Ukraine!

[COR-TEN]

The end result of this is going to be a ton of dead Russians and a crippled Russian economy. The longer it goes, the worse it gets, and the worse it becomes for Putin. What does he do? That is the terrifying question.

The certain end result right now is a lot of Ukrainians being fucked. Your average russian will suffer economic hardship, but death and destruction/ rebuilding won't be part of their suffering. Oligarchs will find another five star resort. Russia's "suffering," in putin's world view, is worth it. For now.

I'm not sure putin has an "off ramp" at this point (I'm not sure he even cares about an off ramp). It appears that in his view, escalation is the only option. . . Capitulation is what he's after. At all costs.

I was trying to look at it from the Russian POV, but yes agreed.

roger that.

[Kodiak.]

I understand that Germany was dragged kicking and screaming. I understand the state coffers rely on Russia being Europe's gas station. But it is an assumption that he would not have invaded even if every Euro country told him we're done buying gas from you if you do. We don't know. That's the very narrow and specific point I am making.

That's a strawman. The reliance on Russian gas impacts how NATO/EU countries can respond. It's also a source of funds to finance his invasion. That's very different from saying he wouldn't have invaded but for.

The point is - and it's factual - that his capabilities are enhanced and response are limited BECAUSE of the reliance on energy. Not the same as saying he wouldn't still have invaded.

[Deebo]

The end result of this is going to be a ton of dead Russians and a crippled Russian economy. The longer it goes, the worse it gets, and the worse it becomes for Putin. What does he do? That is the terrifying question.

The certain end result right now is a lot of Ukrainians being fucked. Your average russian will suffer economic hardship, but death and destruction/ rebuilding won't be part of their suffering. Oligarchs will find another five star resort. Russia's "suffering," in putin's world view, is worth it. For now.

I'm not sure putin has an "off ramp" at this point (I'm not sure he even cares about an off ramp). It appears that in his view, escalation is the only option. . . Capitulation is what he's after. At all costs.

Mostly agree, but I see Russian breadlines again easily within their future.

Either way it's a lose lose for your average Ukrainian and Russian citizen. Sad

[Professor Half Wit]

I understand that Germany was dragged kicking and screaming. I understand the state coffers rely on Russia being Europe's gas station. But it is an assumption that he would not have invaded even if every Euro country told him we're done buying gas from you if you do. We don't know. That's the very narrow and specific point I am making.

That's a strawman. The reliance on Russian gas impacts how NATO/EU countries can respond. It's also a source of funds to finance his invasion. That's very different from saying he wouldn't have invaded but for.

The point is - and it's factual - that his capabilities are enhanced and response are limited BECAUSE of the reliance on energy. Not the same as saying he wouldn't still have invaded.

It's not a strawman unless you misunderstand what a strawman is. I am not attacking someone else's account, I'm making one (so no straw man at work here). You cannot prove counterfactuals. That is also factual. And of course I have agreed with reality which is that Putin's reserves are mainly due to wealth invested from the sale of gas. The point I made was quite narrow.

[alancac98]

It now seems that some of the Russian Oligarchs are getting a little disgruntled. A Russian businessman, just put a 1 million dollar bounty out on Putin. If the wealthiest Russians had a fucking brain, they would pony up 100 million collectively to off his ass. One of Putin's confidants will consider it and actually may pull the trigger looking for that big score. Then the Oligarchs need to wipe out any and all of Putin's men and cleanse the whole system. To me, this is their only option as their money and assets are being confiscated and they will have nothing left. But...do they have the balls?

It is clear that Putin no longer cares about the Ukrainian people as people of Russia. At this point he is going to cleanse the country and take only the land - repopulating it with his russian people!

[alancac98]

Only problem is, he now knows exactly what to do to handle the situation and the problem only gets bigger

Hard disagree.

The Chechen War was fought in an area roughly the size of Massachusetts against a population of around 1 million. Combined, the South Ossetia and Abkhazia (spelling?) regions had a population of around 300k. Georgia itself only has a population of about 4 million people. In Syria, Putin was aligned with Assad and was/is basically going up against a bunch of barely-armed and barely-trained rebel groups. Going against Ukraine in 2014 is where Putin fucked up....

The reason Russia was so easily able to annex the Crimea and Donbass region was simple: The Ukrainian army was supplied with garbage Soviet equipment that was 25 years old. And I'm not exaggerating - they were using Soviet-era radios, anti-tank munitions, vehicles, etc. That crap literally didn't work.

And here is his mistake - That invasion led to two things: The Ukrainian military got its ass in gear, and Ukrainian nationalism grew. The Donbass War created the incentive to root out corruption in the military. In addition, Ukraine instituted a draft and it now has around 400k vets with combat experience. And finally, Ukraine started to modernize its weaponry. They purchased a ton of weapons systems from Turkey (apparently they're close allies, who knew?) as well as the US and UK. They remodeled their defenses to mimic that of Poland.

Result? Putin is going up against a far better equipped and better trained army that he's ever dealt with. He's also doing it on a battlefield that is considerably larger than anything he's dealt with in the past. And to top it off, Putin has been huffing his own farts for so long that he started believing the BS propaganda. He expected tanks to roll through and be greeted with open arms. Supplies? Meh, who cares, we'll be in Kyiv in 2 days. Oops. Oh, and Ukrainians are fucking pissed and he'll have to deal with a brutal insurgency even if this invasion ends up being a success.

The end result of this is going to be a ton of dead Russians and a crippled Russian economy. The longer it goes, the worse it gets, and the worse it becomes for Putin. What does he do? That is the terrifying question.

So, are you telling me that you don't think that NATO's handling of him in both Georgia and Crimea in no way prompted his move into Ukraine?

[LakecrestSteeler]

It is clear that Putin no longer cares about the Ukrainian people as people of Russia. At this point he is going to cleanse the country and take only the land - repopulating it with his russian people!

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Biden, NATO, and UN need to draw the red line; not one more country NATO or not. We will be going to war with this abomination of a man. D-day on the Baltic and Black Sea may be in our futures.

Just like with Hitler and Germany, the plan was all spelled out in Mein Kampf. Putin’s plan is all spelled out as well. He wants the USSR back and he will not stop until then. All this pipeline and oil talk is just details on funding. We have a madman on the loose again.

How Russia can have such a string of nut cases from Lenin onward is amazing.

Might as well draw the redline now and get it over with. We will most likely be going to war at some point over this. Maybe a cadre of A10 pilots needs to sneak off at night and put some depleted uranium rounds on that 40 mile support column. A couple c130 gun ships to support wouldn’t hurt either.

The thing with war is that it is such an uncontrollable beast. It mutates randomly and you never know how that random event will break. Generally it means a tornado of death and destruction; we can hope it will mean a coup on Putin I guess, but again it will just be random luck if it happens if history is any indication.

The WTF Twenties continue!

[Stlcrtn1974]

It is clear that Putin no longer cares about the Ukrainian people as people of Russia. At this point he is going to cleanse the country and take only the land - repopulating it with his russian people!

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Biden, NATO, and UN need to draw the red line; not one more country NATO or not. We will be going to war with this abomination of a man. D-day on the Baltic and Black Sea may be in our futures.

Just like with Hitler and Germany, the plan was all spelled out in Mein Kampf. Putin’s plan is all spelled out as well. He wants the USSR back and he will not stop until then. All this pipeline and oil talk is just details on funding. We have a madman on the loose again.

How Russia can have such a string of nut cases from Lenin onward is amazing.

Might as well draw the redline now and get it over with. We will most likely be going to war at some point over this. Maybe a cadre of A10 pilots needs to sneak off at night and put some depleted uranium rounds on that 40 mile support column. A couple c130 gun ships to support wouldn’t hurt either.

The thing with war is that it is such an uncontrollable beast. It mutates randomly and you never know how that random event will break. Generally it means a tornado of death and destruction; we can hope it will mean a coup on Putin I guess, but again it will just be random luck if it happens if history is any indication.

The WTF Twenties continue!

I think ww3 is about 5 to 10 years away. China, Russia, and Norrh Korea is going to take some kind of miracle to defeat. Funny how we keep enriching China even though they are a communist country. Before we start blaming each other on who's fault it is, I'll save you the time, it's greed.

Can't wait to see our "patriots" fight like these Ukrainians are. These guys know what's coming but they still fight, those are patriots.

[SteelPro]

It is clear that Putin no longer cares about the Ukrainian people as people of Russia. At this point he is going to cleanse the country and take only the land - repopulating it with his russian people!

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Biden, NATO, and UN need to draw the red line; not one more country NATO or not. We will be going to war with this abomination of a man. D-day on the Baltic and Black Sea may be in our futures.

Just like with Hitler and Germany, the plan was all spelled out in Mein Kampf. Putin’s plan is all spelled out as well. He wants the USSR back and he will not stop until then. All this pipeline and oil talk is just details on funding. We have a madman on the loose again.

How Russia can have such a string of nut cases from Lenin onward is amazing.

Might as well draw the redline now and get it over with. We will most likely be going to war at some point over this. Maybe a cadre of A10 pilots needs to sneak off at night and put some depleted uranium rounds on that 40 mile support column. A couple c130 gun ships to support wouldn’t hurt either.

The thing with war is that it is such an uncontrollable beast. It mutates randomly and you never know how that random event will break. Generally it means a tornado of death and destruction; we can hope it will mean a coup on Putin I guess, but again it will just be random luck if it happens if history is any indication.

The WTF Twenties continue!

I think ww3 is about 5 to 10 years away. China, Russia, and Norrh Korea is going to take some kind of miracle to defeat. Funny how we keep enriching China even though they are a communist country. Before we start blaming each other on who's fault it is, I'll save you the time, it's greed.

Can't wait to see our "patriots" fight like these Ukrainians are. These guys know what's coming but they still fight, those are patriots.

China is too smart to ever get into any real military escalation. They’ll sit back and let everyone else destroy each other and reap the benefits of being a 2 billion+ population and only super power not involved in war that is willing to supply any side of any conflict. I don’t fear China in war. I fear China building an economic dominance beyond anything the world has ever seen. Eventually every country will be so indebted to China that they will be the landlord of the rest of the world.

[Professor Half Wit]

It now seems that some of the Russian Oligarchs are getting a little disgruntled. A Russian businessman, just put a 1 million dollar bounty out on Putin. If the wealthiest Russians had a fucking brain, they would pony up 100 million collectively to off his ass. One of Putin's confidants will consider it and actually may pull the trigger looking for that big score. Then the Oligarchs need to wipe out any and all of Putin's men and cleanse the whole system. To me, this is their only option as their money and assets are being confiscated and they will have nothing left. But...do they have the balls?

It is clear that Putin no longer cares about the Ukrainian people as people of Russia. At this point he is going to cleanse the country and take only the land - repopulating it with his russian people!

This is guy is dead as shit if true.

[Pabst]

Only problem is, he now knows exactly what to do to handle the situation and the problem only gets bigger

Hard disagree.

The Chechen War was fought in an area roughly the size of Massachusetts against a population of around 1 million. Combined, the South Ossetia and Abkhazia (spelling?) regions had a population of around 300k. Georgia itself only has a population of about 4 million people. In Syria, Putin was aligned with Assad and was/is basically going up against a bunch of barely-armed and barely-trained rebel groups. Going against Ukraine in 2014 is where Putin fucked up....

The reason Russia was so easily able to annex the Crimea and Donbass region was simple: The Ukrainian army was supplied with garbage Soviet equipment that was 25 years old. And I'm not exaggerating - they were using Soviet-era radios, anti-tank munitions, vehicles, etc. That crap literally didn't work.

And here is his mistake - That invasion led to two things: The Ukrainian military got its ass in gear, and Ukrainian nationalism grew. The Donbass War created the incentive to root out corruption in the military. In addition, Ukraine instituted a draft and it now has around 400k vets with combat experience. And finally, Ukraine started to modernize its weaponry. They purchased a ton of weapons systems from Turkey (apparently they're close allies, who knew?) as well as the US and UK. They remodeled their defenses to mimic that of Poland.

Result? Putin is going up against a far better equipped and better trained army that he's ever dealt with. He's also doing it on a battlefield that is considerably larger than anything he's dealt with in the past. And to top it off, Putin has been huffing his own farts for so long that he started believing the BS propaganda. He expected tanks to roll through and be greeted with open arms. Supplies? Meh, who cares, we'll be in Kyiv in 2 days. Oops. Oh, and Ukrainians are fucking pissed and he'll have to deal with a brutal insurgency even if this invasion ends up being a success.

The end result of this is going to be a ton of dead Russians and a crippled Russian economy. The longer it goes, the worse it gets, and the worse it becomes for Putin. What does he do? That is the terrifying question.

So, are you telling me that you don't think that NATO's handling of him in both Georgia and Crimea in no way prompted his move into Ukraine?

No, that's not at all what I said.

I'm disagreeing with your statement of "[Putin] knows exactly what to do to handle the situation". It's pretty obvious that he underestimated:
1. Ukrainian resistance
2. His own army's strength
3. World response

He put himself into a catch-22. If he withdraws, then he's admitting a mistake and that he wasted a ton of resources (and lives) for nothing. If he escalates, then he faces greater sanctions and Russia's economy continues to crumble (not to mention, more dead Russian soldiers).

[Kodiak.]

It now seems that some of the Russian Oligarchs are getting a little disgruntled. A Russian businessman, just put a 1 million dollar bounty out on Putin. If the wealthiest Russians had a fucking brain, they would pony up 100 million collectively to off his ass.

This is guy is dead as shit if true.

I've been wondering, based on what I perceive as coordinated/aligned "propaganda" from the left & right media, globally, to make Putin look weak. Complete with speculation about his health, his mental state, etc... Russian troops getting lost in the streets is just really hard to believe.

Not claiming it's going well for Putin, but there's a little Baghad Bob in the coverage from the West. And my guess is they are hoping to provoke a coup, because what other option is there, really? The concern is WHO fills the void? I don't really know, but I'm guessing the top dogs are all hardliner, Putin cronies.

Perhaps it was the nuke flexing that caused everyone to say "fuck it, we'll take our chances with the next guy".

[COR-TEN]

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Somebody gets it.

This is not a humanitarian crisis with refugees, it's all part of the plan. All those people that want to come back are going to come back and realize their property and homes will have been confiscated or destroyed. This is not a five month plan. This is a five year plan. Putin is not stupid.

The global elite will complain, human rights commissions will be set up, money will be funneled and embezzled, organizations will be created addressing putin's megalomania, and outrage will continue - until it doesn't. All to no effect. Russia will slowly regain economic power, and Ukraine will still cease to be in control of its sovereignty. That's exactly what putin wants.

He'll wait it out laughing while we all watch and pretend economic sanctions will change his mind.

[LakecrestSteeler]

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Somebody gets it.

This is not a humanitarian crisis with refugees, it's all part of the plan. All those people that want to come back are going to come back and realize their property and homes will have been confiscated or destroyed. This is not a five month plan. This is a five year plan. Putin is not stupid.

The global elite will complain, human rights commissions will be set up, money will be funneled and embezzled, organizations will be created addressing putin's megalomania, and outrage will continue - until it doesn't. All to no effect. Russia will slowly regain economic power, and Ukraine will still cease to be in control of its sovereignty. That's exactly what putin wants.

He'll wait it out laughing while we all watch and pretend economic sanctions will change his mind.

I don’t think it will get that far down the road. Sanctions will be coupled with military at some point down the road…probably in less than 6 months.

[LakecrestSteeler]

The denazification of Ukraine is code for repopulation with Russians. That is the only way this invasion of Ukraine works.

Biden, NATO, and UN need to draw the red line; not one more country NATO or not. We will be going to war with this abomination of a man. D-day on the Baltic and Black Sea may be in our futures.

Just like with Hitler and Germany, the plan was all spelled out in Mein Kampf. Putin’s plan is all spelled out as well. He wants the USSR back and he will not stop until then. All this pipeline and oil talk is just details on funding. We have a madman on the loose again.

How Russia can have such a string of nut cases from Lenin onward is amazing.

Might as well draw the redline now and get it over with. We will most likely be going to war at some point over this. Maybe a cadre of A10 pilots needs to sneak off at night and put some depleted uranium rounds on that 40 mile support column. A couple c130 gun ships to support wouldn’t hurt either.

The thing with war is that it is such an uncontrollable beast. It mutates randomly and you never know how that random event will break. Generally it means a tornado of death and destruction; we can hope it will mean a coup on Putin I guess, but again it will just be random luck if it happens if history is any indication.

The WTF Twenties continue!

I think ww3 is about 5 to 10 years away. China, Russia, and Norrh Korea is going to take some kind of miracle to defeat. Funny how we keep enriching China even though they are a communist country. Before we start blaming each other on who's fault it is, I'll save you the time, it's greed.

Can't wait to see our "patriots" fight like these Ukrainians are. These guys know what's coming but they still fight, those are patriots.

China is too smart to ever get into any real military escalation. They’ll sit back and let everyone else destroy each other and reap the benefits of being a 2 billion+ population and only super power not involved in war that is willing to supply any side of any conflict. I don’t fear China in war. I fear China building an economic dominance beyond anything the world has ever seen. Eventually every country will be so indebted to China that they will be the landlord of the rest of the world.

You are forgetting one thing…using today’s dollars, I borrow a million dollars, the bank has me over a barrel. I borrow a billion dollars from certain banks I have the bank over a barrel.

With countries…not sure when the billions borrowed from China, put’s China over the barrel, but they are over the barrel already with what they have lent. The US and China are both globally interconnected and over the same virtual barrel. The only way that changes is a complete disregard for world order much like Putin is doing. 2 billion people is too much to gamble, especially since they are all on one side of the mountain range in the fertile valleys in the east of China.

I don’t really believe in national debt. It is all made up magic math. If you think there is some master ledger for the top 10 countries somewhere that is enforceable, I have a bridge to sell you.

Maybe when you get down to the smaller countries they owe debt and it is enforceable, but at the macro country level it is just a made up number that grows every year. As long as the leader has the people’s trust, you have a viable population, inflation and deflation are balanced to some extent, you can set your debt at whatever you want.

Civilization (we do it here, I assume the other stock markets are doing it) can’t even enforce naked shorts in the US stock market…most corporations don’t even know how many legit shares and illegitimate shares they have outstanding. Most corporations have more shares outstanding than they know and hence get more illegitimate votes than they want during shareholder meetings and there is not a thing they can do about it currently. So if debt for stocks is unknown, there is no way to know what a country’s debt is, since so many bonds and stocks are intermingled in portfolios of the major hedge funds.

[alancac98]

Putin just stated that any sanctions against Russian Oil exports would be the equivalent of a "Declaration of War". Either Putin has balls the size of a wrecking ball or he's just off his fucking rocker! NATO has a decision to make: war now or war later. But at some point, there will be war with Russia unless someone with a much more sane view of things puts a bullet in the back of Putin's head - which may happen. I think that is the desired outcome NATO and the US are looking for right now, that's why they are holding back (not to mention nobody wants war and you truly don't know whether Putin will use nukes). It's just too bad that it will come at the expense of the genocide of the Ukrainian people!

[Professor Half Wit]

Putin just stated that any sanctions against Russian Oil exports would be the equivalent of a "Declaration of War". Either Putin has balls the size of a wrecking ball or he's just off his fucking rocker! NATO has a decision to make: war now or war later. But at some point, there will be war with Russia unless someone with a much more sane view of things puts a bullet in the back of Putin's head - which may happen. I think that is the desired outcome NATO and the US are looking for right now, that's why they are holding back (not to mention nobody wants war and you truly don't know whether Putin will use nukes). It's just too bad that it will come at the expense of the genocide of the Ukrainian people!

Backed into a corner. Russia's economy may very well be headed to depression level shit if the West can hold it together. If an embargo on Russian oil by the west were actually pulled off, it might put Russia into a tailspin it cannot get out of. Come on Biden, organize it, get it done, and explain to the American people why the pain of such an embargo is worth it.

[SteelPro]

Putin just stated that any sanctions against Russian Oil exports would be the equivalent of a "Declaration of War". Either Putin has balls the size of a wrecking ball or he's just off his fucking rocker! NATO has a decision to make: war now or war later. But at some point, there will be war with Russia unless someone with a much more sane view of things puts a bullet in the back of Putin's head - which may happen. I think that is the desired outcome NATO and the US are looking for right now, that's why they are holding back (not to mention nobody wants war and you truly don't know whether Putin will use nukes). It's just too bad that it will come at the expense of the genocide of the Ukrainian people!

Backed into a corner. Russia's economy may very well be headed to depression level shit if the West can hold it together. If an embargo on Russian oil by the west were actually pulled off, it might put Russia into a tailspin it cannot get out of. Come on Biden, organize it, get it done, and explain to the American people why the pain of such an embargo is worth it.

Putin really messed up the timing on this invasion. Had he invaded in late Autumn, Europe and the US would have been in a much more dire situation when it comes to fuel reliance. A lot of speculation is Putin wanted to do this earlier but was afraid of pissing off China by marring their hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics. High fuel costs suck in the summer. But it can be downright deadly for people in the winter.

[Pabst]

Visa & Mastercard just shut down operations in Russia, and that's in addition to ApplePay, PayPal, and others already ceasing operations.

They're basically a hard currency economy now. Bring on the bank runs!

[Stlcrtn1974]

I really don't see this ending well unless someone takes Putin out soon. I thought maybe 5 to 10 years but I think we may be closer to ww3 then we have ever been.

[Kodiak.]

Putin really messed up the timing on this invasion. Had he invaded in late Autumn, Europe and the US would have been in a much more dire situation when it comes to fuel reliance. A lot of speculation is Putin wanted to do this earlier but was afraid of pissing off China by marring their hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics. High fuel costs suck in the summer. But it can be downright deadly for people in the winter.

I think there were blackouts, or at least fear of sustained blackouts, throughout Europe this winter already. And I'm sure it's not coincidental that the invasion began days after the Olympics ended.

China appears to be wavering in its support for Russia. Game over if they join in on the sanctions. That's usually why sanctions DON'T work, because not everyone gets on board and some that do, cheat.


China is probably the way out of this. If they're smart - and they usually are - they are going to leverage this to soften the blowback from Covid.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Putin really messed up the timing on this invasion. Had he invaded in late Autumn, Europe and the US would have been in a much more dire situation when it comes to fuel reliance. A lot of speculation is Putin wanted to do this earlier but was afraid of pissing off China by marring their hosting of the Beijing Winter Olympics. High fuel costs suck in the summer. But it can be downright deadly for people in the winter.

China is probably the way out of this. If they're smart - and they usually are - they are going to leverage this to soften the blowback from Covid.

This is probably the key! China has made huge investments in Ukraine too:

https://thediplomat.com/2022/02/ukraine ... to-europe/

Probably severe behind the scenes diplomacy going on with China and RF and China and US. If China squeezes Russia, China could potentially get their supplemental breadbasket back in Ukraine, and they might be able to get a couple sanctions eliminated from the US all while crushing Russia.

But if the whole Machiavellian Taiwan invasion is a thing then all bets are off.

[COR-TEN]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

[955876]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

Strange days when I find myself in full agreement with you.

Too bad it’s in regards to such an awful situation.

[SteelPro]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

I don't disagree that Ukraine is basically a sacrificial lamb at this point. The West knows that Russia will eventually take it over and they aren't going to relinquish it. But the ramifications of that is likely to be a weaker Russia and a stronger NATO alliance. Not easy to maintain control in a hostile area, and it will take a long time before a Russian Occupied Ukraine can be handled without Russia committing tons of resources (military and otherwise) to keep it under Putin's thumb. Meanwhile this has been an eye opener for NATO countries who are now reaffirming their commitments to the alliance and are actually ready to up their defense spending to appropriate levels. On top of that you are seeing some countries reconsidering the neutrality that was intended to protect them. Sweden and Finland are now seriously considering joining NATO. All of this is terrible though for Ukrainian people who are being given enough support to drag this out for a while, but not enough to actually thwart it.

[alancac98]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

I don't disagree that Ukraine is basically a sacrificial lamb at this point. The West knows that Russia will eventually take it over and they aren't going to relinquish it. But the ramifications of that is likely to be a weaker Russia and a stronger NATO alliance. Not easy to maintain control in a hostile area, and it will take a long time before a Russian Occupied Ukraine can be handled without Russia committing tons of resources (military and otherwise) to keep it under Putin's thumb. Meanwhile this has been an eye opener for NATO countries who are now reaffirming their commitments to the alliance and are actually ready to up their defense spending to appropriate levels. On top of that you are seeing some countries reconsidering the neutrality that was intended to protect them. Sweden and Finland are now seriously considering joining NATO. All of this is terrible though for Ukrainian people who are being given enough support to drag this out for a while, but not enough to actually thwart it.

I see a stronger NATO alliance bringing countries together, but still the same weak minded political leadership that will make NATO just a paper tiger. Now, should NATO grow some balls and tell Putin to fuck himself and head his ass off at some point, then NATO has become a force to be reckoned with. Right now, NATO has been Putin's bitch since 2008 and I'm not sure if that will change anytime soon. I have no doubt that we will see it what NATO is made of in the coming years as Putin continues to pursue his agenda. What will happen when Putin targets Estonia or Latvia, which are also old USSR territories? Will NATO come to the rescue or will they use the excuse that even though are NATO, they haven't kept up their commitments, so see ya?

[Professor Half Wit]

Isn’t NATO’s mission to protect MEMBER nations?

[LakecrestSteeler]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

Strange days when I find myself in full agreement with you.

Too bad it’s in regards to such an awful situation.

And just think…no State Farm as they all have war clauses in the policies I assume for the mass insurance products. No FEMA equivalent as Ukraine will be defunct and Russia broke.

But they are not bombing houses you say? But they just turned off gas in Ukraine…that will be broken pipes galore.

And the number of cars destroyed…many people with 10 years of wealth and belongings wiped out maybe more.

I don’t know how one would control the rage. I’d be sneaking into Russia with my sole goal to do some sort of Dolittle raid by rental car in Moscow. Blow up a gas station or two….Drop a couple Molotov cocktails in a couple of the nice shops near Lenin’s tomb. Something!

[Professor Half Wit]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

Pyrrhic victory. Russia will never permanently have Ukraine. Putin got out ahead of his skis. This is going to go on for months, maybe years.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Nothing is going to happen until putin has control of Ukraine. You guys can argue all you want about how, or what the political landscape will be in the future.

The world has acquiesced and given Ukraine to putin. This much is clear. It might not be clean and tidy the way putin wanted it, but its the end result, nonetheless..

It makes everyone feel better that the russian economy (apparently) is going to the shitter, while Ukrainian civilians are being bombed. Not equal. Ukraine's future is screwed for the foreseeable future, while russia will simply be ostracized.

I'll be surprised if the end result is different than I predict.

I wholeheartedly disagree!

Prior to 2020 and maybe even the 2016 election I’d be in complete agreement.

But if we have all learned one thing over the last 2 years, what can happen will happen and has happened. I fully expect a sneak attack, a massive ground assault and probably a nuke being dropped.

I will be more surprised if one or all 3 of these things do not happen than if what you describe above happens.

Grab the popcorn; not just for Europe but for the US too.