Comp picks bad news reality

[SteelerDayTrader]

The nfl only gives out 32 of them

In a HUGE FA year like this year the Steelers wont be getting anywhere near the haul some of you are projecting.

Im gonna guess it will look like 4 5 7

[steelcountry]

The nfl only gives out 32 of them

In a HUGE FA year like this year the Steelers wont be getting anywhere near the haul some of you are projecting.

Im gonna guess it will look like 4 5 7

Actual reality: it won't be our 3rd or 4th round comp picks that drop off, it will be the 7th round picks for all the teams, similar to this year. I'm guessing Dupree, JJSS, Villy, Feiler, Hilton and Conner are valued at 2 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, 2 5th round picks and a 7th round pick. We'l probably pick up a couple UFAs in the 3-5M AAV range so we likely end up with 2 3rds, a 4th and likely one 5th.

[Thrillsseeker]

The nfl only gives out 32 of them

In a HUGE FA year like this year the Steelers wont be getting anywhere near the haul some of you are projecting.

Im gonna guess it will look like 4 5 7

Actual reality: it won't be our 3rd or 4th round comp picks that drop off, it will be the 7th round picks for all the teams, similar to this year. I'm guessing Dupree, JJSS, Villy, Feiler, Hilton and Conner are valued at 2 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, 2 5th round picks and a 7th round pick. We'l probably pick up a couple UFAs in the 3-5M AAV range so twe likely end up with 2 3rds, a 4th and likely one 5th.

Never going to happen.

[steelcountry]

The nfl only gives out 32 of them

In a HUGE FA year like this year the Steelers wont be getting anywhere near the haul some of you are projecting.

Im gonna guess it will look like 4 5 7

Actual reality: it won't be our 3rd or 4th round comp picks that drop off, it will be the 7th round picks for all the teams, similar to this year. I'm guessing Dupree, JJSS, Villy, Feiler, Hilton and Conner are valued at 2 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, 2 5th round picks and a 7th round pick. We'l probably pick up a couple UFAs in the 3-5M AAV range so twe likely end up with 2 3rds, a 4th and likely one 5th.

Never going to happen.

Very likely to happen.

[DP39]

With all of the offseason movement this year, I'll be surprised if we end up with more than a 3rd, a 4th, a 6th, and a 7th next year.

[Jobu]

Actual reality: it won't be our 3rd or 4th round comp picks that drop off, it will be the 7th round picks for all the teams, similar to this year. I'm guessing Dupree, JJSS, Villy, Feiler, Hilton and Conner are valued at 2 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, 2 5th round picks and a 7th round pick. We'l probably pick up a couple UFAs in the 3-5M AAV range so twe likely end up with 2 3rds, a 4th and likely one 5th.

Never going to happen.

Very likely to happen.

In this odd year, a lot of teams are losing FAs. With only 32 comps to hand out, Steelers aren’t getting 4. My guess is 2... 3 and 5.

[Steelersfan]

Well, good news is, after spending all their cap and now signing the top two TEs; Hunter Henry & Jonnu, the Patriots won't be getting all the comp picks for once.

Hope it works out for us. We'll need a good haul of picks, next year.

[steelcountry]

Never going to happen.

Very likely to happen.

In this odd year, a lot of teams are losing FAs. With only 32 comps to hand out, Steelers aren’t getting 4. My guess is 2... 3 and 5.

That's just not how it works. The comp picks that will drop off will be those that have 7th or possibly 6th round value. The Steelers are likely to lose 3 of the top 10 or so FAs. Unless they sign someone of similar value they will get those 3 comp picks and they will be in the 3rd or 4th round. There's also a very good chance they don't sign someone to offset Feiler and Hilton so they will likely get at least one more in the 5th.

[Jobu]

Well, good news is, after spending all their cap and now signing the top two TEs; Hunter Henry & Jonnu, the Patriots won't be getting all the comp picks for once.

Hope it works out for us. We'll need a good haul of picks, next year.

They also signed Judon.

[Thrillsseeker]

Actual reality: it won't be our 3rd or 4th round comp picks that drop off, it will be the 7th round picks for all the teams, similar to this year. I'm guessing Dupree, JJSS, Villy, Feiler, Hilton and Conner are valued at 2 3rd round picks, a 4th round pick, 2 5th round picks and a 7th round pick. We'l probably pick up a couple UFAs in the 3-5M AAV range so twe likely end up with 2 3rds, a 4th and likely one 5th.

Never going to happen.

Very likely to happen.

Get back to me if you still think it happens after FA’s are all signed and rosters are set. If, you still think it will I’ll avatar bet you.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Not a chance in hell the Steelers get a 3rd IMO

They will be lucky to get 4 5 7

I think 4 5 or 4 6 is more likely truthfully

[DP39]

Well, good news is, after spending all their cap and now signing the top two TEs; Hunter Henry & Jonnu, the Patriots won't be getting all the comp picks for once.

Hope it works out for us. We'll need a good haul of picks, next year.

I hate to say it, but it probably won't matter much. Knowing BB, I'm guessing he will find a way to draft a top QB next month. He'll have a good D next year and is adding O weapons left and right. He'll get his missing QB piece soon enough, just watch.

[Steelperch]

As long as Dupree plays next season he’ll return a 3rd. I’d think JuJu brings a 4th if he leaves. Hilton is probably a 6. I doubt James Connor gets more than Hilton, so he and the rest won’t qualify for anything.

[Scunge]

The amounts to me play a big role. Some of what these other teams are paying for players, they are nice and all but some of them are paltry amounts.

37 million for Hunter Henry? $45 million for Carl Lawson?? Those are nice but those aren't 3rd round comp worthy. Javon Hargrave left for $39 million last year and that was only good for a 4th round comp pick.

Dupree leaving for $85 million THAT is a 3rd round comp pick.

If JuJu signs for $75-80 million THAT is a 3rd round comp pick.

Then, I think Hilton, Feiler and probably Big Al, that combination might get us a 5th round comp pick.

My prediction, a 3rd, a 3rd and a 5th in comp picks. That is unless the Steelers are "stupid" and start to sign free agents that start to nullify those comp picks.

There are always plenty of street free agents to sign, those being cut by their former teams that we can sign with no penalty. The Raiders just cut Rodney Hudson, former 3 time Pro Bowler, who will turn 32 years old. That should be their MO, only go after cut players.

[tbsteel]

Don't know why anyone is throwing out wild guesses or projections for something that is pretty well defined at this point. Sure, there are always nuances (we were on the edge of getting a pick for Finney last year, or the time we ended up surprisingly getting a 3rd for Beachum when we were projected for a 4th), but it's a pretty well studied process and projection that can be calculated.

Here's the best site on the planet for this stuff and takes 95% of the guess work out of it: https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks/

Only 32 compensatory picks are awarded each year. Right now, we're projected for a 3rd (Dupree), 5th (Feiler), 5th or 6th (Hilton, currently as the top 6th rounder or would be the bottom 5th rounder), and a 6th/7th for Alualu.

The more FAs other teams sign that have APYs higher than one of our guys, it'll bump 'em down. If JJSS signs a 1 year $12M deal with someone? That'll give us a 4th and bump us to nothing for Alualu as you can only get 4 comp picks per team. Big Al signs for more APY than Hilton or Alualu, we'll get whatever comp Al garners and bump another lost FA out.