Super Bowl XL

[bradshaw2ben]

I think stats hold some value.

They give us a way of quantifying performance to help balance the eye test or give perspective on what we watch.

No argument... but the problem is there are long-established, commonly used stats that don't tell you much.

[Steel Mike]

I think stats hold some value.

They give us a way of quantifying performance to help balance the eye test or give perspective on what we watch.

No argument... but the problem is there are long-established, commonly used stats that don't tell you much.

For sure. Not all stats are created (or used) equally.

[Legacy User]

I think stats hold some value.

They give us a way of quantifying performance to help balance the eye test or give perspective on what we watch.

No argument... but the problem is there are long-established, commonly used stats that don't tell you much.

For sure. Not all stats are created (or used) equally.

Put it another way: there are stats and then there is clutch. I never cringe watching Ben in Super Bowl XL. He was clutch, great game. The eternal fountain of tears from the Puget Sound metro area is delicious.

[Steel Mike]

Right on.

Games shouldn't ever be evaluated strictly through the stats lens or eye-test lens. I think a little of both help to give a full picture.

But I think you guys are right in saying that this particular game certainly feels like Ben did better than a 22QBR or whatever because of the big plays he did make. So if you had a perfect stat that could give more weight to those big plays then perhaps it would be a different number.

Or, in other words, context matters.

[StillMadAtSlobber]

Right on.

Games shouldn't ever be evaluated strictly through the stats lens or eye-test lens. I think a little of both help to give a full picture.

But I think you guys are right in saying that this particular game certainly feels like Ben did better than a 22QBR or whatever because of the big plays he did make. So if you had a perfect stat that could give more weight to those big plays then perhaps it would be a different number.

Or, in other words, context matters.

Not really.
Because then you end up with a Full Retard stat. We have it. Its the ESPN QBR.

ESPN's QBR is the dumbest stat in sports (Tom Brady was fifth, behind Ryan Fitzpatrick!)


By: Chris Chase | November 13, 2015 10:22 am Follow @firechrischase

In 2011, ESPN tried to create a better way to rate quarterbacks, as the standard system — a ridiculous, indecipherable QB rating that had, for some reason, a maximum score of 158.3 — was deemed illogical. Enter QBR which is so logical that, entering Week 10, Ryan Fitzpatrick was rated ahead of Tom Brady. Mission accomplished, eh ESPN! So, we dug into that startling finding and other absurdities of the dumbest stat in sports (which is saying something).

1. Prior to Thursday’s game, here were the stat lines for the aforementioned quarterbacks:





So, Fitzpatrick had fewer wins, completions, completion percentage, yards (by almost 1,000!), touchdowns, Y/A, Y/C, QB rating and more interceptions. But his QBR is 76.7, third in the league, while Brady is slumming it at 73.9, good for fifth. Yeah. I don’t know either.

2. When QBR was unveiled to no fanfare in 2011, it required nearly 2,500 words of explanation. As much as one can sum up 2,500 words in one paragraph, this one seemed to hit at the core of QBR:

What underlies QBR is an understanding of how football works and a lot of detailed situational data. What it yields are results that should reflect that. It illustrates that converting on third-and-long is important to a quarterback. It shows that a pass that is in the air for 40 yards is more reflective of a quarterback than a pass that is in the air for 5 yards and the receiver has 35 yards of run after the catch. These premises should sound reasonable to football fans. They come out of a lot of statistical analysis, but they are also consistent with what coaches and players understand.

That’s totally great. But Ryan Fitzpatrick is ahead of Tom Brady, so it’s really, really not.

3. Some other facts, according to QBR, through Week 9:

Ryan Fitzpatrick > Aaron Rodgers

Tyrod Taylor > Ben Roethlisberger

Jay Cutler > Philip Rivers

Brian Hoyer > Russell Wilson

Ryan Mallett > Cam Newton

Ryan Mallett > Matthew Stafford

Ryan Mallett > Andrew Luck

Ryan Mallett > Joe Flacco

Ryan Mallett > Nick Foles

Ryan Mallett > Sam Bradford

4. The fourth best game of the year, according to QBR, came from Teddy Bridgewater who went 14/18, 153 yards, with one touchdown in a game against the Detroit Lions.



5. This one’s my favorite: The all-time best game in QBR history was when Charlie Batch (!!!) beat Tampa in early 2010. Here’s Batch’s stat line for that game (oh, I love this so much): 12/17, 186 yards, 10.9 avg, 3 TD, 2 INT, 106.5 rating, 99.9 QBR, all in a game in which the Steelers won 38-13! Two interceptions! A blowout! A QB rating that was nice but hardly anything special! And that was almost perfect according to QBR.

6. So in this new-fangled stat that was going to unlock the mysteries of football, a game not normally given to statistical analysis, ESPN of course normalized for defenses right? I mean, it’s one thing to have Tom Brady to throw for 360 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions but to do that against the Broncos is much different and much more impressive. That defensive talent is surely taken into account, right? NOPE!

With this rating, we have intentionally not adjusted for opponents. This doesn’t mean that we won’t adjust for opponents as we use it but that we want QBR to be flexible for many purposes, and keeping opponents’ strength out gives us that flexibility.

Translation: “We didn’t know what to do with this and we already have a system that is making a decent Charlie Batch game our best game ever, so just get off our backs already.”

7. With Fitzpatrick playing a usual mediocre game on Thursday in a Jets loss, he actually moved below Brady, one of the sadder development of the NFL season.

8. I don’t blame QBR for being horrible. I blame football for being a game that’s not like baseball. There are too many moving parts to rate a quarterback on a great game — his offensive line, speed of receivers, tipped balls, drops, closing speed of corners, situational passes, down-and-distances, etc. It’ll never work. But good on ESPN for trying. Just realize when you’ve failed and pull the plug on this idiocy.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/11/espn-qbr-stat-worst-stat-tom-brady-behind-ryan-fitzpatrick-what-is-qbr

Oh, and FYI, last years QBs by QBR

2015 Regular Season NFL Leaders
RK PLAYER TOTAL QBR
1 Carson Palmer, ARI 82.1
2 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT 76.9
3 Drew Brees, NO 75.5
4 Russell Wilson, SEA 74.9
5 Andy Dalton, CIN 73.1
6 Kirk Cousins, WSH 70.1
7 Tyrod Taylor, BUF 67.8
8 Alex Smith, KC 66.5
9 Cam Newton, CAR 66.1
10 Aaron Rodgers, GB 64.9
11 Tom Brady, NE 64.4
12 Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ 63.6
13 Teddy Bridgewater, MIN 62.7
14 Matthew Stafford, DET 62.6
15 Matt Ryan, ATL 61.8
16 Marcus Mariota, TEN 61.0
17 Jay Cutler, CHI 60.7
18 Eli Manning, NYG 60.5
19 Brian Hoyer, HOU 59.6
20 Philip Rivers, SD 59.4
21 Jameis Winston, TB 58.6
22 Josh McCown, CLE 53.9
23 Derek Carr, OAK 49.2
24 Brock Osweiler, DEN 48.8
25 Andrew Luck, IND 47.6
26 Colin Kaepernick, SF 47.1
27 Blake Bortles, JAX 46.4
28 Peyton Manning, DEN 45.0
29 Ryan Tannehill, MIA 43.1
30 Blaine Gabbert, SF 42.6
31 Sam Bradford, PHI 41.8
32 Joe Flacco, BAL 40.9
33 Nick Foles, LA 30.0

from http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

[Legacy User]

I watched that game vs the Bucs. I had no idea I was watching the greatest performance in history by a quarterback.

[bradshaw2ben]

DYAR and DVOA are pretty good. Not perfect but better.

[Steel Mike]

Right, like I said, if there was a perfect stat. There isn't such a thing and there will never be one.

ESPN fucks up wet dreams.

[Legacy User]

B2B. love you, brother.

26 years. Bradshaw to Ben. You have it right.

This team was fucking fired the fuck up to win this for the Bus.

And to shed the monkey from Bill Cowher's back. A great coach who didn't seem able to achieve the greatness his fire and intensity promised. He did here, finally.

Our D was fucking great as fuck this post-season. Make no mistake. I actually think we were better defensively in 05 than in 08 when the post-season rolled around. Thoughts?

26 years. One for the Thumb. We couldn't do it in 1980 or 1981. We had to wait until 2-thousand-fucking-five. But oh man. When we did it, we did it. Bring it on, baby.

[Legacy User]

I've always been disappointed that some of the more tech savvy Steeler fans never went through that film and compiled a bunch of images/clips indicating all the Seahawks infractions that weren't called as a counter-point to the narrative.

[Drummer Boy]

DYAR and DVOA are pretty good. Not perfect but better.

DVOA is the best thing out there, when measuring offense, defense, special teams, general team strength, pass vs. run, etc. I think it breaks down when measuring individuals, like every stat out there. The sample sizes are too small and the game is too organic.

[StillMadAtSlobber]

So I was looking more on ESPN regarding that QBR. I was wondering what his QBR for SBXL was, because that would really argue the stat, given the clutch plays he made.


http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/year/0/type/alltime-game

I did find these games by Ben. Starting with the 2006 season, apparently.
I think they changed it up, given the stupidity of Batches game being #1.

* All-Time Best Games: Minimum of 20 action plays.
* All-time data reflects 2006 onwards.
PASS EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on plays with pass attempts.
RUN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added through rushes.
SACK EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added (lost) on sacks.
PEN EPA: Clutch-weighted expected points added on penalties.
TOTAL EPA: Total clutch-weighted expected points added.
ACT PLAYS: Plays on which the QB has a non-zero expected points contribution. Includes most plays that are not handoffs.
QB PAR: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of a quarterback who plays very rarely and is on the fringe of the NFL.
QB PAA: Number of points contributed by a quarterback over the season, accounting for QBR and how much he plays, above the level of an average quarterback.
TOTAL QBR: Total Quarterback Rating, which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.


Regular Season
All-Time* NFL Leaders
RK PLAYER RESULT
PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS QB PAR QB PAA TOTAL QBR
1 Colin Kaepernick, SF W 42-10 @ JAX on 10/27/13 2.9 5.2 0.0 0.9 8.9 24 13.3 11.4 99.8
1 Tom Brady, NE W 49-28 @ MIA on 10/21/07 7.9 0.0 -0.3 0.2 7.8 28 15.5 13.3 99.8

14 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 43-18 vs SF on 9/20/15 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 10.6 32 14.5 11.9 99.4
15 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 38-7 vs BAL on 11/5/07 5.5 0.0 -0.6 0.5 5.4 21 9.4 7.7 99.3
21 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 51-34 vs IND on 10/26/14 13.8 -0.2 0.0 0.3 13.8 53 22.8 18.5 99.1
52 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 24-13 @ CIN on 10/28/07 8.9 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 9.3 30 11.5 9.0 98.4
55 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 41-9 @ CLE on 1/2/11 4.5 1.0 0.0 0.2 5.7 28 10.6 8.4 98.3
106 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 45-7 vs KC on 10/15/06 4.6 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 4.2 23 7.8 5.9 97.1
131 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 27-12 vs WSH on 10/28/12 8.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 8.1 36 11.6 8.7 96.4
154 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 45-10 vs IND on 12/6/15 9.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.5 43 13.4 10.0 95.9
182 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 27-10 vs NYJ on 9/16/12 10.4 0.0 -1.1 -0.1 9.2 37 11.3 8.3 95.5
211 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 27-20 @ ATL on 12/14/14 9.7 0.0 -0.5 0.1 9.3 36 10.6 7.7 94.8
225 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 30-20 vs CIN on 12/15/13 4.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 4.1 28 8.1 5.8 94.5


Post Season
All-Time* NFL Leaders
RK PLAYER RESULT
PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS QB PAR QB PAA TOTAL QBR
1 Tom Brady, NE W 31-20 vs JAX on 1/12/08 10.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 9.7 30 10.6 8.2 97.7

32 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 35-24 vs SD on 1/11/09 5.2 0.0 -0.5 0.7 5.4 32 6.6 4.0 84.6
93 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 24-19 vs NYJ on 1/23/11 1.5 1.1 -0.4 0.0 2.1 30 3.2 0.8 59.0
107 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT L 23-16 @ DEN on 1/17/16 4.8 0.0 -2.0 0.5 3.3 42 3.8 0.4 53.2
117 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 31-24 vs BAL on 1/15/11 5.6 0.2 -4.2 1.5 3.0 47 3.6 -0.2 48.6
124 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 27-23 @ ARI on 2/1/09 4.9 -0.5 -1.6 -0.5 2.4 42 2.8 -0.5 45.6
130 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 18-16 @ CIN on 1/9/16 3.5 0.0 -1.5 -0.1 2.0 38 2.3 -0.8 43.1
136 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT W 23-14 vs BAL on 1/18/09 4.0 0.0 -2.2 -0.0 1.7 40 2.1 -1.1 40.8
154 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT L 29-23 @ DEN on 1/8/12 2.6 0.3 -1.7 0.3 1.4 54 1.9 -2.4 35.2 (TEBOW)
157 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT L 31-25 @ GB on 2/6/11 0.6 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 1.1 48 1.7 -2.2 34.9
158 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT L 30-17 vs BAL on 1/3/15 3.8 0.0 -2.1 -0.4 1.4 56 1.9 -2.6 34.7
192 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT L 31-29 vs JAX on 1/5/08 1.6 -1.0 -3.7 2.0 -1.2 56 -1.2 -5.7 19.9