Why is TJ still the favorite for DPOY?

[TimmayLake]

Of all years for him to win DPOY, this doesn't seem like it would be it. He's had a very quiet season by his standards, but the sportsbooks still have him as the frontrunner, which probably means he'll win it.

But why is he the favorite? Has to be because the Steelers are 10-3 or are they using the mysterious "pass rush win rate" metric which they used to justify Garrett winning last year despite also completely disappearing from the stat sheet in the back half of the season?

[TTP]

Yeah, it's kinda weird. There isn't a clear front runner this year so maybe this is a projection based on past performance?

IMO, Cam Heyward is more deserving than TJ this year. He's been really good and very consistent. Cam was collapsing the pocket all afternoon yesterday even racking up 2 sacks.

TJ has seemed disinterested at times this year when chipped/doubled. There are other times when he just loops way around the QB without any real effort to make it back to the play. He is also getting held a lot. Seems frustrated and just gives up. Very unlike him.

[OhioSteeler]

It feels like it has become an award focused on sacks too much. He's only 2 behind the league leader in sacks. He also has 47 total tackles, 17 TFLs, 3 PDs, and 5 FF. I agree it feels like he doesn't get home nearly as much, but he's still heavily affecting what offenses try to do.

[Dan Smith--BYU]

Based on the voodoo shit happening in KC, someone on their D should be the favorite, probably Chris Jones.

[LakecrestSteeler]

It feels like it has become an award focused on sacks too much. He's only 2 behind the league leader in sacks. He also has 47 total tackles, 17 TFLs, 3 PDs, and 5 FF. I agree it feels like he doesn't get home nearly as much, but he's still heavily affecting what offenses try to do.

He has also created an Edge factory on the team. Herbig has stepped in and looks like TJ's mini me, which is clearly a result of downloading moves, tendencies, practice & work ethic; doesn't show up in the stats for DPOY, but when you clearly have an impact on a squad to the degree Watt has, it should count for something.

[zeke5123]

Yeah, it's kinda weird. There isn't a clear front runner this year so maybe this is a projection based on past performance?

IMO, Cam Heyward is more deserving than TJ this year. He's been really good and very consistent. Cam was collapsing the pocket all afternoon yesterday even racking up 2 sacks.

TJ has seemed disinterested at times this year when chipped/doubled. There are other times when he just loops way around the QB without any real effort to make it back to the play. He is also getting held a lot. Seems frustrated and just gives up. Very unlike him.

It was weird. Yesterday, it seemed like the Steelers pass rushers were beating the Browns, but couldn't get their arms free at the last second. I don't think there was a single holding call against either team, but in those situations where the defender has beaten the linemen but can't disengage you'd expect there factually to be holding.

[Deebo]

There's a thing called "make up calls"

I think there was a ton of outcry last year he didn't get it (and deservedly was questioned).
Now that he's having a lesser season, but still within the general range of "pretty damn good" the voters will hand it to him this year.

Jones from KC could have a legitimate complaint though.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Yeah, it's kinda weird. There isn't a clear front runner this year so maybe this is a projection based on past performance?

IMO, Cam Heyward is more deserving than TJ this year. He's been really good and very consistent. Cam was collapsing the pocket all afternoon yesterday even racking up 2 sacks.

TJ has seemed disinterested at times this year when chipped/doubled. There are other times when he just loops way around the QB without any real effort to make it back to the play. He is also getting held a lot. Seems frustrated and just gives up. Very unlike him.

It was weird. Yesterday, it seemed like the Steelers pass rushers were beating the Browns, but couldn't get their arms free at the last second. I don't think there was a single holding call against either team, but in those situations where the defender has beaten the linemen but can't disengage you'd expect there factually to be holding.

Throw on top of this, I am sure we will see Tomlin doing this on Hard knocks, but you know they were preaching not to let Winston out of the pocket. So they all had to do controlled rushes, which makes it a little harder to get sacks. Highsmith will get yelled at for losing contain on his spin move. I think the Edgers were told to just push the prey to the DTs.

[Stosh-67]

Leads the NFL with 17 TFL.
set the tone yesterday with first play blown up...5 yard tackle for loss.

5 forced fumbles lead the league.

9.5 sacks on the year, in a year in which sacks are down.

the league leader only has 11.5,
which is as low as I can remember with 4 weeks to go,
when we think of 18-20+ sack seasons

with fleet footed Hurts, Lamar and Mahomes coming up.....not as many chances for sacks in the next 3 weeks.

[Pabst]

Might be worth noting that Aiden Hutchinson was a borderline lock for the award before he got hurt.

[zeke5123]

Leads the NFL with 17 TFL.
set the tone yesterday with first play blown up...5 yard tackle for loss.

5 forced fumbles lead the league.

9.5 sacks on the year, in a year in which sacks are down.

the league leader only has 11.5,
which is as low as I can remember with 4 weeks to go,
when we think of 18-20+ sack seasons

with fleet footed Hurts, Lamar and Mahomes coming up.....not as many chances for sacks in the next 3 weeks.

I wonder if holding calls are way down. May explain why sacks are down across the league.

[zeke5123]

Yeah, it's kinda weird. There isn't a clear front runner this year so maybe this is a projection based on past performance?

IMO, Cam Heyward is more deserving than TJ this year. He's been really good and very consistent. Cam was collapsing the pocket all afternoon yesterday even racking up 2 sacks.

TJ has seemed disinterested at times this year when chipped/doubled. There are other times when he just loops way around the QB without any real effort to make it back to the play. He is also getting held a lot. Seems frustrated and just gives up. Very unlike him.

It was weird. Yesterday, it seemed like the Steelers pass rushers were beating the Browns, but couldn't get their arms free at the last second. I don't think there was a single holding call against either team, but in those situations where the defender has beaten the linemen but can't disengage you'd expect there factually to be holding.

Throw on top of this, I am sure we will see Tomlin doing this on Hard knocks, but you know they were preaching not to let Winston out of the pocket. So they all had to do controlled rushes, which makes it a little harder to get sacks. Highsmith will get yelled at for losing contain on his spin move. I think the Edgers were told to just push the prey to the DTs.

Also, can we talk about the grounding called against Wilson? It was a throw away. There was sort of a guy in the vicinity and he was being hit while throwing. Jamies threw one about fifteen yards past the sidelines. But the ref pointed to a Cleveland player at the boundary. Just insane.

With that said, that personal foul penalty on Toney was pretty bad (I dont think in any way he was trying to hit the Steeler with the football).

[Deebo]

Leads the NFL with 17 TFL.
set the tone yesterday with first play blown up...5 yard tackle for loss.

5 forced fumbles lead the league.

9.5 sacks on the year, in a year in which sacks are down.

the league leader only has 11.5,
which is as low as I can remember with 4 weeks to go,
when we think of 18-20+ sack seasons

with fleet footed Hurts, Lamar and Mahomes coming up.....not as many chances for sacks in the next 3 weeks.

I wonder if holding calls are way down. May explain why sacks are down across the league.

It's that plus they basically allow the tackles to leave a half second early. It's ridiculous. Watch the Bills/Rams game last night? LT moved clear as day and the Rams converted that 4th down. I'd be pissed if I was a Bills fan

[Pabst]

Sacks are actually higher than average across the NFL this year. Thus far, sacks/game are at their 4th highest level in the last 30 years:

Screenshot 2024-12-09 120305.png (151.38 KiB) Viewed 1283 times

The anomaly isn't that sacks are down, it's that no one individual is running away with the sack title.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Sacks are actually higher than average across the NFL this year. Thus far, sacks/game are at their 4th highest level in the last 30 years:

Screenshot 2024-12-09 120305.png

The anomaly isn't that sacks are down, it's that no one individual is running away with the sack title.

I would guess it is the kick-off rule changes?

Avg starting field position has to be 30 and change, which i would guess has been increasing over the last 5 years as they tweak the rules.

Therefore, I would hypothesize the number of possessions in which a sack can happen have been reduced by 10%? 10yards? or is there some sort of exponential number due to the change in starting field position?

Avg starting field position is probably the biggest reason for the lower sacks this year, especially if points are up.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Sacks are actually higher than average across the NFL this year. Thus far, sacks/game are at their 4th highest level in the last 30 years:

Screenshot 2024-12-09 120305.png

The anomaly isn't that sacks are down, it's that no one individual is running away with the sack title.

I would guess it is the kick-off rule changes?

Avg starting field position has to be 30 and change, which i would guess has been increasing over the last 5 years as they tweak the rules.

Therefore, I would hypothesize the number of possessions in which a sack can happen have been reduced by 10%? 10yards? or is there some sort of exponential number due to the change in starting field position?

If there is a step change downward, Avg starting field position is probably the biggest reason for the lower sacks this year, especially if points are up.

[Texas Black & Gold]

Maybe because he should have won it last year and the people that make these decisions feel guilty for their negligence. Or perhaps he is the impact player most sane people think he is.

[Pabst]

Sacks are actually higher than average across the NFL this year. Thus far, sacks/game are at their 4th highest level in the last 30 years:

Screenshot 2024-12-09 120305.png

The anomaly isn't that sacks are down, it's that no one individual is running away with the sack title.

I would guess it is the kick-off rule changes?

Avg starting field position has to be 30 and change, which i would guess has been increasing over the last 5 years as they tweak the rules.

Therefore, I would hypothesize the number of possessions in which a sack can happen have been reduced by 10%? 10yards? or is there some sort of exponential number due to the change in starting field position?

Avg starting field position is probably the biggest reason for the lower sacks this year, especially if points are up.

No idea, honestly.

I will say, however, that it's best to wait til the seasons over to start comparing year-to-year stats.

[955876]

Only award I care bout is SB MVP.

And don’t care who gets it as long as they wear the black & gold.

[Stillerz Bar]

It feels like it has become an award focused on sacks too much. He's only 2 behind the league leader in sacks. He also has 47 total tackles, 17 TFLs, 3 PDs, and 5 FF. I agree it feels like he doesn't get home nearly as much, but he's still heavily affecting what offenses try to do.

This is kind of where I am too. His 17 TFLs and 5 FFs both lead the league and those are pretty important numbers when he's just 2 sacks behind the league leader. I know it probably doesn't matter to the people making the odds, but he also had several sacks and FFs taken away because of bad penalties - heck, if they hadn't incorrectly called him offsides early in the season (don't remember the game), he'd have one more sack & FF.

With all of that said, more than in past years, it seems like his game s are hit or miss. He's either having a huge impact on the game or almost invisible. To be fair though, the games he's been invisible it seems like Herbig or Highsmith have big games and I'll take one of those 3 having a monster game every week of TJ being more dominant and the others mostly quiet. Spreading it around is good for the team in the long run whether it is intended or not.

[W&M_Steeler]

Only award I care bout is SB MVP.

And don’t care who gets it as long as they wear the black & gold.

If Cam wins DPOY and a SB MVP, I will definitely stop calling him Mr. October

[955876]

Ha. Thats fair.

I might even consider dropping Jibba Jabber if we manage to win the SB.

Not holding my breath though.

[LakecrestSteeler]

Only award I care bout is SB MVP.

And don’t care who gets it as long as they wear the black & gold.

And they don’t decide to give it to the losing team’s MVP that year!

You should wish for DPOY award though. Correlation with Super Bowl is very very high!

The Super Bowl winners on this list! It is littered with Trophies and rings! Hopefully a precursor of things to come!

Season Player Position Team
1971 Alan Page Defensive tackle Minnesota Vikings
1972 Joe Greene Defensive tackle Pittsburgh Steelers
1973 Dick Anderson Safety Miami Dolphins
1974 Joe Greene (2) Defensive tackle Pittsburgh Steelers
1975 Mel Blount Cornerback Pittsburgh Steelers
1976 Jack Lambert Linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
1977 Harvey Martin Defensive end Dallas Cowboys
1978 Randy Gradishar Linebacker Denver Broncos
1979 Lee Roy Selmon Defensive end Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1980 Lester Hayes Cornerback Oakland Raiders
1981 Lawrence Taylor Linebacker New York Giants
1982 Lawrence Taylor (2) Linebacker New York Giants
1983 Doug Betters Defensive end Miami Dolphins
1984 Kenny Easley Safety Seattle Seahawks
1985 Mike Singletary Linebacker Chicago Bears
1986 Lawrence Taylor (3) Linebacker New York Giants
1987 Reggie White Defensive end Philadelphia Eagles
1988 Mike Singletary (2) Linebacker Chicago Bears
1989 Keith Millard Defensive tackle Minnesota Vikings
1990 Bruce Smith Defensive end Buffalo Bills
1991 Pat Swilling Linebacker New Orleans Saints
1992 Cortez Kennedy Defensive tackle Seattle Seahawks
1993 Rod Woodson Cornerback Pittsburgh Steelers
1994 Deion Sanders Cornerback San Francisco 49ers
1995 Bryce Paup Linebacker Buffalo Bills
1996 Bruce Smith (2) Defensive end Buffalo Bills
1997 Dana Stubblefield Defensive tackle San Francisco 49ers
1998 Reggie White (2) Defensive end Green Bay Packers
1999 Warren Sapp Defensive tackle Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2000 Ray Lewis Linebacker Baltimore Ravens
2001 Michael Strahan Defensive end New York Giants
2002 Derrick Brooks Linebacker Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2003 Ray Lewis (2) Linebacker Baltimore Ravens
2004 Ed Reed Safety Baltimore Ravens
2005 Brian Urlacher Linebacker Chicago Bears
2006 Jason Taylor Defensive end Miami Dolphins
2007 Bob Sanders Safety Indianapolis Colts
2008 James Harrison Linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
2009 Charles Woodson Cornerback Green Bay Packers
2010 Troy Polamalu Safety Pittsburgh Steelers
2011 Terrell Suggs Linebacker Baltimore Ravens
2012 J. J. Watt Defensive end Houston Texans
2013 Luke Kuechly Linebacker Carolina Panthers
2014 J. J. Watt (2) Defensive end Houston Texans
2015 J. J. Watt (3) Defensive end Houston Texans
2016 Khalil Mack Defensive end Oakland Raiders
2017 Aaron Donald Defensive tackle Los Angeles Rams
2018 Aaron Donald (2) Defensive tackle Los Angeles Rams
2019 Stephon Gilmore Cornerback New England Patriots
2020 Aaron Donald (3) Defensive tackle Los Angeles Rams
2021 T. J. Watt Linebacker Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 Nick Bosa Linebacker San Francisco
2023 Myles Garrett Defensive End Cleveland Sucks

[Steel Bingo]

A lot of praise for how great the Eagles’ offensive line is prior to this Wk 15 match up.

Ideally, Philadelphia will FAFO (fool around find out) that the Steelers have the best pass rusher in the world, and that mano-a-mano is helpless to stop TJ Watt.

[Steelperch]

Might be worth noting that Aiden Hutchinson was a borderline lock for the award before he got hurt.

Nobody is a lock for any award in week 5, ever.

[Pabst]

Might be worth noting that Aiden Hutchinson was a borderline lock for the award before he got hurt.

Nobody is a lock for any award in week 5, ever.

Myles Garrett says hello