Looking ahead to the Playoffs

[Pabst]

First things first: Someone needs to take over game threads for the post season. Mrs Pabst is due any day now, so I'll have other priorities than gameday hockey threads

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So, the Pens have locked up the #1 seed, and the Caps will be #2. The Bruins will be #3 if either of the following happens:
- Tonight's game goes into OT
- The win either tonight vs NYI or tomorrow vs Washington

There are some conspiracy theorists around the internet (mostly on Caps' forums) suggesting the Bruins will tank the final two matchups in order to face the Pens in round 1. Here's why that's bullshit:
- As good as the Bruins have been against the Pens this season, they have been better against Washington
- As bad as the Islanders have been against Pittsburgh, they have been worse against the Caps
- Tonight's game is in Boston. The Islanders are a bad team on the road. It takes two to tango - If Boston does indeed want to tank, there is no reason to think the Isles' necessarily want to jump into 3rd. NY has just as much incentive to tank as Boston does.


Looking at the teams in the East division:
- The Caps are the walking wounded right now. Backstrom, Ovie, and Carlson are all DTD. Kuznetsov and Samsonov are both in COVID protocol. Tom Wilson has exited each of their last 2 games with an injury. Oshie got hurt in the first on Saturday and didn't return. The other big problem for the Caps down the stretch is they haven't been able to bring up any players due to salary cap constraints. I don't actually see this as bad luck - I see this as a result of playing a physical brand of hockey with the league's oldest team. Also, can anyone recall the Caps dealing with injury issues at any time over the last few years? Backstrom missed 3 games last post season, and Oshie has missed some time here and there, but a big part of this team's success in the past decade has been their uncanny ability to avoid injuries to key players.

- I'll be honest, I don't get Boston. Yes, their scoring has been better since acquiring Taylor Hall, but.....they have also blown their shot at home ice (and the division, for that matter) by losing to NJ and the Rangers down the stretch. The depth on this team truly isn't good. How far can the 'perfection line' carry them in the playoffs?

- The Islanders acquired Zajac and Palmeri on April 7th. Since that date, they are 7-7-2. That's not good.....It's made even worse when you notice they are 0-4-1 against playoff teams in that stretch. In the last week, the Islanders have gone 1-2-1 against Buffalo and NJ. Talk about limping into the playoffs. Among playoff teams, only Nashville has scored fewer goals. Now factor in their poor road record. Yes, the memory of the 2019 playoffs is still there, but the Isles look like an ideal match up.


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Around the league:
- Vegas can lock up the Presidents Trophy with a win tonight over Colorado. The West has been funny to watch lately, because it seemed like no one wanted the #4 seed in that division. STL, SJ, Arizona, and LA were all pretty lousy over the last few weeks.

- Carolina has locked up the Central and will play Nashville round 1. Tampa is really starting to fade.

- The North sucks. Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Foligno, and John Tavares? That would have been a terrifying lineup 7 or 8 years ago. Dominik Kahun is currently skating on the Oilers' top line, just in case you were wondering about the depth on that team. In 7 games playing on the same line as McDavid, he has 2 points. Yeah. Winnipeg is 3-9-0 over the last month. Montreal sucks without Price.




In a way. the East Division kind of feels like SEC football - Whichever team can escape will be battle tested and a force to be reckoned with.

[fractalsteel]

First things first: Someone needs to take over game threads for the post season. Mrs Pabst is due any day now, so I'll have other priorities than gameday hockey threads

----------------------------------------

So, the Pens have locked up the #1 seed, and the Caps will be #2. The Bruins will be #3 if either of the following happens:
- Tonight's game goes into OT
- The win either tonight vs NYI or tomorrow vs Washington

There are some conspiracy theorists around the internet (mostly on Caps' forums) suggesting the Bruins will tank the final two matchups in order to face the Pens in round 1. Here's why that's bullshit:
- As good as the Bruins have been against the Pens this season, they have been better against Washington
- As bad as the Islanders have been against Pittsburgh, they have been worse against the Caps
- Tonight's game is in Boston. The Islanders are a bad team on the road. It takes two to tango - If Boston does indeed want to tank, there is no reason to think the Isles' necessarily want to jump into 3rd. NY has just as much incentive to tank as Boston does.


Looking at the teams in the East division:
- The Caps are the walking wounded right now. Backstrom, Ovie, and Carlson are all DTD. Kuznetsov and Samsonov are both in COVID protocol. Tom Wilson has exited each of their last 2 games with an injury. Oshie got hurt in the first on Saturday and didn't return. The other big problem for the Caps down the stretch is they haven't been able to bring up any players due to salary cap constraints. I don't actually see this as bad luck - I see this as a result of playing a physical brand of hockey with the league's oldest team. Also, can anyone recall the Caps dealing with injury issues at any time over the last few years? Backstrom missed 3 games last post season, and Oshie has missed some time here and there, but a big part of this team's success in the past decade has been their uncanny ability to avoid injuries to key players.

- I'll be honest, I don't get Boston. Yes, their scoring has been better since acquiring Taylor Hall, but.....they have also blown their shot at home ice (and the division, for that matter) by losing to NJ and the Rangers down the stretch. The depth on this team truly isn't good. How far can the 'perfection line' carry them in the playoffs?

- The Islanders acquired Zajac and Palmeri on April 7th. Since that date, they are 7-7-2. That's not good.....It's made even worse when you notice they are 0-4-1 against playoff teams in that stretch. In the last week, the Islanders have gone 1-2-1 against Buffalo and NJ. Talk about limping into the playoffs. Among playoff teams, only Nashville has scored fewer goals. Now factor in their poor road record. Yes, the memory of the 2019 playoffs is still there, but the Isles look like an ideal match up.


----------------------------------------

Around the league:
- Vegas can lock up the Presidents Trophy with a win tonight over Colorado. The West has been funny to watch lately, because it seemed like no one wanted the #4 seed in that division. STL, SJ, Arizona, and LA were all pretty lousy over the last few weeks.

- Carolina has locked up the Central and will play Nashville round 1. Tampa is really starting to fade.

- The North sucks. Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Foligno, and John Tavares? That would have been a terrifying lineup 7 or 8 years ago. Dominik Kahun is currently skating on the Oilers' top line, just in case you were wondering about the depth on that team. In 7 games playing on the same line as McDavid, he has 2 points. Yeah. Winnipeg is 3-9-0 over the last month. Montreal sucks without Price.




In a way. the East Division kind of feels like SEC football - Whichever team can escape will be battle tested and a force to be reckoned with.

I'd offer to the threads but my track record the past few postseasons hasn't been very good.
Maybe Orangesteel, DP39, Stillthere, B2B?

Pabst, I agree with most of your assessments but I just can't pick a favorite yet. This is such a unique tourney and when they get out of the divisional round it could be anyone.
Honestly, I would rather face the Islanders and let Boston and DC beat the shit out of one another. I don't want to have to face both DC and Boston to come out of the East.

BTW Pabst, ever consider naming one of your kids fractal?

Good luck with it all and we all wish you and your wife only the best.

[Pabst]

Thanks, fractal!

Sidney was actually on my short list, but it got nixed rather quickly. One nice thing about twins is that it's pretty easy to reach a compromise on names.....at least it was for us. There's still time to change to fractal, though

Good point on a possible Boston/Washington matchup in round 1 - There's already bad blood between them, so that series would be a war.

I feel like so many people are getting hung up on the Pens/Isles series from 2019.
- That was 2 years ago
- NY has not looked good over the past 6 weeks.
- The Pens have had plenty of success vs Barry Trotz teams in the past

Btw, I'll add Ice to your list for possible thread starters.

[fractalsteel]

Ice would be a great choice as well.

Swiss did the back to back finals but have not seen him around in a while.

One player worries me in this division and that is Rask.

[Orangesteel]

Best of luck Pabst. My youngest daughter was born the day the pens got bounced from the playoffs August 7th so it was easy to miss that game.

I can help with the game threads but admittedly I am really shitty at listing the lines, etc. Does someone want to start and I can be on deck if we need to change course because they ain’t winning? Hope it doesn’t happen.

And good recap going into the post season. I am with fractal; I would love for WAS and BOS to have to go through each other because I can’t stand both of those teams. The Pens have surprised me this season and I really hope to be able to watch hockey into June. LGP.

[Ice]

I'll put the thread, lines, etc. up to start, but having someone on deck in case we need a change of mojo would be a plan. I'm 0-0 and 0 for my career.

I just wish they could start this thing tomorrow. Team's playing well, and while it doesn't hurt to get some rest and health, love me some momentum.

[SteelPro]

Thanks, fractal!

Sidney was actually on my short list, but it got nixed rather quickly. One nice thing about twins is that it's pretty easy to reach a compromise on names.....at least it was for us. There's still time to change to fractal, though

Good point on a possible Boston/Washington matchup in round 1 - There's already bad blood between them, so that series would be a war.

I feel like so many people are getting hung up on the Pens/Isles series from 2019.
- That was 2 years ago
- NY has not looked good over the past 6 weeks.
- The Pens have had plenty of success vs Barry Trotz teams in the past

Btw, I'll add Ice to your list for possible thread starters.

So what was the compromise? She gets to name the 1st rd draft pick and you get the 2nd?

[Pabst]

So what was the compromise? She gets to name the 1st rd draft pick and you get the 2nd?

You're not far off, actually. We just each got to pick our preferred name.

[Pabst]

Oh, Boston/NY just went into OT. It's officially Pens vs Islanders in Round 1. Boston will travel to DC.

[Orangesteel]

Oh, Boston/NY just went into OT. It's officially Pens vs Islanders in Round 1. Boston will travel to DC.

The only thing that concerns me is Barry Trotz factor. They still need to have the talent, but you can’t argue the fact that Trotz has seemed to have cracked the Crosby/Sully code.

[Ice]

My hope is that a healthy lineup with Carter centering the 3rd line will be harder to crack than the last few years. He's the best we've had there in a while.

[swissvale72]

Ice would be a great choice as well.

Swiss did the back to back finals but have not seen him around in a while.

One player worries me in this division and that is Rask.

Had forgotten that I contributed in such a substantial way to the double Stanley cup run!! I'm sure that my friend ice will just as well. If you need any tips, or encouragement, ice, I'm always just a post away.

[Ice]

Ice would be a great choice as well.

Swiss did the back to back finals but have not seen him around in a while.

One player worries me in this division and that is Rask.

Had forgotten that I contributed in such a substantial way to the double Stanley cup run!! I'm sure that my friend ice will just as well. If you need any tips, or encouragement, ice, I'm always just a post away.

Long as we stay off of all things PSU and AB, I tend to enjoy Swiss' posts a lot, honestly. Any and all encouragement and/or local color is always appreciated, man!

[Pabst]

Oh, Boston/NY just went into OT. It's officially Pens vs Islanders in Round 1. Boston will travel to DC.

The only thing that concerns me is Barry Trotz factor. They still need to have the talent, but you can’t argue the fact that Trotz has seemed to have cracked the Crosby/Sully code.

Sullivan has bested Trotz twice in the post-season, and is 2-2 overall. Interestingly, this is the first time in 5 post-season meetings that the Pens will have home ice. This also might be the weakest team Trotz has brought into the playoffs since his days in Nashville.


All that said, he has an uncanny ability to get the most out of his goalies. I still have nightmares about Robin Lehner posting a .950+ save %.

[Pabst]

Game 1 of Washington/Boston has been scheduled for Saturday, May 15th at 7:15.

Probably a safe bet that the Pens & Isles start over the weekend as well.

[Ice]

I'd love a Friday Game One, but that's not a lot of notice for the home crowd at PPG... oh, wait...

[Ice]

Tanev and Matheson full practice participants.

[Pabst]

Matheson is wearing a full cage. Rodrigues practiced today as well.

Tanev has been full contact at practice since May 3rd. I'd be shocked if he's not out there for Game 1.

[DP39]

So if everyone's healthy, what are the lines to start the playoffs against the NYI?

Where exactly do Evan Rodrigues, Frederick Gaudreau and Jason Zucker fit in?

I would think Zucker has the edge on starting; from there I'm not so sure. I think E-Rod is the better defensive player and Gaurdreau is the better skater and passer (which helps line 2 and or 3). Is it best that Zucker goes the 4th line and bumps ZAR to the bench? Just thinking outside the box, of course.

Although he seems like a misfit toy, Zucker has to start somewhere, right? They wouldn't bench him, would they?

Thoughts?

Forwards

Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust

Jason Zucker (?) - Evgeni Malkin - Kasperi Kapanen

Jared McCann - Jeff Carter - Frederick Gaudreau (?)

Zach Aston-Reese - Teddy Blueger - Brandon Tanev

Defense (no questions really)

Brian Dumoulin / Kris Letang

Mike Matheson / Cody Ceci

Marcus Pettersson / John Marino

[Pabst]

Where exactly do Evan Rodrigues, Frederick Gaudreau and Jason Zucker fit in?

Zucker is Malkin's RW. I feel like our expectations got out of whack given Zucker's red hot start when he came to Pittsburgh last year. Zucker had 4 points (2 goals, 2 assists) in the 4 games since Geno's return. He played well down the stretch. The guy is a top 6 winger.


Speaking of playing well down the stretch....Gaudreau has clicked with Carter. Sure, it might be a fluke and/or level of competition, but goddamn does that McCann-Carter-Gaudreau line look good. Let it be for now.


I'm fine with keeping Rodrigues on the bench - let him completely heal up. Plus, his value is in his versatility. If/when someone gets dinged, let ERod slide in for a few games.


We haven't even talked about the likes of Colton Sceviour, Mark Jankowski, or Anthony Angello. On D they've got Yannick Weber, Mark Friedman, Ruh, Riikola, and POJ.

This team is incredibly deep.

[fractalsteel]

Top line= untouchable unless injury
Second line= I prefer Rodrigues over Zucker because he is willing to do all the dirty work you need from one of your wingers. Kinda like Kuntiz was with Malkin and Rust before he left. Zucker isn't willing to do the dirty work. You have no second center for FO's either.
That said, you can' bounce Zucker to the fourth, he is a top six winger.
No WAY do I touch the third line unless things go awry or injuries. That line is clicking and the chemistry b/n the three is there.
When Blueger is your fourth line center you know you are deep. Like Pabst said, there are guys eating nachos who can be plugged into the 4th line with little to no drop off.

I like Sceviour a great deal and he is a nice piece if needed.

The top line will be the big offensive line and I think the third line will check in a good bit there as well. I can almost see the second line being a defensive line. Remember in the cup runs Malkin was the Pens best defensive forward. Kap is no slouch in that regard either.

To me, one of Sullivan's strengths is that he is able to see what changes need to be made in a long series after a few games if changes need to be made. He was a master of that on the cup runs a few years ago.

I don't think we need Jarry to be Ken Dryden but he is the crucial part. You won't get far in the playoffs with average goaltending. I'm hoping he is well rested when the real season starts.

[Ice]

Those were the lines and pairings from practice, DP, so your thinking seems to be in line with the staff's.

[DP39]

Thanks for the thoughts, fellas. I agree on the lines and "too much" depth is certainly a great problem to have.

Here's hoping for a healthy 1st round sweep for our guys, while the Caps/Bruins beat the living shit out of each other over a seven game bloodbath.

The playoffs can't start fast enough for me.

LGP!

Oh, and Pabst, good luck to you and Mrs. Pabst on your soon to arrive newborn. If your experience is anything like mine, parenthood will be the greatest thing you'll ever do in life. Cherish it and enjoy the ride!

[Ice]

This team has definitely traveled a hero's journey up to this point, can't wait to see the results.

[Pabst]

Currently reading some thoughts on the Pens/Isles. Just out of curiosity, I went back and pulled the lines from 2019. There has been a 50% turnover in the roster over the past 2 years.....safe to say this isn't the same team. And those defensive pairings. Yikes.

GAME 1:
Guentzel - Crosby - Rust
McCann - Malkin - Hornqvist
Simon - Bjugstad - Kessel
ZAR - Cullen - Wilson

Dumoulin - Letang
Maatta - Schultz
Pettersson - Gudbranson


GAME 2:
Guentzel - Crosby - Rust
ZAR - Malkin - Hornqvist
Simon - Bjugstad - Kessel
Blueger - Cullen - Wilson

Dumoulin - Letang
JJ - Schultz
Pettersson - Gudbranson

[Ice]

JFnJ, Schultz, Guddy all additions by their subtraction, to this point. The forwards are considerably better than last time, as well.

Play good defense on Barzal, get some scoring going, an even mix of stars and depth, to build offensive confidence, and at least on paper, we'll hopefully see a better result. Oh, and make sure that road PK does its job.

LGP!!!

[Pabst]

Important updates:

Pens Inside Scoop
@PensInsideScoop
Injury updates from Coach Sullivan: "Mike Matheson and Evan Rodrigues participated in a full capacity. Tans did as well. Casey DeSmith and Geno participated in the practice part. They did not take part in the scrimmage, and that was a coach's decision."

Pittsburgh Penguins
@penguins
The Penguins are pleased to announce that capacity for playoff games at PPG Paints Arena will increase to 50% as of Monday, May 17.

Varlamov didn't practice for NY today, but it sounds precautionary.


Still no update on when the game will actually take place.

[fractalsteel]

Garrett Wilson.
We have brought in half a dozen better players to fill his spot the past few years.
Speaking of Wilson, I have a signed puck from him(lucky me) and I use it as a drink coaster.

[Pabst]

Garrett Wilson.
We have brought in half a dozen better players to fill his spot the past few years.
Speaking of Wilson, I have a signed puck from him(lucky me) and I use it as a drink coaster.

I remember this conversation....you got the Wilson puck in your 2019 charity bag. I wound up with a Lemieux puck and a Matt Cullen autographed jersey


Really, the most important change since 2019 has been Zucker. Say what you want about his production/consistency....he is light years ahead of Dominik Simon. Jeff Carter is everything we hoped Bjugstad would be. Oh, funny story - Bjugstad and Bonino are both playing wing on Minnesota's 4th line.

The next big thing has been essentially swapping Kessel and Hornqvist for Kapanen and Tanev. I liked Phil and Horny when they were here.....but they were both so one dimensional. Phil was a great playmaker, but a black hole defensively. Hornqvist offered nothing when he wasn't in front of the opposing team's net (plus he's always hurt). Ultimately, the Pens sacrificed a bit on the PP, but they are now so much better 5 on 5.

[Louis Lipps Service]

Garrett Wilson.
We have brought in half a dozen better players to fill his spot the past few years.
Speaking of Wilson, I have a signed puck from him(lucky me) and I use it as a drink coaster.

I remember this conversation....you got the Wilson puck in your 2019 charity bag. I wound up with a Lemieux puck and a Matt Cullen autographed jersey


Really, the most important change since 2019 has been Zucker. Say what you want about his production/consistency....he is light years ahead of Dominik Simon. Jeff Carter is everything we hoped Bjugstad would be. Oh, funny story - Bjugstad and Bonino are both playing wing on Minnesota's 4th line.

The next big thing has been essentially swapping Kessel and Hornqvist for Kapanen and Tanev. I liked Phil and Horny when they were here.....but they were both so one dimensional. Phil was a great playmaker, but a black hole defensively. Hornqvist offered nothing when he wasn't in front of the opposing team's net (plus he's always hurt). Ultimately, the Pens sacrificed a bit on the PP, but they are now so much better 5 on 5.

You forgot the biggest change of them all.

Launching Jack Johnson into the Sun.