Steelers 2021 Draft: The Optimistic Pessimist (or Vice-Versa)

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Steelers 2021 Draft: The Optimistic Pessimist (or Vice-Versa)

Post by bradshaw2ben » Sun May 02, 2021 8:37 pm

https://steelerfury.com/steelers-draft- ... stic-view/
When you are obsessed with the draft, spend months evaluating players on tape, and pore over/try to find deep meaning in pro day results... the actual draft results for your team are always disheartening. There is a disappointment when they don't just choose from among the many players you'd expect but, instead, do things like, say, trade a 4th round pick for a player in the 5th round that nobody thought would be drafted.



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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun May 02, 2021 9:14 pm

Good read.......i agree
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Post by tbsteel » Sun May 02, 2021 9:16 pm

Pretty fair takes.

I feel pretty confident about Harris. Unless the o-line is a complete disaster, I think he has a chance to be our best player on offense from day 1 and a huge fan favorite. Green matching up with the Steelers is a perfect fit and I’m hopeful he’s a quality starter. As for the rest? We’ll see. Hopefully a few of them work out.

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Post by COR-TEN » Sun May 02, 2021 9:20 pm

Count me in with the group that thinks drafting/ grading college players is a crapshoot. There are so many variables and moving parts involved. AB was a 6th rounder. Brady? How many first or second rounders turned out to be HOF talent? No. I didn't do any research.
Last edited by COR-TEN on Sun May 02, 2021 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by tbsteel » Sun May 02, 2021 9:21 pm

Another quick point: I think Perch said pre-draft that the two biggest holes on the roster were RB and C. Were there two better fits for what the Steelers look for at those spots than Harris and Green in the entire draft? I don’t think so. If another guy or two works out and those two are legit? That’s an awesome draft.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Sun May 02, 2021 9:30 pm

RB C .......without a doubt prior to the draft we were the worst in the NFL at those positions

TE was near the bottom too......

I hope the Steelers dont waste time getting Harris Friermuth Green and Moore snaps......if those 4 can develop fast......we might be ok
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Post by stillthere » Sun May 02, 2021 11:36 pm

I personally am optimistic. Was I thrilled with all the picks and where they were drafted, probably not. I think they acquired some good talent and now it is a matter of mixing that talent into the roster. I am more intrigued by the PSU TE as the hours have gone by. Hopefully having some decent 12 personnel sets will help the running game and passing game.

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Post by Steeldrama » Mon May 03, 2021 12:32 am

You had me at...
trade a 4th round pick for a player in the 5th round that nobody thought would be drafted.
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Post by bradshaw2ben » Mon May 03, 2021 12:42 am

stillthere wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:36 pm
I personally am optimistic. Was I thrilled with all the picks and where they were drafted, probably not. I think they acquired some good talent and now it is a matter of mixing that talent into the roster. I am more intrigued by the PSU TE as the hours have gone by. Hopefully having some decent 12 personnel sets will help the running game and passing game.
Which stud WR are you taking off the field for that?

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Post by stillthere » Mon May 03, 2021 2:19 am

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Mon May 03, 2021 12:42 am
stillthere wrote:
Sun May 02, 2021 11:36 pm
I personally am optimistic. Was I thrilled with all the picks and where they were drafted, probably not. I think they acquired some good talent and now it is a matter of mixing that talent into the roster. I am more intrigued by the PSU TE as the hours have gone by. Hopefully having some decent 12 personnel sets will help the running game and passing game.
Which stud WR are you taking off the field for that?
They can rotate snaps off and on just like the TE's I am not saying 12 all the time but 12 personnel stresses defenses on early downs.

If the D subs with more of a run stopping personnel when Pat comes onto the field then you run a play that spreads out the defenders nobody inline make the larger defenders defend space. If they keep the same D personnel on the field when a WR comes off then you would probably be in a good situation to run with at least 1 TE inline if not both.

Variety, give em some 12 personnel, give em some 1 back 4 wide, give em some Harris and Snell and line up Harris in the slot. Make the D adjust to things they don't want to do. Variety allows you to dictate just like running the ball down the middle allows you to dictate. If you can run up the middle you can do what ever you want in a football game.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Mon May 03, 2021 3:27 am

Yeah, I think that's the right answer. I also will be shocked if Canada doesn't run some Jaylen Samuels or Anthony McFarland as a flanker/H-Back and run the ball from there. If Freiermuth turns out to be a better receiver than I think, then it opens up more options.

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Post by Stillenigma » Mon May 03, 2021 3:48 pm

I think McFarland is going to get a lot more run this year than most think. I could see him getting the second most snaps behind Harris, and by a large margin. Not because I think he's anything special, but because he's going to be more comfortable in Canada's offense. I hated the draft pick as to me the PS look at all the wrong things for RB, but he'll either be reasonably successful this year or out of the league in a year or two.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Mon May 03, 2021 9:22 pm

Gotta believe Ant Mac and JaySam are at least going to get a shot to do what target did for Canada in college. I mean it may not work in the NFL but it’s a known quantity to both the players and the OC.

So funny autocorrect changed “theplayers” to “okayeds”. Insightful, Siri!

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Post by cop1211 » Wed May 05, 2021 12:32 am

Of the top 10 rushers last season only 1 was a first round pick, and he was number 10 of the top ten.

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Post by Steeldrama » Wed May 05, 2021 2:39 am

cop1211 wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:32 am
Of the top 10 rushers last season only 1 was a first round pick, and he was number 10 of the top ten.
Of the 32 running backs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame 27...that’s 27.... were drafted in the 1st round (including those listed as a fullback like Earl Campbell).

Of all the draft things to be upset over, selecting the best running back in the draft that fills a HUGE need should not be one of them.

If you want something to bitch about, the shit-off stupid decision to burn what could be a very high 2022 4th round pick on Isaiah Loudermilk a listed UDFA by nearly every draftnik with a working brain SHOULD be at the top of your list.

Baffling decision that still has me annoyed 3 days later and will mostly cling to until I see the stiff put pads on.
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Post by cop1211 » Wed May 05, 2021 5:26 am

They’ll be drafting another RB in 5 years.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed May 05, 2021 10:41 am

Steeldrama wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:39 am
cop1211 wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:32 am
Of the top 10 rushers last season only 1 was a first round pick, and he was number 10 of the top ten.
Of the 32 running backs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame 27...that’s 27.... were drafted in the 1st round (including those listed as a fullback like Earl Campbell).

Of all the draft things to be upset over, selecting the best running back in the draft that fills a HUGE need should not be one of them.

If you want something to bitch about, the shit-off stupid decision to burn what could be a very high 2022 4th round pick on Isaiah Loudermilk a listed UDFA by nearly every draftnik with a working brain SHOULD be at the top of your list.

Baffling decision that still has me annoyed 3 days later and will mostly cling to until I see the stiff put pads on.
How many HOF RBs were starters on their Super Bowl winning teams in anything resembling the recent era of football? I mean, that's more the nitpick. Anyone saying Harris isn't likely to be a great RB for a team that seems to need RB more than most is arguing against all that is holy.

But whether having an All-Pro-type bell-cow RB increases your Super Bowl chances, it kinda seems like it doesn't. Maybe Marshawn Lynch is viewed as a HOF RB someday. Then I think you're going back to 1993-2000, where 6 of 8 SB winners featured a starting HOF RB... and it hasn't been close to "SB winner wins with featured run game and defense" since probably 2005.

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Post by stillthere » Wed May 05, 2021 2:14 pm

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 10:41 am
Then I think you're going back to 1993-2000, where 6 of 8 SB winners featured a starting HOF RB... and it hasn't been close to "SB winner wins with featured run game and defense" since probably 2005.
Or 2020 Tampa's D worked KC's O and the Buccaneers running game also was getting about 5 yards whenever they ran it in the superbowl.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed May 05, 2021 3:30 pm

stillthere wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:14 pm
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 10:41 am
Then I think you're going back to 1993-2000, where 6 of 8 SB winners featured a starting HOF RB... and it hasn't been close to "SB winner wins with featured run game and defense" since probably 2005.
Or 2020 Tampa's D worked KC's O and the Buccaneers running game also was getting about 5 yards whenever they ran it in the superbowl.
They were getting 5 yards a pop because KC set their whole defense to try and stop the passing game, whereas TB has those two LBs so they can play base most downs. This is why LBs who can really cover are more important than RBs.

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Post by Mick » Wed May 05, 2021 4:45 pm

Steeldrama wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 2:39 am
cop1211 wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 12:32 am
Of the top 10 rushers last season only 1 was a first round pick, and he was number 10 of the top ten.
Of the 32 running backs in the Pro Football Hall of Fame 27...that’s 27.... were drafted in the 1st round (including those listed as a fullback like Earl Campbell).

Of all the draft things to be upset over, selecting the best running back in the draft that fills a HUGE need should not be one of them.

If you want something to bitch about, the shit-off stupid decision to burn what could be a very high 2022 4th round pick on Isaiah Loudermilk a listed UDFA by nearly every draftnik with a working brain SHOULD be at the top of your list.

Baffling decision that still has me annoyed 3 days later and will mostly cling to until I see the stiff put pads on.
from the HoF RBs i could find quickly, 25 went early, but all 25 were taken in the top 18. Between the 19th pick and 73rd pick, i see...1?

From that perspective, 24th would seem like about the worst place in the draft to go RB, “let’s spend as high a pick as we possibly can without risking the potential of drafting someone truly great.”

That said, i’m actually not opposed to going RB around that draft position, i’ve just seen a fair number of posts arguing that the first round is the place to be for RBs based on guys like Ezekiel Elliott/Adrian Peterson/Barry Sanders etc when those guys went very high in the first round, where the 16-30 range has been kind of a runningback desert both from the HoF perspective and from recent drafts. And i think that’s misleading.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm

Ezekiel Elliott/Adrian Peterson/Barry Sanders
WTF good are those three guys? What have they ever won? In this era of football, your stud RB isn't carrying your team. They're more of a closer, so if you have a good team that can set you up with the lead in the 4th Q, a stud closer can come in and make the endgame a foregone conclusion. Otherwise, it's just costing points on 80% of the other snaps.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Wed May 05, 2021 5:32 pm

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm
Ezekiel Elliott/Adrian Peterson/Barry Sanders
WTF good are those three guys? What have they ever won? In this era of football, your stud RB isn't carrying your team. They're more of a closer, so if you have a good team that can set you up with the lead in the 4th Q, a stud closer can come in and make the endgame a foregone conclusion. Otherwise, it's just costing points on 80% of the other snaps.

I think that is the right analogy
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Post by Mick » Wed May 05, 2021 6:27 pm

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm
Ezekiel Elliott/Adrian Peterson/Barry Sanders
WTF good are those three guys? What have they ever won? In this era of football, your stud RB isn't carrying your team. They're more of a closer, so if you have a good team that can set you up with the lead in the 4th Q, a stud closer can come in and make the endgame a foregone conclusion. Otherwise, it's just costing points on 80% of the other snaps.
i think good rbs are more valuable than you suggest.

But being drafted top 5 overall at one of the shortest career positions in the league doesn’t really set you up with good odds of picking up easy rings.

I mean, what did Bruce Smith, Kevin Greene, Julius Peppers, Chris Doleman, and Jason Taylor win? Nothing? Does that prove pass rush is irrelevant, or maybe just that being a franchise-caliber player at a position other than qb more often than not just locks you into a mediocre franchise?

As a player, if you want to win rings, i recommend being an elite quarterback or being a low-cost quality role player with a long career. But as a team looking for players to draft, i’d rather try to get the next Adrian Peterson than the next LeGarrette Blount.

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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed May 05, 2021 7:09 pm

I think that’s precisely the formula: stud quarterback and low cost role players who enjoy being role players

If you don’t pull out all the stops to get a stud quarterback, then the rest of it doesn’t really matter

And since getting an elite quarterback may take a long period of time and it involves uncertainty, the best thing you can do is to invest hi draft picks in players who can help more and for a longer period of time.

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Post by Steeldrama » Wed May 05, 2021 7:20 pm

Mick wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 6:27 pm
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm
Ezekiel Elliott/Adrian Peterson/Barry Sanders
WTF good are those three guys? What have they ever won? In this era of football, your stud RB isn't carrying your team. They're more of a closer, so if you have a good team that can set you up with the lead in the 4th Q, a stud closer can come in and make the endgame a foregone conclusion. Otherwise, it's just costing points on 80% of the other snaps.
i think good rbs are more valuable than you suggest.

But being drafted top 5 overall at one of the shortest career positions in the league doesn’t really set you up with good odds of picking up easy rings.

I mean, what did Bruce Smith, Kevin Greene, Julius Peppers, Chris Doleman, and Jason Taylor win? Nothing? Does that prove pass rush is irrelevant, or maybe just that being a franchise-caliber player at a position other than qb more often than not just locks you into a mediocre franchise?

As a player, if you want to win rings, i recommend being an elite quarterback or being a low-cost quality role player with a long career. But as a team looking for players to draft, i’d rather try to get the next Adrian Peterson than the next LeGarrette Blount.
^
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Post by bradshaw2ben » Wed May 05, 2021 7:51 pm

Did you notice home all the defensive you mentioned were from an earlier era. Now it’s more likely if you were top EDGE that you’re goinG to win a championship. Times bags changed it’s no longer 1974 or 1995 even.

You guys can see I gave the pick a high grade because the player is great but the strategy will forevermore be second guessed.

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Post by Mick » Wed May 05, 2021 8:28 pm

bradshaw2ben wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 7:51 pm
Did you notice home all the defensive you mentioned were from an earlier era. Now it’s more likely if you were top EDGE that you’re goinG to win a championship. Times bags changed it’s no longer 1974 or 1995 even.

You guys can see I gave the pick a high grade because the player is great but the strategy will forevermore be second guessed.
those were just guys from top 6 all time in sacks; hard to view peppers as being a “player from a different era”. But these days, JJ Watt? TJ Watt? DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, etc. The top 8 edge rushers last season by sacks have a combined 0 rings.

I’m being a little cherry picky; reggie white was #2 overall, but got a ring at the end of his career by jumping to a team that was already flirting with winning it all. But in general for positions other than qb/hc i don’t view rings as a useful indicator.

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Post by SteelerDayTrader » Wed May 05, 2021 8:50 pm

But as a team looking for players to draft, i’d rather try to get the next Adrian Peterson than the next LeGarrette Blount.

Lombardi's are what matters tho....LG has 3 of 'em
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Post by Mick » Wed May 05, 2021 9:42 pm

SteelerDayTrader wrote:
Wed May 05, 2021 8:50 pm
But as a team looking for players to draft, i’d rather try to get the next Adrian Peterson than the next LeGarrette Blount.

Lombardi's are what matters tho....LG has 3 of 'em
none for his original team.

Anyway, in addition to ‘elite qb’ and ‘bunch of low cost, effective role players’ i would say a third key ingredient in championships is ‘a lot of great draft picks in a short period of time’.

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