To trade down or not? An analysis

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PennyBacker
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Re: To trade down or not? An analysis

Post by PennyBacker » Sat Apr 24, 2021 3:04 pm

Very intriguing analysis. Solid concept, outstanding effort and a timely presentation of data. I would agree with the assessment that the teams who traded back generally got the better end of the deals.

Yet even without comparing the individual swaps, moving around in draft position would look to create two prominent developments. Trading back does not mean that a team will miss out on a quality player, actually they frequently end up with a very good player and the opportunity for more players. Whereas trading up does not ensure that the player acquired will be an exceptional pro, but in fact, the risk that the player will be a disappointment looks as though it grows.

Perhaps an interesting caveat for those who have been insisting that the next franchise QB of the future will have to be acquired via a top 5 or 10 pick.

Maybe the best bet there would be to trade out of the first round into the second during the current year, and acquire the other team’s first for the following year in the process. Denver would be an enchanting partner for swapping some picks with in this draft under that scenario.



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anpsteel
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Post by anpsteel » Sat Apr 24, 2021 8:08 pm

My top 4 draft targets in order are

Jamin Davis
Zaven Collins
Javonte Williams
Najee Harris


I have that ILB position rated higher in position value- and really need, so that's why the LBs are on top.

Also, I think the media lovefest with the Steelers and Najee Harris is just a smoke screen. Not that they wouldn't take him, but to throw the competition off the trail of their real target.


Now- the real trick here, is, how do they get the LB and the RB.

If they can trade down a few spots and still get the LB (which I'm doubtful) but for the sake of it- Lets assume it's most likely an NFC team, or at least not a division rival.

24 Pitt
25 Jax
26 Clev
27 Balt
28 New O
29 GBay
30 Sea

Removing Clev & Balt, imo, those are your prospective trade partners-

Anyway, the intent would be to move a few down, and still obtain either Collins or Davis, aquire a little more capital, because you'll need to trade up in the 2nd to get one of the running backs.

In reality, I think they stay put. Jamin Davis is the pick and then trade up in the 2nd to grab Javonte Williams

just my thoughts

Orangesteel
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Post by Orangesteel » Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:02 am

SEA doesn’t have the 30th pick.

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anpsteel
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Post by anpsteel » Sun Apr 25, 2021 1:50 pm

Orangesteel wrote:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 6:02 am
SEA doesn’t have the 30th pick.
Yeah, not sure how I did that. lol

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jebrick
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Post by jebrick » Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm

Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
"I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts."

- Mark Twain

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tbsteel
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Post by tbsteel » Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:22 am

jebrick wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm
Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
I just can't picture the Steelers trading out of the first round. I just don't think it's in their DNA, for better or worse, especially after not having a first last year.

In the small chance they do trade down, I can picture a minor move down of 5-7 spots or so to pick up an extra fourth for example. And then I can see them bundling two of their fourths to move back into the third. They just don't value the idea of having a ton of picks.

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Suwanee88
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Post by Suwanee88 » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:18 am

Did you hear Colbert talk yesterday? He said they are focused on these 8 picks.

I believe him.

They don’t even conduct mock drafts - a waste of time per Colbert.

I truly wonder if they even pick up the phone and attempt to move back or do they just wait for the phone to ring. I believe he moves around less than any other established GM per a recent news story.

Can not wait for Art2 to retire and hoping for an agressive Rooney inline to shake things up!

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jebrick
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Post by jebrick » Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:45 am

tbsteel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:22 am
jebrick wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm
Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
I just can't picture the Steelers trading out of the first round. I just don't think it's in their DNA, for better or worse, especially after not having a first last year.

In the small chance they do trade down, I can picture a minor move down of 5-7 spots or so to pick up an extra fourth for example. And then I can see them bundling two of their fourths to move back into the third. They just don't value the idea of having a ton of picks.
I agree. They will rush to the podium again. Colbert would fail the marshmallow test badly I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_ ... experiment
"I am not one of those who in expressing opinions confine themselves to facts."

- Mark Twain

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tbsteel
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Post by tbsteel » Tue Apr 27, 2021 2:24 pm

jebrick wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:45 am
tbsteel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:22 am
jebrick wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm
Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
I just can't picture the Steelers trading out of the first round. I just don't think it's in their DNA, for better or worse, especially after not having a first last year.

In the small chance they do trade down, I can picture a minor move down of 5-7 spots or so to pick up an extra fourth for example. And then I can see them bundling two of their fourths to move back into the third. They just don't value the idea of having a ton of picks.
I agree. They will rush to the podium again. Colbert would fail the marshmallow test badly I think.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanford_ ... experiment
:lol: Good point. Colbert would devour it before the tester even had a chance to leave the room.

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anpsteel
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Post by anpsteel » Tue Apr 27, 2021 9:25 pm

jebrick wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm
Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
I would love to see that, under the right circumstances.

If they can get 2 picks in the top 45, while not trading out of the 3rd round - that would be perfect.

You *might be able to get an impact player with the first of those, then the RB with the 2nd of the two inside 45 and (I'm looking at ILB, CB/S & RB with those first two picks) then grab your Center in the 3rd

stillthere
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Post by stillthere » Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:51 pm

tbsteel wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 3:22 am
jebrick wrote:
Mon Apr 26, 2021 7:02 pm
Could this be the year? From Colbert's press conference

https://twitter.com/steelers/status/1386727044202078218

Really shocking to hear him talk so openly about it and even reference division opponents and 5 spots without batting an eye. I wonder if he’s had preliminary talks with the Ravens already (only team I can think of wanting to move up for Bateman) but again nothing me by only talking about the first pick and not the full compensation. If Baltimore gives up 28, 94, 171 that’s the point differential to move up. So you can still get that RB but you get a 3 and 5 to give you moving up in Rd 2 options if you need it.
I just can't picture the Steelers trading out of the first round. I just don't think it's in their DNA, for better or worse, especially after not having a first last year.

In the small chance they do trade down, I can picture a minor move down of 5-7 spots or so to pick up an extra fourth for example. And then I can see them bundling two of their fourths to move back into the third. They just don't value the idea of having a ton of picks.
They basically drafted Minkah 14 games early last year. It is not like they did not get a player with a first round grade last year.

I would have no problem at all with them trading down to later in the first or out of it completely if it gets them another pick or 2 in the top 100ish picks.

stillthere
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Post by stillthere » Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:52 pm

Suwanee88 wrote:
Tue Apr 27, 2021 11:18 am
Did you hear Colbert talk yesterday? He said they are focused on these 8 picks.

I believe him.

They don’t even conduct mock drafts - a waste of time per Colbert.

I truly wonder if they even pick up the phone and attempt to move back or do they just wait for the phone to ring. I believe he moves around less than any other established GM per a recent news story.

Can not wait for Art2 to retire and hoping for an agressive Rooney inline to shake things up!
Do you think Denver called them about Bush 2 drafts ago? Maybe, just maybe Colbert called them about moving up in the draft.

stillthere
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Post by stillthere » Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:54 pm

Minkah Coates wrote:
Thu Apr 29, 2021 8:41 pm
The Steelers trade up when needed.

The Steelers drade down.........when exactly????
Casey Hampton was the last trade down in the Colbert era.

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