Tomlin's record in 1 possession games

[TTP]

Bye week fodder:

On Sunday morning, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers won yet another one possession game and are now 3-0 in such games this season. Tomlin's career record now sits at an absurd 108-69-2. That's +19.5 wins above the average coach (average = .500 winning percentage).

It wasn't always this way. Tomlin started out 2-6 in 2007, was 11-15 part way through 2009, and just 44-41 through the 2015 season. Starting in 2016, Tomlin's teams have gone a ridiculous 64-28-2. They've been even better lately, going 45-17 since Ben's arm injury in 2019.

Some will say, yes, of course he has a good record in one possession games, he had one of the most clutch QBs of all time for the vast majority of the time. But, Tomlin actual has a better record in close games with other QBs: Big Ben 71-48-1 (.597 win pct) vs. 37-21-1 (.638).

I totally get why Tomlin's teams play in so many close games. It's by design. But, that doesn't explain why he wins them at such a high rate. Does anyone have a good hypothesis, other than random variation? It's weird.

Here are record of all QBs under Tomlin in one possession games:

Batch 2-3
Dixon 1-1
Fields 2-1
Hodges 3-2
Jones 2-0
Leftwich 0-1
Pickett 12-4 (WHAT?)
Rodgers 3-0
Roethlisberger 71-48-1
Rudolph 5-3
Trubisky 2-3
Vick 1-1
Wilson 4-2

[Stosh-67]

Have a contact that works in the health care facility that does upper Steelers brass full body health scan.

I know, i Know...
If I am breaking some kind of HIPPAA, mods can pull this down.

But here is his X-ray from prior to the season.

[Gonzo]

well Ben at 71-48 certainly helps the overall
another is they are not only playing for close games but allowing teams back in games by squatting. yesterday should not have been a one score game

i would be curious how many of these games they came back in vs let the other team back in

[Mick]

For a guy that supposedly mismanages end of games, he
(1) never loses a game where gets a reasonable lead
(2) has the best record ever in 1-score games
(3) does a fair job coming from behind late as well, even without HoF QB play.

Worth noting that one way to get a great record in 1-score games is to always turtle away 2 score leads late. But i don’t think that’s the dominant factor here (among other reasons, we simply haven’t had that many 2 score leads).

We have a lot of problems. Painful as it is to watch late game tomlin turtleball, it’s not a problem.

[StillerDownSouth]

Tomlin passed his mentor Tony Dungey with the win this week in a 1 score game, he's now the all-time leader in winning percentage in 1 score games. Not to sing his praises, cause like many here I often bitch about his in game strategy, but his track record in close games especially with shitty QB's actually says he's either really good, or the luckiest fucker on the face of the earth.

[anpsteel]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Taking Ben's wins out of there- and he's 34-22 in these games.

I can't believe kenny pickett accounts for the differential between him being over 500 lol that's nuts

[Mick]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Tomlin at 32-23 post-ben; belichick went 29-38 after brady left.

It’s certainly been painful to watch steeler games the past few years, but it’s been 10-7ish.

[anpsteel]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Tomlin at 32-23 post-ben; belichick went 29-38 after brady left.

It’s certainly been painful to watch steeler games the past few years, but it’s been 10-7ish.

I recognize his one score record is still positive- but I seriously doubt he'd have nearly the record OR the NHALS without Ben on the roster.

[StillerDownSouth]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Taking Ben's wins out of there- and he's 34-22 in these games.

I can't believe kenny pickett accounts for the differential between him being over 500 lol that's nuts

71-48-1 with Ben is a 59% winning percentage in 1 score games
34-22 without Ben is a 61% winning percentage in 1 score games with bums, I'm not sure you opening statement makes much sense.

[tbsteel]

All his teams know how to do is play in close games. They eat, breathe, and sleep close games. When they're at home beating their pud they're thinking of some sloppy ass 19-16 game. They get so uncomfortable when they're up big in games they just instinctually do whatever they can to make the game tighten up, ironically, to get back into their comfort zone. If they're getting blown out? They just turtle up and because they don't know what the fuck to do in those situations.

[Jizz Mop]

It’s great to have an intellectual HC who knows exactly what to do in these close, one-score games…..especially in the waning moments.

I thank the higher powers daily he is our HC.

We are truly blessed!

/s

[swissvale72]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Taking Ben's wins out of there- and he's 34-22 in these games.

I can't believe kenny pickett accounts for the differential between him being over 500 lol that's nuts

As far as credit where it's due....
-one analyst, I forget who, perhaps put it best..."Pittsburgh Steelers have deficiencies but know how to win." Let's just give Tomlin credit for that instead of looking for ways to shit on that record.

-Kenny Pickett, in 22 &. 23, DID come up big in some 4th quarters, notably against Baltimore both those years, and against Oakland in 22.

[langer]

This is Richie Kotite level stuff. It's Coach's binky.

I do recall when he was ok with going for it on 4th, when Ben was around. Maybe there's something going on bts.

“It's a no-brainer! You get a half a yard and the Minnesota Vikings never possess the ball ever again,” said Olsen. “…You've been good all day with Kenneth Gainwell running the ball behind this offensive line and the big tackles… I don't get it.”

[anpsteel]

Take out all of Ben's saving his ass, games... and that number is much more "normal"

Without Ben, Tomlin is a failure.

Taking Ben's wins out of there- and he's 34-22 in these games.

I can't believe kenny pickett accounts for the differential between him being over 500 lol that's nuts

71-48-1 with Ben is a 59% winning percentage in 1 score games
34-22 without Ben is a 61% winning percentage in 1 score games with bums, I'm not sure you opening statement makes much sense.

I guess you haven’t been watching

That should be your first move

[Havoc]

It wasn't always this way. Tomlin started out 2-6 in 2007, was 11-15 part way through 2009, and just 44-41 through the 2015 season. Starting in 2016, Tomlin's teams have gone a ridiculous 64-28-2. They've been even better lately, going 45-17 since Ben's arm injury in 2019.

We got a Lombardi in 2008

Numbers for teams going nowhere are meaningless

Show me numbers for teams that win championships.

Tomlin's dumbed down impact on offense is a factor and it's not something to applaud.

[955876]

He’s a stud. We are lucky to have him.

[CKSteeler]

How many of these games were close that didn't have any reason to be? This was already touched upon, but Tomlin has let a lot of shit teams that had no business being in a tight game with the Steelers given the talent disparity.

Circle this back around to some of the major upsets the Steelers have been victim to under Tomlin.

I'd guess Tomlin plays in more one score games than most of the top tier coaches we'd compare him to given his longevity. A lot of games where Belichick and the Pats would have blown people out.

And the team wasn't as devoid of talent post-Ben as some believe.

But this isn't to say Tomlin deserves no credit for this. His teams GENERALLY don't quit. They fight to the end every week with some notable exceptions and do so week 1 through week 17.

[Stillchest]

Regular season accolades.

I thought the goal was to win playoff games and championships?!?

[langer]

Same shit every year.

Some notable wins, then nothing when it matters and word salad explaining it away.

Then back to the same foolishness the next season.

Will this team fall apart later this season is the question...

[Gonzo]

Regular season accolades.

I thought the goal was to win playoff games and championships?!?

not anymore -- its why this type of stat gets tossed about
be happy ... 9 close wins a year is fan heaven -- whats everyone complaining about

i actually dont know what the debate is -- its all on tape ....
9-8, close games, conservative offense that protects overrated defense, never change the Plan, playoff embarrassment (that spans great to not so great QBs)
you are either happy with that or you are not ... the past decade isnt simply bad luck for a great coach. it is what it is

[LakecrestSteeler]

Bye week fodder:

On Sunday morning, Mike Tomlin and the Steelers won yet another one possession game and are now 3-0 in such games this season. Tomlin's career record now sits at an absurd 108-69-2. That's +19.5 wins above the average coach (average = .500 winning percentage).

It wasn't always this way. Tomlin started out 2-6 in 2007, was 11-15 part way through 2009, and just 44-41 through the 2015 season. Starting in 2016, Tomlin's teams have gone a ridiculous 64-28-2. They've been even better lately, going 45-17 since Ben's arm injury in 2019.

Some will say, yes, of course he has a good record in one possession games, he had one of the most clutch QBs of all time for the vast majority of the time. But, Tomlin actual has a better record in close games with other QBs: Big Ben 71-48-1 (.597 win pct) vs. 37-21-1 (.638).

I totally get why Tomlin's teams play in so many close games. It's by design. But, that doesn't explain why he wins them at such a high rate. Does anyone have a good hypothesis, other than random variation? It's weird.

Here are record of all QBs under Tomlin in one possession games:

Batch 2-3
Dixon 1-1
Fields 2-1
Hodges 3-2
Jones 2-0
Leftwich 0-1
Pickett 12-4 (WHAT?)
Rodgers 3-0
Roethlisberger 71-48-1
Rudolph 5-3
Trubisky 2-3
Vick 1-1
Wilson 4-2

Tomlin would make a good process engineer.

He has removed risk at the expense of career growth and development for his athletes and coaches. He has repeatable processes and simple edicts to deliver you guessed it, NHALS or he delivers Khao, a soft white rice in lukewarm water!

[bradshaw2ben]

How many of these games were close that didn't have any reason to be? This was already touched upon, but Tomlin has let a lot of shit teams that had no business being in a tight game with the Steelers given the talent disparity.

Circle this back around to some of the major upsets the Steelers have been victim to under Tomlin.

I'd guess Tomlin plays in more one score games than most of the top tier coaches we'd compare him to given his longevity. A lot of games where Belichick and the Pats would have blown people out.

And the team wasn't as devoid of talent post-Ben as some believe.

But this isn't to say Tomlin deserves no credit for this. His teams GENERALLY don't quit. They fight to the end every week with some notable exceptions and do so week 1 through week 17.

This is a big factor: playing hard in late-season more or less meaningless games vs opponents who are beat up, injured, or ready for the offseason. That gets him to NHALS and probably accounts for half of those Kenny Pickett close wins.

[Ice]

Now do "record in games where his team was favored by 7+" or "record vs. backup QBs." Hey, bye week, keeps the discussion going.

[swissvale72]

How many of these games were close that didn't have any reason to be? This was already touched upon, but Tomlin has let a lot of shit teams that had no business being in a tight game with the Steelers given the talent disparity.

Circle this back around to some of the major upsets the Steelers have been victim to under Tomlin.

I'd guess Tomlin plays in more one score games than most of the top tier coaches we'd compare him to given his longevity. A lot of games where Belichick and the Pats would have blown people out.

And the team wasn't as devoid of talent post-Ben as some believe.

But this isn't to say Tomlin deserves no credit for this. His teams GENERALLY don't quit. They fight to the end every week with some notable exceptions and do so week 1 through week 17.

This is a big factor: playing hard in late-season more or less meaningless games vs opponents who are beat up, injured, or ready for the offseason. That gets him to NHALS and probably accounts for half of those Kenny Pickett close wins.

As far as "meaningless" games, I believe there was only one season, I think 2012, where Tomlin's team went into the season finale already eliminated from playoff consideration.

[bradshaw2ben]

I mean mostly that the other team was out of it but also that the Steelers weren't fooling anybody that they were Super Bowl contenders when they needed to win their last 4 or whatever to make the postseason.

[swissvale72]

I mean mostly that the other team was out of it but also that the Steelers weren't fooling anybody that they were Super Bowl contenders when they needed to win their last 4 or whatever to make the postseason.

Like in 2005?? Lol

[bradshaw2ben]

I mean mostly that the other team was out of it but also that the Steelers weren't fooling anybody that they were Super Bowl contenders when they needed to win their last 4 or whatever to make the postseason.

Like in 2005?? Lol

They had Ben Roethlisberger and a defense that proved itself in 2004. They had neither of those things when they got on their pate-season run.

[CKSteeler]

The 2005 Steelers were a team that hit some bad luck with injuries, mainly to Roethlisberger. Guy had knee surgery and rushed back and the assholes in the media rushed to cement the narrative that would follow him for the next half decade or so that he was a game manager who couldn't win if he threw 30+ times in a game after the Indy and Bungles games.

Tommy Maddox and those knee injuries were why they were "only" 11-5 and had to fight like hell to make it.

[Gonzo]

we have been relegated to discussing 2005 - and teams with more big wins, talent, heart and real Steelers ...

I guess 15 years isnt so long to watch the slow drain to shallow and heartess football

[Havoc]

If you aren't a legit contender for the Lombardi or on a path there, you aren't playing meaningful games.

Cowboys have averaged 2 out of 3 non losing seasons during their past 30. I wonder how many meaningful games a lot of that fan base believe they've played during that stretch.

I know people who were born in Texas who dropped that team.

Cowboys have more seasons with a playoff win than the Steelers the past 14 seasons.... since Aaron shredded our defense in the SB.

It took a drive for the ages for Tomlin to get his Barry Switzer ring. Our vaunted defense couldn't hold the lead.

Think of the chances of this happening again. Tomlin strategy + today's rules = lightening has to strike in the same place twice