Not Kicking the FG

[Kodiak]

I’d have felt better with an 8 point lead. I’m sure at the time you would have as well.

I'll make up my own stat here - after DAL drove down the field at the end there, 99% of fans, coaches and players wished we had kicked the FG.

[Pabst]

Very little downside and the best upside.

I wouldn’t consider the ball being in the opponents hands where a TD wins it as “very little downside” but that’s me.

Especially when they moved right down the field and in position to take a shot at the EZ.

Fortunately they couldn’t connect.

I’d have felt better with an 8 point lead. I’m sure at the time you would have as well.

I definitely would have, but given how shaky the blocking was on three prior kick attempts, and how poor the kick coverage had been, I'm not sure the 8 point lead is a given.

[bradshaw2ben]

This has been the case for a while w/ our short yardage. We've mainly converted by either spread 'em out and short throw or by a draw (although that didn't work today). Our short yardage IOL gets no push and so things get blown up in the backfield.

The only time I remember our IOL getting push in short yardage was with a different RG. Who is now on the bench.

Exactly. said it in another thread that Dotson should be starting of Feiler. I don't know if DeCastro is fully recovered yet but not having Dotson out there is hindering this run game.

It's not Fieler who's underwhelming in the straight ahead run game, it's the other G.

[Mick]

Successful run is a better situation than successful kick;
Unsuccessful run is a better situation than unsuccessful kick.

You really have to love our kicking game and hate our odds of picking up 1 yard to favor kicking it there from a straight winning % perspective. Tomlin said he didnt like our kicking game on sunday, which would make it an easy choice.

Beyond the subjective and fairly arbitrary arguments about expected win %s, kicking guarantees that you have to play and risk key injuries on at least one more drive, and creates an opportunity for an entire extra quarter of injury-potential drives. And how many legit superbowl contending steeler teams can you count just in the tomlin era that collapsed due to key injuries? If parallel universes exist, i guarantee many of them have steelerfury threads complaining about Tomlin not going for it there after losing and/or seeing a key player subsequently go down.

[jeemie]

Ordinarily you’re one of the loudest voices bemoaning that the coach ignores analytics and now you’re suggesting he coach by his gut? Going for it on 4th definitely increases your chances of winning vs attempting a FG. And if you think our short yardage offense was bad, you should have seen our FG protection.

Doing the analytics taking our short game into account most likely makes the FG better odds.

I would have felt more comfortable if I could trust them to put the game in Ben’s hands...but two weeks now and it was the same long-developing outside run.

We’re probably talking about 99% v 98% here, B2B.

In this case then it’s take the option that provides you with more flexibility if there’s a giant fuck up (which there almost was).

On that 4th and 1 we had a 99.9% chance to win.

Turnover on downs dropped that to 81.4%.

Kicking FG would have had it at 95.6%.

Kicking a FG actually reduces the chances of winning by 4.3%. Making the 4th down conversion makes it 100%, a .1% increase. Turnover on downs only reduced the chances of winning by 5.8% over making the FG. Missing the FG is worse than not converting the 4th down becasue of the yardage lost. Having the kick blocked and returned for a TD would be bad. Having the kick blocked and returned close to the goal line but not in would have, in all likelihood cost the game becasue of the ability to run out the clock.

The risk in going for it and failing on 4th down was 5.8% over the best-case scenario and zounds better than all the other worse scenarios. The reward for making it is: game over and you win. Very little downside and the best upside. It's actually a better analytics play to go for it. That play call, though...

The way Tomlin plays the short yardage game I am putting the odds of missing on fourth down as much higher than average.

You can’t use standard numbers when it comes to Mike Tomlin.

You simply cannot.

[jeemie]

Successful run is a better situation than successful kick;
Unsuccessful run is a better situation than unsuccessful kick.

You really have to love our kicking game and hate our odds of picking up 1 yard to favor kicking it there from a straight winning % perspective. Tomlin said he didnt like our kicking game on sunday, which would make it an easy choice.

Beyond the subjective and fairly arbitrary arguments about expected win %s, kicking guarantees that you have to play and risk key injuries on at least one more drive, and creates an opportunity for an entire extra quarter of injury-potential drives. And how many legit superbowl contending steeler teams can you count just in the tomlin era that collapsed due to key injuries? If parallel universes exist, i guarantee many of them have steelerfury threads complaining about Tomlin not going for it there after losing and/or seeing a key player subsequently go down.

As I said...if Mike Tomlin was better in short yardage situations I’d have been more comfortable going for it.

Two straight weeks on fourth and short he dials up the slow as shit outside run play.

Put the damn game in Ben’s hands if you are going to go for it.

[Kodiak]

As I said...if Mike Tomlin was better in short yardage situations I’d have been more comfortable going for it.

Two straight weeks on fourth and short he dials up the slow as shit outside run play.

Put the damn game in Ben’s hands if you are going to go for it.

It's another dumbass decision with an even more ridiculous rationalization in a long line of dumbass gut decisions.

He didn't like his kicking game, so he went for 4th and 1. The problem with that is the short-yardage game was absolutely awful, and has been pretty consistently throughout the season.

If Tomlin was afraid of kicking the FG, by the same logic he should have been MORE afraid of going for 4th and 1. It's our short-yardage game that makes kicking the FG a no-brainer.

In almost every scenario, you should kick the FG. You're up 1, then you make them need a TD. You're up 4, you make them need a TD. And in the most obvious of situations, you kick a FG to make them need a TD, 2-pt conversion and OT to beat you.

Perhaps only when you're up 3 does going for it make more sense.

[stillcajun]

I don’t know if this is true, but I read on another site that Tomlin mentioned in his post game presser that they’ll be in contact with the league office about the legality of leaping over the long snapper.
I know he can’t be hit. Not sure if he can be hurdled.

You’re not supposed to touch him on the way over, which the jumper was doing every time. Put his hand on The long snapper’s back.

Watch this video starting around 3:40. 98 lines up in the A gap (which I thought was illegal) and definitely pushes off of the long snapper. I thought fur sure that this was illegal.

https://www.dallascowboys.com/video/ste ... hts-week-9

He sure does. It was Feiler, Dotson, Kanaday and Hassenauer on the interior. If you look at all the clips, he played the A gap on both sides. However, what troubled me the most was that none of those guys outside of Kanaday ever came out of there stance on all FG/XP attempts. I'm serious. They never raise up to perform some type of wall or anything. They literally stayed in their stance. On the one the Cowgirls almost blocked, half of the Cowgirls right side had crossed and I don't understand how you let that happen multiple times and again guys are still in their stance.

How does this happen and the coaches did nothing? Why does Smith have a job?

[stillcajun]

The only time I remember our IOL getting push in short yardage was with a different RG. Who is now on the bench.

Exactly. said it in another thread that Dotson should be starting of Feiler. I don't know if DeCastro is fully recovered yet but not having Dotson out there is hindering this run game.

It's not Fieler who's underwhelming in the straight ahead run game, it's the other G.

Again not saying DeCastro was lights out but I saw multiple times where Feiler and Pouncey (more so Pouncey) were pushed back like they were on skates especially on short yardage. I do agree with you that right side was destroying guys when Dotson was in there.

[bradshaw2ben]

All three current interior starters look great on the move and when given angles. They're just no in-a-phone-booth types, especially Pouncey. Feiler has played pretty well and Decastro is Decastro... it's just tough to have a guy on the bench who'd be starting for like 25 teams in the league AND be struggling to run the football.

[Orangesteel]

I go back and forth with this one; funny thing is the Vikings - Seahawks game a few weeks ago presented almost the exact same situation with a different outcome. Vikes went for it on 4th and 1 and failed because they didn’t want to give the ball back to Wilson; understandably so. They ended up winning after Wilson drove them down the field.

I probably would have kicked the FG in our case, though the glaring variable absent the Vikes/Hawks example is that Crawford found a way to skirt the rules and leap over our snapper. Would I go kick the FG and challenge Gilbert to take them the length of the field with no timeouts up 8? I like those odds. But Crawford could have damn well blocked that FG and who knows what would have happened.

Tough call. With the Crawford variable I think Tomlin was correct. He was also understandably pissed that the refs were allowing Crawford’s leap; it’s blatantly against the rules unless he doesn’t make any contact whatsoever with the snapper.

[COR-TEN]

Can some of the more knowledgeable posters comment on the spacing of the FG/XP formation? It hasn't been commented on or is it more danny smiff hate. . . I've been noticing in the games that followed the steelers seemed spread wide, allowing the defender to jump the gap. I've seen other formations where they are much tighter, making it more difficult to jump the gap.

It also seems silly to me arguing a percentage point or two (or four) in win percentages over decisions when the error factor (one player missing an assignment, tendencies, game flow etc) outweighs any conclusions that can be drawn. Too many variables to contend with to make 5 percentage points differential that important.

[DP39]

All three current interior starters look great on the move and when given angles. They're just no in-a-phone-booth types, especially Pouncey. Feiler has played pretty well and Decastro is Decastro... it's just tough to have a guy on the bench who'd be starting for like 25 teams in the league AND be struggling to run the football.

IIRC, and I'm really not trying to be argumentative here, but didn't you all but guarantee that Feiler would an All-Pro if he moved to G this year (both mauling and pass protection) -- maybe the best in the league?

If that was you, what do think has happened to him this year to cause his just "pretty well" play? I agree his play has been pretty average actually -- not bad, but no where near All-Pro. Actually, he's seemed to miss his target when on the move a decent amount this year, more than I thought he would.

[swissvale72]

Put me in the camp of being okay going for it, but putting the ball in bens hands for that purpose. I'll use the equivalency of Chuck noll eschewing a punt in the closing seconds of SB X, as his kicking game sucked that day and he trusted his defense. And similarly, the Cowboys once again, we're throwing into the end zone to try to win the game on the final play.

Pick up a yard and the game is over. Don't, and Dallas has to drive 80 yards in 38 seconds with no timeouts. At the time, I wasn't worried, but yes, got worried real quick when they were out to midfield one play into their drive!!

But yeah, I was okay with the decision not to kick.

Oh...and who would have ever though I would compare mike Tomlin favorably to Chuck noll, even to this limited context!!!

[stinger8]

The only time I remember our IOL getting push in short yardage was with a different RG. Who is now on the bench.

Exactly. said it in another thread that Dotson should be starting of Feiler. I don't know if DeCastro is fully recovered yet but not having Dotson out there is hindering this run game.

It's not Fieler who's underwhelming in the straight ahead run game, it's the other G.

If a player is being paid high end dough, you have to provide high end play. If not you have to make changes, where possible. Managing the cap and getting maximum return is a huge part of todays game, a part that Colbert consistently struggles with. If Decastro consistently struggles this year try to move on (dead money could be an issue). Pouncey should never have gotten his last contract, if he could get it in the open market, take your comp pick and call Dr. Cody Wallace up

[Drummer Boy]

If a player is being paid high end dough, you have to provide high end play. If not you have to make changes, where possible. Managing the cap and getting maximum return is a huge part of todays game, a part that Colbert consistently struggles with. If Decastro consistently struggles this year try to move on (dead money could be an issue). Pouncey should never have gotten his last contract, if he could get it in the open market, take your comp pick and call Dr. Cody Wallace up

We may have the deepest roster in the NFL. That is not possible if what you say is true.

[bradshaw2ben]

All three current interior starters look great on the move and when given angles. They're just no in-a-phone-booth types, especially Pouncey. Feiler has played pretty well and Decastro is Decastro... it's just tough to have a guy on the bench who'd be starting for like 25 teams in the league AND be struggling to run the football.

IIRC, and I'm really not trying to be argumentative here, but didn't you all but guarantee that Feiler would an All-Pro if he moved to G this year (both mauling and pass protection) -- maybe the best in the league?

If that was you, what do think has happened to him this year to cause his just "pretty well" play? I agree his play has been pretty average actually -- not bad, but no where near All-Pro. Actually, he's seemed to miss his target when on the move a decent amount this year, more than I thought he would.

It was me. He was great against Aaron Donald last year and was very good early this year, especially vs Houston—but he seems a little off since the TEN game. Tired now that he’s banging on the inside! Don’t know.

Yes I would characterize

[Texas Black & Gold]

Going for the 1st down to end the game was 100% the right call, but for the love of god, put it in Ben's hands.

I respectfully disagree while pleading ignorance of the math you use to support your position. I am glad it worked out in the end but successfully kicking the FG would have made it more difficult for Dallas to win. They would have had to score a TD and convert 2pts just to tie and send it into OT.

How would the "math/decision" work out if the Steelers were just up by 1, 2 or 3 points? Would you still go for it? Or would you kick the FG to increase the lead by more than 3 points?

Watching the Steelers play for many many years, I think it was out of character for them not to have kicked the FG.

[Jizz Mop]

Anyone concerned about our inability to get 1 yard with the game on the line in consecutive weeks?

Our short yardage offense sucks

How about the 3rd and 1s doing some play action?

Every team is selling out on the run against us in those situations.

Even if you went jumbo....Ebron in the flat for 1 yard off a fake to Conner? Slam dunk.

[stillthere]

I respectfully disagree while pleading ignorance of the math you use to support your position. I am glad it worked out in the end but successfully kicking the FG would have made it more difficult for Dallas to win. They would have had to score a TD and convert 2pts just to tie and send it into OT.

How would the "math/decision" work out if the Steelers were just up by 1, 2 or 3 points? Would you still go for it? Or would you kick the FG to increase the lead by more than 3 points?

Watching the Steelers play for many many years, I think it was out of character for them not to have kicked the FG.

Loved hearing Rex Ryan plead for people to put away the analytics sheets and get the 8 point lead was refreshing this week. I/We understand get the first down the game is over but getting the 8 point lead makes the game essentially over as well.

Anyone concerned about our inability to get 1 yard with the game on the line in consecutive weeks?

Our short yardage offense sucks

How about the 3rd and 1s doing some play action?

Every team is selling out on the run against us in those situations.

Even if you went jumbo....Ebron in the flat for 1 yard off a fake to Conner? Slam dunk.

I am not overly concerned with the short yardage game. I did not like them running off tackle instead of up the gut which I would argue is Conner's strength as opposed to an outside run. Like you said even if they go jumbo go ahead and bring Mondeaux in to play FB in that scenario if you are determined to run it.

One other thing that we will not have to worry about is next time they run that jet sweep with Claypool he will not slide now that it has been brought to his attention that going out of bounds after the first down ends the game as well. He is praised as having very good football knowledge and not making the same mistake twice.