

[Legacy User]

if Pouncey gets injured again

What a sad and pathetic business model that would be. I guess you'd have to factor that into every players deal until you get such a reputation for being so cheap that nobody wants to play for you.

Conversely, if he doesn't get hurt and returns to multiple all pro status then you're stuck with a hold out.

I know Ben Roethlisberger has had multiple injuries and a suspension. I wonder if he's in line for league min

[Kodiak]

There seems to be an emerging trend where teams are giving less in SB and instead guaranteeing the first 2-3 years of salary. This makes a lot of sense as players are mostly concerned with getting cut or a career-altering injury...and its rather rare for a guy to be cut after just 2 years of a new, big contract.

You can't go crazy because if a guy holds out down the road you can't claw-back salary/roster bonus like you can a SB. But if you can save a few million guaranteeing money you're almost certainly going to pay the guy anyway, then why not do it?

[Legacy User]

A lying young punk fucker like that can never be a real leader.

If you rely on someone like that to be a team leader then you need to get on with your life's work.

[lifelongsteel]

Seems to me that injury risk is factored into Pouncey contract. Here are some recent guarantees for top interior OL

Nicks: $25M
Mankins: $21.5M
Kalil: $19M
Evans: $19M
Mack: $18M
Blalock: $16M
Mangold: $16M
Grubbs: $15.9M
Wood: $14.5M
Myers: $14M
Pouncey: $13M
Levitre: $13M

As Kodiak said, you have to take into account what he is likely to be paid, not just guaranteed scratch.

He's essentially getting paid the same or better as Mack and Mangold...and those guys don't have injury histories.

I am coming around to his position on this.

Like I said, if Pouncey gets injured again, the earliest they could cut him would be two years from now.

By which time they would have paid him $20.9 M AND he will still be a $7.8 M dead money cap hit.

PS You can't compare him to ALL O-linemen...especially tackles...they get more money anyway.

The point on the guaranteed money is that they gave him less than similar players received. I take this as his injury discount.

note: these are all interior line players. no tackles included.