How the steelers draft will unfold

[lifelongsteel]

The Steelers are extremely predictable in the draft. They have a plan that doesn't change much. Colbert tells the world what he's going to do. We draft a high number of visiting players.

Here is how I see it unfolding. (not who i would pick, but who i think they will pick)

Rd1: In the first round the steelers are looking for BPA defined usually by highest floor. The only position off the board, as proclaimed by Colbert, is QB. A lot of players mocked to the steelers will be "do not draft" players for the first round. Let's look at players who i've seen mocked the steelers that i don't feel will make the cut
- K. Johnson - doesn't fit the mold for steelers corner. not great value at 22
- B. Dupree - high ceiling low floor guy. too much risk
- M. Peters - character flaws are ok in R2. will be off board in R1 (unless there is something unknown about the U-dub business)
- Jalen Collins - not enough starts or production in college
- Arik Armstead - not enough college production. Reminds me a lot of Tuitt actually
- Odighizuwa - not enough college production. not a great scheme fit

With those guys gone, I think their first round board will look something like this in no specific order (note players like Waynes and Shelton not included as there is almost no chance they make it to 22):
- La'el Collins
- Landon Collins
- Malcolm Brown
- Shane Ray
- Vic Beasley
- Brandon Scherff
- Devante Parker

Hard to say how they value those 6 and also which of the 6 will be available at 22. My sense is that they will have the choice of La'el, Landon and Malcolm Brown.

The choice will be La'el Collins

In the 2nd round they still want production, but they aren't going to give on value. They are willing to take a little bit more of a character risk if need be, or take a lower floor/higher ceiling type of player. Need begins to come into play more, so other positions like RB and ILB will not be selected. The 2nd round board will look something like this:
- Kevin Johnson
- Marcus Peters
- Laken Tomlinson
- Nate Orchard
- Jaelen Strong
- Danielle Hunter
- Eli Harold
- Maxx Williams

The steelers will end up choosing Orchard over Hunter and Strong. The rest will be gone prior to 56

In the 3rd round need for CB becomes acute and it will become a must draft position. This is fine because there is QB value in R3/R4.

The Steelers will have a choice to make between Doran Grant and Steven Nelson. Nelson will be the pick.

In round 4 they are open to taking more chances, especially with OLB and CB needs met. R4 board may look something like this:
- Jesse James
- Alex Carter
- Davis Tull
- Henry Anderson
- Senquez Golson
- Adrian Amos

As much as they like the 2 corners, with Nelson in the fold they will go another direction here, choosing between Anderson and James.

All else being equal they go big. Anderson will be the choice.

That's rounds 1-4. Here is the full draft with commentary on the last 4

1.22 La'el Collins, G LSU
2.56 Nate Orchard, OLB Utah
3.87 Steven Nelson, CB Oregon St.
4.121 Henry Anderson, DE Stanford
5.160 Adrian Amos, S Penn St. (they get luck and Amos slips a little. 2 way safety fits the mold)
6.198 Matt Jones, RB Florida (ditto for Jones, seems to be clearly they back they like late)
6.212 Max Valles, OLB Virginia (can draft for upside here)
7.239 CJ Uzomah TE, Auburn (They seem to like him. Can block right away and grow into a receiver)

Though these aren't exactly the picks i would want in those spots, i would be pretty happy with this draft.

[Jobu]

That's not a bad draft, and I can't argue with your reasoning...Steelers way and all. But....
If they draft a fucking guard in the 1st round, I'll be shopping for a new TV on Friday!

[bradshaw2ben]

I agree with your rd 1 reasoning... but A. I doubt La'el Collins comes anywhere near 22 and B. given those choices, Landon Collins is almost certainly the player they would feel has highest floor.

I gave my reasons on podcast for why I think that's a shitty strategy for a team that basically never drafts in the top 10: you end up with a solid team but no pizzazz/playmakers/outliers, unless you get lucky later, and even then it's likely at positions where there is a deep pool, like WR, OL, CB, RB.

You're going to struggle to get pass rushers if you don't get a top tier ceiling guy in round one, or go for an unproven guy with traits in Rd3 or later. That 2nd rd edge rusher business is a proven fail.

[cop1211]

I wouldn't be mad at that. Just a little bummed with a guard in the first. I'd say they would go with S Collins because of the state of the defense. Then guard/tackle in the 5th.

[bradshaw2ben]

Also, they may say they draft BPA in the 1st, but they draft for need. The only way they're draft La'el is if they see him as an upgrade at OT.

[lifelongsteel]

Also, they may say they draft BPA in the 1st, but they draft for need. The only way they're draft La'el is if they see him as an upgrade at OT.

Depends on how you define BPA.

My guess is the steelers equation for first round BPA is something like (Floor x2) + (Ceiling x1) for all non excluded positions (QB). With that model DeCastro, Pouncey, Heyward and J. Jones all look pretty good. Shazier i'm not so sure as Mosley had to have the higher floor of those 2. btw - I'm sure B2B would reverse that and double up on ceiling.

Rounds 2-4 are probably something like (Floor) + (Ceiling) + (position need rating).

by the time they get to round 5 my guess is that since floor is basically zero on almost all guys they change their equation to something like (chance player can ever start x2) + (chance player can ever contribute x1)

The result of this is that you get plus level starters in R1 (DeCastro), you get upside guys with some risk in rounds 2-4 (Bryant), and you get projects and longshots at 5th and beyond.

One other thing. I don't think the steelers share the common wisdom on positional value. Best i can tell they treat interior OL, OT, DT, DE, OLB and ILB all pretty much the same. Their tiering system seems to be something like:
- QB (just assuming)
- DL/interior line/OT
- OLB/ILB/WR
- DB/RB
- TE

[Steelafan77]

If it fell like your scenario lifelong I wouldn't be disappointed with the first two picks. Infact Collins is a great LG candidate with LT potential at the next level. Although I'm not a big Orchard fan I think the value at 56 is too good to pass up. The 3rd RND I take Eric Rowe over either Nelson or Grant. Anderson would be ideal if he lasts to the 4th RND 121st overall.

[lifelongsteel]

If it fell like your scenario lifelong I wouldn't be disappointed with the first two picks. Infact Collins is a great LG candidate with LT potential at the next level. Although I'm not a big Orchard fan I think the value at 56 is too good to pass up. The 3rd RND I take Eric Rowe over either Nelson or Grant. Anderson would be ideal if he lasts to the 4th RND 121st overall.

I didn't put Rowe on the first round board because i didn't think he's value at 22. I didn't put him in the 2nd because I feel like he'll be gone long before 56. He's not making it to the 3rd. If he does I'm with you. take him. Anderson is interesting because i think he'll be highly valued by 5-6 teams but not valued heavily by the others. He might go 3rd. He might go 5th. Mauro was the same type of player last year. A bunch of us mocked him the fourth but he wasn't drafted.

[Legacy User]

Great analysis Lifelong....thanks for the effort.

I do tend to agree with B2B that Collins will be gone well before our first, but everything else is very reasonable and solid.

[jebrick]

I just hope it is not Landon Collins. I just do not see him as either being a position of need or a transformational player. I think he ends up being a JAG at SS. I guess it depends on what Lake thinks of Shark at this time.

[SteelyourFace]

Also, they may say they draft BPA in the 1st, but they draft for need. The only way they're draft La'el is if they see him as an upgrade at OT.

This is a relatively true statement. The Tombert does tend to use R1 to fill a need. Ziggy Hood was a "need" pick. so was JJ. There are three main scenarios for Steelers recent history. 1. pick based on need. (Big Snack trade back, Heath, Timmons, Hood, Heyward, Jones) 2. trade up to get a player they covet (Santonio, Troy). 3. select a player who slides unexpectedly (Mendenhall, Pouncey?, Decastro).

not aimed at you B2B by any means b/c I know you get this. But I am sick of reading every beat writer write that the "Steelers will pick an OLB or CB" in the first round! And every damn mock draft. and every damn fan post. it is all based on a perception that the Steelers have a dire need at OLB and CB. I don't disagree the needs exist. however, I marvel at the persistent delusion that the Steelers will be able to fill an immediate need by drafting a CB or OLB in R1. it ain't gonna happen.

Ziggy Hood, JJ, Shaz, Timmons, Heyward. Which R1 defender made an impact as a rookie? the last rookie defender to make a dent in his rookie season was Big Snack. not even the great TP made a dent as a rookie.

I sincerely hope Tombert will just let the draft unfold, and take the highest rated player on their board regardless of position with the noted exception of QB (which is fine b/c I don't really like the R1 QBs anyway). There is NOT ONE position group that could NOT use an infusion of talent. not one. Just take the damn talent already. the rest will work itself out.

I've said it before and it bears repeating. If you are hell bent on drafting a (fill in the blank) in R1, that's how you end up with Troy Edwards and pass on Javon Kearse. I will never ever, as long as I live, believe Troy Edwards was rated higher on their draft board than Kearse. I hope the same mistake isn't repeated in a couple weeks.

P.S. I don't know what kind of selection resulted in The Shaz. I guess they had him rated that high??

[jebrick]

It has been rumored that they are using more of the SPARQ ratings last year. Shazier was off the charts on the SPARQ ratings. It needs to be a balance between being able to play football and athletic ability.

[SteelyourFace]

ya'll can call him Shazpussy.

I think I will henceforth refer to Mr. SPARQ as Mike Mamula II until further notice.

[Thrillsseeker]

Interesting thread/discussion.

You heard it here, the Steelers go up in this years draft in round 1, for the guy they have to have!

[lifelongsteel]

Interesting thread/discussion.

You heard it here, the Steelers go up in this years draft in round 1, for the guy they have to have!

Who do you think that guy is?

[DP39]

I've already said it multiple times...I think Tomlin wants Vic Beasley more than just about any other player. If he falls out of the top 12 or so they seriously consider the move up imo.

[bradshaw2ben]

Beasley to me is the best pass rusher-- but he's a ROLB in this system not a LOLB. Gonna move Deebo and Jarvis to left side? Hmmm.

[lifelongsteel]

I don't think we have the ammo for a significant move up. A few spots up to grab Waynes or Ray? maybe

[DP39]

Beasley to me is the best pass rusher-- but he's a ROLB in this system not a LOLB. Gonna move Deebo and Jarvis to left side? Hmmm.

Several things...

Deebo's got one more year at most imo.
Jarvis isn't terrible against the run and could possible play ROLB.
and there's Moats
I think Beasley has the frame to easily add another 10-15 lbs and get even stronger (what was his bench..35?).
With growth in an NFL weight program he could play either OL side, hell, even inside if you want to move him around. He won't lose much if any speed and his explosion could be even better.
Year one, you rotate him and send him after the QB on obvious passing downs. Probably not playing more than that first half of the year anyway.

[Thrillsseeker]

Interesting thread/discussion.

You heard it here, the Steelers go up in this years draft in round 1, for the guy they have to have!

Who do you think that guy is?

I'd love to give you a name. I am not versed in talent evaluation like some on the board are.

When I say to get their guy, I'm saying overall it'll be someone they feel will be a difference maker.

Sorry I couldn't be more precise and could be way off base, just taking a guess.

[lifelongsteel]

Interesting thread/discussion.

You heard it here, the Steelers go up in this years draft in round 1, for the guy they have to have!

Who do you think that guy is?

I'd love to give you a name. I am not versed in talent evaluation like some on the board are.

When I say to get their guy, I'm saying overall it'll be someone they feel will be a difference maker.

Sorry I couldn't be more precise and could be way off base, just taking a guess.

No worries. Was just curious. A lot of different opinions on the different edge rushers. Seems like if they made a big move it would be for an OLB.

[Ice]

1) Reach for best CB/OLB/WR/TE
2) Reach for best of whatever three are left.
3) Reach for best of whatever two are left.
4) Reach for remaining target.
5) Use ouija board.
6) Tarot.
7a) palm reading.
7b) psychic hotline.

Post-draft presser: it was BPA all the way. We don't draft for need.