Colbert/Tomlin Pre-Draft Presser

[Steelperch]

Monday at noon:

Stream live: http://www.steelers.com
Listen live: http://www.iheart.com/live/970-espn-2013/?autoplay=true&pname=1109&campid=play_bar&cid=main.html


Colbert Noteworthy Comments:
Couple of days to sort through medical and character stuff
In communication with every team about trade up and trade down scenarios
Running Backs are a nice group, good quality and depth
WR group is deep, but not as dynamic as last year
TE not many to pick from because of spread offenses
OT is as good a group as has been in years
Good CB group
OLB as good a group as Colbert has seen in 10-15 years, a lot of impact guys
D-line beauty in the eye of the beholder
Colbert mentioned 3-4 vs 4-3 guys a few times, implying Steelers are a 3-4 team. "We have looked at them as 3-4 OLB's have worked them out as such."
Colbert loves to look at guys in uniforms.
Individual meetings with Colbert/Tomlin totaled 103 players.
Does Keith Butler as DC change how you look at D-line or LB players? "Not at all".
Over 200 guys on Steelers board. 8 picks usually come from 120 targeted players.
No QB for the Steelers early in the draft
Will draft BPA, not to fill needs

[lifelongsteel]

To save you some time:

Colbert:
BPA
Nothing off limits in R1 but QB
Need help with pass rush and pass defense
Deep draft for corners and edge rushers
Will run to the podium at 1.22

Tomlin:
Obviously, we need new blood to test the old blood
Looking for men of a violent nature
We take in account the known knowns, but also the unknown knowns
Looking for more dogs for our small set of bones, obviously
Horseflesh is horseflesh, if you will

[bradshaw2ben]

To save you some time:

Colbert:
BPA
Nothing off limits in R1 but QB
Need help with pass rush and pass defense
Deep draft for corners and edge rushers
Will run to the podium at 1.22

Tomlin:
Obviously, we need new blood to test the old blood
Looking for men of a violent nature
We take in account the known knowns, but also the unknown knowns
Looking for more dogs for our small set of bones, obviously
Horseflesh is horseflesh, if you will

winner winner

[Obviously]

[Legacy User]

To save you some time:

Colbert:
BPA
Nothing off limits in R1 but QB
Need help with pass rush and pass defense
Deep draft for corners and edge rushers
Will run to the podium at 1.22

Tomlin:
Obviously, we need new blood to test the old blood
Looking for men of a violent nature
We take in account the known knowns, but also the unknown knowns
Looking for more dogs for our small set of bones, obviously
Horseflesh is horseflesh, if you will

Colbert will also tell us that he hasn't heard from Antonio and that he expects him to be there for mini-camp.

Tomlin will tell us that Williams and Dri better step up in place of Bell, and that he expects no drop off in production against New England.

They both will INSIST Troy made the decision to retire on his own and that he's the best safety ever.

[Steelperch]

bump... On in 5 minutes

[Thrillsseeker]

bump... On in 5 minutes

wish I could listen.

[Steelperch]

bump... On in 5 minutes

wish I could listen.

All of the cliches and coach speak you need are right here

Colbert Noteworthy Comments:
Couple of days to sort through medical and character stuff
In communication with every team about trade up and trade down scenarios
Running Backs are a nice group, good quality and depth
WR group is deep, but not as dynamic as last year
TE not many to pick from because of spread offenses
OT is as good a group as has been in years
Good CB group
OLB as good a group as Colbert has seen in 10-15 years, a lot of impact guys
D-line beauty in the eye of the beholder
Colbert mentioned 3-4 vs 4-3 guys a few times, implying Steelers are a 3-4 team. "We have looked at them as 3-4 OLB's have worked them out as such."
Colbert loves to look at guys in uniforms.
Individual meetings with Colbert/Tomlin totaled 103 players.
Does Keith Butler as DC change how you look at D-line or LB players? "Not at all".
Over 200 guys on Steelers board. 8 picks usually come from 120 targeted players.
No QB for the Steelers early in the draft
Will draft BPA, not to fill needs

[Thrillsseeker]

bump... On in 5 minutes

wish I could listen.

All of the cliches and coach speak you need are right here

Colbert Noteworthy Comments:
Couple of days to sort through medical and character stuff
In communication with every team about trade up and trade down scenarios
Running Backs are a nice group, good quality and depth
WR group is deep, but not as dynamic as last year
TE not many to pick from because of spread offenses
OT is as good a group as has been in years
Good CB group
OLB as good a group as Colbert has seen in 10-15 years, a lot of impact guys
D-line beauty in the eye of the beholder
Colbert mentioned 3-4 vs 4-3 guys a few times, implying Steelers are a 3-4 team. "We have looked at them as 3-4 OLB's have worked them out as such."
Colbert loves to look at guys in uniforms.
Individual meetings with Colbert/Tomlin totaled 103 players.
Does Keith Butler as DC change how you look at D-line or LB players? "Not at all".
Over 200 guys on Steelers board. 8 picks usually come from 120 targeted players.
No QB for the Steelers early in the draft
Will draft BPA, not to fill needs

Change that to: Does Keith Butler as DC change how you look at CB's? <<< I wonder about this.

[franco32]

Not much there. However, that comment about OLBs has me concerned. I actually think a lot of the first round OLBs will bust pretty badly. I hope he is not in love with Harold or Dupree.

I haven't been able to post much lately, but I honestly don't understand all of the love for Nate Orchard. He's a try hard player with a good motor, but I don't think he'll be beating too many OTs to the edge.

[langer]

Not much there. However, that comment about OLBs has me concerned. I actually think a lot of the first round OLBs will bust pretty badly. I hope he is not in love with Harold or Dupree.

I haven't been able to post much lately, but I honestly don't understand all of the love for Nate Orchard. He's a try hard player with a good motor, but I don't think he'll be beating too many OTs to the edge.

Second round edge rushers are traditionally 2/3 busts or worse... People are just hopeful they can find the one out of 3 or 4 who isn't a total bomb.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss Dupree. If Butler signs off and you know James Harrison and Joey Porter going to work with him, he has all of the athletic ability. technique and mental part of the game and mostly focusing on one position are the issues with him. he needs to learn how to use the explosion core strength that he has channel it into being a great player. It boils down to: do you trust coaches to develop him? At that position, talent trumps all.

[Ice]

I'll admit, from DC Butler to LB coach Porter to OLB emeritus Harrison, I'm intrigued by Dupree. OLB might be the position where I trust our coaching the most, at this point. Our horseflesh-picking, maybe not so much, but if anything else, Dupree is like the Anti-JJ, so, there's that.

[franco32]

Dupree could be coached by Noll and Belichick together and I don't think he'll ever be an elite OLB. He really does look lost a lot. Plus, I really question his motor and drive on many plays. Not the kind of thing you want to be questioning for your 22nd pick.

[Legacy User]

It doesn't matter where you line Dupree up he gets his ass whipped vs the run. He couldn't even deal with second tier college TEs...I wouldn't touch him in the second round.

Orchard is so much better in every aspect not related to gym shorts. What is hilarious is that Orchard, Ray, and Golden hung sacks on OT's like Peat, Humphries, Sambreillo, and Sheppard...while Gregory, Fowler, and Dupree don't even get to 5 sacks if not for air and FCS teams.

[Ice]

Bust potential, to be sure.

[bradshaw2ben]

that's more of indictment of those OTs.

franco that's the first I've heard anyone question Dupree's motor.

The position has everything to do with elite athleticism and or power at that level. It's foolish to think college success overrides that stuff, when a decade plus of NFL football is on the other side of that argument.

Dupree's floor is Connor Barwin. I would take that and figure out how to work with it or use him as a stunt rusher or whatever.

[Legacy User]

that's more of indictment of those OTs.

franco that's the first I've heard anyone question Dupree's motor.

The position has everything to do with elite athleticism and or power at that level. It's foolish to think college success overrides that stuff, when a decade plus of NFL football is on the other side of that argument.

Dupree's floor is Connor Barwin. I would take that and figure out how to work with it or use him as a stunt rusher or whatever.

I don't want to put words into franco's mouth but there is the old saying that playing the run is at least 50% desire. Anyone that watched any of the SEC games except Mizzo watched Dupree get the shit kicked out of him in all aspects. And it appears many teams game plans were based around running right at Dupree.

You continue to repeat the "elite athleticism" theory...despite the fact that the best pass rusher since 2012 is Chandler Jones and his 11.5 sacks in 2013. And his measurables are almost identical to Jarvis Jones. With that measure the standard guys like Suggs, Mathis, Dumervil, Deebo, etc.. never play for an NFL team.

If you look at last years NFL 10 sack guys you will find well over 90% of them had at least 10 sacks at some point in there college career. Dupree's floor is never starting because he is such a liability vs the run.

[Legacy User]

Bud Dupree scares the hell out of me.

[bradshaw2ben]

A. I don't see him as a guy the Steelers pick in round 1
B. He won't get past Atlanta

I think Dupree could learn how to be a great OLB... maybe... but he's a better fit as an off ball Leo who does a little of everything. Sort of a Jamie Collins thing.

It's funny hearing Colbert say the edge rusher class is deep with a lot a great talent-- I think it's extremely thin, with not a single freaking prospect who has big production, big athleticism, success vs big competition, clean character/medical, size/fit as 3-4 OLB , & quality run defense. There are ZERO sure things. The guys who have 5 out of 6: Beasley, Ray, Delaire, Orchard, Tull, Clark. The guys with 4 out of 6 Dupree, Fowler, Odighizua, Gregory, Golden, Mount, Riddick, Rush, Vaughters 3 out of 6 includes Eli Harold, Hunter, Mauldin, Kikaha, Bates, Fua

Sorry, but that doesn't look like a deep, deep group to me.

[lifelongsteel]

A. I don't see him as a guy the Steelers pick in round 1
B. He won't get past Atlanta

I think Dupree could learn how to be a great OLB... maybe... but he's a better fit as an off ball Leo who does a little of everything. Sort of a Jamie Collins thing.

It's funny hearing Colbert say the edge rusher class is deep with a lot a great talent-- I think it's extremely thin, with not a single freaking prospect who has big production, big athleticism, success vs big competition, clean character/medical, size/fit as 3-4 OLB , & quality run defense. There are ZERO sure things. The guys who have 5 out of 6: Beasley, Ray, Delaire, Orchard, Tull, Clark. The guys with 4 out of 6 Dupree, Fowler, Odighizua, Gregory, Golden, Mount, Riddick, Rush, Vaughters 3 out of 6 includes Eli Harold, Hunter, Mauldin, Kikaha, Bates, Fua

Sorry, but that doesn't look like a deep, deep group to me.

I think if you compared this to previous years you'd find that it is quite deep. and FWIW, who was the last sure thing 3-4 edge rusher? seems like that is a once every 10 years type of deal.

[bradshaw2ben]

Off the top of my head, Von Miller. Justin Houston. Orakpo. I would have put JJ Watt and Jamie Collins in that bucket.. I think both showed the tape and the athletics to have been legendary (in JJ Watt's case) or at least great 3-4 OLBs.

I guess this crop looks somewhat better in that light... but I wouldn't bang the table for anyone this year like I would have for Collins, Houston, or Miller. Maybe Beasley.

[V DUB]

that's more of indictment of those OTs.

franco that's the first I've heard anyone question Dupree's motor.

The position has everything to do with elite athleticism and or power at that level. It's foolish to think college success overrides that stuff, when a decade plus of NFL football is on the other side of that argument.

Dupree's floor is Connor Barwin. I would take that and figure out how to work with it or use him as a stunt rusher or whatever.

I don't want to put words into franco's mouth but there is the old saying that playing the run is at least 50% desire. Anyone that watched any of the SEC games except Mizzo watched Dupree get the shit kicked out of him in all aspects. And it appears many teams game plans were based around running right at Dupree.

You continue to repeat the "elite athleticism" theory...despite the fact that the best pass rusher since 2012 is Chandler Jones and his 11.5 sacks in 2013. And his measurables are almost identical to Jarvis Jones. With that measure the standard guys like Suggs, Mathis, Dumervil, Deebo, etc.. never play for an NFL team.

If you look at last years NFL 10 sack guys you will find well over 90% of them had at least 10 sacks at some point in there college career. Dupree's floor is never starting because he is such a liability vs the run.

This is a great post illustrating how metrics fall apart, when it comes to football. So much of it is heart & want to, you simply can't predict it. Sure the guys listed have an outlier quality, but it's not one that is a standard measurement. The ones you can use paper to grade future production usually go top 10. They're sure things. Any example that fits the "prototype" seems like it can be met or exceeded with guys that don't.

Heart & desire creates an outlier quality. They simply use the strengths that they had been born with & excel at it.

JH for example, no one thought he would be as dominant as he was, & when produced, people started taking lean into consideration, & his low center of gravity. It was all trying to figure out how a guy that didn't fit the mold could be so affecttive. Charts started flying around showing his angle to ground & distance traveled. Who taught James that was his best chance of success? I bet a dime to a dollar he didnt even know thats what was his outlier quality. It's because he put in more than everyone else every time the ball was snapped. It's not technique.

[bradshaw2ben]

Jarvis Jones can have all the heart, want-to, technique, hand fighting, etc in the world... if he's not fast enough/bendy enough to get around the edge nor explosive enough to threaten the bull rush, he's unlikely to be a dominant NFL pass rusher. This is where tape study and performance analysis falls apart... when it comes to metrics analysis. Harrison would likely be an explosion qualifier and might be a speed/bend qualifier. He is, at least in part, succeeding because he has more power explosion and bend than most pass rushers. Sure, he couples that with effort and desire-- he's the perfect storm. If he did all of that without the power/bend, he'd be just another tough guy facing elite athletes with superior technique to anyone in the college game.

Of all the players good enough to be drafted in the top 100 picks to play 3-4 edge rusher over the course of the past 10 drafts or so who passed the Waldo filters-- 1... ONE... failed to be a good NFL player by 2 years into the job or so. AND, that guy is still in the league. He's not living up to his draft position but he's not completely washed out either.

[Legacy User]

Jarvis Jones can have all the heart, want-to, technique, hand fighting, etc in the world... if he's not fast enough/bendy enough to get around the edge nor explosive enough to threaten the bull rush, he's unlikely to be a dominant NFL pass rusher. This is where tape study and performance analysis falls apart... when it comes to metrics analysis. Harrison would likely be an explosion qualifier and might be a speed/bend qualifier. He is, at least in part, succeeding because he has more power explosion and bend than most pass rushers. Sure, he couples that with effort and desire-- he's the perfect storm. If he did all of that without the power/bend, he'd be just another tough guy facing elite athletes with superior technique to anyone in the college game.

Of all the players good enough to be drafted in the top 100 picks to play 3-4 edge rusher over the course of the past 10 drafts or so who passed the Waldo filters-- 1... ONE... failed to be a good NFL player by 2 years into the job or so. AND, that guy is still in the league. He's not living up to his draft position but he's not completely washed out either.

Harrison would not pass the Waldo filters as size, 1.7 split, mid 20s reps are all losers. And the Waldo low risk groups from 2012 have 4 sacks spread across seven players...and all 4 go to Collins- two of which were unblocked. JJ is beating the shit out of all of them collectively.

The player most Deebo like in this draft is James Vaughters. He's actually significantly faster and stronger but hasn't shown that sort of bend. But he does have some excellent tape and according to PFF was the most productive edge rusher and run stuffer this year. But Stanfords starters didn't play much.

[bradshaw2ben]

Jarvis Jones can have all the heart, want-to, technique, hand fighting, etc in the world... if he's not fast enough/bendy enough to get around the edge nor explosive enough to threaten the bull rush, he's unlikely to be a dominant NFL pass rusher. This is where tape study and performance analysis falls apart... when it comes to metrics analysis. Harrison would likely be an explosion qualifier and might be a speed/bend qualifier. He is, at least in part, succeeding because he has more power explosion and bend than most pass rushers. Sure, he couples that with effort and desire-- he's the perfect storm. If he did all of that without the power/bend, he'd be just another tough guy facing elite athletes with superior technique to anyone in the college game.

Of all the players good enough to be drafted in the top 100 picks to play 3-4 edge rusher over the course of the past 10 drafts or so who passed the Waldo filters-- 1... ONE... failed to be a good NFL player by 2 years into the job or so. AND, that guy is still in the league. He's not living up to his draft position but he's not completely washed out either.

Harrison would not pass the Waldo filters as size, 1.7 split, mid 20s reps are all losers. And the Waldo low risk groups from 2012 have 4 sacks spread across seven players...and all 4 go to Collins- two of which were unblocked. JJ is beating the shit out of all of them collectively.

The player most Deebo like in this draft is James Vaughters. He's actually significantly faster and stronger but hasn't shown that sort of bend. But he does have some excellent tape and according to PFF was the most productive edge rusher and run stuffer this year. But Stanfords starters didn't play much.

Harrison would actually get a boost because his compact size means more mass explosion. The filter penalizes long armed/limbed guys who can jump because it doesn't create the same bowling ball of knives. His 1.7 split would help sell him as not just straight line. Bench reps are completely irrelevant to the Waldo filters.

Which of the top 100 picks in 2012 that passed the filters is playing 3-4 OLB and failing? None? I thought so. Who knows what kind of opportunity a 3rd day pick with athleticism who's not as good a football player on college tape is going to get?

I think you mean 2013, anyway, and there were only two qualifiers that year: Jamie Collins and Cornelius Washington. Washington was the 188th pick in the draft and Collins went to play 4-3 OLB and be a 2nd team all-pro. So what was your point exactly?

[Legacy User]

Harrison would actually get a boost because his compact size means more mass explosion. The filter penalizes long armed/limbed guys who can jump because it doesn't create the same bowling ball of knives. His 1.7 split would help sell him as not just straight line. Bench reps are completely irrelevant to the Waldo filters.

Which of the top 100 picks in 2012 that passed the filters is playing 3-4 OLB and failing? None? I thought so. Who knows what kind of opportunity a 3rd day pick with athleticism who's not as good a football player on college tape is going to get?

I think you mean 2013, anyway, and there were only two qualifiers that year: Jamie Collins and Cornelius Washington. Washington was the 188th pick in the draft and Collins went to play 4-3 OLB and be a 2nd team all-pro. So what was your point exactly?

No, Harrison didn't jump well and the 1.7 split is the first 10 of the 40 and the Mendoza line is 1.65.

There were two other low risk groups that year. Devin Taylor from SC was low risk group one, unemployed. low risk group two consisted of Washington and Collins...who wasn't good enough on the edge to beat out Jones or Nincovich, while Washington I believe is unemployed.

Mid low risk group consisted of Ansah, Dave Bass, Corey Lemoner, Chase Thomas, and Sio Moore. So Ansah is the best out of there rated players, Jones has been better then everyone else, while Chandler Jones, a waldo loser has hung the only double digit NFL sack season.

I tend to agree on the low round oppertunity thing...but not as much pass rusher. Teams work passing game looking at young QBs all game long...any sack stands out.

[bradshaw2ben]

Do you have James Harrison workout numbers? I do not and would love to have them.

Devin Taylor almost qualified but he did not... Barely

I don't know what you're referring to about Mendoza line for 10 yd that's not how Waldo works. It's 10yd - SS/4 vs 1.6

[Legacy User]

The numbers from Harrisons pro day are 5.01 and 5.03, 1.7 split, 28 reps, but nothing on the agilities. Vaughters did 35 reps and ran a 4.73...but no split available. He also supposedly squats over 700.

The "Mendoza line" is 1.65 and is generally believed to be the highest split a prospect can run and still have the get off of a pro bowl pass rusher.

Waldo actually has 3 groups of "low risk" players...Smith belongs to low risk group 1 which is just slightly behind the Collins/Washington group. Ansah and the others belong to what they call low to med risk group...and I included those mostly because Ansah, imo not C Jones, is the best pass rusher from this class to this point, if for no other reason CJs injury history.

[bradshaw2ben]

Taylor does not qualify in either top group. His twitch has to be below 1.1 and it is 1.1. The guy who posted that is not Waldo and was wrong-- I pointed that out to him at the time.

The low-mid risk group is incredibly less predictive than low risk 1 and 2, where steroid Boy from Nevada is the only real fail in top 100 picks.

Reps don't seem to translate to sacks-- certainly they show something for run base. I'm sure there are elite pass rushers with slower than 1.65 and straight line sub 1.6 guys who failed.

[Legacy User]

Reps don't seem to translate to sacks-- certainly they show something for run base. I'm sure there are elite pass rushers with slower than 1.65 and straight line sub 1.6 guys who failed.

I do consider reps as a viable measure of overall upper body strength and imo any pass rush that begins gap responsible in the run game is somewhat dependent on upper body strength i.e. any pass rush that doesn't start by getting up the field.

I'm not sure of any successful pass rusher beyond Deebo that has greater then a 1.65 split. I'm fairly sure that guys like Hali, Suggs, and Dumervil are right at the 1.65 cut off. It's not my theory, I'm virtually 100% film these days, so I'm not certain it holds up...but it is something I consider.