langer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 11:03 pm
I enjoyed transcribing this quote out really a great deal. It made me smarter, if you will, and offered me a greater exponential component.
For us, it’s about playing to a personality that we prescribe to engineer victory, to possess the ball. And a component of possessing the ball is not only time but managing risk. And obviously, there's less risk with running the football than passing it, and sometimes that’s a component of this discussion as well.
Man, so much wrong with this quote I don't know where to start. Yes, from a turnovers perspective, it is less risky to run the ball than to pass. No argument. But, that's not the only part of risk to consider. By running the ball so much on first down, and on 2nd and long, you risk not getting first downs because passing is so much more efficient than running. An approach that is too risk averse discounts the reward side of the risk-reward ratio. That's Tomlin in a nutshell.
This is the same reason that the Steelers don't use the middle of the field in the passing game. Passes in the MotF are intercepted at twice the rate compared to passes along the sidelines. But, they are also much more efficient (EPA, YPA, etc) even when accounting for the increased turnovers. The rewards are greater than the risks on the whole. But, Tomlin only sees the risk side.
Tomlin's approach to 4th downs in another example of not understanding risks vs. rewards. Taken all together, this blind spot is by far Tomlin's biggest coaching flaw, way more important than stuff that is typically cited like use of timeouts, challenges, time management, etc.
"A sedan is usually functional. This offense looks more like a broken down 80’s chevette being driven by 85 year old Chinese woman."
-SteelPro
