Post
by ironzabo » Fri Apr 28, 2017 4:35 am
Attempt to Read Below:
First, he’s too small, and it shows on the tape. At any point, if a big blocker is able to get between Watt’s pads, he is stuck. At 250 lbs., he doesn’t possess the strength to bull rush through bigger blockers. This will become an ever bigger problem at the pro level where blockers are better versed in their technique.
Watt’s size also becomes an issue in his schematic fit on an NFL squad. Mostly played in Wisconsin’s 3-4 defensive scheme as an outside linebacker, Watt was used primarily as a standing pass rusher.
This means two things:
Watt was often schemed to come off the edge unblocked. The 4:12 spot in the Ohio State film shows exactly what I’m talking about as Watt gets a free tackle for loss. Certainly his sack and tackle for loss numbers are impressive from last season, but many came from unblocked positions.
Watt was rarely in coverage. Especially in games against the best teams in the nations, i.e. Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan St. etc., T.J. rarely dropped into coverage. When he did, he dropped to just a shallow zone. Without much coverage experience, Watt’s immediate impact in that respect at the NFL level is limited.
If we look at how these things translate to the NFL, we can see that Watt will be limited, at least in his first year, to pass-rushing duties. Without the size to set the edge (see GIF below) or the coverage skills to mark a tight end or slot receiver, Watt will only provide NFL-level production as a pass-rusher off the edge. Further, again, because of his size, Watt will most likely only fit in 3-4 defenses that don’t require outside linebackers to drop back in coverage. Given these factors, Watt’s NFL usage becomes rather limited.
TJ Watt unable to set edge
Putting lack of size, strength, and coverage skills aside, Watt could still make the case for a first round pick if he showed a versatile pass-rushing repertoire. Unfortunately, this isn’t the case. Of the six 2016 games I watched of Watt, I recorded just one spin-move. Other than using his hands and burst to attack the blocker before he’s ready, Watt shows very little in his pass-rushing arsenal. He doesn’t get low, he doesn’t bend, he doesn’t spin, and he can’t get out of the arms of bigger blockers. It’s difficult to see how Watt will be productive against NFL-caliber tackles and edge blockers.
Verdict
T.J. Watt is a tweener, too small to be a defensive end, but without enough versatility to be a first-round linebacker. With his natural burst, big frame, hand technique, Watt should probably put on 10-15 pounds of muscle and go all-in to the defensive end position. Perhaps the extra weight and added strength could allow Watt to better leverage his burst to bull-rush through blockers. If he’s unable to do this, Watt might end up becoming just a pass-rushing specialist who gets rotated in on third downs. Depending on how confident a team is in his ability to get stronger, I’d rate Watt anywhere from early in the second round through the third round.
Best Fit
The Carolina Panthers are the first team that comes to mind in terms of best fit for T.J. Watt. With a head coach in Ron Rivera who wants to build a physical, tough defense, Watt could be a great addition for the Panthers. With aging defensive linemen and a shaky secondary, it is crucial that Carolina produces pass-rush pressure. Though this would likely require Watt to bulk up a bit to play defensive end in Carolina’s 4-3 scheme, the cultural fit and Carolina’s vision would be great for T.J.
Another interesting fit could be with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Another defense that wants to be tough and physical, the Steelers have been relying on a far-too-old James Harrison to produce pressure off the edge for them. Even if Bud Dupree is able to become half the monster that he was at Kentucky, Pittsburgh has very little depth to offer for pass-rushers. Operating in a 3-4 base defense, T.J. Watt would be a perfect rotational pass-rusher for the Steelers to slot in as Harrison continues to age.