PFF: Najee 19th best RB in the league

[tbsteel]

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-running-ba ... nfl-season

I honestly think Najee is a little high here. If we're just talking one season, I'd rather have Mixon, Khalil Herbert, and David Montgomery over Najee. Bijan Robinson isn't on this list yet, but he's a no-brainer for me. And if Javante Williams were healthy, I'd roll with him as well.

Too slow and indecisive at the LOS since he lacks any natural vision, has no explosive burst or agility with jump cuts that take an eternity, can't get the edge on outside runs, and can't separate from LBs as a receiver (he averages lower yards per catch than Benny Snell and Leonard Fournette).

This offense would function markedly better, would be more explosive, and higher scoring with Jaylen Warren as our lead RB with Najee as the short yardage specialist and goal line guy. It's not a perfect comparison, but reminds me of Parker vs. Bettis in '05.

[Kodiak.]

Najee is durable, well-rounded and protects the ball. That separates him from most other average, plug-n-play backs.

But there are only a handful of backs that I think truly make the players around them better. Najee is not one of those, but maybe among the best of the rest?

So, sure, you could argue Najee is average and there are 20 backs better than him, but also that there are maybe only a handful better than him.

So on a rookie deal, I'd say Najee is pretty good value. As a late R1 pick, maybe not. But I'm now firmly in the camp that an R1 or R2 on a RB is a waste of draft capital. The only reason to take one there is you're hoping to land a special back because the rest of your offense isn't that good. Like many similar cases, it's overspending trying to compensate for misses elsewhere. And probably not the best way to build a team unless you're close to being a contender.

[franco32]

19th is about right...maybe could push him to 15th or so if he is fully healthy.

Bottom line---the more Warren was mixed in there last year, the better the offense moved.

[Orangesteel]

No argument here. He’s MID.

[K_C_]

He ran great once his foot was healthy and with the addition of two huge upgrades on the o-line and Darnell Washington’s presence, along with Kenny being much more comfortable throwing the ball and methinks Najee could go up as high as about 12 or so after this season.

Happy to have him.

[Deebo]

Warren is a better back than Harris

[Ice]

No argument here. He’s MID.

Up to this point, it's a pretty difficult eval to argue. I really liked Javonte Williams that draft year, but Najee is a Steeler, so I'll hope for some improvement behind a better line.

[franco32]

Even with easier defenses down the stretch and better Oline play, Najee still had a 3.8 avg with only ONE run over 20 yards and none over 40. That's by far the worst among the top two dozen rushers.

He simply can't get to the next level with enough speed and leaves yards on the ground. Love his effort and power but the lack of explosion keeps him as a middle of the pack RB at best.

My biggest problem with Najee is that his lack of burst leads to WAY more 3rd downs in a series than we need to have.

[Scunge]

I think with this new revamped offensive line and the addition of a monster TE who can be a dominant blocker, that Harris and Warren can dramatically improve what they did last year AFTER the Bye.

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

People point to how Najee Harris averaged a pedestrian 3.8 yards a carry last season, but what did he do AFTER the Bye?

Harris in those last 9 games, had 164 carries for 673 yards, 4.1 yards per carry and 6 rushing touchdowns. I thought the last month of the season, the last 4 games, he was reading blocks better than he ever had, and I did see some jump cuts and subtle moves where he was eluding people. He showed more instinctive running, which I thought he was incapable of. Before the bye, in those first 8 games, Harris was averaging 3.3 yards per carry. Yeah, he had the foot injury, and yeah, the offensive line had to gain experience and gel, but I think that is quite impressive to go from 3.3 yards per carry to 4.1 yards per carry.

As a receiver, Harris went from 4.6 yards per catch in those first 8 games, then AFTER the BYE, to 6.9 yards per carry in the last 9 games.

Now, one of the things that happened AFTER the BYE, was Jaylin Warren cemented himself as the #2 RB and would spell Harris on 3rd downs. Warren AFTER the BYE, was quite amazing in those last 7 games. I say 7, because he left the Bengals game early, and then was inactive the next week against Indy. He missed for all intents and purposes two games.

So, in roughly 7 games after the bye, Warren had 48 carries, for 226 yards, 4.7 yards per carry with 1 TD, and had 16 catches for 126 yards, a 7.9 yard per catch average.

The two combined put up very good production and made a great one-two punch, they complement each other well. I don't know if Warren can take the punishment of being a full-time starter and I think the reason Harris became more effective AFTER the BYE, is because he had Warren who could take some of the snaps/touches off of him. It was always stupid for Tomlin to think that one RB can handle the entire load.

Last season, AFTER the BYE, Tomlin seemed to finally realize that Harris/Warren perfect mixture of snaps and usage. And I would even take it a step further, they also included the Fullback position as Derek Watt was involved in short yardage situations to pick up first downs. He had 9 carries for 21 yards rushing, 2.3 yards per carry. Now, yes, out of context that doesn't look very impressive. But they all came in short yardage situations where they wanted to pick up the first down. In those 9 carries, Watt got the first down 8 times and scored a TD.

Now with Connor Heyward slated to be that Fullback/H-back, that is a compelling 3 man committee of RBs. Harris/Warren/Heyward, the three of them together can be more dangerous and productive and versatile than simply giving a single RB the ball, giving that single RB all of the catches.

Harris had 74 catches as a rookie. Last year it was down to 41. This season it should go even lower. Figure 75 catches between the three of them, 30, 25, 20. In terms of rushing say something like 2,500 yards rushing as a team, last season it was 2073.

Now, I listen to dumb media types that say Najee should be good to go and let him get all the carries again for 2023. It is like fans, people, media types want Harris to rush for 2,000 yards and are more concerned about fantasy football stats.

The Steelers should continue and expand the distribution of touches to the RBs for 2023. Out of 2,500 team rushing yards, figure, 300 yards for the QBs, and 200 yards for the WRs. That leaves you with 2,000 yards. Figure 1,300 yards for Najee, 600 yards for Warren and 100 yards for Heyward.

Having a diversified backfield, where Harris is more rested and fresh as we enter the postseason, as EVERYBODY is more rested, is the key to having deep playoff runs and getting a championship.

But back to the main point of this thread, as a complete RB, runner, receiver and blocker in pass protection, I think Harris can be as high as 8-10. I don't think he will ever put up the gaudy stat lines, have the tremendous splash plays, 50 yard TD runs, etc, that sway people's opinions.

[SteelerDayTrader]

Harris and Warren are not enough at RB

Still need another RB

[Scunge]

That 3rd RB is almost pointless and ONLY becomes a concern if there are major, disastrous injuries.

Benny Snell was the 3rd RB for 2022 and he had 90 yards rushing and 2 catches, only played 42 snaps on offense.

Kallen Ballage was the 3rd RB in 2021 and he had 36 yards rushing and 2 catches, only played 65 snaps on offense.

Anthony McFarland was the 3rd RB in 2020, he had 113 yards rushing and 6 catches, only played 89 snaps on offense.

And now with the fair catch rule on kickoffs, having a fast 3rd RB who can be that kickoff return man is less attractive.

I see no problem with having Alfonzo Graham and McFarland competing for that 3rd RB spot.

To actually go out and sign a vet RB to be the 3rd RB, to spend more money than you should for someone who has averaged 65 snaps the past 3 seasons is lunacy. 65 snaps out of 1,000 on offense in a given year.

I would rather pay Alfonzo Graham $750,000 to be that 3rd RB. If anything though, the core special teams snaps that Snell did is what they are looking to replace, not RB skills per se. Benny Snell had almost 1,000 special teams snaps the past 4 years, 600 coming in the last 2 years. He was a 300 snap count player on special teams. If the Steelers do add a RB to the competition along with Graham and AntMac, it will be a meh RB who is a better special teams player.

[SteelerDayTrader]

That 3rd RB is almost pointless and ONLY becomes a concern if there are major, disastrous injuries.

Totally false. Particularly so for a team like the Steelers that venerates rock pounding

No need bother reading the rest of you TLDR screedle

[bradshaw2ben]

That 3rd RB is almost pointless and ONLY becomes a concern if there are major, disastrous injuries.

Benny Snell was the 3rd RB for 2022 and he had 90 yards rushing and 2 catches, only played 42 snaps on offense.

Kallen Ballage was the 3rd RB in 2021 and he had 36 yards rushing and 2 catches, only played 65 snaps on offense.

Anthony McFarland was the 3rd RB in 2020, he had 113 yards rushing and 6 catches, only played 89 snaps on offense.

And now with the fair catch rule on kickoffs, having a fast 3rd RB who can be that kickoff return man is less attractive.

I see no problem with having Alfonzo Graham and McFarland competing for that 3rd RB spot.

To actually go out and sign a vet RB to be the 3rd RB, to spend more money than you should for someone who has averaged 65 snaps the past 3 seasons is lunacy. 65 snaps out of 1,000 on offense in a given year.

I would rather pay Alfonzo Graham $750,000 to be that 3rd RB. If anything though, the core special teams snaps that Snell did is what they are looking to replace, not RB skills per se. Benny Snell had almost 1,000 special teams snaps the past 4 years, 600 coming in the last 2 years. He was a 300 snap count player on special teams. If the Steelers do add a RB to the competition along with Graham and AntMac, it will be a meh RB who is a better special teams player.

It’s only almost pointless in Pittsburgh, where they prefer to give most of the touches/snaps to fewer RBs than most NFL teams do.

[bradshaw2ben]

@Scunge

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

[Kodiak.]

@Scunge

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

Yeah, I'm not optimistic that Canada's offense suddenly turns into a racehorse.

I'm willing to bet the approach remains a 3-down offense with the goal of 12-14 play drives. And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

[SteelerDayTrader]

@Scunge

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

Yeah, I'm not optimistic that Canada's offense suddenly turns into a racehorse.

I'm willing to bet the approach remains a 3-down offense with the goal of 12-14 play drives. And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

I’d like to believe that but……

I think Kenny will show some real improvement against some of the bad teams/coaches and I suspect that will be sold as the reason they keep Canada

I think the better teams/coaches will feast on a sophomore qb

[Kodiak.]

I think the better teams/coaches will feast on a sophomore qb

The better teams have been feasting on Tomlin for years. That is, on the increasingly less common occasions we sneak into the playoffs.

[Jobu]

@Scunge

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

Yeah, I'm not optimistic that Canada's offense suddenly turns into a racehorse.

I'm willing to bet the approach remains a 3-down offense with the goal of 12-14 play drives. And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

I watched Scouts Eye with Matt Williamson this morning, and he talked about the difference in Steelers usage of 11 and 12 personnel before and after the bye. It was significant. 11 personnel usage dropped from something like 78% to 59% and 12 personnel rose from about 16% to 27% at the bye, which was also around the time when Chase Claypool was traded. Before the bye, the Steelers offense was ranked 28th in EPA (expected points added). After the bye their EPA rose to 5th. Now of course there were other factors going into this, that Williamson pointed out, the QBs improving and becoming more comfortable, the schedule getting softer, etc.
Take all of that and add in a first round LT and massive TE that excels in run blocking, the handwriting is on the wall.

[Jobu]

And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

Yep, this could be Canada’s last year. The offensive approach will not change.

[DP39]

@Scunge

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

Yeah, I'm not optimistic that Canada's offense suddenly turns into a racehorse.

I'm willing to bet the approach remains a 3-down offense with the goal of 12-14 play drives. And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

I watched Scouts Eye with Matt Williamson this morning, and he talked about the difference in Steelers usage of 11 and 12 personnel before and after the bye. It was significant. 11 personnel usage dropped from something like 78% to 59% and 12 personnel rose from about 16% to 27% at the bye, which was also around the time when Chase Claypool was traded. Before the bye, the Steelers offense was ranked 28th in EPA (expected points added). After the bye their EPA rose to 5th. Now of course there were other factors going into this, that Williamson pointed out, the QBs improving and becoming more comfortable, the schedule getting softer, etc.
Take all of that and add in a first round LT and massive TE that excels in run blocking, the handwriting is on the wall.

Thanks for in info, Jobu.

This goes along with what I posted right after the draft: In '23, get ready for the Steelers to be in 12 (and on occasion 13) personnel close to 30-35% of the time -- near a league high.

[Jobu]

Yeah, I'm not optimistic that Canada's offense suddenly turns into a racehorse.

I'm willing to bet the approach remains a 3-down offense with the goal of 12-14 play drives. And I'll predict this will be Canada's last year.

I watched Scouts Eye with Matt Williamson this morning, and he talked about the difference in Steelers usage of 11 and 12 personnel before and after the bye. It was significant. 11 personnel usage dropped from something like 78% to 59% and 12 personnel rose from about 16% to 27% at the bye, which was also around the time when Chase Claypool was traded. Before the bye, the Steelers offense was ranked 28th in EPA (expected points added). After the bye their EPA rose to 5th. Now of course there were other factors going into this, that Williamson pointed out, the QBs improving and becoming more comfortable, the schedule getting softer, etc.
Take all of that and add in a first round LT and massive TE that excels in run blocking, the handwriting is on the wall.

Thanks for in info, Jobu.

This goes along with what I posted right after the draft: In '23, get ready for the Steelers to be in 12 (and on occasion 13) personnel close to 30-35% of the time -- near a league high.

I wholeheartedly agree. And I’m expecting to see (13) Friermuth, Gentry, and Washington on the field more than usual.

[bradshaw2ben]

Something to keep in mind: EPA does not adjust for the strength of opponent, so there can be some false positives (or negatives) there.

[Kodiak.]

I’m expecting to see (13) Friermuth, Gentry, and Washington on the field more than usual.

That sounds like a real fucking offensive juggernaut.

[SteelerDayTrader]

I’m expecting to see (13) Friermuth, Gentry, and Washington on the field more than usual.

That sounds like a real fucking offensive juggernaut.

Lol

[Jobu]

I’m expecting to see (13) Friermuth, Gentry, and Washington on the field more than usual.

That sounds like a real fucking offensive juggernaut.

Just think about all those third downs…

[Scunge]

@Scunge

After the Bye!! AFTER THE BYE!!!!!

That is my rallying cry for how you should look at last season in terms of the offense.

If only those beaten up and given up teams would show up again, this time for a full season!

Well, I have looked at this year's schedule and to me it is buttery soft and works out in the Steeler's favor. Also, I am so sick and tired of arguing about last year's schedule, you can only line up and play against who is on your schedule. Only in Pittsburgh do we have people put asteriks next to what we did on offense, the win total, the rushing offense, because they don't like the difficulty of the schedule!!!

So, okay, we play our first game against the 49ers and say we win 27-13. The He-Man Steelers Haters Club will put an asterisk by the win and say we got lucky, we would have lost had we played in San Francisco, would have lost if Brock Purdy had been able to play, would have lost if Bosa hadn't gotten food poisoning after that mornings breakfast, blah, blah, blah.

[Thrillsseeker]

I think 19 is too low.

I think he is underrated.

I think he has a great year and will get the least amount of credit for it. It’ll be the line this, the line that, the blocking TE(’s) etc which will help of course but getting hit in the backfield and sometimes when taking the handoff was a fuckin travesty. His foot injury dIdn’t help him nor did the OC or the shit o-line we had.

He’s better than he’s gotten credit for.

[beerbrother]

Harris and Warren are not enough at RB

Still need another RB

How about a 31 year old RB, former Pro-Bowler, wants to play for the Steelers.

I've still got so much juice. I might even, I don't know, we'll see what I do with Pittsburgh or something, I just might come back for a preseason game or something, just to show people I got juice... I run a 4.4 right now.

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/05/leveo ... ason-game/

[SteelerDayTrader]

Harris and Warren are not enough at RB

Still need another RB

How about a 31 year old RB, former Pro-Bowler, wants to play for the Steelers.

I've still got so much juice. I might even, I don't know, we'll see what I do with Pittsburgh or something, I just might come back for a preseason game or something, just to show people I got juice... I run a 4.4 right now.

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/05/leveo ... ason-game/

Absolutely not imo

This team has ALOT of issues

Not the least of which is developing a young core that takes being a professional seriously

We need guys who practice and study extra of their own volition not guys who see the Steelers as secondary

[Jobu]

Harris and Warren are not enough at RB

Still need another RB

How about a 31 year old RB, former Pro-Bowler, wants to play for the Steelers.

I've still got so much juice. I might even, I don't know, we'll see what I do with Pittsburgh or something, I just might come back for a preseason game or something, just to show people I got juice... I run a 4.4 right now.

https://steelersdepot.com/2023/05/leveo ... ason-game/

Good one!